Innovation Watch Newsletter - Issue 12.

02 - January 26, 2013

ISSN: 1712-9834

Highlights from the last two weeks...

David Forrest is a Canadian writer and strategy consultant. His Integral Strategy process has been widely used to increase collaboration in communities, build social capital, deepen commitment to action, and develop creative strategies to deal with complex challenges. David advises organizations on emerging trends. He uses the term Enterprise Ecology to describe how ecological principles can be applied to competition, innovation, and strategy in business. David is a member of the Professional Writers Association of Canada, the World Future Society, and other futures organizations.

new nanomedicines kill antibiotic-resistant bacteria... Harvard professor says we could clone a Neanderthal... Siri had its origins in the largest AI project in US history... a Swiss scientist plans to build a supercomputer simulation of the human brain... the sharing economy is popping up everywhere... Google's selfdriving car is worth trillions... middle class jobs are being killed by technology... the world's 100 richest billionaires could cure global poverty several times over... the United Nations will consider China's claim to disputed islands in the East China Sea... DARPA plans to lay submersible pods in the world's oceans that can be remotely commanded to launch to the surface... the US plans to build a rare earth research institute... climate change graphs, charts, and maps cause concern... the future is a matter of human choice, not mere prediction... new venture plans a fleet of asteroid-prospecting spacecraft...

More resources ...

a book by Lisa Bodell -- Kill the Company: End the Status Quo, Start an Innovation Revolution... a link to the Project Syndicate website offering thought-provoking commentaries on our changing world... a Kojo Nnamdi show on 3-D printing... a blog post by Thomas W. Malone on collective intelligence... David Forrest Innovation Watch

He is a member of the Advisory Committee of the Institute for Science, Society and Policy at the University of Ottawa.

SCIENCE TRENDS
Top Stories: IBM Vastly Improves Delivery of Nanomeds That Kill Bacteria Where Antibiotics Fail (Venture Beat) - In 2011, IBM researchers and a research group in Singapore showed off a new kind of synthetic, biodegradable nano particle that doctors could use to attack bacteria cells that are resistant to antibiotics. Now, the same group of researchers have made the "nanomedicine" much more practical by delivering it in the form of a cream or gel that you can rub on wounds or inject into infected regions. Call them nanomeds. They could save your life one day. George Church: Can Neanderthals Be Brought Back from the Dead? (Spiegel) - In a SPIEGEL interview, synthetic biology expert George Church of Harvard University explains how DNA will become the building material of the future -- one that can help create virus-resistant human beings and possibly bring back lost species like the Neanderthal. More science trends...

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TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Top Stories: The Inside Story of Siri's Origins -- And Why She Could Overshadow the iPhone (Huffington Post) - The Siri that Apple introduced in October 2011, 16 months after acquiring the technology for a reported $150 to $250 million, had expanded its linguistic range from one to multiple languages. It was scaled to serve millions of people and programmed to operate internationally. It had acquired a voice with which to speak its answers, where before it had offered only written responses. And it was deeply integrated into the iPhone, so that it could tap into about a dozen of Apple's own tools to handle simple tasks like scheduling a meeting, replying to emails or checking the weather. As impressive as those talents were, most failed to realize that Apple's version of Siri lacked many of the features once built into

Previous issues

the program. This, after all, was no ordinary iPhone app, but the progeny of the largest artificial intelligence project in U.S. history: a Defense Department-funded undertaking that sought to build a virtual assistant that could reason and learn. Computer Modelling: Brain in a Box (Nature) - Officially, the Swiss Academy of Sciences meeting in Bern on 20 January was an overview of large-scale computer modelling in neuroscience. Unofficially, it was neuroscientists' first real chance to get answers about Henry Markram's controversial proposal for the Human Brain Project (HBP) -- an effort to build a supercomputer simulation that integrates everything known about the human brain, from the structures of ion channels in neural cell membranes up to mechanisms behind conscious decision-making. Markram, a South-African-born brain electrophysiologist who joined the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) a decade ago, may soon see his ambition fulfilled. More technology trends...

BUSINESS TRENDS
Top Stories: Airbnb and the Unstoppable Rise of the Share Economy (Forbes) - The sharing concept has created markets out of things that wouldn't have been considered monetizable assets before. A few dozen square feet in a driveway can now produce income via Parking Panda. A pooch-friendly room in your house is suddenly a pet penthouse via DogVacay. On Rentoid, an outdoorsy type with a newborn who suddenly notices her camping tent never gets used can rent it out at $10 a day to a city slicker whod otherwise have to buy one. On SnapGoods, a drill lying fallow in a garage can become a $10-a-day income source from a homeowner who just needs to put up some quick drywall. On Liquid, an unused bicycle becomes a way for a traveler to cheaply get around while visiting town for $20 a day. Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions (Forbes) - While the car is certainly cool -- just watch the video below about a 95%-blind man running errands -- the gee-whiz focus suggests that it is just a high-tech dalliance by a couple of brash young multibillionaires, Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin. In fact, the driverless car has broad implications for society, for the economy and for individual businesses. Just in the U.S., the car puts up for grab some $2 trillion a year in revenue and even more market cap. It creates business opportunities that dwarf Google's current search-based business and unleashes existential challenges to market leaders across numerous industries, including car makers, auto insurers, energy companies and others that share in car-related revenue.

More business trends...

