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Market Outlook

January 30, 2013

Dealers Diary
The Indian market is expected to open flat to positive, mirroring flat opening in the
SGX Nifty and positive opening trades in most of the Asian bourses. Asian stocks
are trading higher as South Koreas industrial output has climbed unexpectedly.
The US stocks edged higher over the course of the trading session on Tuesday. The
strength that emerged on Wall Street reflected a positive reaction to the some of
the latest earnings news, although buying interest remained somewhat subdued.
The European markets ended the trading session on Tuesday with mixed results, as
investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. FOMC announcement due today.
Investors are also watching for some key U.S. economic data this week, including
GDP on Wednesday and the jobs report for January, which is due to be released
Friday.
Meanwhile, the Indian markets ended a volatile session lower on Tuesday after the
RBI reduced repo rate by 25 basis points, as expected widely, for the first time in
nine months to support the government's renewed thrust to the reforms agenda.
The central bank also unexpectedly reduced the CRR rate by 25 basis points, but
signaled there was less room for aggressive policy rate cuts in future due to high
inflation and the high level of current account and fiscal deficits.

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

(0.6) (112.4) 19,991

Nifty

(0.4)

(24.9)

6,050

MID CAP

(0.6)

(39.9)

6,936

SMALL CAP

(0.9)

(65.1)

7,097

BSE HC

(0.3)

(26.0)

7,960

BSE PSU

(0.7)

(53.1)

7,590

BANKEX

(0.5)

(74.2) 14,589

AUTO

(1.1) (125.5) 11,060

METAL

(0.5)

OIL & GAS

(1.4) (127.4)

9,299

BSE IT

(0.5)

(32.1)

6,411

(Pts)

(Close)

Global Indices

Dow Jones
NASDAQ

Chg (%)

0.5

(51.6) 10,577

72.5 13,954

(0.0)

(0.6)

3,154

FTSE

0.7

44.8

6,339

Nikkei

0.4

42.4

10,867

Markets Today

Hang Seng

(0.1)

(16.7)

23,655

The trend deciding level for the day is 20,055 / 6,068 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 20,140 20,288 / 6,094 6,137 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
20,055 / 6,068 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,906 19,821 / 6,024 5,999 levels.

Straits Times

(0.4)

(14.2)

3,260

0.5

12.5

2,359

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

0.5

0.2

$52.5

Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

WIT

(0.8)

(0.1)

$9.4

SENSEX

19,821

19,906

20,055

20,140

20,288

IBN

1.6

0.7

$47.0

NIFTY

5,999

6,024

6,068

6,094

6,137

HDB

(0.6)

(0.2)

$40.2

News Analysis

RBI cuts Repo, CRR by 25bp each


TTMT plans to hire over 500 people for R&D at JLR
3QFY2013 Result Review: Sterlite, Idea, Dabur, Crompton Greaves, United
Phosphorous, Indoco Remedies
3QFY2013 Result Preview: Colgate, Central Bank, IPCA Labs, KEC, Ashoka
Buildcon, PVR, Jyoti Structures

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (January 28, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

FII

3,296
422

MFs

Net

MTD

YTD

2,485

810

18,932

18,932

773

(351)

(3,881)

(3,881)

FII Derivatives (January 29, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Index Futures

3,821

3,151

670

Open Interest
9,205

Stock Futures

9,999

9,416

583

35,464

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

Losers

Price (`)

chg (%)

146

6.5

Unitech

35

(5.9)

1,476

4.3

Opto Circuits

80

(4.8)

Adani Ports
Axis Bank

Company

Price (`)

chg (%)

Eicher Motors

2,717

3.1

Bank of India

341

(4.1)

Strides Arco

1,076

2.7

HDIL

80

(3.9)

468

2.6

Reliance Comm

81

(3.9)

Sun TV Network

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Shanghai Com
Indian ADR

Advances / Declines

BSE

NSE

Advances

786

529

960

966

1,230

84

Declines
Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)

BSE

2,609

NSE

14,975

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

RBI cuts Repo, CRR by 25bp each


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Third Quarter Monetary Policy Review for
FY2013 reduced the repo rate by 25bp from 8.0% to 7.75%. Consequently, the
reverse repo rate stands adjusted at 6.75% and the marginal standing facility
(MSF) rate and bank rate stand adjusted at 8.75%. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)
too has been reduced by 25bp from 4.25% to 4.0% of banks net demand and
time liabilities (NDTL) since liquidity remains tight and wedge between credit and
deposit growth persists. The CRR reduction is expected to inject around `18,000cr
of primary liquidity into the banking system.
The RBI has further scaled its growth forecast for FY2013 downwards to 5.5% from
5.8% in its October policy review. Growth is likely to remain subdued for the fiscal
year on the back of slowdown in private consumption, investment and exports. In
light of the slowdown in growth and moderation in inflation, the RBIs policy stance
is increasingly shifting towards supporting growth. At the same time, we believe
that the RBI still remains cautious in its approach on account of any negative
surprise emanating from inflation and the twin deficits, ie current account and
fiscal deficit. The RBI has positively scaled its inflation forecast for FY2013
downwards to 6.8% from 7.5% in its October policy review. Going ahead in
FY2014, the RBI expects inflation to remain range-bound at the current level.
Earlier during the month the government partially deregulated diesel prices by
allowing oil companies to hike retail prices gradually while allowing full price
adjustment for bulk consumers. We believe that this move strengthens the
governments efforts towards fiscal consolidation but release of suppressed
inflation is likely to lend an upward bias to inflation going ahead. In that context,
we believe that favorable movement in international crude oil prices and INR are
pertinent for further moderation in inflation.
We believe that the RBI has adopted a balanced approach weighing the growthinflation dynamics in its policy stance and it marks a material shift from its earlier
hawkish policy stance. We believe that the hike in diesel prices is likely to put some
pressure on inflation in the near-term but it bodes positively for fiscal adjustment
and inflationary pressures in the medium-term. Further, concerted efforts towards
fiscal consolidation are likely to give the central bank more headroom to ease
policy rates. We maintain our view on reduction in repo rate by about 100bp in
2013.

TTMT plans to hire over 500 people for R&D at JLR


Tata Motors (TTMT) in a US filing has indicated that it plans to hire over 500
engineers and designers at Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) by March 2013, to
support its new product development program. Post the hiring, the total strength of
JLRs R&D team will increase to around 5,500. The recent announcement to hire
additional employees follows companys decision to hire 800 employees at Solihull
plant to support the introduction of new model program. JLR has been on a hiring
spree over the last one year and its total headcount across the world has gone up
to 25,368 as on September 30, 2012 from 20,923 as on September 30, 2011.
This bodes well with the companys intentions of increasing capacity at its existing
plants and increasing spending on its research and development initiatives. JLR
has recently announced a hike in its capital expenditure for FY2014 to GBP2.75bn

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Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

from GBP2bn in FY2013. We see JLRs employee expense as a percentage of sales


increasing by 150-160bp in FY2013 as a result of the hiring spree that the
company has undertaken. This would also factor in the recent wage hike that the
company gave to its UK employees in November 2012. We expect JLRs margins
to contract by ~100bp in FY2013 led by increase in employee expenditure and
unfavorable product-mix. However, softening commodity prices coupled with
favorable currency movement would arrest further decline in margins.
Meanwhile, Jaguar Land Rover Automotive plc, the parent company of the JLR
group of companies and a subsidiary of Tata Motors, has raised US$500mn
through senior notes due 2023 at a coupon of 5.625%. The senior notes will be
guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by JLR Ltd, Land Rover, JLR North
America LLC, Land Rover Exports Ltd and JLR Exports Ltd. The company intends to
utilize the net proceeds towards general corporate purposes, including the ongoing capital expenditure plans. Currently, we have an Accumulate rating on the
stock with an SOTP based target price of `337.

