09 Feb.

09

United - States: Unemployment is soaring in January

Germany : Industrial production slumped in December

Despite a catastrophic slump in U.S. payrolls in January (-598k) and a third monthly drop in a row of
consumer credit in December (with credit cards –7.8 %), U.S. stocks rose sharply as investors bet
on a rapid passage of the Senate's economic stimulus bill

US unemployment rate and US employees on nonfarm payrolls

since 1970

! "#$% & $' $'()*! ")%*$##& +' ! "#$%! ', *),

Source : Bureau of Labor statistics

Change in Nonfarm payrolls reached -598 000 in January sharply higher than expected ( forecast -540
000) and unemployment rate climbed to 7.6% in the United-States. These gloomy employment data
underlined the deepness of the recession hitting the country… (see page 3).

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 8280,6 3,70% -5,65% EUR/USD 1,2910 0,54% -7,57%
S&P 500 868,6 5,30% -3,84% EUR/JPY 117,60 -2,43% -7,12%
Nasdaq 1591,7 7,88% 0,93% USD/JPY 91,10 -1,85% 0,54%
CAC 40 3122,8 5,01% -2,96% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4644,6 7,06% -3,44% Brent $/b 45,4 0,35% 8,93%
Eurostoxx 50 2343,7 4,86% -4,25% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 198,5 3,93% 0,09% Gold $/oz 902,6 -0,35% 2,30%
FTSE 100 4291,9 3,78% -3,21% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7969,0 1,03% -10,05% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,11
Shanghai Comp 2224,7 9,57% 22,18% Overnight 0,20 1,03 0,11
Sensex (India) 9433,5 -1,31% -2,22% 3 Months 0,27 1,02 0,25
MICEX (Russia) 656,1 4,99% 5,90% 10 Years** 2,96 3,36 1,32
Bovespa (Brasil) 42755,5 8,79% 13,86% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
 -

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner unveils the plan to overhaul the $700 billion financial-rescue program.
The US Senate is expected to debate its version of the American recovery and investment plan that was agreed in the
House of Representatives last week
President Barack Obama addresses the nation on the economy.
Morgan Stanley's annual meeting.
China issues January trade data.
A three-day summit of Israel's decision-makers, focusing on the balance of national security with regard to international
relations, society, economics and the Jewish world, begins in Herzliya
Europe's biggest sport sponsorship business conference begins in Munich
Super Return, a three-day European private equity and venture capital summit, opens in Berlin
The UK banking bill reaches its report stage in the House of Lords today and tomorrow
World Ski Championship (Val d’Isère, France) Fev 3rd – 15th

Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous

00.50 am Japan Monetary Stock M3 YoY January 0,8% YoY 0,8% YoY
00.50 am Japan Monetary Stock M2 YoY January 1,8% YoY 1,8% YoY
00.50 am Japan Machine orders December -8,6%,-33% YoY -16,2%,-27,7% YoY
00.50 am Japan Bank lending ( including trust) January 3,8% YoY 3,7% YoY
05.30 am Japan Bankrupties January 24,1% YoY
07.00 am Japan Machine tool orders ( préliminairy) January -71,8% YoY
08.00 am Germany Trade balance December € 8.2 billion € 9.7 billion
08.00 am Germany Current account December € 7.5 billion € 8.6 billion
08.00 am Germany Exportations December -4.0% MoM -10,8% MoM
08.00 am Germany Importations December -3.9 % MoM - 5.8 % MoM
08.30 am France Bank of France business sentiment December 68 66
10.30 am Euro area Sentix investor confidence February - 31.5 -34,4

.- - /- 0

Results U.S auto plants at risk

Barclays / HeidelbergCement / NYSE Euronext La Tribune, p 5
Gloom drives central -bank actions
The Wall Street Journal, p 2
Obama raises pressure on US lawmakers to pass
stimulus bill
Financial Times, p 2
Obama finalise ses plans d’aide pour l’économie et la
finance
Les Echos, p 7
Automobile : l’Etat avance 6 milliards
Le Figaro économie, p 21

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 Economic data preview

No economic data due in the United States

Watch in the Germany the release of the Trade balance due at 08.00 am . The German trade surplus is expected to shrink as the
recession is hitting its main business foreign partners, reducing widely the demand for German goods abroad, despite the drop in energy
prices which will reduce the German energetic bill./JB

ate

ECONOMY
UNITED - STATES: UNEMPLOYMENT IS SOARING IN JANUARY
Change in Nonfarm payrolls reached -598 000 in January sharply higher than expected ( forecast -540 000) and unemployment rate
climbed to 7.6% in the United-States. These gloomy employment data underlined the deepness of the recession hitting the country. Indeed
as domestic and foreign demand are strongly degreasing due respectively to the credit crunch and to the global recession in the
industrialized countries, companies are massively cutting jobs . The risk is to fell in the follow vicious circle: rise of unemployment , drop of
purchase power ,decline of consumption ,fall of household demand generating a cut in investments and a rise of unemployment. In such
case of figure the offer will be higher than the demand leading to a deflation situation increasing unemployment as companies will adjust
their work force. In the mean time and unexpectedly average hourly earning are still growing in January at ( 0.3%+3.9% YoY), but no doubt
that this will not last long as the unemployment rate is soaring.

