Participatory Programme Planning & Management

Unit III: Administration of the Project:

Concept, Professional Management techniques to promote participation Stakeholder Analysis Force field Analysis SWOT Analysis PERT & CPM Logical Framework Analysis

Ways to Channel Participation: Participation in decision making requires good communication; the more channels you can open up the more you can have staff participate in managing the organization. Every chance you get, look for ways to talk with staff. Let them show you their achievements and frustrations. Develop a genuine interest in what they do. Show respect. Set up a routine and regular participatory management meeting.. Set up special sessions that allow (and encourage) staff input. Use job descriptions as your programme of increasing staff participation, and arrange annual review sessions to obtain staff input for making annual work plans. Brainstorming is another method of pro-actively seeking participation in decision making. It is different than the others here in that it is aimed at communal decision making, not decision making that is moderated by them. Look at how your organization is running at present. Ask how in what ways staff already participate in management decision making. Generate ways you think that they can be encouraged to participate more. Design your programme to be appropriate for the conditions you face, and choose only what will work. Paying Attention: Management Meetings: Meetings should be held routinely and regularly. If you absent yourself from meetings, or cancel them too often, you lower the respect and importance you show to them. Both you and your staff can schedule other work around the time you select. Do not select a time when it is likely that anyone outside your control can call a different meeting that you are obliged to attend. The optimum frequency is two weeks (or a half month) between meetings. Some managers meet weekly, others monthly. Choose what is most appropriate. Ensure that they are held on the same week-day and at the same time every meeting. Make every attempt to make these meetings decision-making meetings.. What is important here is that you want staff members to contribute to the management decision making process Not all of their suggestions will be automatically accepted, if they are contradicted by the board (of directors or a steering committee with powers of making policy), the constitution or official policy document of the organization (if it has one), the law of the land, the available budget for the organization, or its stated purpose, goals, objectives, strategy or other officially stated parameters. Suggestions that can not be followed through because of those limitations may be made by some staff members. Thank the staff member for his/her contribution, explain why it can not be accepted, and ensure them that management can only make executive decisions, and can not contradict policy. Meetings are opportunities to let staff know how, in various ways, that they are valuable, have useful ideas to offer, and are respected. Just inviting them to attend meetings is not sufficient. They may feel that they have better things to do, especially if meetings are not

productive and meaningful to them. It is necessary to ensure that their attendance is productive, and seen to be productive. It is OK to have different meetings for different categories of staff; eg one for support staff and another for professional or line staff. Sometimes it is useful for the manager of the support staff to chair support staff participatory management meetings. If so, the overall manager should sit in the meetings to show interest and make sure that support staff know that they are needed and respected. If you ask a secretary or other support staff to take notes during management meetings, they may have to concentrate on recording and not participate fully in the decision making process. In such cases make sure that you spend time with that person, depending on the topics, asking for opinions. Special Sessions: By organizing special sessions, you have a further opportunity to encourage honest and candid contributions by the staff. Special sessions can be set up for various occasions, including the visit of a VIP from the head office, from the government, or from a major donor agency. It can be for a major restructuring exercise, or a national event that calls for refection by all organizations in the country. The SWOT session, as part of an agency transforming from an emergency response (charity) agency to a sustainable development (empowerment) agency, is an example of a special session. SWOT stands for "Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats," and can be used on many occasions as well as the one in that module aimed at transforming an agency or programme. The appearance of an organizational crisis, whether it has internal or external factors, or both, is also a good opportunity to organize a special occasion. The arrival of an outside intervening consultant, eg for management training or monitoring and assessment, are all further events that can offer opportunities for setting up special sessions in which you can encourage staff participation in management decision making. Job Descriptions: The way you use job descriptions can also be an opportunity for contributing to participatory management.Very often a job description is designed initially when an organization is set up. Regular reviews of a job description, by the concerned staff and his/her supervisor, modifying its content to reflect changing conditions and in response to changing tasks and responsibilities, then signing it by both staff and supervisor, can contribute to participatory management in many ways. It is not the job descriptions themselves, but how you use them, that contributes to participatory management. Annual Reviews: Conducting an annual review with all the stake holders in a development programme is an important and valuable way to get feedback on recent activities, and input to be inserted in the upcoming annual work plan. Similarly, an annual review for staff within a single organization can be (if done right) a useful way to review the past year, successes, failures, lessons learned, and to obtain suggestions that can be put into the next annual work plan for that organization. It is a good tool for exercising participatory management.It is interesting and useful to hire an outside experienced participatory appraisal (PRA, PAR) facilitator to conduct the review. Participatory management can improve the effectiveness and capacity of an organization. It contributes to increased transparency in organizational decision making.

Stakeholder analysis
Stakeholder may refer to: Stakeholder (corporate) - a person, group, organization, or system who affects or can be affected by an organization's actions Project stakeholder - a stakeholder with an interest in a project Stakeholder analysis is a term used in conflict resolution, project management, and business administration to describe a process where all the individuals or groups that are likely to be affected by a proposed action are identified and then sorted according to how much they can affect the action and how much the action can affect them. This information is used to assess how the interests of those stakeholders should be addressed in a project plan, policy, program, or other action. Overview Stakeholder analysis is a term that refers to the action of analyzing the attitudes of stakeholders towards something (most frequently a project). It is frequently used during the preparation phase of a project to assess the attitudes of the stakeholders regarding the incoming changes. Stakeholder analysis can be done one shot or on a regular basis to track how stakeholders changed their attitudes over time. A stakeholder is any person or organization, who can be positively or negatively impacted by, or cause an impact on the actions of a company, government, or organization. Types of stakeholders are:

Primary stakeholders : are those ultimately affected, either positively or negatively by an organization's actions. Secondary stakeholders : are the intermediaries, that is, persons or organizations who are indirectly affected by an organization's actions. Key stakeholders : (who can also belong to the first two groups) have significant influence upon or importance within an organization.

Therefore, Stakeholder analysis has the goal of developing cooperation between the stakeholder and the project team and, ultimately, assuring successful outcomes for the project. A stakeholder analysis is performed when there is a need to clarify the consequences of envisaged changes, or at the start of new projects and in connection with organizational changes generally. It is important to identify all stakeholders for the purpose of identifying their success criteria and turning these into quality goals. Stakeholder Mapping The first step in building any stakeholder map is to develop a categorised list of the members of the stakeholder community. Once the list is reasonably complete it is then possible to assign priorities in some way, and then to translate the highest priority stakeholders into a table or a picture. The potential list of stakeholders for any project will always exceed both the time available for analysis and the capability of the mapping tool to sensibly display the results, the challenge is to focus on the right stakeholders who are currently important and to use the tool to visualise this critical sub-set of the total community. The most common presentation styles use a matrix to represent two dimensions of interest with frequently a third dimension shown by the colour or size of the symbol representing the individual stakeholders. Some of the commonly used dimensions include:

Power (high, medium, low) Support (positive, neutral, negative) Influence (high or low)