IDBI Bank reduces lending and deposits rate by 25bp


IDBI Bank has become the first bank to cut lending and deposit rates by
25bp, following the announcement of the RBI to reduce Repo rate and CRR by
25bp each. The new base rate for the bank would be 10.25%, effective from
February 1, 2013. The benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR) and fixed deposit
rates on select maturities are also reduced by 25bp. In our view, apart from
impacting loan growth, reduced lending rates are also expected to augur well for
subsiding some of the asset quality pressures. As we understand, other banks are
likely to take a call on reducing rates in coming days, post the ALCO (Asset
Liability Committee) meeting. At the CMP, the bank is trading at valuations of 0.7x
FY2014E P/ABV, (0.9x adjusting for the SASF). We currently recommend Neutral
rating on the stock.

3QFY2013 Result Review


Sterlite Industries (CMP: `113, TP: -, Upside: -)
Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported disappointing 3QFY2013 results. Both, the topline as well as net profit were lower than expected, mainly due to lower-thanexpected performance from the copper segment. Net sales increased 4.4% yoy to
`10,692cr below our estimate of `11,288cr. Net sales growth was mainly driven
by increase in Aluminium and Zinc segment revenues. Aluminium, and Zinc
segment revenues grew 3.9% and 11.4% yoy to `823cr and `4,182cr,
respectively. On the operating front, Sterlites EBITDA was flat yoy at `2,327cr;
EBITDA margin was at 21.8% (below our estimate of 22.8%) as higher profitability
from other segments was offset by lower profitability from copper and power
segments. Copper segments profitability was below our estimate as its EBIT
declined 50.8% yoy to `160cr due to lower Tc/Rc charges and lower by-product
realizations. The aluminium segment reported a positive EBIT of `8.9cr compared
to a loss of `23cr in 3QFY2012.

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Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

The company reported an exceptional item relating to forex loss of `63cr,


compared to a forex loss of `307cr in 3QFY2012. The interest costs during the
quarter rose by 13.1% yoy to `227cr and other income grew by 6.4% yoy to
`859cr. However, tax rate decreased to 15.1% compared to 23.4% in 3QFY2012,
thereby leading the adjusted net profit to increase by 2.7% yoy to `1,254cr, which
was below our estimate of `1,524cr. The reported net profit increased 30.4% yoy
to `1,191cr.
Balco has received stage-II forest clearance for its coal mine which will result in
significant cost savings once it is operational. Sterlite expects to commence
production from 1QFY2014 which is optimistic in our view. Considering the
ongoing process of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources,
valuation of Sterlite will mirror the valuation of consolidated company, Sesa
Sterlite. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

(x)

EV/
EBITDA
(x)

EV/
Sales
(x)

6.7

0.7

3.4

0.8

6.0

0.7

2.8

0.7

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

FY13E 42,891

22.8

5,684

16.9

11.7

FY14E 45,864

23.8

6,300

18.7

11.7

Idea (CMP: `114 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Idea Cellular (Idea) reported its 3QFY2013, which were in-line with our estimates
on the revenue front but disappointed on the operating as well as profitability
front. The revenues came in at `5,579cr, up 5.0% qoq, because of 7.0% qoq rise
in MOU to 384min. Overall network traffic grew by 5.2% qoq to 132bn min.
Overall subscriber base of Idea reduced by 1.6mn to 113.9mn in 3QFY2013.
ARPM declined by 0.5% qoq to `0.411/min due to reduction of VAS share in
revenues to 13.6% from 14.6% which was a major negative surprise in the results.
EBITDA margin declined by 36bp qoq to 26.4%. PAT came in at `229cr, down
4.8% qoq, impacted by higher interest charges. The company remain surrounded
by regulatory uncertainties related to spectrum and license fee payments. We
maintain Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

21,797

26.9

1,036

3.1

7.4

36.2

2.7

8.1

2.2

FY2014E

23,142

27.7

1,537

4.7

9.8

24.4

2.4

7.3

2.0

Dabur India (CMP: `130/TP:/Upside:-)


Dabur India (Dabur) posted a 12.3% yoy growth in top-line to `1,631cr. In terms
of category, Foods grew by 22.1% yoy while Home & Personal care grew by 15.7%
yoy. Hair Care portfolio grew by 13.9%, while shampoos grew by 29.6% yoy. The
domestic consumer business posted a volume growth of 9.5% on a yoy basis. OPM
rose by 126bp yoy to 16.6% aided by a 219bp yoy improvement in gross margins.
The companys Advertising and Promotion expenditure as a percentage of sales
rose by 77bp yoy to 14.4%. Bottom-line rose by 22.2% yoy to `211cr aided by
healthy operational performance and decline in finance costs (down 57.5% yoy) to
`7.8cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Y/E

Sales

OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

FY2013E

6,124

FY2014E

7,101

PAT EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

17.0

811 4.7

44.5

27.9

11.8

22.0

3.7

16.8

944 5.4

41.4

23.9

9.2

19.0

3.2

(` cr)

Crompton Greaves (CMP: `109/TP: Under review)


For 3QFY2013, Crompton Greaves top-line performance was below our
expectations and street estimates, coming in at `2,972cr, a decline of 1.9% yoy.
Sales were subdued across all segments with industrial segment being the worst
performer, recording a 6.2% yoy decline to `452cr. The restructuring at Belgium
has led to EBIT losses of `105cr in power segment which has dragged down OPM
by 596bp yoy to 0.1%. Consequently, the company reported a loss of `68cr. The
company also incurred additional one off loss of `121cr (due to VRS scheme
package offered for downsizing of Belgium operations). Currently the stock is
under review.
Y/E

Sales OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

FY2013E
FY2014E

12,320

5.5

275

4.3

7.4

14,390

7.2

501

7.8

12.6

P/BV EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

25.4

1.8

10.5

0.6

14.0

1.7

7.1

0.5

United Phosphorous (CMP: `137/ TP: `170/Upside: 24%)


For 3QFY2013, United Phosphorous reported top-line of `2255cr, a growth of
20.5% yoy. The sales growth during the period was lead by the international
markets, which grew by 23%yoy, while the domestic markets grew by 5%yoy
during the period. In exports, USA and Latin America, were main drivers,
registering a growth of 44% yoy and 25% yoy respectively. Overall, the volumes
during the quarter rose by 15% yoy, while price variance and exchange
contributed around 2% and 4% respectively. On the operating front, even though
the Gross Profit Margins expended by 383bps during the period on back of the
improved sales mix, however, the significant rise in other expenses, aided the
margins to decline by 214bps. However, the net profit still posted a 54.3% yoy,
growth aided by other income, higher income from associates and lower taxation
during the quarter. The net profit came in at `173.5cr V/s `112.4cr during the last
corresponding period. Currently, we maintain our buy recommendation on the
stock with a price target of `170.
Y/E
March
FY2013E
FY2014E

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Sales OPM
(` cr)

(%)