UNITED - STATES: CONSUMER CREDIT FELL IN DECEMBER

Consumer credit fell for the fourth time in five months in December at ( -$6.5 billions),almost twice as much as expected ( -$3.5 billions) but
less that its lowest level of November ( -$11.0 billions). This sharp drop is mainly explained by the bank crisis generating a credit crunch in
the United -States. Indeed recession is deepening and restrictions on bank lending crimped purchases as a vicious circle as household
spending represent 71% of the GDP in the United-States.

FRANCE: TRACE DEFICIT WIDEN TO RECORD

France trade balance dropped of € - 2.5 billion in December ( forecast € - 5.7 billion) widening the deficit to a record € 55.7 billion from a
deficit of € 40.6 billion euros in 2007. This drop of the French trade deficit is mainly explained by the slump of the exportations due to
global economic recession reducing the demand for French goods abroad and by the rise of the energy prices in the first half of the year .
Indeed oil prices reached $147 a barrel in July 2008 and despite their sharp drop since then ( oil price have been roughly divided by five in
five months). As most of the industrialized countries are facing a recession situation , consumer spending are declining , companies are
cutting jobs , unemployment is rising generating an offer widely higher than the demand which will most likely led toward a deflation
situation .

GERMANY : INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SLUMPED IN DECEMBER

German ‘industrial production dropped sharply in December. Indeed output plunged 4.6% since last month representing the sharpest
decline since May 1989( forecast -2.5%) and the annual growth rate was terrible at -12.0% ( forecast -9.6% YoY). The breakdown by
sector revealed a drop of 8.2% in intermediate goods, a drop of 5.3% of manufacturing goods and a decline of 4.9 % of capital goods. This
slump of industrial production underline the sharp decline of the German economy which is strongly affected by the weak global
demand./JB