Other Forms of Stakeholder Analysis There are three basic approaches used to help visualize, map and understand stakeholders. The approach with the highest profile in general business is the customer relationship management or CRM approach. This approach requires substantial data sets to be gathered about a key segment of the business stakeholder community (typically customers) followed by the use of data mining techniques allow trends and opportunities to be identified, graphed and communicated. These reports inform management decision making and help the business prosper. CRM works effectively in situations where the business is relatively stable and there are a large class of stakeholders interacting with the business in a reasonably common way. A second approach that cannot be ignored is the extensive body of work focusing on influence networks. This research focuses on the importance of relationships through the study of influence networks, social networks, social capital, viewing projects as temporary knowledge organizations (TKOs) and more recently the idea of CRPR (Complex Responsive Processes of Relating)(Weaver 2007). All of these theories emphasize the critical importance of the relationships between different stakeholders both within and around the project team. The strength and effectiveness of the internal relationships enable the project team to function effectively and allows the team (or the project) to interact and influence its surrounding stakeholder community. The difficulty in using these strands of research lies in building the influence/relationship maps; the work is difficult, time consuming and invasive requiring extensive interviews with the stakeholders. Consequently whilst an appreciation of these ideas is critical for effective stakeholder management, the opportunities to undertake a detailed analysis of a particular stakeholder community are very limited and typically only occur as part of an academic research assignment. The need for a practical, usable approach to visualizing many different stakeholder communities has led to the development of a range of listing and mapping techniques by academics, consultants and businesses over the years. These approaches trade the richness of data available under the CRM approach for a holistic view of the whole stakeholder community and largely ignore the complex network of relationships considered in CRPR and the other network theories outlined above for a simpler consideration of importance in some form. Obviously the importance of a stakeholder is directly associated with his or her ability to influence the project through their network of relationships; the difference in the analysis is in the way this is assessed. All of the mapping techniques discussed above use a qualitative perception of a stakeholders importance rather than a quantitative analysis of the influence networks and relationships surrounding the stakeholder to determine an absolute value for that persons importance.

What is Stakeholder Analysis?

Stakeholder Analysis (SA) is a methodology used to facilitate institutional and policy reform processes by accounting for and often incorporating the needs of those who have a stake or an interest in the reforms under consideration. With information onstakeholders, their interests, and their capacity to oppose reform, reform advocates can choose how to best accommodate them, thus assuring policies adopted are politically realistic and sustainable. Although Stakeholder Analysis originated from the business sciences, it has evolved into a field that now incorporates economics, political science, game and decision theory, and environmental sciences. Current models of SA apply a variety of tools on both qualitative and quantitative data to understand stakeholders, their positions, influence with othergroups, and their interest in a particular reform. In addition, it provides an idea of theimpact of reform on political and social forces, illuminates the divergent viewpoints towards proposed reforms and the potential power struggles among groups and individuals, and helps identify potential strategies for negotiating with opposing stakeholders.

Who Are Stakeholders? A stakeholder is any entity with a declared or conceivable interest or stake in a policy concern. The range of stakeholders relevant to consider for analysis varies according to the complexity of the reform area targeted and the type of reform proposed and, where the stakeholders are not organized, the incentive to include them. Stakeholders can be of any form, size and capacity. They can be individuals, organizations, or unorganized groups. In most cases, stakeholders fall into one or more of the following categories:international actors (e.g. donors), national or political actors (e.g. legislators, governors), public sector agencies (e.g. MDAs), interest groups (e.g. unions, medical associations), commercial/private for-profit, nonprofit organizations (NGOs, foundations), civil society members, and users/consumers. Major Attributes to Consider Four major attributes are important for Stakeholder Analysis: the stakeholders position on the reform issue, the level of influence (power) they hold, the level of interest they have in the specific reform, and the group/coalition to which they belong or can reasonably be associated with. These attributes are identified through various data collection methods, including interviews with country experts knowledgeable about stakeholders or with the actual stakeholders directly. The level of influence depends on the quantity and type of resources and power the stakeholder can marshal to promote its position on the reform. The level of interest or salience is the priority and importance the stakeholder attaches to the reform area. Broadly, these attributes signal the capability the stakeholder has to block or promote reform, join with others to form a coalition of support or opposition, and lead the direction/discussion of the reform. SA therefore provides a detailed understanding of the political, economic, and social impact of reform on interested groups, the hierarchy of authority and power among different groups and the actual perceptions of the reform among different groups, all of which are important for reform advocates to consider. When to Conduct Stakeholder Analysis Timing is an important factor in the implementation of Stakeholder Analysis to assure the usefulness of the results for policy formulation. In most cases, SA should precede the finalizing of reform proposals. In early stages of policy formulation, SA can help gauge the likelihood of acceptance and sustainability of anticipated policy reforms. By initiating SA prior to the introduction of the reform and continuing to modify the policy proposal during the design process, potential obstacles to implementation and results can be avoided. When used at the right time and in conjunction with other tools such as qualitative political economy analyses and social impact assessments, Stakeholder Analysis can inform task team strategies to overcome opposition, build coalitions, and channel information and resources to promote and sustain proposed reform. Data Collection Several methods can be employed to collect data on stakeholders in a comprehensive and efficient manner. Prior to the actual collection, a brief review of background literature and country studies can provide a useful understanding of the countrys political economy. One method of collecting data is to conduct interviews directly with the stakeholders involved in the specific policy area. The second method is to interview local experts in the field who are knowledgeable about the issue and the important groups and individuals involved in the policy area. Some country team members (e.g. country managers) often hold extensive local knowledge and can provide a critical first hand understanding of which stakeholders are relevant to the reform area. However, unless resources and time do not permit, interviewing of local and international experts in the policy area or country and/or the stakeholders themselves is imperative.

Broad, all-inclusive interviews will lead to an effective Stakeholder Analysis process since it will uncover many facets of the countrys political economy. The content and questions of the interviews should focus on background information on the policy making process, information that identifies key stakeholders from a variety of groups in the reform process, and clarifying assumptions about stakeholders power and interest in the decision-making process. The number of interviews is determined by the research team, taking into consideration field conditions and logistical constraints (e.g. sensitivity, access, time, budget, etc.). Analyzing Data and Designing Strategy Data from interviews including scaled values assigned to the attributes and relative rankings calculated accordingly are catalogued and presented in charts and/or matrices, highlighting the following attributes: group their interest (or salience) influence (power) position on the reform An important measure called effective power (degree of power the stakeholder holds over other groups in relation to a reform area) is determined by weighting a combination of a stakeholders salience and influence. A clear assessment of each stakeholders power and likely impact on the policy making process is conducted through several steps. The first step is to create a continuum.Stakeholders are mapped on a continuum indicating support for the reform on a scale of 0 to 100 from low (far left) to high (far right). The varying degrees of support are marked on the line with a value indicating their reform preference. This implement also provides a quick visual of the lay of the land, illuminating clusters of groups that support, oppose or are indifferent to reform. The next step is to organize the stakeholder data according to relative power/influence and salience of each stakeholder to understand their potential support or opposition for the proposed reform. Often, a matrix is used to organize and classify the stakeholder data. One form is to map salience/interest and influence on the axes. This matrix provides a shorthand categorization and analysis of which stakeholders will gain or lose from a proposed reform and whether they can significantly impact the process. To guide strategic responses, stakeholders are categorized by their power and salience in a grid according to the following attributes: Promoters: Stakeholders who attach a high priority to the reform policy a priority and whose actions can have an impact on the implementation of the policy Defenders: Stakeholders who attach a high priority to the reform policy but whose actions cannot have an impact on the implementation of the policy Latents: Stakeholders whose actions can affect the implementation of the reform policy but who attach a low priority to this policy Apathetics: Stakeholders whose actions cannot affect the implementation of the reform policy and who attach a low priority to this policy The above grid and an additional one facilitate scenario-building and discussion and helps task teams determine appropriate responsive strategies (e.g. which stakeholders to target for negotiations and trade-offs, or which to buttress with resources and information, etc.). One of the main goals of Stakeholder Analysis is to reveal, and therefore potentially assist in reducing, the power imbalance among weaker groups which is often revealed during policy reform process. Depending on the attributes of the stakeholder (e.g. their level of influence vs. their salience on the issue), strategies may be tailored to address their concerns. For example: Maintain or increase power of reform supporters through building coalitions, and providing information and resources Convert opposition into support through negotiations, information and/or coalition building, including offering tradeoffs. Offset or counter powerful and not so powerful opponents