8,421 16.5
9,263 16.5

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

695 15.0 15.6


787 17.0 15.5

9.1
8.0

1.3
1.2

5.2
4.4

0.9
0.7

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Indoco Remedies (CMP: `63/ TP: Under review)


For 3QFY2013, Indoco Remedies reported results below expectations. While the
top-line came in at `150cr V/s `185cr expected during the period, registering a
growth of 6.0% . The sales growth during the period was impacted by the low
domestic and exports growth, which posted a growth of 11.0% and 1.2%
respectively. On the operating front, the lower sales during the period impacted
the OPMs which came in very low at 10.8% V/s expectation of 16.4%, even
though the Gross Profit Margins expended by 188bps during the period on back
of the improved sales mix. Consequently, the net profit came in at `7.4cr V/s
`18.5cr expected. On the yoy basis, the net profit dipped by 10.7%. Currently, the
stock is under review.
Y/E

Sales OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

685 15.2
837 15.2

68
82

7.4 16.4
8.9 17.0

8.3
7.0

1.3
1.1

6.5
5.7

1.0
0.9

FY2014E

P/BV EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

3QFY2013 Result Preview


Colgate (CMP: `1,365/TP:-/Upside:-)
Colgate is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. The company is
expected to post a 14.3% yoy growth in topline to `787cr. OPM is expected to
decline marginally by 46bp yoy to 21.0%. Bottomline is expected to grow by 7.7%
yoy to `126cr. We maintain a neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT EPS
(` cr)

(`)

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

3,146

20.5

495 36.4 101.9

37.5

34.7

29.7

5.7

FY2014E

3,573

21.4

578 42.5

32.1

29.1

24.9

5.0

98.5

Central Bank - (CMP: `85 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Central Bank is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the
bank to report a NII growth of 24.3% yoy to `1,465cr. Non-interest income for the
bank is expected to decline by 2.2% to `349cr. Operating expenses are expected
to increase by 6.7% yoy to `984cr, which would aid operating profit to grow by
35.3% on a yoy basis at `831cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to decline by
21.1% yoy, and would result in Net profit of `349cr for the quarter, more than
triple on a yoy basis (on low base of 3QFY2012). At the CMP, the stock trades at
valuations of 0.7x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on
the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

7,252

2.5

1,388

16.8

94.2

0.5

13.1

5.0

0.9

FY2014E

8,236

2.6

1,726

21.4 115.9

0.6

14.8

3.9

0.7

March

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Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

IPCA Labs (CMP: `488/ TP: -/Upside: -%)


We estimate Ipca Laboratories' top line to grow by 21.5% to `731cr for
3QFY2013. The OPM is expected to decline by 300bp yoy to 21.5%. Inspite, of the
same adjusted Net Profit is expected to grow by 45.5% yoy, on back of top-line.
We maintain our neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

FY2013E
FY2014E

(%)

2,850 21.0
3,474 21.0

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

377 29.9 26.7 16.3


470 37.3 26.4 13.1

3.7
2.9

10.6
8.7

2.2
1.8

KEC International (CMP: `62/ TP: `78/Upside: 26%)


For 3QFY2013, KEC International (KEC) is expected to register a strong top-line
growth of 18% yoy to `1,722cr on the back of strong execution of its robust order
book. However, on the EBITDA front, the company's margin is expected to contract
by ~146bp yoy to 6.3% on account of low margin orders in new segments. We
expect PAT to decline by 26.9% to `33cr on account of margin pressure and
elevated interest cost. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `78.
Y/E

Sales OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BV EV/EBITDA
(x)

(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

FY2013E

6,909

6.2

138

5.4

17.0

11.5

1.3

5.8

0.4

FY2014E

7,907

7.2

226

8.8

23.6

7.5

1.2

5.0

0.4

Ashoka Buildcon (CMP: `204 / TP: `286 / Upside: 38%)


For 3QFY2013, Ashoka Buildcon (ABL) is expected to post a robust growth of
47.8% yoy on the consolidated revenue front to `522cr on the back of underconstruction captive road BOT projects, which will drive its E&C revenue. The E&C
segment will continue to dominate the company's revenue by contributing `405cr
(77.7%), while the BOT segment's share is expected to be `117cr. EBITDAM is
expected to come in at 23.0% (19.6%), registering a growth of 341bp yoy. On the
back of healthy execution we expect earnings to come at `54cr for 3QFY2013. We
maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `286.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

FY2013E

2,032

22.4

FY2014E

2,311

22.4

PAT

(%) (` cr)

EPS ROE

P/E P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

142

27.0

13.0

13.0

0.9

8.6

1.9

166

31.6

13.4

13.4

0.8

9.9

2.2

PVR (CMP: `276/TP: -/Upside: - %)


For 3QFY2013, we expect PVR to report robust 36.5% yoy growth in top-line to
`186cr, on back of good performance in movie exhibition business, with many
successful releases during the quarter. The companys EBITDA margin is likely to
expand by 223bp yoy to 18.5%. Consequently, Net profit is expected to increase

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Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

by 62.7% yoy to `15cr. At the current market price, PVR is trading at 13.2x
FY2014E consolidated EPS of `19.6. We believe the stock is fairly valued and
hence, maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BV EV/EBITDA
(x)

(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

FY2013E

682 14.8

46

17.6

14.9

15.7

2.2

7.0

1.1

FY2014E

786 13.2

51

19.6

14.5

14.0

1.9

6.1

0.9

Jyoti Structures (CMP: `41/TP: `51/Upside: 24%)


For 3QFY2013, we expect Jyoti Structures to report a subdued top-line growth of
5.0% yoy to `617cr. On the EBITDA front, the company margin is likely to be flat
yoy at 10.5%. However, the company's PAT is expected to increase by a robust
29.5% yoy to `18cr aided by a lower base. We recommend Buy on the stock with
a target price of `51.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BV EV/EBITDA
(x)

(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

FY2013E

2,794 10.6

76

9.2

11.9

4.5

0.5

3.1

0.3

FY2014E

3,048 10.6

96

11.7

13.5

3.5

0.4

2.7

0.3

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate


Colgate (30/01/2013)
Particulars (` cr)

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

796

670

19

774

EBITDA

167

149

12

176

(5)

EBITDA margin (%)

21.0

22.3

Net profit

137

116

22.7
18

145

(6)

Power Finance Corporation (30/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,043

1,108

(6)

1,036

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,888

2,440

18

2,258

28

EBITDA

286

213

34

249

15

EBITDA margin (%)

9.9

8.7

Net profit

205

164

Net profit

Titan Industries (30/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

www.angelbroking.com

11.0
25

180

14

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Godrej Consumer Products Consolidated (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,703

1,344

27

1,595

EBITDA

307

272

13

249

23

EBITDA margin (%)

18.0

20.2

Net profit

204

183

Net sales

15.6
11

168

22

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Grasim Industries Consolidated (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

3QFY13E

3QFY12

Net sales

6,686

6,260

6,552

EBITDA

1,249

1,413

(12)

1,405

(11)

EBITDA margin (%)

18.7

22.6

Net profit

540

904

(40)

841

(36)

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,080

1,728

20

1,956

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,035

971

1,068

(3)

EBITDA

186

179

200

(7)

EBITDA margin (%)

18.0

18.4

Net profit

148

141

161

(8)

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,317

1,792

29

2,239

29

516

(6)

21.4

ICICI Bank (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Cummins India (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

18.7

Lupin Consolidated (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA

483

374

EBITDA margin (%)