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Despite a catastrophic slump in U.S. payrolls in January (-598k) and a third monthly drop in a
row of consumer credit in December (with credit cards –7.8 %), U.S. stocks rose sharply as
investors bet on a rapid passage of the Senate's economic stimulus bill
Despite a catastrophic slump in U.S. payrolls in January (-598k) and a third monthly drop in a row of consumer
credit in December (with credit cards –7.8 %), U.S. stocks rose sharply as investors bet on a rapid passage of
the Senate's economic stimulus bill. AIG (+4.00%) and Citigroup (+10.76%) gave the Treasury the least bang for
its buck among firms bailed out by the federal government, according to a report expected to be released by the
Congressional Oversight Panel. For every $100 spent on stock at those firms, the government received $41 in value.
All told, the government overpaid for bank stocks by about $78 billion, according to the report. US officials are
examining ways to convert government stakes in banks into ordinary shares as banks accumulate losses. Banks were
up: Bank of America +26.65 %, U.S. Bancorp +8.01 %, Wells Fargo +17.64 %, American Express +5.25 %, JP
Morgan +12.59 %. Other financials (BlackRock +5.34 %, State Street +10.71 %, Visa +3.11 %, AllState +5.19 %)
and homebuilders(DR Horton +13.26 %, Lennar +10.98 %, Centex +14.58 %, KB Home +13.56 %, Pulte Homes
+9.40 %, Toll Bros +9.29 %) were sharply up. Oil companies (ExxonMobil +1.21 %, Chevron +2.25 %,
ConocoPhilips +2.20 %) and oil services (Schlumberger +1.66 %, Transocean +3.25 %, Halliburton +2.98 %,
Nabors +4.14 %) were up while refiners were mixed: Valero +0.13 %, Sunoco –3.16 %. Basic resources were up as
well: US Steel +9.64 %, Alcoa +4.22 %, Nucor +3.71 %, Newmont Mining +1.52 %. Retailers were oon the upside:
Target +2.26 %, Costco +3.15 %, Wal Mart +2.20 %, J.C. Penney +5.04 %, Nordstrom +8.74 %, Macy’s +10.86 %,
Walgreen +2.14 %, Supervalu +4.19 %. Home Depot (+5.04 %) eliminated senior leadership posts in home services
and human resources as part of its restructuring announced last week.
Techs (Motorola +5.43 %, Cisco +4.22 %, Microsoft +3.26 %, Adobe +3.78 %, Hewlett-Packard +5.02 %, Apple
+3.38 %), semiconductors (Sun Microsystems +4.56 %, Texas Instruments +3.21 %, Nvidia +5.45 %, National
1+2,%
Semiconductor +4.45 %), internet (Google +4.96 %, Amazon.com +5.33 %, eBay +3.18 %, Yahoo! +0.89 %), telcos
)*3 ,& (AT&T +3.70 %, Verizon +1.70 %, Sprint +6.47 %), pharmaceuticals (Merck +2.23 %, Pfizer +2.34 %), hotels &
leisure (Starwood +3.10 %, Wynn Resorts +5.53 %, MGM Mirage +6.05 %, Las Vegas Sands +8.95 %), consumer
stocks and food (Nike +3.14 %;, Coca-Cola +2.01 %, Altria +2.98 %, Starbucks +4.05 %, Yum Brands +2.70 %,
Archer Daniels Midland +3.56 %) were up. Ford (+0.52 %) might have to feed its pension fund $4bn because of a
2008 shortfall, which could bring the US automaker to a federal bailout. General Motors (-0.70 %) declined while
industrials were up (General Electric +2.30 %, 3M +1.63 %, United Technologies +2.04 %, Deere +5.47 %,
Caterpillar +5.28 %) and defence was mixed: Raytheon –2.53 %; Northrop Grumman –3.63 %, General Dynamics
+1.74 %. NewsCorp (+3.09 %) said quarterly revenue declined 8.4 % at $7.87bn ($8.39bn exp.) with net loss at
$6.4bn ($832m gain n-1) on $8.4bn impairment charges, operating –42 %Cash balance is sufficient to pay all
maturities through 2015, sees no acquisitions target. Cuts 2009 operating income, should be down by 30 % against
previously in low to mid-teens. Walt Disney (+3.96 %) and Viacom (+4.98 %) rose. Biogen (-1.50 %) said quarterly
revenue rose 19% at $1.07bn ($1.086 exp.) with net profit up 2.7 % at $206.7m ($201.2m n-1) with $0.08/share
impairment charge Sees 2009 operating costs between $2-2.1bn and 2009 revenue growth in high single digit
(including the expected decline in the Rituxan) Cash and equivalent at $2.3bn Sees FY 2009 EPS above $4.00 ($3.97
exp.).

AFTER SESSION : Bank Of America +3.92 %, Citigroup +2.81 %, Motorola +3.09 %, Wells Fargo +1.83 %
This morning (08.00 GMT) INDEX FUTURES for March expiry were down : DJIA -0.94 %, S&P 500 –1.12 % %,
Nasdaq –0.78. %./JFV
Treasury prices declined Friday, sending yields higher for a third week, after the economy lost more jobs last month
than expected. These bad figures raised concerns that Congress will have to issue more debt to combat the recession
and added fuel to efforts by Congress to pass a massive-economic stimulus package
.$'4 The Treasury Department said that it will sell a record $67 billion in notes and bonds during the government's quarterly
)*3 ,& refunding auctions this week.
Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.95 %, -2 bp, 5-year rate at 1.92 %, +2 bps, 10-year rate at 2.95 %, +4 bps, 30-year rate
at 3.68 %, +3 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread narrowed at -42 bps. /LC
Japan’s markets fell of 107.59 pts or 1.3 % to close at 7,969.03 in Tokyo as Nomura Holding ‘s plan to bolster
capital sparked concern ownership will diluted. Most Asian stock fell led by finance companies. In Tokyo financials
went down ( Sumutomo-3.70%,Mizuho-3.10%) and Nomura Holdings, Japan’s number one brokerage plunged 14 %
after saying it may sell common stock. Despite the slight drop of the yen against the dollar export values dropped,
&2)' 1+2,% component went down (
)*3 ,& Fujitsu-5.12%,NTT-4.78%,Tokyo Electron -3.06%),electronic sector went down( Olympus-6.25%) but Pioneer rose
significantly at +7.98%.Car sector was mixed ( Nissan -5.78%,Suzuki +5.14%) and Toyota Corp which widened its
annual loss forecast, jumped 3.2% after Credit Suisse said its earnings will bottom out this quarter and as the local
currency weakened against the dollar. Finally oil sector dropped ( INPEX -1.13%) as the barrel is still on a down trend
due to the global weak demand as recession it strongly hitting the most industrialized countries ./JB
Oil prices sharply retreated Friday after data showed the U.S. lost the most jobs in 34 years during January. But a
weaker dollar, hopes that a stimulus plan will soon be passed in the U.S. and chances of another supply cut during
2# OPEC's next meeting on March 15 kept prices above $40 a barrel. The WTI declined 2.43 % at $40.17 a barrel while
the Brent was still up for the third consecutive session at $45.73 or +0.30 %. The futures for March delivery were flat
(+0.07 %) at $40.20 a barrel. /LC
The euro is now facing more and more troubles as the recession is deepening in the Euro Zone and as the European
Central Bank is taking its time to decrease its leading rate increasing the risk of a longer recession. Today the euro
$* 5 went down against the dollar -0.35% after getting up on Friday +1.17%(1.29),Friday , the dollars went up against the
yen +0.73%(91.89) and against the British pound +1.21%(1.47)./JB

