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When Will Sustainable Economic Recovery Really Begin?: Driving Forward Together
When Will Sustainable Economic Recovery Really Begin?: Driving Forward Together
whiteclarkeauto.com
email: phalliday@whiteclarkeauto.com
Contents
Introduction European New Car Registrations Changing Car Parc The UK Economy Banking Crises The UK Automotive Industry Car Parc Used Car Market Vehicle Manufacture Some Conclusions 4 5 9 10 14 14 16 17 17 18
Introduction
The view of Europe or Eurozone political leadership has not been very positive during the first half of 2012, perhaps because no group of political leaders have had to face such circumstances before. The sovereign debt crisis persists, and indeed grows with hints of contagion embracing major countries like Spain and Italy. The smaller problems of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus seem to have been pushed into the long grass as new problems with new magnitudes emerge. Even China is getting involved. While Chancellor Merkel has won her critical case with the German Constitutional Court regarding borrowings, the real pain still has to be borne as weaker euro economies are pressured to balance income and expenditure. Although European Central Bank (ECB) intervention with the promise of supporting the Euro has lifted some gloom, has it merely created more borrowed time to resolve Euro issues without offering a sustainable solution? At the time of writing many a banker is sitting on the edge of their corporate seats waiting to see if, or perhaps more likely when, Spain seeks an ECB bailout but that may be a topic for the next Review. Many a sceptic would claim the urgency to resolve the situation has not been helped by the US Federal Reserve Board indicating it will buy $40 billion mortgage bonds every month until the US unemployment starts to drop.
Centre for Automotive Management, The University of Buckingham
Is it only Germanys need for an artificially weak Euro to protect its export business that keeps the currency on anything like an even keel? Global markets and lenders will eventually turn on the Euro unless a sustainable resolution is forthcoming sooner rather than later. The sky is dark with chickens soon coming home to roost. The underlying concern is Germany will not be able to prop up the Euro unless every country plays the game and introduces a period of austerity to bring spending into line with income rather than rely on borrowing against Germanys credit rating.
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16 15
Millions of c ars
14 13
13.6
12 11
Source; ACEA
Europes new car registrations peaked at 16 million units in 2007, falling to 14.7 million in 2008. While expensive scrappage schemes propped up new car volumes at 14.5 million in 2009, they fell to 13.8 million in 2010 and 13.6 million in 2011 some two million units below the five year average before the 2008/2009 economic downturn. Figure 2 shows the quarterly new car sales trend across the EU; it does not make happy reading. Figure 2; Quarterly European New Car Registrations; 2010-2012
4,000 9.7 15 10 3,500 T hous and units 1.6 -2.2 3,000 -7.1 -13.2 -8.9 -1.7 -4.0 -7.3 -5 0 % c hang e year on year 5
5.5
-10 -15
2,500
2,000
-20
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Source; ACEA
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5
3,086
3,428
3,782
3,215
3,733
3,064
3,697
3,670
3,112
3,469
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45.0
40
43.2
43.2
34.2
33.8 32.8
33.90 32.7
34.2 32.4
34.9 33.9
34.9 32.9
35.2 32.9
37.1
38.8
30
32.7
32.4
31.7
20
15.7
15.9
14.8 12.7
16.3 13.7 12.9 13.1 10.9 13.1 10.9 12.4 14.0 10.9
17.0
15.1
16.1
16.6
10
12.7
12.6
12.3
10.1
11.5
11.5
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 J an-Mar 2011
Small
Lower medium
Upper medium
Executive
Source: ACEA
A couple of points are worth highlighting: Since 2000, the small car sector has moved from 32.7% of sales to a market leading 43.2%, passing the lower-medium segment in 2006. Buyers can find essential luxuries in a small car once restricted to larger cars. The lower-medium segment; has slipped from a leading position of 34.2% in 2005 to a 28.3% share of the market in 2011
Centre for Automotive Management, The University of Buckingham
The upper-medium category declined from 15.7% and back to 16.6% of market. Growth of the upper-medium category largely mirrors the decline in the Executive segment from 12.7% to 11.5%, although it had a better patch when it peaked at 14.0% in 2007.