20.8

20.8

Net profit

300

241

25

297

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,152

1,150

1,066

1QSY13E

1QSY12

y-o-y (%)

4QSY12

q-o-q (%)

23.0

Punjab National Bank (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Siemens India (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

2,433

2,361

3,269

(26)

EBITDA

161

123

31

99

63

EBITDA margin (%)

6.6

5.2

Net profit

92

71

3.0
30

(56)

(265)

Tata Global Beverage Consolidated (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

www.angelbroking.com

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,982

1,793

11

1,843

14

161

29

EBITDA

207

181

EBITDA margin (%)

10.4

10.1

Net profit

113

82

8.7
37

140

(19)

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Union Bank of India (31/01/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

581

197

195

555

Bharti Airtel Consolidated (01/02/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

20,100

18,477

20,273

(1)

6,271

5,964

6,353

(1)

EBITDA margin (%)

31.2

32.3

Net profit

844

1,022

(17)

702

20

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

10,967

10,548

10,400

1,974

2,080

(5)

1,899

18.0

19.7

1,708

1,433

19

1,274

34

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

478

382

25

478

3QFY13E

3QFY12

y-o-y (%)

2QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

521

415

26

473

10

EBITDA

196

151

30

165

19

EBITDA margin (%)

37.6

36.4

Net profit

146

123

Net sales
EBITDA

31.3

BHEL (01/02/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit

18.3

IDFC Consolidated (01/02/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Divi's Laboratories (02/02/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

34.9
19

118

Economic and Political News

RBI cuts FY13 GDP growth outlook further to 5.5%


Govt. extends deadline for PSUs to apply for coal blocks
India committed to reforms: FM tells European investors

Corporate News

NHPC proposes to exit from National Power Exchange


Tata Coffee to relaunch Eight O'Clock brand in US and Canada
HPCL plans `700cr cavern storage for LPG
RIL raises `4,300cr through perpetual bonds

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

24

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013
Result Calendar
Date

Company

January 30, 2013

Titan Inds., Power Fin.Corpn., Nalco, Colgate, Central Bank, IOB, Ipca labs, Dena Bank, Jyoti Structures, PVR
ICICI Bank, Punjab Natl.Bank, Siemens, Grasim Inds, Lupin, Union Bank, Godrej Consumer, Cummins India,
Mahindra Satyam, Allahabad Bank, Tata Global, Thermax, Jagran Prakashan
Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Adani Enterp., IDFC, Marico, Corporation Bank, TVS Motor, Hind. Const., Graphite India, TTK
Healthcare
Divi's Lab., Indian Bank

January 31, 2013


February 01, 2013
February 02, 2013
February 03, 2013
February 04, 2013

J & K Bank, Bank of Baroda, Rural Elec.Corp., United Spirits, ITNL, Taj GVK

February 05, 2013

NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank


Cipla, Tech Mahindra, IRB Infra, MOIL, Apollo Tyres, Bajaj Electrical, Automotive Axle, J K Lakshmi Cements,
Honeywell Automation
Ambuja Cements, ACC, Aurobindo Pharma, Anant Raj, JK Tyre, CEAT, MRF, Jyothy Laboratories
M&M, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Tata Chemicals, Bharat Forge, GSPL,
BGR Energy , Nagarjuna Const., Subros, Cravatex
Indraprasth Gas, Tata Comm

February 06, 2013


February 07, 2013
February 08, 2013
February 09, 2013
February 10, 2013
February 11, 2013

ONGC, Tata Power Co., Britannia, Hexaware, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma

February 12, 2013

SAIL, HPCL, CESC, HT Media

February 13, 2013

Coal India, BPCL, Madras Cements, PTC India, Finolex Cables

February 14, 2013

Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's, Monnet Ispat, Page Industries, India Cements, FAG Bearings

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data

January 30, 2013

3:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Value

Jan F

7:00PM

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

% Change

4Q A

3.10

1.10

7:00PM

US

Initial Jobless claims

Thousands

Jan 26

330.00

355.00

Thousands

Jan

3.00

8.00

Jan 30

0.25

0.25

Value

Jan F

48.80

48.80

Thousands

Jan

155.00

160.00

Jan

7.80

7.80

Jan

51.40

51.00

Last Reported Estimated

January 31, 2013

February 1, 2013

(23.90)

(23.90)

2:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

12:45AM

US

2:25PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

7:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

7:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

3:00PM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Jan

50.60

51.00

Value

Jan F

55.30

--

% Ratio

Feb 7

0.50

0.50

Feb 7

0.75

--

FOMC rate decision

6:30AM

China

February 5, 2013

2:25PM

Germany PMI Services

February 7, 2013

5:30PM

UK

6:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

3:00PM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Dec

(2.40)

--

February 8, 2013
February 11, 2013
February 12, 2013
February 14, 2013

February 15, 2013

BOE Announces rates

5:29PM

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Jan

14.10

--

11:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Jan

2.50

--

5:29PM

India

Imports YoY%

% Change

Jan

6.30

--

5:29PM

India

Exports YoY%

% Change

Jan

(1.90)

--

3:00PM

UK

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Jan

2.70

--

11:00AM

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Dec

(0.10)

--

12:00PM

India

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

% Change

Jan

7.18

--

12:30PM

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

4Q P

0.40

--

3:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

% Change

4Q A

(0.10)

--

7:45PM

US

Jan

0.26

--

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Industrial Production

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)
11.2

10.0

8.5
7.6

7.5

8.2

6.0

8.0
6.7

5.7

6.1

4.0
5.3 5.5 5.3

3.5

2.5

4.3
2.7

2.0
1.0

2.0

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

(0.7)

(0.1)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)

Mfg. PMI

60.0
8.0
7.7
7.5

7.4

(2.0) (0.1)

(2.8) (1.3)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

7.7

May-12

(4.0)

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

(2.0)

Dec-11

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

Source: CSO, Angel Research

7.6

7.6

Services PMI

8.1
58.0

7.5

56.0

7.5
7.2

54.0

6.9
52.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

48.0
Dec-11

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

50.0
Dec-11

8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2

8.3

8.0

9.2

9.0

4QFY09

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

30.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
8.00

8.00
7.00

15.0

7.00
6.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

4.25

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

4.00

Jan-12

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

5.00

Dec-11

(30.0)

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

(15.0)