Because stakeholders and their positions may change over the course of negotiations and analyses, SA should remain an ongoing process allowing for policy design to adjust as more is known about the political reality. Ultimately, Stakeholder Analysis is a critical tool in clarifying the micro political economy of a policy area and can help identify interested parties that should be incorporated in the decision-making process, in addition to understanding the basis for their inclusion.

Force Field Analysis

Force field analysis is a management technique developed by Kurt Lewin, a pioneer in the field of social sciences, for diagnosing situations. It will be useful when looking at the variables involved in planning and implementing a change program and will undoubtedly be of use in team building projects,when attempting to overcome resistance to change.Lewin assumes that in any situation there are both driving and restraining forces that influence any change that may occur. Driving Forces Driving forces are those forces affecting a situation that are pushing in a particular direction; they tend to initiate a change and keep it going. In terms of improving productivity in a work group, pressure from a supervisor, incentive earnings, and competition may be examples of driving forces. Restraining Forces Restraining forces are forces acting to restrain or decrease the driving forces. Apathy, hostility, and poor maintenance of equipment may be examples of restraining forces against increased production. Equilibrium is reached when the sum of the driving forces equals the sum of the restraining forces. In our example, equilibrium represents the present level of productivity, as shown below. Equilibrium This equilibrium, or present level of productivity, can be raised or lowered by changes in the relationship between the driving and the restraining forces.

For illustration, consider the dilemma of the new manager who takes over a work group in which productivity is high but whose predecessor drained the human resources. The former manager had upset the equilibrium by increasing the driving forces (that is, being autocratic and keeping continual pressure on subordinates) and thus achieving increases in output in the short run. By doing this, however, new restraining forces developed, such as increased hostility and antagonism, and at the time of the former manager's departure the restraining forces were beginning to increase and the results manifested themselves in turnover, absenteeism, and other restraining forces, which lowered productivity shortly after the new manager arrived. Now a new equilibrium at a significantly lower productivity is faced by the new manager. Now just assume that our new manager decides not to increase the driving forces but to reduce the restraining forces. The manager may do this by taking time away from the usual production operation and engaging in problem solving and training and development.In the short run, output will tend to be lowered still further. However, if commitment to objectives and technical know-how of the group are increased in the long run, they may become new driving forces, and that, along with the elimination of the hostility and the apathy that were restraining forces, will now tend to move the balance to a higher level of output. Managers are often in a position in which they must consider not only output but also intervening variables and not only short-term but also long-term goals. It can be seen that force field analysis provides framework that is useful in diagnosing these interrelationships.

Force Field Analysis

Force Field Analysis is a simple but powerful technique for building an understanding of the forces that will drive and resist a proposed change. It consists of a two column form, with driving forces listed in the first column, and restraining forces in the second. The force field diagram is derived from the work of social psychologist Kurt Lewin. According to Lewins theories, human behavior is caused by forces beliefs, expectations, cultural norms, and the like within the "life space" of an individual or society. These forces can be positive, urging us toward a behavior, or negative, propelling us away from a behavior. A force field diagram portrays these driving forces and restraining forces that affect a central question or problem. A force field diagram can be used to compare any kind of opposites, actions and consequences, different points of view, and so on. In the context of process improvement, driving forces could be seen as pushing for change while restraining forces stand in the way of change. A force field diagram is used to analyze these opposing forces and set the stage for making change possible. Change will not occur when either the driving forces and restraining forces are equal, or the restraining forces are stronger than the driving forces. For change to be possible, the driving forces must overcome the restraining forces. Usually, the most effective way to do this it to diminish or remove restraining forces. It can be tempting to try strengthening the driving forces instead, but this tends to intensify the opposition at the same time. The balance sheet structure of the force field diagram makes it applicable to situations other than comparing driving and restraining forces as well. For example, you could use it to list possible actions and reactions, compare ideal situations and reality, or in negotiation, weigh what you want from someone with what they would have to face if they agreed. You can also use a force field diagram to: 1. List pro's and con's. 2. List actions and reactions.

3. 4. 5. 6.

List strengths and weaknesses. Compare ideal situations and reality. In negotiation, compare the perceptions of opposing parties. List "what we know" in the left column, and "what we don't know" in the right.

SWOT analysis
SWOT Analysis is a strategic planning method used to evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats involved in a project or in a business venture. It involves specifying the objective of the business venture or project and identifying the internal and external factors that are favorable and unfavorable to achieving that objective. The technique is credited to Albert Humphrey, who led a convention at Stanford University in the 1960s and 1970s using data from Fortune 500 companies. A SWOT analysis must first start with defining a desired end state or objective. A SWOT analysis may be incorporated into the strategic planning model. An example of a strategic planning technique that incorporates an objective-driven SWOT analysis is Strategic Creative Analysis (SCAN)[1]. Strategic Planning, including SWOT and SCAN analysis, has been the subject of much research. Strengths: attributes of the person or company that are helpful to achieving the objective. Weaknesses: attributes of the person or company that are harmful to achieving the objective. Opportunities: external conditions that are helpful to achieving the objective. Threats: external conditions which could do damage to the objective.

