Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | February 7, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | February 7, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis UKs Manufacturing Production increased 1.6 percent in December. Indian government has lowered forecast to 5 percent for FY 12-13. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 5.3 bn Euros in December. Indian government has lowered the forecast to 5 percent for Fiscal Year 2012-2013 from previous estimates of 6.2 percent. Farm growth in the country is expected to grow by 1.8 percent and manufacturing growth forecasted at 1.9 percent in the Financial Year 2012-13. Also, International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday has lowered Indias growth forecast to 5.4 percent for the current fiscal year from earlier estimates of 6.2 percent. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 5.3 billion Euros in December as against a previous deficit of 4.3 billion Euros in November. UKs Manufacturing Production increased by 1.6 percent in December as against a decline of 0.3 percent a month ago. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 8.9 billion Pounds in December from earlier deficit of 9.2 billion Pounds in November. Industrial Production grew by 1.1 percent in December as compared to rise of 0.3 percent in prior month. Spot gold prices are trading on a flat note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets sentiments. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the gold prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1680.95/oz and hovered around $1677.10/tonne in todays trade. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in the prices. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in base metals prices, Spot silver prices gained marginally and traded on a flat note. Additionally, weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the white metal prices. On the domestic front, prices gained on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. The base metals complex traded on a mixed note today ahead of the European zone policymakers meeting. Further mixed LME inventories along with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor for the prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.35 percent taking cues from decline in supplies at the Cushing, Okhlama biggest delivery point for crude in US. Weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the crude prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $96.99/bbl and was trading at $96.96/bbl today till 4:30pm IST. On the domestic bourses, prices rose marginally and traded on flat note on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5936.45 19589.44 11406.32 1939.42 16635.69 High 5978.50 19702.56 11446.81 1946.67 16796.97

as at 4.30 pm 07 February 13
Low 5927.60 19540.08 11295.62 1931.10 16565.48 Last 5938.80 19580.32 11357.07 1931.77 16565.48 % Chg from Prev day -0.34 -0.30 -0.93 -0.23 0.78
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 07 February 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 79.81 1.352 53.06 High 79.86 1.3577 53.325 Low 79.58 1.3502 53.04 Current 79.595 1.3571 53.26 % Chg from Prev day -0.22 0.38 0.20
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 07 February 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Feb 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Feb 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Feb13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Feb13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Feb13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Feb13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1677.10 1677.00 30721.00 31.80 28.23 58369 96.86 116.90 5144 8245.25 440.15 2167.25 114.10 2425.25 128.40 18353 982.80 2101.0 110.45

1680.95 1680.60 30775.0 31.88 31.92 58480 96.99 117.72 5172 8264.25 442.60 2167.50 114.70 2425.25 128.80 18360 987.40 2106.75 111.15

1674.74 1674.80 30692.0 31.70 31.84 58292 96.44 116.75 5142 8211.0 439.70 2144.0 113.75 2395.25 127.70 18220 982.30 2082.0 110.0

1677.10 1674.80 30711.00 31.81 31.861 58376 96.96 117.64 5139 8263.0 442.60 2160.0 114.45 2420.0 128.80 18320 985.70 2106.75 111.10

0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.35 0.78 0.00 0.34 0.66 -0.22 0.04 0.00 0.19 -0.16 0.12 0.24 0.45

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | February 7, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a positive note on the back of expectations of favorable unemployment claims data from US coupled with weakness in the DX. Addiitionally, rise in the German Industrial Production and increase in UKs manufacturing and industrial production will also support an upside in the prices. Further, any optimistic statement from Euro Zone policymakers meeting will also act as a positive factor for the prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 7 February 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Feb'13 Nymex Crude Oil Feb13 Natural Gas Feb13 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Feb13 Lead Feb13 Aluminum Feb13 Nickel Feb13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30611 1670 58140 31.58 5094 95.55 180.7 438.2 113.35 127 109.7 959 Support 1 30692 1675 58317 31.7 5132 96.3 182.4 439.65 113.65 127.6 110 967 CMP 30746 1676.8 58450 31.81 5170 96.95 184 442.45 114.5 128.7 111.1 976 Resistance1 30805 1682 58577 31.94 5198 97.5 185.7 442.8 114.95 129.4 111.45 980.5 Resistance 2 30870 1687 58746 32.07 5236 98.2 187.6 444.8 115.45 130.15 111.9 987.6

Important Events for Today

Indicator Core Machinery Orders m/m EU Economic Summit Manufacturing Production m/m Trade Balance BOE Gov-Designate Carney Speaks French 10-y Bond Auction German Industrial Production m/m Asset Purchase Facility Official Bank Rate MPC Rate Statement Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Unemployment Claims Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q FOMC Member Stein Speaks NIESR GDP Estimate Country Japan Euro UK UK UK Euro Euro UK UK UK Euro Euro US US US US UK Time (IST) 5:20am Day 1 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:15pm Tentative 4:30pm 5:30pm 5:30pm Tentative 6:15pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:00pm 8:30pm Actual 2.8% 1.6% -8.9B 1.1% 0.3% Forecast -0.7% 0.7% -8.9B 0.2% 375B 0.50% 0.75% 361K -0.8% 2.8% Previous 3.9% -0.3% -9.2B 2.07/1.7 -0.2% 375B 0.50% 0.75% 368K 2.9% -1.9% -0.3% Impact Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium High High High High High High Medium Medium Medium Medium