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Singapore Property Weekly Issue 89
Singapore Property Weekly Issue 89
Singapore Property Weekly Issue 89
CONTENTS
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6.9m Population by 2030 - Good or Bad for Property?
FROM THE
EDITOR
Welcome to the 89th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Im glad to announce that the 2012Q4 URA data has been updated for PropertyMarketInsights.com members. >> Click here to find out more << Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 which together make up the resident population. We also had a non-resident population (including domestic workers, foreign talent, students etc) of 1.49 million, giving a total population of 5.31 million. Singapores total population in 2020 is projected to be between 5.8 and 6 million, while by 2030, the total population could range between 6.5 and 6.9 million. Singapore needs immigrants to grow, but... Government will have to grant around 30,000 PRs each year, maintaining the PR population to between 0.5 and 0.6 million as a potential pool that will to convert to new citizens. But due mainly to political pressures, the Government has reduced the number of PRs granted, from a high of 79,000 new PRs in 2008 to about 30,000 each year currently. Going forward, this pace will be maintained to keep the total PR population stable. In other words, immigration will not be a big driver of the property market anymore. Population growth to slow over the next two decades
Due to our extremely low birth rates (as measured by the Total Fertility Rate), Singaporeans will age rapidly and the number of citizens will decline from 2025 if there is no immigration.
To prevent this from happening, Singapore needs to bring in 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens each year. And in order to do that, the
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The bottomline is that total population growth will slow from the annualized rate of 2.5% from 2000 to 2010, to 1.3% to 1.6% from 2010 to 2020,
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 and further slow to 1.1% to 1.4% from 2020 to 2030. This deceleration of the growth rate is clearly not supportive of the future demand growth for residential property. But to figure out the impact on prices, we'll have to take a look at the other side of the equation - the supply of property. Housing supply to be ramped up The huge number of 700,000 new homes that could be built by 2030 has been thrown around a lot - what does it actually mean? If we look at the current total stock of housing in Singapore, this comprises around 1.2 million units, of which 0.9 million are HDB flats. An additional 700,000 units is a 58% increase in the total stock, whereas the population increase from 5.31 million to 6.9 million (the upper end of the 2030 range) is a
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30% increase. In other words, additional new supply is potentially going to be growing twice as fast as population growth - not a good sign for the market. Of these 700,000 new homes, 90,000 private units (including Executive Condominiums) and 110,000 public units will be completed by 2016. This means that in the next three years, the total stock of housing will increase by 17%, while the population will likely grow by 5% or less over the same time period. Suffice to say, this "flood" of new supply will pose a threat to property prices. Also due to political pressure, the Government will ramp up the Build-to-Order (BTO) supply of public housing from 8,800 units in 2009 to 16,000 units in 2010, 25,000 units in 2011 and 27,000 units in 2012. These are not small numbers - the total number of units launched in 2011 and 2012 is larger
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 than the number of existing units in the whole of Ang Mo Kio. On top of this, HDB will launch at least 20,000 BTO units in 2013. could be some area-specific opportunities from the expansion of the rail network, opening up of new growth corridors, and decentralization of the business and commercial districts. The Golden Years are over I'll put it bluntly - the record home sales we've seen in recent years are clearly not sustainable. They are the result of a confluence of rapid non-citizen population growth and sustained low interest rates post the Global Financial Crisis. Going forward, immigration will be controlled and will not be a driver of home sales. Total population growth will slow and will grow at much slower rate than housing supply. There is a large amount of housing supply coming up in the next three years. Interest rates will not stay low forever. Do you really need me to join the dots?
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 700,000 more homes needed by 2030 for growing population To support the population of 6.9 million expected by 2030, 700,000 more homes are needed by then as a buffer. Of these 700,000, about 200,000 are already under construction. The rest will mostly be in new towns such as Tengah, Tampines North and Bidadari. The figure translates into about 39,000 units a year, which is similar to the current rate. Building a buffer stock also helps to control prices. However, there is risk of under-building or over-building. Overbuilding can lead to extra costs to taxpayers as the homes are left unoccupied when the building value depreciates with the age of the building and the shorter lease. Another concern would be having smaller home sizes and lower quality of life. (Source: Business Times)
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99-year Lakeside condo site draws 12 bids The site located 450 m away from the Lakeside MRT station drew a total of 12 bids, with the top bid of $651.33 psf ppr from MCL Land. It is bounded by Jurong West Street 41 and Boon Lay Way and offers unobstructed views of Jurong Lake. The expected breakeven price and average selling price are $1,050 psf and $1,300 psf respectively. The high bids and the high number of bids reflect an optimism in the residential market despite the latest cooling measures. (Source: Business Times) 3,346 BTO flats launched in both mature and non-mature estates
HDB has launched 3,346 BTO flats for balloting. In the non-mature estates, there will be Keat Hong Colours at Choa Chu Kang Avenue 7 with 968 three to five-room flats