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 Europe America Asia
Indices 8/2/09 % Chg Indices 8/2/09 % Chg Indices 9/2/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50 2344 +2,20% DJIA 8281 +2,70% Nikkei 7969 -1,33%
DJ 600 199 +2,07% S&P 500 869 +2,69% Topix 779 -1,51%
FTSE 100 4292 +1,49% NASDAQ 1592 +2,94% Hong Kong 13705 +0,20%
DAX (XETRA) 4645 +2,97% TSX 9008 +1,66% Singapore 1688 -1,61%
CAC 40 3123 +1,84% Bolsa (Mexico) 20438 +3,55% South Korea 1203 -0,63%
AEX (Pays Bas) 261 +3,50% Bovespa (Br.) 42756 +4,01% Thailand CLOSED
SMI (Suisse) 5123 +0,32% Merval (Argent.) 1144 +2,98% Indonesia 1335 -1,30%
S&P / MIB (Italie) 19466 +2,21% IPSA (Chili) 12625 +3,55% Taiwan 4495 +0,52%
IBEX 35 (Esp.) 8545 +1,24% IGBVL (Pérou) 6980 +1,58% China 2225 +1,99%
BVL (Portugal) 2143 +1,62% India 9442 +1,43%
Source : Bloomberg
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
12,66LOUIS VUI
LVMH MOET HENNESSY GDF SUEZ -5,07 JPMORGAN CHASE12,59
& CO FUKUOKA FINANCIAL5,59 -14,34
GROUP INCNOMURA HOLDINGS INC
AEGON NV 10,55 SANOFI-AVENTIS -2,43 CITIGROUP INC 10,77 5,14
SUZUKI MOTOR CORP -10,39
ASAHI GLASS CO LTD
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
8,53 SHARES
DAIMLER AG-REGISTERED E.ON AG -0,57 AMERICAN EXPRESS5,29
CO SHARP CORP 4,85 TAISEI CORP -9,18
BASF SE 8,34 -0,10
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG-REG CATERPILLAR INC 5,28 FANUC LTD 4,01 -8,21
UBE INDUSTRIES LTD
RENAULT SA 8,13 HOME DEPOT INC 5,05 3,24
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP KAJIMA CORP -7,88

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 6 0
RIO TINTO’s director Jim Leng has quit and will not become chairman as had been planned, raising speculation he may have
objected to a deal with Chinalco (FT) / A Chinese newspaper said a deal would be sealed before Thursday, when Rio reports
its annual results / Over the weekend, the WSJ reported that Mitsui was in talks for a US$5 bn asset sale by Rio Tinto…
VODAFONE and Hutchison Whampoa will merge their Australian businesses to create a company able to take on the
dominant operators / The move creates a company with 6 m customers and combined annual revenue of $2.7 bn
DEXIA has used up about half of the €150 bn state guarantees for its borrowings (Reuters)
DNBNOR : Norway’s govt said it will create 2 funds with combined capital of NOK100bn to aid bank lending & purchase
corporate bonds
UNICREDIT : Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Torino, Central Bank of Libya & MUNICH RE may buy UCG convertible
bonds after Fondazione CariVerona, which held 6% of UCG, said it won’t subscribe to the sale (Il Sole 24 Ore)
E.ON : CEO said he plans to announce a savings program soon (Handelsblatt)
ENI : Libyan sovereign funds have still not bought more than 2% of Eni (Foreign Affairs Minister), 2 months after the country's
ambassador said it would buy when prices were attractive… ALSTOM and its partners won a $1.8bn contract to build a 444-
kilometer railway in Saudi Arabia (Saudi Gazette)
AIB & BK OF IRELAND : Sunday Business Post reiterates that both Companies will each get €3.5bn from govt / The state
won’t receive any direct equity stake in the banks in return
CONTINENTAL : The family that owns Schaeffler hopes to sell a stake in their company in order to reduce the billions of debt
that financed its acquisition of Continental and prevent a "senseless" break up
BARCLAYS : FY PTP £6.08bn (£5.8bn e) / NII £11.5bn (£10.55bn e) / Impairment Charges & Other £5.4bn / No Final div for
2008 / Tier1 ratio = 9.7% / 2009 seen challenging & Sees lower credit Mkt losses in 09 / Conf call at 9:30 UKT