Feb-12

Jan-12

0.0

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

131

2,555

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

18.8

16.2

4.0

3.4

22.6

22.5

1.8

1.6

United Phosphorus

Buy

137

170

6,053

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

9.1

8.0

1.3

1.2

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Neutral

322

5,497

2,983

3,477

16.1

16.0

18.5

21.2

17.4

15.2

5.0

3.9

32.8

28.7

1.8

1.5

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

85

96

4,284

13,713

15,341

11.2

11.2

12.5

14.8

6.8

5.7

1.3

1.1

20.2

19.9

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Accumulate

25

28

6,598

12,910

14,836

8.8

9.6

1.5

2.2

16.7

11.2

2.2

2.0

9.3

13.4

0.6

0.5

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

371

561

1,103

1,240

11.0

11.3

39.1

45.0

9.5

8.3

1.7

1.7

19.5

22.8

0.6

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

2,032

58,792

20,775

23,889

18.5

19.0

107.6

126.4

18.9

16.1

7.8

6.2

45.8

42.8

2.4

2.0

Bharat Forge

Buy

234

278

5,442

6,754

7,565

15.5

15.7

18.8

23.2

12.5

10.1

2.2

1.9

18.5

19.7

1.0

0.8

Bosch India*

Accumulate

8,886

9,570

27,901

9,973

11,320

17.8

18.0

396.2

455.7

22.4

19.5

4.2

3.6

18.8

18.2

2.4

2.1

CEAT

Buy

105

163

358

4,989

5,634

8.2

8.5

27.1

40.8

3.9

2.6

0.5

0.4

13.2

17.2

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Neutral

122

10,400

6,112

7,074

13.1

14.9

6.1

8.2

20.0

15.0

3.1

2.6

16.0

18.8

1.4

1.1

FAG Bearings*

Accumulate

1,643

1,807

2,730

1,715

1,939

17.6

18.4

127.7

150.6

12.9

10.9

2.6

2.1

21.7

21.1

1.3

1.1

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,810

1,923

36,148

23,990

27,038

13.8

14.6

105.8

120.2

17.1

15.1

6.9

5.6

44.3

41.0

1.2

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

116

165

475

7,517

8,329

6.6

6.6

37.2

41.3

3.1

2.8

0.5

0.5

18.8

17.8

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

896

998

55,037

40,035

46,272

11.5

11.6

54.4

62.1

16.5

14.4

3.7

3.1

24.2

23.2

1.2

1.0

Maruti

Neutral

1,593

46,012

42,304

51,088

7.5

8.7

64.4

92.9

24.7

17.1

2.7

2.4

11.6

14.9

0.9

0.7

Motherson Sumi

Neutral

199

11,678

24,285

27,317

6.7

7.2

8.1

10.6

24.7

18.8

5.2

4.2

22.9

24.7

0.6

0.6

Subros

Buy

28

35

166

1,286

1,479

9.4

9.7

2.6

5.1

10.7

5.5

0.6

0.5

5.6

10.3

0.4

0.4

Tata Motors

Accumulate

304

337

80,930 190,883 217,164

12.8

13.1

35.5

42.5

8.6

7.1

2.3

1.8

30.2

27.6

0.5

0.4

TVS Motor

Accumulate

44

46

2,083

7,298

8,123

6.1

6.4

4.6

5.8

9.6

7.6

1.6

1.4

17.4

19.4

0.3

0.2

Capital Goods
ABB*

Reduce

661

573

13,998

7,790

9,653

4.5

7.8

8.7

22.1

75.9

29.9

5.3

4.6

7.1

16.5

1.8

1.4

BGR Energy

Neutral

247

1,781

3,567

4,357

11.8

10.9

24.6

26.8

10.0

9.2

1.4

1.3

30.7

26.3

0.9

0.8

BHEL

Neutral

224

54,753

47,801

43,757

18.5

18.0

24.6

21.8

9.1

10.3

2.7

2.3

33.5

24.5

1.0

1.1

Blue Star

Buy

165

224

1,487

2,538

2,681

4.6

5.7

7.3

11.3

22.5

14.6

3.3

2.8

15.6

20.7

0.7

0.6

Crompton Greaves

Buy

109

135

6,967

12,320

14,390

5.5

7.2

4.3

7.8

25.3

13.9

1.8

1.7

7.4

12.6

0.6

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Buy

41

51

336

2,794

3,048

10.6

10.6

9.2

11.7

4.4

3.5

0.5

0.4

11.9

13.5

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

62

78

1,593

6,909

7,907

6.2

7.2

5.4

8.8

11.5

7.0

1.3

1.2

17.0

23.6

0.4

0.4

LMW

Reduce

2,141

1,992

2,412

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

14.9

12.9

2.5

2.3

17.4

18.4

0.6

0.4

Thermax

Neutral

578

6,890

5,552

5,767

9.3

10.2

28.3

30.9

20.4

18.7

3.7

3.2

19.3

18.4

1.1

1.0

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,306

24,514

11,012

12,333

21.1

20.9

77.0

80.3

17.0

16.3

3.2

2.9

19.5

18.7

1.9

1.6

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

197

30,342

10,210

11,811

26.0

25.7

11.2

12.6

17.6

15.6

3.8

3.4

20.3

20.7

2.6

2.1

India Cements

Neutral

87

2,657

4,293

4,666

17.7

18.1

8.6

10.8

10.1

8.1

0.7

0.7

7.5

9.0

1.0

0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements

Neutral

140

1,709

2,171

2,544

22.5

22.5

21.6

23.2

6.5

6.0

1.2

1.0

19.0

17.8

0.9

1.1

Madras Cements

Neutral

235

5,593

3,814

4,045

28.8

27.1

18.3

18.7

12.9

12.6

2.3

2.0

19.4

17.0

2.1

1.9

Shree Cements^

Neutral

4,358

15,182

5,678

6,251

29.0

28.6

288.1

334.0

15.1

13.1

4.2

3.3

31.7

28.4

2.1

1.7

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,858

50,926

20,466

23,017

23.3

24.3

100.0

117.1

18.6

15.9

3.4

2.9

19.6

19.5

2.4

2.3

204

286

1,074

2,032

2,311

22.4

22.4

27.0

31.6

7.6

6.5

0.9

0.8

13.0

13.4

1.9

2.2

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

15

283

2,262

2,522

5.9

6.3

0.9

1.6

16.7

9.8

0.5

0.4

2.7

4.6

0.4

0.4

IRB Infra

Buy

116

164

3,865

3,843

4,212

43.1

43.6

16.8

17.8

6.9

6.5

1.2

1.0

18.3

17.0

3.1

3.4

ITNL

Accumulate

200

225

3,891

6,564

7,054

27.2

27.4

26.3

29.0

7.6

6.9

1.2

1.1

17.0

16.3

2.7

2.8

IVRCL Infra

Neutral

33

1,004

4,249

6,897

7.8

8.2

0.3

3.4

106.0

9.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

4.4

0.8

0.5

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

Larsen & Toubro

Accumulate

Nagarjuna Const.