Identification of SWOTs is essential because subsequent steps in the process of planning for achievement of the selected objective may be derived from the SWOTs. First, the decision makers have to determine whether the objective is attainable, given the SWOTs. If the objective is NOT attainable a different objective must be selected and the process repeated. The SWOT analysis is often used in academia to highlight and identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. It is particularly helpful in identifying areas for development. Matching and converting Another way of utilizing SWOT is matching and converting. Matching is used to find competitive advantages by matching the strengths to opportunities. Converting is to apply conversion strategies to convert threats or weaknesses into strengths or opportunities. An example of conversion strategy is to find new markets. f the threats or weaknesses cannot be converted a company should try to minimize or avoid them.[2] Internal and external factors The aim of any SWOT analysis is to identify the key internal and external factors that are important to achieving the objective. These come from within the company's unique value chain. SWOT analysis groups key pieces of information into two main categories: Internal factors The strengths and weaknesses internal to the organization. External factors The opportunities and threats presented by the external environment to the organization. - Use a PEST or PESTLE analysis to help identify factors

The internal factors may be viewed as strengths or weaknesses depending upon their impact on the organization's objectives. What may represent strengths with respect to one objective may be weaknesses for another objective. The factors may include all of the 4P's; as well as personnel, finance, manufacturing capabilities, and so on. The external factors may include macroeconomic matters, technological change, legislation, and socio-

cultural changes, as well as changes in the marketplace or competitive position. The results are often presented in the form of a matrix. SWOT analysis is just one method of categorization and has its own weaknesses. For example, it may tend to persuade companies to compile lists rather than think about what is actually important in achieving objectives. It also presents the resulting lists uncritically and without clear prioritization so that, for example, weak opportunities may appear to balance strong threats. Use of SWOT Analysis The usefulness of SWOT analysis is not limited to profit-seeking organizations. SWOT analysis may be used in any decision-making situation when a desired end-state (objective) has been defined. Examples include: non-profit organizations, governmental units, and individuals. SWOT analysis may also be used in pre-crisis planning and preventive crisis management. SWOT analysis may also be used in creating a recommendation during a viability study. Corporate planning As part of the development of strategies and plans to enable the organization to achieve its objectives, then that organization will use a systematic/rigorous process known as corporate planning. SWOT alongside PEST/PESTLE can be used as a basis for the analysis of business and environmental factors.[8] Set objectives defining what the organization is going to do Environmental scanning o Internal appraisals of the organization's SWOT, this needs to include an assessment of the present situation as well as a portfolio of products/services and an analysis of the product/service life cycle Analysis of existing strategies, this should determine relevance from the results of an internal/external appraisal. This may include gap analysis which will look at environmental factors Strategic Issues defined key factors in the development of a corporate plan which needs to be addressed by the organization Develop new/revised strategies revised analysis of strategic issues may mean the objectives need to change Establish critical success factors the achievement of objectives and strategy implementation Preparation of operational, resource, projects plans for strategy implementation Monitoring results mapping against plans, taking corrective action which may mean amending objectives/strategies.[9]

Using SWOT to analyse the market position of a small management consultancy with specialism in HRM.[10] Strengths Reputation marketplace Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

in Shortage of Well established Large consultancies consultants at position with a well operating at a minor operating level rather defined market niche. level than partner level

Expertise at partner Unable to deal with Identified market for Other small level in HRM multi-disciplinary consultancy in areas consultancies looking consultancy assignments because other than HRM to invade the

of size or lack of ability Track record successful assignments

marketplace

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Analysis Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Analysis is a business management tool used to evaluate an organizations strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The tool is used to produce a model that can serve to provide direction in the development, formulation, and assessment of project management plans. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Analysis is an important step in the planing process that is often undervalued and omitted in constructing the project management plan. This basic management tool is straightforward and easy to use. Basically, factors are divided into internal and external issues. Based on the analysis of the information provided by the model, project management can better decide if the information gathered is something that will assist in accomplishing its objectives. Conversely, Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Analysis can also identify potential obstacles to success, as well as flaws in the plan that must be addressed, controlled, or eliminated if the desired results are to be achieved. In order for the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Analysis to be effective, project management must do more than simply identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats involved. Risk management demands that it is necessary to avoid, eliminate, or at the very least, minimize identified weaknesses and threats. Weaknesses should be closely scrutinized in order to determine whether or not it is possible to convert them into assets. Similarly, threats should be closely examined for the opportunity of building strength in areas where they stood, once they have been eliminated. Strengths and opportunities should be closely studies as well in order to maximize their effectiveness. Project management would be well advised to take advantage of this simple, cost effective management tool and to make it a fundamental step in the planning process.

Programme Evaluation and Review Technique / Critical Path Method (PERT/CPM)

Complex projects require a series of activities, some of which must be performed sequentially and others that can be performed in parallel with other activities. This collection of series and parallel tasks can be modeled as a network. In 1957 the Critical Path Method (CPM) was developed as a network model for project management. CPM is a deterministic method that uses a fixed time estimate for each activity. While CPM is easy to understand and use, it does not consider the time variations that can have a great impact on the completion time of a complex project. The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a network model that allows for randomness in activity completion times. PERT was developed in the late 1950's for the U.S. Navy's Polaris project having thousands of contractors. It has the potential to reduce both the time and cost required to complete a project. The Network Diagram In a project, an activity is a task that must be performed and an event is a milestone marking the completion of one or more activities. Before an activity can begin, all of its predecessor activities must be completed. Project network models represent activities and milestones by arcs and nodes. PERT originally was an activity on arc network, in which the activities are represented on the lines and milestones on the nodes. Over time, some

people began to use PERT as an activity on node network. For this discussion, we will use the original form of activity on arc. The PERT chart may have multiple pages with many sub-tasks. The following is a very simple example of a PERT diagram: PERT Chart The milestones generally are numbered so that the ending node of an activity has a higher number than the beginning node. Incrementing the numbers by 10 allows for new ones to be inserted without modifying the numbering of the entire diagram. The activities in the above diagram are labeled with letters along with the expected time required to complete the activity. Steps in the PERT Planning Process PERT planning involves the following steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Identify the specific activities and milestones. Determine the proper sequence of the activities. Construct a network diagram. Estimate the time required for each activity. Determine the critical path. Update the PERT chart as the project progresses.

1. Identify Activities and Milestones The activities are the tasks required to complete the project. The milestones are the events marking the beginning and end of one or more activities. It is helpful to list the tasks in a table that in later steps can be expanded to include information on sequence and duration. 2. Determine Activity Sequence This step may be combined with the activity identification step since the activity sequence is evident for some tasks. Other tasks may require more analysis to determine the exact order in which they must be performed. 3. Construct the Network Diagram Using the activity sequence information, a network diagram can be drawn showing the sequence of the serial and parallel activities. For the original activity-on-arc model, the activities are depicted by arrowed lines and milestones are depicted by circles or "bubbles". If done manually, several drafts may be required to correctly portray the relationships among activities. Software packages simplify this step by automatically converting tabular activity information into a network diagram. 4. Estimate Activity Times Weeks are a commonly used unit of time for activity completion, but any consistent unit of time can be used.

A distinguishing feature of PERT is its ability to deal with uncertainty in activity completion times. For each activity, the model usually includes three time estimates:

Optimistic time - generally the shortest time in which the activity can be completed. It is common practice to specify optimistic times to be three standard deviations from the mean so that there is approximately a 1% chance that the activity will be completed within the optimistic time. Most likely time - the completion time having the highest probability. Note that this time is different from the expected time.

Pessimistic time - the longest time that an activity might require. Three standard deviations from the mean is commonly used for the pessimistic time.

