NEED TO KNOW: POLITICS

Vice Versa
For years, the GOP has had Democrats on the defensive over hot-button cultural issues. But the tide appears to be turning.
By Naureen Khan

Posterized: Gay marriage supporters hail Obama.

If the Obama campaign is skittish about the presidents support for gay marriage, you wouldnt know it from the blitz publicizing his unexpected declaration. The campaign has trumpeted his decision in social media, in fundraising e-mails, and in a hardhitting Web ad titled Mitt Romney: Backwards on Equality. President Obama also took a starstudded victory lap through the homes of giddy donors in deep-blue enclaves around the countryand showed up on The View. The day after the announcement, in Washington state, where a new law legalizing same-sex marriage may be on the ballot in November, Obama earned cheers every time he alluded to gay rights. Nor did he neglect other hot-button cultural battles, making sure to touch on Planned Parenthood funding, insurance coverage for contraception, equal pay for women, and a path to citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants. All Mitt Romney wanted to do, meanwhile, was talk about the economy. The presumptive Republican nominee looked visibly annoyed when he was peppered with questions on social

issues during an interview with a local Denver affiliate on the day of Obamas announcement. First it was same-sex marriage (hes opposed to it); then in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants (nay on that one, too). It was a request for his thoughts on medical marijuana that pushed the former Massachusetts governor over the edge. Arent there issues of significance youd like to talk about? Romney asked, clearly exasperated. The economy? The growth of jobs? The need to put people back to work? The challenges of Iran? The contrasting approaches reflect a remarkable Freaky Friday-style role reversal on wedge social issues in 2012. It used to be that God, guns, gays, and abortion were automatic topics for Republicans to rile up the base and paint the other side as out-of-touch elites. In 2004, conservatives sparked evangelical turnout by advocating a federal ban on gay marriage and putting gay-marriage questions on the ballot in 13 states. That helped push President George W. Bush to reelection, despite tepid approval ratings and unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But now, with the conversation over culture refocused on such topics as access to contraception, LGBT rights, and the fate of the nations 11 million illegal immigrants, its the GOP presidential candidate and many in the Republican establishment who are trying to change the subject. On the Republican side, especially after the tone of the Republican primary, theres an eagerness not to seem hard-edged or harsh on the social issues, said William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute. There has been no hot rhetoric from the Romney campaign. Part of it is that Romney is uncomfortable playing the culture-warrior role. Campaigning in North Carolina a few days after the state overwhelmingly passed a constitutional ban on samesex marriage, he didnt mention the issue at all. Reaching out to evangelicals this month at Liberty University, founded by the late Jerry Falwell, a prime opportunity to fan the flames, Romney devoted exactly one sentence to gay marriage in his commencement address. The larger factor for Romney and his party, however, seems to be a growing recognition that on many of these social issues, they are fighting against both public opinion and demographic trends. Conversely, the Obama campaign and Democrats see these issues as a means to re-create some of that 2008 magic with core constituencies: women, young professionals, youths, and white-collar voters. Gay marriage is perhaps the most dramatic example. Gallups tracking of the issue shows that 54 percent of American adults consider gay and lesbian relationships morally acceptable, up from 38 percent in 2002. Support for same-sex marriage stands at 50 percent, up from 42 percent in 2004. A CBS News/New York Times poll this week showed softer support, with 38 percent favoring gay marriage and 24 percent civil unions. But the trajectory is unmistakable, as some in the GOP recognize. A memo written by former George W. Bush pollster Jan van Lohuizen and circulated among Republican strategists last week advised a moderate position, for the sake of survival. R. Clarke Cooper, executive director

of the Log Cabin Republicans, a group advocating gay rights, noted, Its 2012, not 2004. The strategy from 12 years ago is not applicable today. On immigration, Republicans have likewise found themselves in a tricky spot. Although many in the party say they need to court the ever-growing population of Hispanic voters, particularly in key swing states such as Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico, theyre hemmed in by the hard-nosed immigration positions that some in the GOP have staked out. Similarly, the bruising battle over insurance coverage for contraception gave Obama a potent talking point among women. Republican strategists say that for a president who doesnt have much of an economic case, with unemployment hovering just above 8 percent, social issues are a cheap diversionand an ineffective one at that. Voters have consistently ranked the economy as the most important issue in November. Everyday Americans have to live in this economy, said GOP strategist Ed Goeas. Theres no such thing as diverting their attention. Moreover, many voters in Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, and other swing states identify themselves as social conservatives, and Obamas gay-marriage pronouncement is unlikely to please them. The CBS News/New York Times poll also found that 26 percent of those surveyed said they would be less likely to vote for the president as a result, versus the 16 percent who said they would be more likely. But those findings dont mean that, in the short-term at least, Democrats will hold their fire in this new-wave cultural war. They seem to believe they have history on their side. This article appeared in the Saturday, May 19, 2012 edition of National Journal. Available: http://www.nationaljournal.com/member/magazine/is-the-gop-s-culture-war-waning-20120517