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Sou
-1600000 -1400000 -1200000 -1000000 -800000 -600000 -400000
Volkswagen Volvo
-200000 0 200000 400000 600000
rce; ACEA/Buckingham
The chart shows the significant drop in the size of the parc of younger cars for many major EU players. Serious inroads have been made by new brands and manufacturers as well as the marked impact of lower new car sales of traditional marques.
Centre for Automotive Management, The University of Buckingham
Such an analysis is perhaps a little unnerving, there are several relevant issues; New, typically non-European brands are widely accepted and many are regarded as value for money in a period of economic downturn. Buyers demand more radical models revolution not evolution with many innovative models produced by non-traditional players. A challenge by a small spectrum of quality European producers to build market share. It is against this evolving market, with reduced cash flows and challenged profits, that car manufacturers seek to rebuild their positions and deal with an excess of installed manufacturing capacity.
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The UK Economy
The United Kingdom economy failed to improve in the second quarter of 2012. Indeed, the 0.5% reduction in GDP versus quarter one has plunged the United Kingdom into it longest sustained recession since the Second World War. The Jubilee, Olympic Games and royal topless exposure may have offered short-term diversions but fundamental problems still have to be resolved. More than a decade of focusing on financial services as a main industry, and the master of the universe syndrome, has left the country with a hollowed-out manufacturing base. Figure 5; UKs Growth was Strong Before Economic Crisis
Average Annual % Growth Rates Q4 1997 - Q4 2007
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
1.6 3.2 2.8 3.1
2.2
1.4 0.9
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
US
UK
Figure 5 shows that, with the exception of Canada, the UK had the highest average annual GDP growth of the G7 countries, averaging 3.1% over 10 years from the end of 1997 to the end of 2007 significantly higher than France, Germany and Italy for that decade.
Centre for Automotive Management, The University of Buckingham
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2.4
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Canada France Germany Italy Japan US UK
0.4 1.3
0.8
Source; OECD/ONS
Figure 6 shows how the UKs economy is struggling to recover following the end of the first period of recession in 2009, its GDP growing just 0.8% lagging well behind Germany, Japan and the United States. Perhaps more concerning than the poor position of the UK economy compared with other advanced economies is the tardy recovery from the most recent recessions compared with the past. The chart in Figure 7 indicates the relative speed of recovery compared with recent recessions. Figure 7; GDP output level across post-war recessions (Start of recession = 100)
110
100.0
100 96.6 95
1990s
Source; ONS
Contents
UK recovery is slower than it has been since records began. Whatever actions government takes appears to have relatively little impact or the statistics do not have the sensitivity to highlight it.
11
103.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-2.1 -2.1
-2.0
-2.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.0
-1.0
-0.5
-0.1
Source; ONS
Figure 8 shows the UK GDP trend over the past five years, with Quarter one 2012 below the zero mark and the second quarter falling by 0.5% putting the economy into recession for three quarters in succession. In the third quarter there are various reports emerging of better times ahead while other forecasters predict a recovery in quarter four, others do not expect recovery before 2013. Figure 9 shows some significant inflation seesawing over the past five years with a nasty, recent kick up in July 2012. Figure 9 RPI & CPI; 2006-2012
%
6.0 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0
Q 06 1 Q 06 2 20 Q 3 06 20 Q 4 07 20 Q 1 07 20 Q 2 07 20 Q 3 07 20 Q 4 08 20 Q 1 08 20 Q 2 08 20 Q 3 08 20 Q 4 09 20 Q 1 09 20 Q 2 09 20 Q 3 09 20 Q 4 10 20 Q 1 10 20 Q 2 10 20 Q 3 10 20 Q 4 11 20 Q 1 11 20 Q 2 11 20 Q 3 11 20 Q 4 12 20 Q 1 12 Q 2
n Ja
20
06
n Ja
20
07
n Ja
20
08
n Ja
20
09
n Ja
20
10
n Ja
20
11
n Ja
20
12
Source; ONS
R PI
C PI
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5.0
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Banking Crises
A banking crisis, if thats all it is, would be manageable; but the UK appears to have several crises running in parallel as well as a disturbing ethos. Consider them banking malpractice; collapsed IT systems; Libor rate fixing; mis-selling products for starters. Has the traditional British banking industry lost touch with its customer base? Trust is at an all time low. Traditional bank managers have disappeared. From being a looked-up-to profession, banking has sunk to the bottom of the pile in the space of a couple of years despite the disproportionate rewards. My word is my bond has been replaced by the ethics of the rampant ginger tomcat. The concern is sacrifice of longer-term reputational damage on the altar of a short-term profit before everything culture. Is reputation irrecoverable? Rumours of a boom in the sale of sackcloth and ashes in the investment banking community would appear to be somewhat premature. There is a serious risk of knee-jerk reaction and the banking system becoming over-regulated. Estimates suggest that Bank reserves, currently 30% higher than regulators require, and funds held by major companies represent perhaps a trillion pounds of cash. Will this be invested in the UK or abroad?