PERT assumes a beta probability distribution for the time estimates. For a beta distribution, the expected time for each activity can be approximated using the following weighted average: Expected time = ( Optimistic + 4 x Most likely + Pessimistic ) / 6 This expected time may be displayed on the network diagram. To calculate the variance for each activity completion time, if three standard deviation times were selected for the optimistic and pessimistic times, then there are six standard deviations between them, so the variance is given by: [ ( Pessimistic - Optimistic ) / 6 ]2 5. Determine the Critical Path The critical path is determined by adding the times for the activities in each sequence and determining the longest path in the project. The critical path determines the total calendar time required for the project. If activities outside the critical path speed up or slow down (within limits), the total project time does not change. The amount of time that a noncritical path activity can be delayed without delaying the project is referred to as slack time. If the critical path is not immediately obvious, it may be helpful to determine the following four quantities for each activity:

ES - Earliest Start time EF - Earliest Finish time LS - Latest Start time LF - Latest Finish time

These times are calculated using the expected time for the relevant activities. The earliest start and finish times of each activity are determined by working forward through the network and determining the earliest time at which an activity can start and finish considering its predecessor activities. The latest start and finish times are the latest times that an activity can start and finish without delaying the project. LS and LF are found by working backward through the network. The difference in the latest and earliest finish of each activity is that activity's slack. The critical path then is the path through the network in which none of the activities have slack. The variance in the project completion time can be calculated by summing the variances in the completion times of the activities in the critical path. Given this variance, one can calculate the probability that the project will be completed by a certain date assuming a normal probability distribution for the critical path. The normal distribution assumption holds if the number of activities in the path is large enough for the central limit theorem to be applied. Since the critical path determines the completion date of the project, the project can be accelerated by adding the resources required to decrease the time for the activities in the critical path. Such a shortening of the project sometimes is referred to as project crashing. 6. Update as Project Progresses Make adjustments in the PERT chart as the project progresses. As the project unfolds, the estimated times can be replaced with actual times. In cases where there are delays, additional resources may be needed to stay on schedule and the PERT chart may be modified to reflect the new situation.

Benefits of PERT PERT is useful because it provides the following information:

Expected project completion time. Probability of completion before a specified date. The critical path activities that directly impact the completion time. The activities that have slack time and that can lend resources to critical path activities. Activity start and end dates.

Limitations The following are some of PERT's weaknesses:

The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and depend on judgement. In cases where there is little experience in performing an activity, the numbers may be only a guess. In other cases, if the person or group performing the activity estimates the time there may be bias in the estimate. Even if the activity times are well-estimated, PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but the actual distribution may be different. Even if the beta distribution assumption holds, PERT assumes that the probability distribution of the project completion time is the same as the that of the critical path. Because other paths can become the critical path if their associated activities are delayed, PERT consistently underestimates the expected project completion time.

The underestimation of the project completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical is perhaps the most serious of these issues. To overcome this limitation, Monte Carlo simulations can be performed on the network to eliminate this optimistic bias in the expected project completion time.

Logical Framework Analysis

A log frame (also known as a Project Framework) is a tool for planning and managing development projects. It looks like a table (or framework) and aims to present information about the key components of a project in a clear, concise, logical and systematic way. History The log frame model was developed in the United States and has since been adopted and adapted for use by many other donors. The logical framework approach (LFA) has evolved since the 1970s as a methodology for improving the systematic planning of development projects. Over time, it has evolved from simply a framework for structuring project objectives to more sophisticated, process-orientated approaches for involving stakeholders in project design and management. Various groups and facilitators have integrated an extensive range of participatory planning methodologies and tools with the basic LFA framework and quite sophisticated planning workshops have been developed.

Logical framework The Logical Framework Approach involves problem analysis (problem tree), stakeholder analysis, objectives tree, objectives hierarchy and selecting a preferred implementation strategy. The Logical Framework Approach (LFA) is an analytical, presentational and management tool which can help planners and managers to: Analyse the existing situation during project preparation;

 Establish a logical hierarchy of means by which objectives will be reached; Identify some of the potential risks; Establish how outputs and outcomes might best be monitored and evaluated; and Present a summary of the project in a standard format. The product of this analytical approach is the matrix (the Logframe), which summarises what the project intends to do and how, what the key assumptions are, and how outputs and outcomes will be monitored and evaluated. A log frame summarises, in a standard format: What the project is going to achieve? What activities will be carried out to achieve its outputs and purpose? What resources (inputs) are required? What are the potential problems which could affect the success of the project? How the progress and ultimate success of the project will be measured and verified? Key steps in the Logical Framework Approach Establish the general scope and focus of the project. Agree on the specific planning framework, terminology and design process. Undertake a detailed situation analysis. Develop the project strategy (objective hierarchy, implementation arrangements and resources). Identify and analyse the assumptions and risks for the chosen strategies and modify the project design if assumptions are incorrect or risks are too high. Develop the monitoring and evaluation framework.

Summary
Narrative Summary

Contents

of

logical

framework
Important Assumptions

Verifiable Indicators

Means of Verification

Goal:

Purpose:

What are the quantitative ways (Goal to Supergoal): of measuring, or qualitative What sources of information What external factors are ways of judging, whether these exists, or can be provided costnecessary for sustaining broad objectives are being effectively? objectives in the long run? achieved? (estimated time) What are the quantitative (Purpose to Goal): What sources of information measures or qualitative What conditions external to the exists or can be provided costevidence by which project are necessary if effectively? Does provision for achievement and distribution achievements of the projects collection need to be made of impacts and benefits can be purpose is to contribute to under inputs-outputs? judged (estimated time) reaching the project goal? (Output of Purpose): What are the factors not within the control of the project which, if not present, are liable to restrict progress from outputs to achievements of project purpose?

Outputs: Indicate each of the outputs that What kind and quantity of are to be outputs, and by when will they What sources of information? produced by the be produced? (quantity, project in order to quality, time) achieve project purpose

Goal The ultimate result to which your project is contributing - the impact of the project. Wider problem the project will help to resolve Purpose The change that occurs if the project outputs are achieved - the effect of the project.

The immediate impact on the project area or target group i.e. the change or benefit to be achieved by the project Outputs The specifically intended results of the project activities - used as milestones of (date). what has been accomplished at various stages during the life of the project. These are the specifically deliverable results expected from the project to attain the purpose Activities The actual tasks required producing the desired outputs. These are the tasks to be done to produce the outputs Indicators Also referred to as measurable or objectively verifiable indicators (OVI) quantitative and qualitative ways of measuring progress and whether project outputs; purpose and goal have been achieved. Measuring or qualitative ways of judging timed achievement of goal Quantitative ways of measuring or qualitative ways of judging timed achievement of purpose Quantitative ways of measuring or qualitative ways of judging timed production of outputs Factors out of project control which, if present, could restrict progress from activities to achieving outputs Process indicators Which measure the extent to which you have achieved your stated objectives. Impact indicators Which help to monitor the achievement and the impact of your work. Means of verification M.O.V is the information or data required to assess progress against indicators and their sources. Cost-effective methods and sources to quantify or assess indicators Cost-effective methods and sources to quantify or assess indicators Cost-effective methods and sources to quantify or assess indicators Assumptions Factors external to the project which are likely to influence the work of the project management has little control, and which need to exist to permit progress to the next level in the LFA. External factors necessary to sustain objectives in the long run -impact External conditions necessary if achieved project purpose is to contribute to reaching project goal -objectives Factors out of project control which, if present, could restrict progress from outputs to achieving project purpose -output Factors out of project control which, if present, could restrict progress from activities to achieving outputs-activities Super goal The long-term results of continued achievement of the goal of the project. Inputs What materials, equipment, financial and human resources are needed to carry out the activities of the project? This is a summary of the project budget Financial out-turn report as agreed in grant agreement Strengths of LFA: During initial stages can be used to test project ideas and concepts for relevance and usefulness. When designing logframes help to make comprehensive plans that are feasible within acceptable levels of risks.