86

100

18,597

13,842

15,863

26.9

26.4

3.7

4.6

23.6

18.9

1.4

1.3

6.2

7.3

2.8

2.5

1,595

1,788

98,059

60,666

69,525

10.6

11.2

71.9

85.0

22.2

18.8

3.4

3.0

14.5

15.2

1.8

1.6

Neutral

50

1,294

5,947

6,569

8.5

8.6

3.1

4.1

16.3

12.3

0.5

0.5

3.3

4.2

0.6

0.6

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

51

1,677

11,892

13,116

9.0

9.0

1.8

3.2

27.9

15.7

0.6

0.6

2.0

3.5

0.6

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

125

168

1,880

2,344

2,804

10.6

10.7

7.2

8.7

17.3

14.3

2.1

1.8

13.0

13.5

1.2

1.0

Simplex Infra

Buy

185

251

916

6,882

8,032

9.1

9.1

23.2

31.3

8.0

5.9

0.7

0.6

9.1

11.2

0.5

0.4

Unity Infra

Buy

39

59

291

2,180

2,455

13.7

13.4

13.3

15.0

3.0

2.6

0.4

0.3

12.5

12.5

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Buy

169

199

8,465

6,403

7,186

2.7

2.8

30.5

33.6

5.5

5.0

0.8

0.7

14.9

14.6

Andhra Bank

Neutral

114

6,362

4,706

5,444

2.9

3.0

21.4

22.4

5.3

5.1

0.9

0.8

15.1

14.2

Axis Bank

Accumulate

1,476

1,641

63,044

15,959

18,660

3.2

3.2

119.2

139.0

12.4

10.6

2.3

2.0

20.3

20.1

Bank of Baroda

Neutral

847

34,828

15,284

18,032

2.5

2.6

109.6

137.7

7.7

6.2

1.1

1.0

15.5

17.1

Bank of India

Neutral

341

19,552

12,568

14,758

2.2

2.4

41.6

64.1

8.2

5.3

1.0

0.9

11.6

16.0

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

59

3,505

3,720

4,268

2.9

2.8

10.9

13.0

5.5

4.6

0.8

0.7

16.2

16.9

Canara Bank

Accumulate

475

516

21,060

10,828

12,005

2.1

2.2

64.7

80.4

7.3

5.9

1.0

0.9

13.2

14.7

Central Bank

Neutral

85

6,261

7,252

8,236

2.5

2.6

16.8

21.4

5.1

4.0

0.9

0.7

13.1

14.8

Corporation Bank

Accumulate

465

534

6,887

4,835

5,570

2.0

2.2

105.0

99.8

4.4

4.7

0.8

0.7

17.5

14.8

Dena Bank

Accumulate

112

124

3,936

3,125

3,457

2.7

2.8

26.2

24.2

4.3

4.7

0.8

0.7

19.6

15.6

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Federal Bank

Accumulate

505

557

8,634

2,667

2,920

3.2

3.2

49.1

51.4

10.3

9.8

1.4

1.2

13.9

13.1

HDFC

Neutral

803

123,812

7,446

8,923

3.5

3.5

32.2

38.5

25.0

20.8

5.1

4.5

35.4

32.6

HDFC Bank

Neutral

ICICI Bank

Buy

IDBI Bank

653

154,516

21,724

26,578

4.3

4.3

28.7

36.1

22.8

18.1

4.4

3.7

20.7

22.1

1,201

1,397

138,090

22,219

26,447

2.9

3.0

69.1

82.9

17.4

14.5

2.1

1.9

14.2

15.6

Accumulate

107

122

13,692

8,196

9,305

1.9

2.1

15.4

22.3

7.0

4.8

0.7

0.7

10.7

14.1

Indian Bank

Buy

205

252

8,800

5,902

6,563

3.2

3.2

41.3

43.2

5.0

4.8

0.8

0.7

18.4

16.8

IOB

Accumulate

J & K Bank

Neutral

LIC Housing Finance

82

90

6,559

7,063

8,308

2.3

2.5

12.6

20.4

6.5

4.0

0.6

0.6

9.0

13.3

1,310

6,350

2,830

2,910

3.6

3.6

234.8

197.4

5.6

6.6

1.3

1.1

25.1

18.0

Buy

285

328

14,393

1,799

2,255

2.3

2.4

20.3

27.3

14.0

10.5

2.2

1.9

16.9

19.7

Oriental Bank

Neutral

322

9,390

6,330

7,105

2.6

2.7

58.4

65.1

5.5

4.9

0.8

0.7

14.5

14.4

Punjab Natl.Bank

Accumulate

859

933

29,146

19,688

22,497

3.2

3.3

138.9

164.5

6.2

5.2

1.1

0.9

16.7

17.3

South Ind.Bank

Buy

27

34

3,608

1,583

1,789

3.0

2.9

3.5

4.1

7.8

6.7

1.3

1.1

19.1

17.7

St Bk of India

Neutral

2,457

164,896

60,677

69,712

3.3

3.3

224.3

257.3

11.0

9.6

1.9

1.6

17.6

17.7

Syndicate Bank

Buy

135

159

8,096

6,673

7,644

2.9

3.0

30.0

27.1

4.5

5.0

0.9

0.8

20.7

16.2

UCO Bank

Neutral

Union Bank

Accumulate

United Bank

76

5,072

5,235

6,086

2.3

2.4

12.0

14.9

6.4

5.1

1.0

0.9

12.0

13.5

249

271

13,709

9,963

11,536

2.8

2.9

40.8

46.8

6.1

5.3

1.0

0.9

16.2

16.4

Buy

76

87

2,726

3,498

3,858

2.5

2.8

15.1

21.6

5.0

3.5

0.6

0.5

12.5

16.1

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

60

2,951

2,333

2,728

2.0

2.2

7.3

10.4

8.2

5.8

0.8

0.7

9.3

12.1

Yes Bank

Accumulate

512

576

18,316

3,364

4,260

2.8

3.0

36.3

42.6

14.1

12.0

3.1

2.6

24.6

23.6

4,427

42,463

11,198

13,319

15.9

15.7

122.1

147.1

36.2

30.1

12.2

9.6

37.7

35.7

3.7

3.1

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

481

584

5,744

5,627

6,581

4.9

5.7

18.3

24.7

26.3

19.5

9.6

7.3

39.1

42.7

0.9

0.8

Colgate

Neutral

1,365

18,557

3,146

3,573

20.6

21.4

36.4

42.5

37.5

32.1

34.7

29.1

102.0

98.5

5.7

5.0

Dabur India

Neutral

130

22,606

6,124

7,101

17.0

16.8

4.7

5.4

27.9

24.0

11.8

9.2

44.5

41.5

3.7

3.1

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

3,785

15,917

3,084

3,617

15.3

15.5

101.2

118.3

37.4

32.0

11.4

9.2

33.5

31.9

4.8

4.0

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

724

24,648

6,355

7,548

16.7

17.4

20.3

25.4

35.7

28.5

7.5

6.2

23.2

25.1

4.1

3.4

HUL

Neutral

469

101,288

25,350

28,974

13.3

13.5

15.1

17.0

31.0

27.7

24.7

17.6

85.7

74.3

3.8

3.3

ITC

Neutral

306

240,876

29,148

34,191

35.7

36.1

9.4

11.1

32.6

27.5

10.9

9.0

35.9

35.7

7.9

6.7

Marico

Neutral

224

14,445

4,840

5,643

13.6

13.6

6.4

8.1

34.8

27.6

6.9

5.6

26.3

23.3

3.1

2.5

Nestle*

Neutral

4,604

44,389

8,487

10,081

21.2

22.1

113.0

142.5

40.8

32.3

24.4

16.8

70.5

61.6

5.3

4.3

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Neutral

148

9,137

7,207

7,927

9.1

9.5

6.9

8.2

21.4

18.1

2.3

2.2

8.9

9.8

1.2

1.1

HCL Tech^

Neutral

692

48,074

24,453

27,269

19.8

18.7

45.0

50.0

15.4

13.8

3.7

3.1

24.4

22.6

1.9

1.6

Hexaware*

Buy

81

118

2,389

1,941

2,118

20.8

19.0

10.7

10.7

7.5

7.5

1.9

1.6

25.3

22.0

0.9

0.8

Infosys

Neutral

2,798

160,694

40,746

44,283

28.9

28.8

162.6

172.9

17.2

16.2

4.1

3.5

23.5

21.3

3.3

2.9

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

176

191

1,963

1,900

2,064

18.2

17.8