Some forecasters have lifted their full-year 2012 predictions to two million units. The SMMT predicts the UKs new car market will rise 1.6% to 1.97 million in 2012 and by a further 1.0% to 1.99 million units in 2013. The Buckingham Automotive Team is, until clearly proven otherwise, sticking to its ongoing forecast of 1.94 million units for 2012. CAM has a fallback position that if the pound; Euro relationship remains where it is mid year and, if European new car sales do not pick up, European manufacturers may build more right-hand drive cars, and flood the UK market with amazing deals towards year end. A secondary let-out is the number of vehicles being self- and pre-registered within the new car sector.
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2.4
2.2 2.0
2.20
Millions of c ars
1.8 1.6
1.4 1.2
1.71
1.92
1.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Scrappage Deals
Source; SMMT/Buckingham
The relatively modest changes in new car sales hide, as in the case of the European picture commented on previously, a slight shift in the market in the United Kingdom.
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20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Car Parc
Figure 11 shows a significant drop in four major brands (Vauxhall, Ford, Peugeot and Renault) five year car parcs, 2003-2007 versus 2007-2011 with other well-recognised brands losing significant ground as well. On the other side of the equation, franchises which have shown a rise in the parc of 0-5 year-old cars are essentially new brands Kia, Hyundai and Skoda. The implications for the industry are significant: What can the slipping brands do to redress declining car parcs? What changes do declining brands need to take to protect profitability and customer service? Can the declining brands form sufficient strategic alliance or introduce new products to counter the downage? What actions might rising brands take to continue building their market position product, brand, distribution, pricing? The chart is symptomatic of the steep fall in the number of new cars sold in recent years, which has seen the average of cars in the UK car parc accelerate to 7.44 years its oldest mark for over twenty-five years. Figure 11; UK Change in 5 Year Car parcs; 2003-2007 vs 20072011
Alfa Romeo Audi BMW Chevrolet Citroen Fiat Ford Honda Hyundai Jaguar Kia Land Rover Mazda Mercedes MINI Peugeot Renault SEAT Skoda Suzuki Toyota Vauxhall Volkswagen Volvo
-400,000 -300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000
Source; SMMT/Buckingham
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Nissan
Vehicle Manufacture
Centre for Automotive Management, The University of Buckingham
To introduce a more positive note into an otherwise gloomy review, UK car trade figures have achieved a net positive balance in terms of value over the past 12 months, the first time since 1975. Output is running at 1.4 million units. At the time of writing both BMW, MINI and Land Rover Jaguar have announced significant investments and created new employment opportunities with much of the new production earmarked for export. More of that in the next Quarterly Review.
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Some Conclusions
One hates to sign off with a negative note but the news coming out of China regarding economic development is currently not good. Growth rate, measured slightly differently to the way it is measured in Europe, has slipped back and there have already been two cuts in interest rate. While any mature economy would give their hind teeth for Chinas growth in GDP, it is barely enough to keep ahead of the growing population. The one positive is that the Chinese government will take drastic actions if necessary to protect economic growth and contain any civil unrest but what might that mean for automotive imports and exports? The European and UK new and used car markets are under threat from reduced and changing markets which, in turn, are at the mercy of the broader economic situation and the financial services sector. While there may have been some turn-rounds in the automotive sector, these must, until proven otherwise, be seen as purely short-term movements. New and innovative strategies may be needed to protect and develop market position. Remember, this is now a truly global industry and there are new players preparing to enter players who may work to very different rules and timescales.
Professor Peter N C Cooke Professor of Automotive Management The University of Buckingham September 2012
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email: phalliday@whiteclarkeauto.com