Logframes can form the basis of contracts with explicit statements of what will be delivered. During implementation the logframe serves as the main reference for drawing up detailed work plans, terms of reference, budgets, etc. Logframe provides indicators against which the project progress and achievements can be assessed.

Weaknesses of LFA LFA has become widely accepted as a useful and necessary tool for project planning. However, it does have weaknesses, including: Focusing too much on problems rather than opportunities and vision; Being used too rigidly, leading people into a blueprint approach to project design; Limited attention to problems of uncertainty where a learning or adaptive approach to project design and management is required; and A tendency for poorly-thought-through sets of activities and objectives to be entered into a PPM table, giving the appearance of a logical framework when in fact the key elements of the analytical process have been skipped. Despite these limitations and provided due attention is given to the participation of stakeholders and it is not used too rigidly, the LFA approach remains a very valuable tool for project planning and management.

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WHAT IS LFA: LFA is a method and an instrument to improve the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of a development intervention. LFA is based on the idea that the user, the project owner, assumes the main responsibility for the planning process.

LFA has the aim of improving the quality of project operations and can only achieve this if the user has a good grasp of the method and uses it throughout the entire project cycle. identify problems and needs in a certain sector of society facilitate selecting and setting priorities between projects plan and implement development projects effectively follow-up and evaluate development projects. An instrument for logical analysis and structured thinking in project planning A framework, a battery of questions which, if they are used in a uniform way, provide a structure for the dialogue between different stakeholders in a project. A planning instrument, which encompasses the different elements in a process of change (problems, objectives, stakeholders, plan for implementation etc).The project plan may be summarized in a LFA matrix, the log frame, An instrument to create participation/accountability/ownership Common sense. Make a dialogue possible between all parties involved (beneficiaries, implementers, decision-makers and financiers) Offer a tool for the identification of problems and correct solutions to problems Contribute to clarifying and concretizing the projects objectives and to specifying correct activities that are necessary to realize the objectives Facilitate the production of follow-up reports and evaluations Create a joint approach to the project, reducing complexity. Ensure that the ownership of the project ends up with the partner in co-operation Make the implementation of the project more efficient, reduce the amount of time required and make the project/programme sustainable.

Objective oriented planning Objective-oriented planning means that the point of departure of the planning process is the problem analysis, which leads to the objectives and finally makes it possible to choose the relevant activities. Hence, before making a plan of activities, an analysis of the problems and objectives is necessary. The factors of success for good goal fulfilment the commitment of all parties involved the project owners sense of ownership and responsibility, definite roles for all parties involved (division of work & responsibilities), realism, realistic objectives, specific and clear goal fulfilment, specific links between what is done within the framework of the project the activities) and what will be achieved (the objectives), capacity, the project groups ability to deal with risks, flexibility to adjust processes if conditions change, projects in which the users beneficiaries) have participated in and exerted an influence on the planning of the project. Steps in LFA 1. Analysis of the projects Context 2. Stakeholder Analysis 3. Problem Analysis/Situation analysis 4. Objectives Analysis 5. Plan of Activities 6. Resource Planning 7. Indicators/Measurements of Objectives 8. Risk Analysis and Risk Management 9. Analysis of the Assumptions Step 1 Context analysis: (The projects environment/background information) All projects/processes of change are part of a wider context. The project is influenced continuously by different economic, social and political processes taking place in society. It is essential that the project group has a clear picture of the context when planning the

project. What environment will the project be implemented in? What external factors are important for the fulfillment of the projects objectives? It is therefore necessary to make an initial overall scanning of the projects context (an exhaustive analysis of risks and assumptions is made later, in steps 89). This step is often performed by making a study, for example of a sector or a region etc, and/or by making a SWOT analysis (SWOT stands for an analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats3). Step 2 Stakeholder Analysis/Participation Analysis: (Those who should be involved when planning and implementing the project) Stakeholders are those who are influenced by and exert an influence on those things that take place in the project directly or indirectly. Stakeholders can be divided up into four main groups: 1. Beneficiaries/Target group 2. Implementers 3. Decision-makers 4. Financiers During the project planning process, information should be obtained from all the different stakeholder groups. All of them have important information to give to the future project group. For the project group it is crucial to structure all the reasons/causes of problems in order to find sustainable solutions. Step 3 Problem Analysis/Situation Analysis: (An analysis of the problem that shall be solved by the project and the reasons for its existence) The causes are analysed in order to find the reasons for the focal problem and, thereby, the solutions/the relevant activities. The effects demonstrate the arguments (the needs) for implementing the change/the project. In the problem tree, the causes are the roots of the focal problem, which, in turn, is symbolised by the trunk of the tree. The effects of the problem form the top of the tree. A problem tree is always read from the bottom up. The problems below lead to the problems above. The project activities, they should try to eliminate as many causes as possible by activities. It is important to find the relevant activities in order to eliminate the causes of the problem. Often several activities are needed in order to eliminate one problem, and one cause. Without a problem analysis it will be very complicated, if possible at all, to find the right sustainable solutions (activities) to solve a problem. The problem analysis has to be made by the relevant stakeholders, including the owners of the problem, the people who know the situation, not by consultants or financing agencies. The basic questions that a problem analysis should answer are the following: What is the main/focal problem that shall be solved with the aid of the project? (Why is a change/a project needed?) What are the causes of this problem? (Why does it exist?) What effects does the problem have? (Why is it important to solve the problem?) Who is affected by the problem and Who owns the problem?

Step 4 Objective Analysis: (The picture of the future situation) The objective analysis is the positive reverse image of the problem analysis. During the objectives analysis, the project group should set three levels of objectives: Overall objectives

Project purpose Results

The relationship between the problem analysis and the objective analysis: Problem tree Effects Focal problem Causes Objective tree Development Objectives Project Purpose/Immediate Objective Immediate results/Outputs Activities The objectives should answer the following questions: What shall the project contribute to achieving in the long run? Why is the project important? What are the long-term policy objectives to which the project will contribute? (Overall Objectives) What is the project-owners picture of the ideal situation? It clarifies why the target group needs the project. What is the focus of this project? (Project Purpose) Which different components/sub-goals is needed in order to achieve the purpose and the overall objectives? (Results)