19.1

21.2

9.2

8.3

1.4

1.2

15.2

14.6

0.7

0.6

KPIT Cummins

Accumulate

115

130

2,219

2,221

2,390

16.1

15.9

11.3

13.0

10.2

8.9

2.3

1.8

21.9

20.9

1.0

0.9

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

124

14,648

7,670

8,308

20.3

19.3

9.9

10.8

12.6

11.5

3.5

2.7

28.0

23.5

1.5

1.3

Mindtree

Neutral

797

3,297

2,339

2,502

20.9

18.4

75.4

78.1

10.6

10.2

2.6

2.1

24.6

20.3

1.2

1.0

Mphasis&

Accumulate

370

396

7,777

5,531

5,874

17.6

17.5

35.4

37.7

10.5

9.8

1.5

1.3

14.7

13.5

0.9

0.7

NIIT

Buy

27

36

447

1,048

1,161

9.1

10.9

4.1

6.2

6.6

4.4

0.7

0.6

10.3

14.1

0.3

0.2

Persistent

Neutral

539

2,157

1,277

1,398

26.8

25.2

48.0

53.9

11.2

10.0

2.1

1.8

19.0

17.9

1.4

1.2

TCS

Accumulate

1,343

1,465

262,757

62,954

70,871

29.0

28.9

71.6

79.1

18.8

17.0

6.2

5.0

33.2

29.7

4.0

3.5

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

1,001

1,087

12,798

6,671

7,290

19.8

19.0

94.1

106.4

10.6

9.4

2.5

2.0

24.0

21.6

2.0

1.7

Wipro

Neutral

408

100,390

43,231

47,241

20.0

20.0

26.2

28.1

15.6

14.5

3.0

2.6

19.3

17.9

2.0

1.7

D B Corp

Accumulate

244

264

4,474

1,581

1,784

23.3

25.0

11.6

14.4

21.1

16.9

4.1

3.5

21.0

22.3

2.7

2.4

HT Media

Buy

104

121

2,451

2,111

2,272

15.0

15.2

7.4

8.3

14.2

12.6

1.5

1.4

11.3

11.4

0.8

0.7

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

108

126

3,427

1,503

1,681

23.1

23.1

6.4

7.3

16.9

14.9

4.2

3.7

25.8

26.5

2.5

2.1

PVR

Neutral

276

799

682

786

17.3

16.9

17.6

19.7

15.7

14.0

1.9

1.6

14.9

14.5

1.5

1.3

Sun TV Network

Neutral

468

18,443

1,942

2,237

77.2

75.5

17.6

19.1

26.6

24.5

6.4

5.8

25.8

25.2

9.0

7.8

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

444

10,065

10,746

13,982

30.8

31.1

43.3

55.5

10.3

8.0

1.1

1.0

11.4

12.6

3.0

2.3

Coal India

Accumulate

348

368

219,557

66,666

70,292

25.7

27.3

24.2

26.6

14.4

13.1

4.3

3.4

33.1

29.1

2.3

2.1

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

25

34

875

1,984

2,074

10.6

11.6

1.8

2.6

14.4

9.8

0.5

0.2

3.6

5.1

0.6

0.6

Hind. Zinc

Buy

127

149

53,852

12,002

13,759

49.7

50.8

14.7

16.4

8.7

7.8

1.7

1.4

21.1

19.8

2.6

1.9

Hindalco

Neutral

115

22,056

79,148

89,258

9.4

9.0

15.0

15.6

7.7

7.4

0.7

0.6

8.8

8.4

0.7

0.6

JSW Steel

Neutral

868

19,363

39,072

40,493

16.5

18.2

82.4

90.3

10.5

9.6

1.1

1.0

10.7

10.7

0.9

0.9

MOIL

Neutral

256

4,292

941

1,019

47.3

48.3

25.8

28.1

9.9

9.1

1.6

1.4

16.7

16.2

2.2

1.8

Monnet Ispat

Buy

266

344

1,695

2,501

3,264

22.2

24.6

41.8

55.2

6.4

4.8

0.7

0.6

11.3

13.4

1.8

1.3

Nalco

Reduce

47

44

12,061

6,898

7,841

9.9

14.7

2.0

3.2

23.6

14.7

1.0

1.0

4.3

6.8

1.3

1.2

NMDC

Buy

158

198

62,821

11,209

12,525

78.4

78.3

18.5

20.6

8.6

7.7

2.1

1.7

27.0

24.6

3.7

3.1

FMCG
Tata Global
IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


SAIL

Neutral

89

36,700

47,252

60,351

14.2

14.8

9.6

11.7

9.3

7.6

0.8

0.8

9.4

10.6

1.2

1.0

Sesa Goa

Neutral

183

15,905

2,412

3,911

30.8

33.1

29.6

31.8

6.2

5.8

0.9

0.8

16.3

15.4

8.1

5.0

Sterlite Inds

Neutral

113

38,059

43,185

45,442

23.3

23.7

16.8

17.9

6.7

6.3

0.8

0.7

11.6

11.2

0.9

0.8

Tata Steel

Buy

399

463

38,747 145,725 154,108

8.3

9.5

22.0

44.5

18.1

9.0

0.9

0.8

4.9

9.3

0.6

0.5

Sarda

Buy

127

148

455

1,442

1,494

19.0

19.1

29.2

31.7

4.4

4.0

0.5

0.5

12.3

12.0

0.7

0.6

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

46

73

625

2,694

2,906

14.6

16.6

16.4

20.8

2.8

2.2

0.3

0.3

11.4

12.8

0.5

0.3

Buy

110

143

350

2,342

2,470

13.7

15.3

27.7

33.8

4.0

3.3

0.4

0.3

10.9

11.4

0.6

0.5

Cairn India

Buy

327

383

62,438

17,394

17,034

76.4

72.3

60.8

55.1

5.4

5.9

1.1

0.9

21.9

17.0

2.8

2.4

GAIL

Neutral

351

44,485

46,652

54,142

15.7

15.7

34.0

35.3

10.3

10.0

1.8

1.6

18.5

16.8

0.7

0.5

ONGC

Reduce

333

312

284,727 147,139 154,821

33.9

33.7

30.7

32.3

10.9

10.3

1.9

1.7

18.3

17.2

1.7

1.5

Reliance Industries

Neutral

883

288,996 362,700 380,031

8.9

8.9

68.1

71.5

13.0

12.4

1.4

1.3

12.4

11.8

0.8

0.7

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

311

3,993

3,128

3,707

13.2

11.7

22.8

23.5

13.7

13.2

4.1

3.7

33.2

29.2

1.2

1.0

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

261

3,648

3,213

3,643

23.3

23.5

24.3

25.7

10.7

10.1

2.5

2.1

25.0

22.1

1.2

1.1

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

153

179

11,494

32,210

41,362

6.1

5.8

15.4

15.6

10.0

9.8

2.6

2.2

29.1

24.1

0.4

0.3

73

4,127

1,079

1,034

91.8

91.9

8.8

8.4

8.4

8.7

1.4

1.2

17.9

15.0

3.5

3.6

Alembic Pharma

Buy

76

95

1,441

1,490

1,714

16.2

17.1

7.4

9.5

10.3

8.1

2.8

2.2

30.7

30.2

1.1

0.9

Aurobindo Pharma

Accumulate

183

208

5,335

5,463

6,279

15.0

15.0

12.4

14.0

14.8

13.1

1.9

1.6

18.8

17.8

1.6

1.3

Aventis*

Neutral

2,238

5,154

1,482

1,682

17.5

16.6

82.9

87.8

27.0

25.5

4.2

3.4

16.3

14.8

3.3

2.8

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

851

926

17,424

6,148

7,386

18.6

19.6

32.7

44.8

26.0

19.0

5.7

4.6

23.7

26.6

3.2

2.6

Cipla

Accumulate

397

419

31,880

8,151

9,130

25.8

24.8

20.2

21.6

19.7

18.4

3.5

3.0

19.4

17.6

3.7

3.2

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

1,940

32,933

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

23.2

20.9

4.8

4.0

22.4

20.8

3.4

3.0

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Buy

Ipca labs

Neutral

105

145

848

1,280

1,536

20.2

20.2

10.4

14.5

10.1

7.3

0.8

0.8

8.7

11.0

1.3

1.1

2,055

17,406

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

