Answers to ISyE 2027 Exam 1B, Fall 2003

Problem 1 Suppose an experiment has the sample space S = {a, b, c} and P ({a, b}) = 0.7, Find the probabilities of {a}, {b}, {c}. Answer. One approach is to let A = {a, b} and B = {b, c} and note that A B = S and A B = {c}. Then 1 = P (S) = P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A B) = .6 + .7 P ({c}). Consequently, P ({c}) = .3. Also, the assumptions say P ({a}) + P ({b}) = 0.7, Therefore, P ({a}) = 0.4 P ({b}) = 0.3 = P ({c}) (2) Another approach is to view (1) and P ({a}) + P ({b}) + P ({c}) = 1.0 as 3 equations in 3 unknowns, and solve them to get (2). Problem 2 A class of students consists of 10 seniors 5 juniors and 6 sophomores. Suppose that 9 of these students are chosen at random to form a study group. (a) Find the probability that the group contains 3 seniors, 3 juniors and 3 sophomores. (b) Find the probability that the group contains exactly 7 seniors. (c) Find the probability that the group contains students from only 2 of the 3 rankings (either all seniors and juniors, or all seniors and sophomores, or all juniors and sophomores). Answer.(a)
10 3 5 3 6 3

P ({b, c}) = 0.6

P ({b}) + P ({c}) = 0.6.

(1)

21 9

(b)

10 7

11 2

21 9

(c)

15 9

16 9

11 9

21 9

Problem 3 A set of 15 parts from suppliers labelled a, b, c is described by the following list, where the number is the warehouse location of the part. For instance part a4 is from supplier a and is at location 4. a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 b1 b2 b3 b4 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 A set of 4 parts out of this list of 15 is randomly chosen for processing. Find the probabilities of the following events. (a) A = all 4 parts are from supplier a. (b) B = all 4 parts are from the same supplier. (c) C = 2 parts are from supplier a and 2 parts are from supplier b. (d) D = at least one of the 4 parts is from supplier a. Answer.(a)
5 4

15 4

(b)

5 4

+1+
10 4

6 4

15 4

(c)

5 2

4 2

15 4

(d) 1 P {none from a} = 1

15 4

Problem 4 A worker puts parts on a conveyor belt one at a time to be sent to three machines labelled 1, 2, 3. Suppose the worker is to put 12 parts on the conveyor, where 5, 4 and 3 parts are destined for machines 1 2 and 3, respectively. (a) How many way can this be done (how many ways can the worker order the parts)? (b) How many way can this be done so that parts for machine 1 go rst, and parts for machine 2 go second? (c) How many way can this be done so that parts for each machine are together. Answer. This is a permutation problem comparable to the problem of scheduling parts for processing that we covered in class. The only dierence is in the wording. I mentioned during the test that you should consider the parts as distinguishable and that order is important. You should recognize that the machine assignments for the parts simply add another label to the parts. One can view this problem as putting 12 balls in a row, where 5 of the balls are black, 4 of the balls are white, and 3 balls are red. (a) 12! (b) 5!4!3! (c) (3!)5!4!3! The rst 3! is for ordering of the machines. 2

Problem 5 Suppose that 6 packages are randomly sent to 10 shipping docks. Find the probabilities of the following events: (a) A = no dock will receive more than one package. (b) B = the rst three packages are sent to dock 1. (c) C = at least one dock will receive more than one package. (d) D = all the packages go to docks 1 and 2 (no packages go to the other docks). Answer. The wording of the questions imply that this is a problem concerning sampling (choosing shipping docks) with replacement. (a) 10 9 8 7 6 5/106 (b) 103 /106 = 1/103 (c) P {C} = 1 P {A} (d) 26 /106 = 1/56 .

Problem 6 Consider Problem 5 and use set notation to describe the sets that represents the following: (a) All outcomes of the experiment. (b) Event A. (c) Event B. (d) Event D. Answer. (a) S = {(x1 , x2 , . . . , x6 ) : xi {1, . . . , 10}, i = 1, . . . , 6} (b) A = {(x1 , x2 , . . . , x6 ) : xi {1, . . . , 10}, i = 1, . . . , 6, all xi s dierent} (c) B = {(1, 1, 1, x4 , x5 , x6 ) : x4 , x5 , x6 {1, . . . , 10}} (d) D = {(x1 , x2 , . . . , x6 ) : xi {1, 2}, i = 1, . . . , 6}.