. 0
RENAULT-PEUGEOT : The French government will lend €3 bn each as part of aid to the auto industry / In order to receive the
loans at preferential rates, the 2 carmakers must pledge to not fire any workers or close factories in France (Les Echos / Le
Figaro)
EADS (Late Friday) : Airlines cancelled more planes than they purchased in January, leaving Airbus with a negative net order
tally
NORSKE SKOG plans to sell its mainland China newsprint business to Chinese companies in an effort to cut debt (South
China Morning Post) / One source said while the company was hoping to get up to US$800 m for the Chinese assets, it might
get as little as US$200 m
UBS will report a FY loss of SFR21bn + cut 5K-8K jobs when it reports earnings on Feb. 10 (Sonntag)
CREDIT SUISSE will report a FY loss of SFR8bn (Sonntag) vs around SFR4.5bn consensus
BNP : Ping An Insurance said it will vote against the revised terms of BNP ’s bid at the shareholder meeting on Feb. 11 /
Separately, Fortis is seeking a "Plan B" should shareholders vote against the state-led carve up of their group (De Tijd)
BALOISE’s CEO said falling financial markets will “considerably” affect net income (Handelszeitung)
NATIXIS needs more money from French govt in addition to the €2.5bn promised to parent companies Groupe Caisse
d’Epargne and Groupe Banque Populaire / The French govt wants the owners of Natixis to agree on a full merger within the
next two weeks (Les Echos)
HEIDELBERGERCEMENT : FY sales €14.2bn (14.6bn exp) / FY operating €2bn (2.06bn exp) / Says difficult to give forecast
for business in 2009 but expects decline in 2009 sales and operating profit / Aims to sell non-core business
SANOFI / GSK have emerged as bidders for the Indian generic drug company Piramal Healthcare for around $1.5 bn / Pirimal
said reports about a potential sale of the company were "unfounded"
VALLOUREC… : BP is arranging meetings with suppliers in the U.S., Britain and other countries to push for cuts in costs (FT)
AIR FRANCE : January passenger traffic down 1.9% / Load factor down 0.5 points to 76.6% / Says cargo traffic worsened
DSG INTERNATIONAL is considering a rights issue (Sunday Telegraph)
MAN AG is suffering more from the economic crisis than earlier thought & this has resulted into deeper prod. cuts in 2009 (Die
Welt)
INFINEON : Saxony's state premier said that a possible investor for Qimonda could not count on extra aid from the state
government
HAMMERSON launched a fully underwritten Rights Issue to raise net proceeds of £584.2 m, which will be used to reduce
drawn borrowings and net indebtedness / 7 for 5 fully underwritten rights issue of approximately 405.8 m new shares at £1.50
per share

NISSAN : Q3 sales Y1.82trl (2.04Trl exp) / Operating loss Y 99.2bn (-110bn exp) / Won’t pay H2 dividend (Y20 last year) /
Sees FY operating loss of Y 180bn (-50bn exp) / Will cut 20K jobs next fiscal year
LG ELECTRONICS aims to cut $2.2 bn in costs and expects about a 20% sales decline in $ terms this year (CEO)

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 . -
MEDIA TEK RAISED TO OUTPERFORM BY CREDIT SUISSE
DEUTSCHE POST RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY RBS
VINCI ADDED TO EUROPE 1 LIST BY MERRILL LYNCH
INTESA SANPAOLO RAISED TO HOLD FROM SELL BY RBS
LUKOIL RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY ING
CARREFOUR RATED NEW BUY BY UBS

BHP BILLITON CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY BY RBS

TELENOR CUT TO EQUAL-WEIGHT FROM OVERWEIGHT BY MORGAN STANLEY
DANSKE BANK CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY DEUTSCHE BANK
SWISS RE CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY ING
UBI BANCA RATED NEW HOLD BY RBS
GAZPROM CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY BY ING
MONTE PASCHI CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY RBS

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 /-
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Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

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