SOCIAL TRENDS
Top Stories: Recession, Tech Kill Middle Class Jobs (AP) - Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. What's more, these jobs aren't just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they aren't just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers. They're being obliterated by technology. Year after year, the software that runs computers and an array of other machines and devices becomes more sophisticated and powerful and capable of doing more efficiently tasks that humans have always done. For decades, science fiction warned of a future when we would be architects of our own obsolescence, replaced by our machines; an Associated Press analysis finds that the future has arrived. Billionaires' Fortunes Hinder Fight Against Poverty, Says Oxfam (Guardian) - The vast fortunes made by the world's richest 100 billionaires is driving up inequality and hindering the worlds ability to tackle poverty, according to Oxfam. The charity said the accumulation of wealth and income on an unprecedented scale, often at the expense of secure jobs and decent wages for the poorest, undermined the ability of people who survive on aid or low wages to improve their situation and escape poverty. Oxfam said the world's poorest could be lifted out of poverty several times over should the richest 100 billionaires give away the money they made last year. More social trends...

GLOBAL TRENDS
Top Stories: UN to Consider Validity of China's Claim over Disputed Islands (Reuters) - The United Nations is planning to consider later this year the scientific validity of a claim by China that a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea are part of its territory, although Japan says the world body should not be involved. Tensions over the uninhabited islands -- located near rich fishing grounds and potentially huge oil-and-gas reserves -flared after Japan's government purchased them from a private Japanese owner in September, sparking violent anti-Japanese

protests across China and a military standoff. Taiwan also claims the islands, known as the Diaoyu islands in China, the Senkaku islands in Japan and Tiaoyutai in Taiwan. DARPA Wants to Dot Ocean Floor With Network of Robotic Pods That Can Spy, Explore (Network World) - Scientists at Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency want to develop a system of submersible pods that could reside in the worlds oceans (presumably not in anyone's territorial waters) and be activated for any number of applications days, months or even years later. The Upward Falling Payload (UFP) project, as DARPA calls it, centers on pre-deploying deep-ocean nodes years in advance in forward areas which can be remotely commanded to launch to the surface. More global trends...

ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
Top Stories: US to Build $120 Million Rare Earth Research Institute (BBC) - The Critical Materials Institute will be located in Ames, Iowa. The US wants to reduce its dependency on China, which produces more than 95% of the worlds rare earth elements, and address local shortages. According to the US Geological Survey, there may be deposits of rare earths in 14 US states. Besides being used for hi-tech gadgets, the elements are also crucial for manufacturing low-carbon resources such as wind turbines, solar panels and electric cars, said David Danielson, the US assistant secretary for renewable energy. The 32 Most Alarming Charts from the Government's Climate Change Report (Grist) - Just reading about the government's massive new report outlining what climate change has in store for the U.S. is sobering. In brief: temperature spikes, drought, flooding, less snow, less permafrost. But if you really want to freak out, you should check out the graphs, charts, and maps. For the more visually oriented bunker builders out there, here are the 32 most alarming images from the 1,200-page draft report. More environmental trends...

FUTURE TRENDS
Top Stories:

Jeffrey D. Sachs: Writing the Future (Project Syndicate) What does the future hold for the global economy? Will living standards rise worldwide, as today's poor countries leapfrog technologies to catch up with richer countries? Or will prosperity slip through our fingers as greed and corruption lead us to deplete vital resources and degrade the natural environment on which human well-being depends? Humanity faces no greater challenge than to ensure a world of prosperity rather than a world that lies in ruins. Like a novel with two possible endings, ours is a story yet to be written in this new century. There is nothing inevitable about the spread -- or the collapse -- of prosperity. More than we know (or perhaps care to admit), the future is a matter of human choice, not mere prediction. New Venture 'to Mine Asteroids' (BBC) - A new venture is joining the effort to extract mineral resources on asteroids. The announcement of plans by Deep Space Industries to exploit the rare metals present in the space rocks turns asteroid mining into a two-horse race. The other venture, Planetary Resources, went public with its proposals last year. Advocates of asteroid mining hope it could turn into a trillion-dollar business, but some scientists are highly sceptical of the idea. Deep Space Industries wants to send a fleet of asteroid-prospecting spacecraft out into the Solar System to hunt for resources. These spacecraft, which the company has dubbed "Fireflies", would use low-cost CubeSat components and benefit from discounted delivery to space by ride-sharing on the launch of larger communications satellites. More future trends...

From the publisher...

Kill the Company: End the Status Quo, Start an Innovation Revolution
By Lisa Bodell Read more...

Trends and Futures... New Books - New and not-yet-published books on trends and futures. A Web Resource... Project Syndicate - Project Syndicate brings original, engaging, and thought-provoking commentaries by esteemed leaders and thinkers from around the world to readers everywhere. By offering incisive perspectives on our changing world from those who are shaping its economics, politics, science, and culture, Project Syndicate has created an unrivaled venue for informed public debate.

Multimedia... 3-D Printing: Revolutionizing Manufacturing (Kojo Nnamdi) - Many technologists believe advances in 3-D printing will revolutionize manufacturing. With the right software, in-home printers can already produce unique homewares, machine parts and architectural models. In the future, these devices could re-wire and democratize the global manufacturing economy. Kojo Nnamdi and his guests explore the future of 3-D printing and possible intellectual property battles looming on Capitol Hill. (52m 54s) The Blogosphere... Collective Intelligence (EDGE) - Thomas W. Malone "Pretty much everything I'm doing now falls under the broad umbrella that I'd call collective intelligence. What does collective intelligence mean? It's important to realize that intelligence is not just something that happens inside individual brains. It also arises with groups of individuals. In fact, I'd define collective intelligence as groups of individuals acting collectively in ways that seem intelligent. By that definition, of course, collective intelligence has been around for a very long time. Families, companies, countries, and armies: those are all examples of groups of people working together in ways that at least sometimes seem intelligent."

Email: future@innovationwatch.com