Lecture 9: Some applications

Fluoridation. The local reservoir currently holds 200 million gallons of uoridated water that contains 1600 pounds of uoride. The uoridated water is owing out of the reservoir at the rate of 4 million gallons per day and is being replaced at the same rate by unuoridated water Let Q(t) be the amount of uoride (in pounds) in the reservoir after t days, then dQ 4Q Q =0 = dt 200 50 Hence Q(t) = Q0 e0.02t where Q0 = Q(0) = 1600 The amount of ouride in the reservoir after 10days is 1600e0.2 = 1310 lbs

Lecture 9: Some applications

Brine y(t) = amount of salt in the tank at time t V (t) = volume of brine in the tank at time t The mixture ows out at 3 gal/min dy 3y = dt V Pure water ows in 4 gal/min dV =43=1 dt Assume V (0) = 100 then V (t) = t + 100 and dy 3y = dt t + 100 The general solution is ln y = 3 ln(t + 100) + C or y= C (t + 100)3

Lecture 9: Some applications

Air Purication. A 2400-cubic-foot room contains an activated charcoal air lter through which air passes at the rate of 400 cubic feet per minute. The ozone in the air is absorbed by the charcoal as the air ows through the lter, and the puried air is recirculated in the room Let z(t) be the remaining amount of ozone in the room at the time t, then dz z = dt 6 Therefore t z(t) = z0 e 6

Lecture 9: Some applications

Exercise
A tank holds 100 gallons of water that contains 20 lbs of dissolved salt. A brine solution is owing into the tank at the rate 2 gallons per minute while the solution ows out of the tank at the same rate. The brine solution entering the tank has a salt concentration of 2 lbs per gallon a) Write and solve the dierential equation to nd the expression for the amount of salt in the tank at any time t b) How much salt is in the tank after 1 hour?

Lecture 9: Some applications

Fruit ies growth, Raymond Pearl, 1920

y = 0.2y 2 2 y y = 0.2y 1 1035 103.5

Read on Google City population predicted from

study of ies by Myron M Stearns, Popular Science June 1927, page 24

Lecture 9: Some applications

Pierre Franois Verhulst (1804-1849, Belgium) published in 1838 the equation: dN = rN dt 1 N K

where N(t) represents number of individuals at time t, r is the intrinsic growth rate and K is the carrying capacity, or the maximum number of individuals that the environment can support In a paper published in 1845 he called the solution to this the logistic function, and the equation is now called the logistic equation This model was rediscovered in 1920 by Raymond Pearl and Lowell Reed, who promoted its wide and indiscriminate use for fruit ies and human population 1 N 1 dN = dt 1 1 + N K N dN dt

r=

N K

N K N K K N Aert = = 1 N N K N= 1 + Aert rt + C = ln

Lecture 9: Logistic models

Logistic model Let B be the largest population

supportable by the environment (called the carrying capacity) and that at any time t, the relative rate of population growth is proportional to the potential population B Q; that is, dQ = kQ(B Q), k > 0 dt Hence dQ attains its maximum value k B when Q = dt 2 Two equilibrium solutions are Q(t) = 0, Q(t) = B If 0 < Q(0) < B, the solution is Q(t) = B 1 + AeBkt B 2
2

B 2.

which is increasing strictly and N as t . Q(0) = B B Q(0) ln A ,A = ,Q 1+A Q(0) Bk =

Lecture 9: Logistic models

Example. Fisher and Pry successfully described the phenomenon of a technically superior new product replacing another product by the equation dz = k(1 z)z dx where z is the market share of the new product (1 z) is the market share of the other product The new product initially has little or no market value (z0 0). The market share of the new product is growing most rapidly when it has captured half the market z(t) = 1 1 + Aekt
ln A t

where A = 1z0 is big, and t = z0 creasing fastest

is when z(t) is in-

Lecture 9: Logistic models

Epidemics. The rate at which an epidemic spreads through a community is jointly proportional to the number of residents who have been infected and the number of susceptible residents who have not. It is reasonable to apply logistic model Suppose the community has 2000 residents. P (t) = 2000 1 + Aert

If Q(0) = 500 residents had the disease initially and Q(7) = 855 residents had been infected in 7 days, then A= and similarly, r(7) = ln Therefore P (t) = B Q(7) 2000 855 = ln = 0.8066 AQ(7) 3(855) 2000 1 + 3e0.1152t B Q(0) 2000 500 = =3 Q(0) 500

Lecture 9: Logistic models

10

A rumor spreads at a rate proportional to the product of the number of the people who have heard it and the number who have not heard it Assume that 5 people in an oce with 50 employees heard the rumor initially, and 15 people have heard it 3 days later. When will 30 employees have heard the rumor? Q(t) = 50 1 + Aert

with the initial conditions Q(0) = 5, Q(3) = 15 Then A= and r(3) = ln B Q(3) 50 15 = ln = 1.35 AQ(3) 9(15) B Q(0) 50 5 = =9 Q(0) 5

Thus r = 0.45 and Q(t) = 30 implies r(t) = 0.45t = ln and t 5.78 days B Q(t) 50 30 = ln = 2.6027 AQ(t) 9(30)

Lecture 9: Logistic models

11

Corruption The number of people implicated in a government scandal increases at a rate jointly proportional to the number of people already implicated and the number involved who have not yet been implicated Suppose that 7 people were implicated when a Washington newspaper rst made the scandal public, that 9 more were implicated over the next 3 months, and that another 12 were implicated during the following 3 months. How many people are involved in the scandal? The equation is dQ = kQ(B Q) dt where k > 0 and the initial conditions are Q(0) = 7, Q(3) = 16, Q(6) = 28 B is the number of people involved in the scandal

Lecture 9: Logistic models

12

Allometry. Suppose x(t) is the size at time t of one organ and y(t) is the size of another organ of the same individual. Then the law of allometry states that the relative growth rates of x and y are proportional; that is, for some constant k > 0 y (t) x (t) =k y(t) x(t) The general solution is ln y(t) = k ln x(t) + C or equivalently, y(t) = Axk (t)

Lecture 9: Logistic models

13

Exercises 1. A rumor starts with 3 people in an oce building

where 500 people work. After 2 days, 50 people have heard the rumor. How many people will have heard the rumor in 5 days?

2. An inuenza epidemic spreads at a rate proportional

to the product of the number of infected people and the number not yet infected. Assume that 50 people are infected at the beginning in a community of 10000 people and 300 are infected 10 days later. When will half the community be infected?

3. Solve the equation in the corruption example and

nd B, the number of people involved in the scandal