Hence, the objectives are explanations of what the project is going to achieve in the short, medium and in the long run. A more comprehensive explanation of the three levels of objectives is given below: Goal/Overall Objectives/Development Objectives: The highest level of objectives is the overall objective, which states the direction the project shall take, i.e. the changes which will take place in the long term partly as a result of the project. State the long-term social and/or economic (impact) benefits to which the project will contribute, and describe why the project is important for the beneficiaries and for the society. External factors outside the scope of the project are important for the fulfillment of the overall objectives. Hence, this objective level is often difficult to measure. One example of an overall objective is increased incomes for small scale farmers or higher completion rates for girls in primary education, improved social welfare or poverty reduction. It cannot be expected that this goal will be achieved until possibly some 510 years after the project has ended. The goals constitute the long-term vision for the project owner. The Project Purpose/Immediate Objective: It states the expected outcomes, or direct effects, of the project. The project purpose is the very reason why the project is needed. The purpose describes the situation which is expected to prevail if the project delivers the expected results, and the assumptions made of the external factors, which must act together with the project. The project purpose and the results shall be: (SMART) Specific, Measurable, Approved by the project owner and the project group Realistic

 Time-bound The project purpose is the objective that should have been achieved directly in one to three years or at the end of the project. If it is achieved, the causes of the problem will have been eliminated and, hence, the focal problem itself will disappear. Results/Outputs: The outputs are the direct results of the activities that are implemented within the framework of the project. The outputs/results are a description of the value of the services/products produced by the project within the framework of what the project stakeholders can guarantee. Outputs are actual, tangible results that are a direct consequence of the projects activities. Several activities are often necessary in order to reach one result/output. Step 5 Plan of Activities (means to achieve the objectives & means to eliminate the causes of the focal problem) Activities constitute the means to achieve the goals. If the activities are planned and implemented in a suitable way, the results will be achieved. This, in turn, will lead to the achievement of the project purpose and, in the long term, will also influence the overall objectives. The activities shall tackle the causes/reasons of the focal or core problem(s), the roots of the tree. The activities are the work that is done by those involved in the project. Step 6 Plan of Resources, inputs in order to implement the activities: Before the project starts, the project group needs to make a detailed plan of the resources which are needed to implement the project. The project plan, including the plan of resources, is formulated in the Scope of Work . Resources provided for implementing activities within the framework of the project can consist of: Technical expertise (local and/or foreign expertise: what kind of know-how is needed to support the development of capacity) equipment /spare parts /training in the use of the equipment premises funds time Step 7 Indicators measurements of results: Establishing a suitable indicator for an objective is a way of ensuring that an objective becomes specific, realistic and tangible. There should be at least as many indicators as there are results and some for the project purpose. It is important to think about the following when establishing indicators of the fulfillment of objectives and results: What shall the project achieve in the terms of quality? What shall the project achieve in terms of quantity? During which period of time? When shall the fulfilment of objectives have taken place? Which group is the target group? Which geographical region or sector is affected by the project? The process of setting up indicators reveals whether the objectives are non-specific and unrealistic. An indicator shall be objectively verifiable. In other words, anybody shall be able to measure the results. It shall be clear where data for measurement purposes can be found. (State sources of verification in the project document.) Step 8 Risk Analysis and Risk Management (Analysis of the risks affecting the projects objectives and plans to avoid these risks)

The persons/the project group that are responsible for the project must identify, analyse and assess different factors, which, in different ways, affect the possibilities available to the project to achieve its objectives. An analysis of possible critical external and internal factors /risks gives us an opportunity to assess the conditions that the project is working under. In the risk analysis it can be the case that so-called killing factors arise, i.e. factors that make goal fulfilment in a project impossible, for example political developments in the country. After having made a risk analysis, project management has to make a risk management plan, i.e. a plan of how to avoid the potential risks. Include risk management in the project plan, as activities to overcome risks. Internal factors/risks: These are risks of the type that are possible for the project to exercise control over. They can be practical matters such as delays in deliveries, personnel turnover etc. In most cases project management can minimize the effects of these internal risks. External factors/risks: These are risks that exist outside the framework of the project (for example political developments, natural disasters, corruption etc.) It is most often the case that the project group cannot exert an influence on these risks. If they are triggered off, these external risks can lead to difficulties in fulfilling the objectives of the project, some of them might even be killing factors, Step 9 Assumptions: (factors important for goal fulfillment, but outside the projects scope) A project does not exist in a social, economic and political vacuum. For its success it is dependent on norms, laws, ordinances, policies, political will and commitment, allocation of funds etc. This is what is normally referred to as the institutional situation in a country. It is not always possible for the project group to exert an influence on this situation and it creates assumptions for the project, which can be favourable or not so favourable. These assumptions should be analysed through the problem analysis before the project is started. A projects priorities should be set with reference to resources, mandate, limits and with reference to what the project group needs to rely on/assume that other parties/projects are handling. The project group should state the assumptions in the project proposal. The assumptions have to be realistic, otherwise they are considered to be risks and should be handled in the risk management plan. Why have the different steps in the LFA analysis? Relevance, Feasibility and Sustainability Relevance: With the assistance of steps 14 (context, problem analysis, stakeholder analysis, objective analysis), we can make sure that we are doing the right thing, by involving the relevant stake-holders, dealing with the right problems and establishing the correct objectives, which enables us to select the right activities at a later stage. These steps ensure that the project idea is relevant in a problem-solving perspective. feasibility: With the assistance of steps 57 (activity plan, resource planning, indicators of objective fulfilment), we can see that we are doing things in the right way, that the programme is feasible, with the right activities and with sufficient resources (personnel, equipment, budget, time) to solve the problem. Sustainability: With the aid of steps 89 (analysis of risks and assumptions), we can assess whether the project can continue by itself, without external support, and that the project purpose is sustainable in the long-term. General structure and content of a Logframe Matrix Activity Description Indicators Means Verification of Assumptions

Goal or Impact The long term development impact (policy goal) that the activity contributes at a national or sectoral level

How the Sources of achievement will be information on measured the Goal including indicator(s) appropriate targets including (quantity, quality who will collect it and time) and how often How the achievement of the Purpose will be measured including appropriate targets (quantity, quality and time) How the achievement of the Component Objectives will be measured including appropriate targets (quantity, quality and time) Sources of information on the Purpose indicator(s) including who will collect it and how often Assumptions concerning Purpose to linkage the Goal

Purpose or Outcome The medium term result(s) that the activity aims to achieve in terms of benefits to target groups

Component Objectives or Intermediate Results This level in the objectives or results hierarchy can be used to provide a clear link between outputs and outcomes (particularly for larger multi-component activities)

Sources of information on the Component Objectives indicator(s) including who will collect it and how often Sources of information on the Output indicator(s) including who will collect it and how often

Assumptions concerning the Component Objective to Output linkage

Outputs The tangible How the products or services that achievement of the the activity will deliver Outputs will be measured including appropriate targets (quantity, quality and time)

Assumptions concerning the Output to Component Objective linkage

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Risk analysis: The project group should analyse the risks, one by one, identified by the project group and other stakeholders, as shown below.