27.0

24.9

7.8

7.0

20.1

26.3

5.8

5.0

62

89

568

685

837

15.2

15.2

7.4

8.9

8.3

6.9

1.3

1.1

16.4

17.0

1.0

0.8

Neutral

488

6,153

2,850

3,474

21.0

21.0

29.9

37.3

16.3

13.1

3.9

3.1

26.7

26.4

2.4

1.9

Lupin

Accumulate

597

655

26,705

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

26.1

31.1

22.9

19.2

5.3

4.3

25.8

24.7

3.3

2.7

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

455

19,266

12,046

11,980

16.0

15.8

37.3

32.1

12.2

14.2

4.7

3.8

45.3

29.7

1.6

1.6

Sun Pharma

Neutral

712

73,589

9,902

12,313

42.6

42.6

26.7

29.1

26.7

24.5

5.1

4.3

20.7

19.1

6.8

5.3

70

78

1,060

1,523

1,568

30.3

30.3

5.4

11.5

13.0

6.1

0.7

0.7

5.6

11.3

1.2

1.0

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

157

129,619

72,809

81,951

23.0

23.7

12.0

13.4

13.1

11.7

1.6

1.5

12.5

12.9

2.4

2.3

Power
NTPC

Neutral

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Neutral

84

2,482

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

10.0

6.6

0.6

0.6

6.3

8.9

5.0

3.8

DLF

Neutral

264

44,760

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

27.5

19.7

1.7

1.7

6.4

8.7

7.0

5.8

HDIL

Buy

80

115

3,369

2,441

3,344

55.1

48.2

22.7

26.6

3.5

3.0

0.3

0.3

8.8

9.4

3.2

2.4

MLIFE

Accumulate

404

446

1,651

786

888

26.3

26.7

31.0

36.3

13.0

11.2

1.3

1.2

10.1

10.8

2.4

2.1

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

349

132,496

80,353

86,654

30.9

31.3

8.6

11.8

40.8

29.6

2.5

2.3

6.1

7.8

2.4

2.2

Idea Cellular

Neutral

114

37,590

21,797

23,142

26.9

27.7

3.1

4.7

36.2

24.4

2.7

2.4

7.4

9.8

2.2

2.0

Rcom

Neutral

81

16,729

21,032

22,084

31.8

30.2

2.9

4.0

27.7

20.3

0.5

0.4

1.6

2.2

2.5

2.2

Telecom

zOthers
Abbott India

Accumulate

1,455

1,590

3,092

1,629

1,886

11.8

13.3

60.8

79.5

24.0

18.3

4.9

4.1

22.0

24.4

1.7

1.4

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

185

217

1,847

3,497

3,968

6.6

7.6

9.8

15.5

18.9

12.0

2.4

2.1

12.7

17.4

0.5

0.5

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

409

495

518

460

596

16.4

16.2

34.7

45.0

11.8

9.1

2.9

2.2

27.7

27.8

1.2

1.0

Cravatex

Buy

430

545

111

272

308

7.2

7.3

37.5

45.4

11.5

9.5

2.7

2.2

23.7

22.7

0.5

0.5

CRISIL

Neutral

999

7,020

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

29.1

25.0

13.2

10.5

50.9

46.9

6.7

5.7

Finolex Cables

Accumulate

57

61

870

2,304

2,552

9.9

9.1

8.2

10.1

7.0

5.7

1.0

0.8

13.7

14.7

0.3

0.3

Force Motors

Buy

437

550

569

2,027

2,299

4.6

5.1

35.3

50.0

12.4

8.7

0.5

0.5

3.9

5.3

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India

Accumulate

316

360

729

1,494

1,607

6.4

7.8

23.9

33.0

13.2

9.6

2.1

1.8

16.5

20.1

0.3

0.2

Greenply Industries

Sell

419

309

1,012

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

14.2

9.5

2.3

1.9

16.8

21.0

0.8

0.7

Hitachi

Neutral

145

334

873

989

4.4

6.5

6.4

12.2

22.9

12.0

1.8

1.6

8.3

14.4

0.4

0.4

2,588

2,842

2,288

1,809

2,117

5.5

7.5

84.9

135.3

30.5

19.1

3.3

2.8

11.3

16.0

1.2

1.0

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate


Styrolution ABS India*

Accumulate

667

744

1,173

1,059

1,116

8.5

9.5

36.0

42.0

18.5

15.9

2.7

2.3

15.4

16.0

1.1

1.1

ITD Cementation

Buy

236

334

272

1,455

1,630

12.4

12.6

29.8

40.5

7.9

5.8

0.6

0.6

8.2

9.8

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

151

2,439

1,228

1,443

9.0

10.9

3.9

6.4

38.9

23.7

3.9

3.6

10.1

15.6

2.5

2.1

MCX

Neutral

1,407

7,176

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

22.5

19.5

6.2

5.4

27.5

27.4

10.0

8.4

MRF

Neutral

13,061

5,539

13,030

14,405

10.3

10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1

9.2

7.8

1.6

1.3

19.1

18.7

0.5

0.5

Page Industries

Accumulate

3,391

3,602

3,782

836

1,023

20.2

20.6

105.6

133.4

32.1

25.4

16.3

11.5

59.3

53.2

4.6

3.7

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

795

933

954

1,019

1,208

11.0

12.5

47.0

66.7

16.9

11.9

4.2

3.1

28.2

30.1

1.1

0.9

Sintex Industries

Buy

63

79

1,965

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

4.6

4.0

0.6

0.5

12.9

13.2

0.8

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

286

366

268

1,043

1,149

12.3

12.9

65.7

73.3

4.4

3.9

0.8

0.7

21.0

19.6

0.5

0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

12

358

6,765

7,393

18.1

18.0

6.4

7.5

1.9

1.6

0.1

0.1

6.1

6.7

0.6

0.6

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

OPM(%)
FY13E

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

zOthers
SpiceJet

Reduce

47

43

2,276

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

13.0

8.8

18.9

6.0

0.5

0.4

TAJ GVK

Buy

68

108

426

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.6

7.5

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.7

1.5

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

307

384

473

750

803

18.6

18.4

65.4

69.1

4.7

4.4

0.7

0.6

16.5

15.3

0.2

0.1

TTK Healthcare

Buy

519

643

403

374

425

7.9

9.5

24.1

32.7

21.6

15.9

19.7

22.5

0.9

0.8

TVS Srichakra

Buy

253

322

194

1,461

1,625

6.9

8.2

24.6

53.7

10.3

4.7

1.3

1.1

12.9

24.9

0.4

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

1,809

23,666

10,289

11,421

12.8

12.8

26.0

45.3

69.6

39.9

3.2

2.9

5.8

7.6

2.7

2.4

Vesuvius India

Neutral

337

684

560

611

16.1

17.0

24.7

28.8

13.7

11.7

2.0

1.8

15.8

16.2

1.1

1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 29, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
January 30, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

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