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 ($170,000 - $388,000). In the mature estates, there will be Kebun Baru Court at Ang Mo Kio Street 21 with 283 four- and five-room flats ($380,000 - $575,000), Whampoa Dew at Lorong Limau with 156 studio apartments ($105,000 0 $154,000) and 249 four-room flats ($385,000 - $483,000) and Tampines GreenForest at Tampines Avenue 8 with 424 three-room and four-room flats ($191,000 $356,000). All three projects in the mature estates and the Yishun project which offers a view of the Singapore Orchid Country Club golf course and Seletar Reservoir are expected to be oversubscribed given their locations. The Parenthood Priority Scheme which gives priority (30% of the flats to be allocated) to first-time applicants who are married with children is applicable for this launch. The Multi-Generational Priority Scheme will also apply for the Whampoa Dew project. In addition, elderly flat owners living
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in the area will have doubled balloting chances for studio apartments at Whampoa Dew. Applications will close on Feb 4. (Source: Business Times) Questioning the plan for 700,000 new homes by 2030
As part of the plan to build 700,000 new housing units by 2030, more homes will be built in the central region, such as in the former Bukit Turf Club, Kallang Riverside, Bukit Brown, and the waterfront area around Keppel, in addition to three new towns, Bidadari (11,000 public and private homes), Tampines North (21,000 homes), and Tengah (55,000 homes). While some felt that the figure may not be sufficient, citing the need to tear down old flats and rebuilt leading to a need for one million new homes, others felt that it was too large since it would mean a
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 compounded average 2.7% growth rate in housing stock compared to a 1.7% per annum population growth (based on the targeted 6.9 million). The ratio of private to total housing stock is also expected to increase from 23% to about 28.5% by 2030 though it may not result in lower prices. $850,000 and $833,000 respectively. The remaining two units left unsold are a 102 sq m (1,097 sq ft) F&B unit on the second floor and a 667 sq m unit on the third floor. (Source: Business Times) Freehold commercial property No 160 Changi up for sale The four-storey building sitting on 18,000 sq ft plot at the corner of Changi Road and Lorong 105 Changi has been put up for sale with vacant possession. The building also consists of 33 carpark lots on two basement levels. The site with a 3.0 permissible GPR is expected to fetch around $62 million and is located about 300 metres away from Eunos MRT station. It can potentially be redeveloped for strata sales for retail or office use or into a hotel subject to approval from the authorities.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 No development charge, ABSD or SSD is applicable for the site, which tender closes on March 8 at 4pm. (Source: Business Times) Units at the Mediplex@SBFCenter to be launched in February in the CBD area. (Source: Business Times)
The 48 units in Mediplex@SBFCenter on Robinson Road near Tanjong Pagar MRT station will occupy the third to fifth levels of the SBF Center and range from 667 sq ft to 1,292 sq ft in size. They are said to be marketed at $3,800-4,000 psf under a 99year lease to specialties such as dentistry, diet & nutrition, licensed traditional Chinese medicine, physiotherapy and others. These units are expected to be popular given the limited supply of such strata-titled units available for sale as well as the expected demand for medical and healthcare services
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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Jan 16 Jan 22
Postal District 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Project Name THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY ICON TWIN REGENCY RIVER PLACE TANGLIN VIEW QUEENS THE ANCHORAGE QUEENS MARINA COLLECTION REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY HARBOURLIGHTS THE PEAK@BALMEG ONE-NORTH RESIDENCES THE PARC CONDOMINIUM CARABELLE PARK WEST PARK WEST KERRISDALE HELIOS RESIDENCES THE METZ THE COSMOPOLITAN RIVERGATE THE TRILLIUM RIVERGATE PARC SOPHIA Area (sqft) 6,297 904 980 1,044 1,152 1,184 1,195 2,282 2,390 2,648 893 990 1,432 1,292 883 1,249 872 1,259 1,668 581 1,324 1,776 1,798 2,077 506 Transacted Price ($) 12,680,000 1,623,000 1,700,000 1,570,000 1,600,000 1,620,000 1,430,000 2,258,000 7,050,500 4,413,277 1,380,000 1,500,000 2,125,000 1,725,000 1,170,000 1,230,000 810,000 1,500,000 6,316,500 1,540,000 2,900,000 3,850,000 3,708,000 4,100,000 970,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 2,014 99 1,795 99 1,736 FH 1,504 99 1,389 99 1,368 99 1,197 FH 989 99 2,950 99 1,667 99 1,545 FH 1,515 FH 1,484 99 1,335 FH 1,326 956 985 99 929 99 1,191 99 3,786 FH 2,649 FH 2,190 FH 2,168 FH 2,063 FH 1,974 FH 1,917 FH Postal District 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Project Name PARC EMILY ESTILO ASPEN HEIGHTS WATERFORD RESIDENCE UE SQUARE OLEANAS RESIDENCE ARDMORE PARK LATITUDE THE LOFT MILL POINT GALLOP GREEN GALLOP GREEN BOTANIC GARDENS VIEW BELMOND GREEN WATERFALL GARDENS ASTRID MEADOWS LEEDON 2 THE LEGACY WING ON LIFE GARDEN VIZ AT HOLLAND CHATEAU LE FAME JERVOIS LODGE SPANISH VILLAGE MARTINA MANSIONS MUTIARA VIEW Area (sqft) 980 614 1,324 1,044 1,292 1,281 2,885 1,927 710 538 5,102 4,338 1,410 1,302 1,830 2,045 764 764 3,305 861 840 1,238 2,045 1,259 1,216 Transacted Price ($) 1,788,888 1,080,000 2,094,000 1,630,000 1,988,888 1,860,000 8,800,000 4,275,720 1,420,000 1,035,000 9,744,820 8,285,580 2,550,000 2,282,000 3,080,000 3,408,000 1,260,000 1,250,000 5,350,000 1,350,000 1,288,000 1,780,000 2,925,000 1,800,000 1,650,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,826 FH 1,760 FH 1,582 999 1,561 999 1,540 929 1,452 FH 3,051 FH 2,219 FH 1,999 99 1,923 999 1,910 FH 1,910 FH 1,808 FH 1,752 FH 1,683 FH 1,666 FH 1,649 FH 1,636 FH 1,619 FH 1,568 FH 1,534 FH 1,438 FH 1,430 FH 1,429 FH 1,357 FH
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NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
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