1. Will this factor/risk affect the implementation of the project or make the objectives unachievable? Yes = Continue No = Ignore 2. Is it possible that the identified obstacle/risk will occur? Yes = Continue Perhaps = Continue No = Ignore 3. Will anyone outside the project deal with the obstacle/risk? No = Continue Perhaps = Continue Yes = Ignore 4. Can project management deal with the obstacle/risk? If the answer to question no. 4 is: YES = thenthe project group has to allocate resources and integrate activities in the plan in order to avoid the risk NO = thenThe project group has to monitor the obstacle carefully since the obstacle can be a killing factor and then the project group needs to plan alternative strategies for implementation in order to avoid the obstacle (The project group has to make a risk management plan) Analysis of Participants/Stakeholders 1.1 Which agencies, organisations, groups and people will influence/be influenced by the project, directly or indirectly? Define their roles in relation to each other. 1.2 Describe the target group (sex, age, income, work situation, etc) and analyse effects on different parts of the target group. 1.3 In what way does the target group participate in the planning, implementation and follow-up of the project? To what extent does the project group own the project? 1.4 How will the effects of the project help/hinder weak/poor people or groups? 1.5 How are men and women each affected by the project? 1.6 Can any groups be affected negatively? The main steps in stakeholder analysis include 1 identifying the principal stakeholders (these can be at various levels, eg local, regional, national) 2 investigating their roles, interests, relative power and capacity to participate 3 identifying the extent of cooperation or conflict in the relationship between stakeholders, and 4 interpreting the findings of the analysis and defining how this should be incorporated into activity design. When looking at who the stakeholders are, it is useful to distinguish between the target group and the final beneficiaries. A summary of the terminology used in these Guidelines is provided below. Stakeholders: Individuals or institutions that may directly or indirectly, positively or negatively be affected by or affect an Activity. Beneficiaries: Are those who benefit in whatever way from the implementation of the Activity. Distinction may be made between: Target group(s): The group/entity who will be directly positively affected by the Activity at the Activity , Outcome level. This may include the staff from partner organisations; Final beneficiaries: Those who benefit from the Activity in the long term at the level of the society or sector at large, e.g. children due to increased spending on health and education, consumers due to improved agricultural production and marketing. Partners: Those who implement the Activity in-country (who are also stakeholders, and may be a target group).

Objective analysis Once the negative statements from the problem tree have been re-worded to positive statements, you should then check

are the statements clear and unambiguous? are the links between each statement logical and reasonable? (Will the achievement of one help support the attainment of another that is above it in the hierarchy?) is there a need to add any other positive actions and/or statements? More detail may be required. are the positive actions at one level sufficient to lead to the result above? do the risks to achieving the objectives and also having sustainable outcomes appear to be manageable? is the overall structure simple and clear? Simplify if possible or necessary.

Means of verification The following questions should be asked and answered how should the information be collected, eg sample surveys, administrative records, national statistics (as in the census), workshops or focus groups, observation, PRA or rapid rural appraisal techniques? what source is most appropriate? eg Who should be interviewed? Does the Bureau of Statistics already collect the required information? Is the source reliable? who should do it? eg extension staff, supervisors, an independent team? when and how often should the information be collected, analysed and reported? eg monthly, annually, according to seasonal cropping cycles? what formats are required to record the data being collected? Steps in conducting problem tree analysis A.1 Identifying and listing the main problems Explain the purpose of the exercise and the context within which it is taking place, eg preparation of a primary health care activity. Explain the problem tree method and the input expected from the participants. Provide some examples of the cause and effect relationship before starting, emphasising the importance of identifying root causes. Using contributions from the group, list all the negative statements about the situation you are analysing. This can be undertaken as a brainstorming session. Print each problem statement in clear language on a card and display this on some suitable wall space. A.2 Identifying core problems Through discussions, identify a consensus core problem - the one(s) which appear to be linked to most negative statements. Print a precise definition of the core problem on a card (if the existing statement requires further clarification). Display the card on a wall (or on the floor) so that the whole group can clearly see it. A.3 Identifying cause and effect Begin to distribute the negative statement cards according to whether they are causes, i.e. leading to the core problem, or effects, ie resulting from the core problem. Do this until all causes are below the core problem and all effects are above the core problem. At any stage in the exercise, those statements that are considered to be unclear should either be more clearly specified or discarded. Problems that are clear but very general in nature and which affect not only this issue but would apply to almost any development problem can be treated as overall constraints and moved to the side of the main problem tree. This helps keep the core problem tree focused and manageable. You can be guided in this by considering whether or not the problem is likely to be one which can be addressed by an activity based solution. If not, it is a constraint. Then the guiding questioning for further structuring the statements into a problem tree becomes What leads to that? Choose any negative statement printed as a problem on

the cards and ask: What leads to that? Then select from the cards the most likely cause of the problem, and place it below the chosen statement. If there are two or more causes combining to produce an effect, place them side by side below the resulting effect. After you have placed the card or cards for each relationship, pause to review. Then ask the group if there are more causes leading to that problem. Similarly you must ask if there are any more effects resulting from that problem. If there are multiple effects resulting from a cause, place them side by side and above the cause(s). A.4 Checking the logic At each stage you should invite participants to move the cards, i.e. to suggest or hypothesise other relationships. When you have placed all cards, review the structure to ensure that related streams of cause and effect are close to each other on the problem diagram. Choose one of the cards at the top line of your Problem Tree, then work back through the diagram according to the guiding question: What leads to, or causes, that? in order to check the logic or completeness of your cause-effect structure. A.5 Drafting the problem tree diagram Then draw in vertical links to show cause-effect relationships, and horizontal links to show joint causes and combined effects; and Copy your diagram onto a sheet of paper and distribute it for further comment and variations within an appropriate time period. A.6 Dealing with overall constraints Overarching development problems that are identified during the analysis, but which cannot be addressed directly by an activity based intervention, should be taken out of the main problem tree diagram and considered as overall constraints. Examples might include: institutional corruption, lack of government revenue, high population pressure. These overall constraints should then be considered as part of the risk and sustainability analyses undertaken later in the preparation process. Output The idea is that a team can be held accountable for producing a set of deliverables (Outputs), Outputs are the key components of the project. They are the results for which the project is held directly accountable and for which it is given resources. These are the main deliverables of the research project. Assumptions But ultimately there is a set of important external factors outside of their control Assumptions) which may prevent them from accomplishing the Purpose. Important assumptions are the key threats to the project that exist in the external environment. Assumptions are necessary conditions linking each level of objectives in the project plan Certain Assumptions are quite common. At the Goal-to-Super Goal level the primary Assumption is: "Supportive infrastructure, institutional capacities and national policies exist to extend and use the new technology." Activities Activities are the main groups of actions that must be completed in order to implement the project. Objectively Verifiable Indicators Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVIs) are the heart of the LFA. The OVIs add measurable detail to each of the general statements of objectives in the left hand column. Define realistic and plausible measures of success at each level. Accomplishment of OVIs signals success in reaching each level of objectives in the project plan. The heart of

the LogFRAME is MBO- targeting indicators in terms of Quantity, Quality and Time (QQT). EOPS Indicators at the Purpose level of research projects are called End of Project Status (EOPS). They define as precisely as possible, using the QQT rule, the new knowledge or technology to be developed. Goal level OVI At the Goal level of research projects the indicators define the impact of the new technology or knowledge or how the world will be changed as a result of its use. These indicators specify by whom and how widely the new knowledge or technology will be used. Means of Verification Means of Verification (MOV) are the sources of data that enable verification of the status of each indicator. For each project objective and Verifiable Indicator there is a corresponding MOV. Common MOV include project records, interviews of project staff and beneficiaries, data collected by other agencies and surveys.