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Kim Lowell - Using Digital Orthophotographs To Estimate Changes in Bushfire Threat To Built Structures For 1983 Ash Wednesday Fire Scars
Kim Lowell - Using Digital Orthophotographs To Estimate Changes in Bushfire Threat To Built Structures For 1983 Ash Wednesday Fire Scars
1
Project Drivers
Has the bushfire threat to structures
changed since Ash Wednesday 1983?
– Can all structures be located economically?
(Cadastral records? Property sales?)
– Can bushfire threat for each be determined?
(Structure characteristics vs. micro-
surroundings vs. macro surroundings)
2
Approach
Structure mapping:
– Human interpretation of 1982,
1983, 2006 digital ortho-
photographs
Bushfire threat:
– Landscape level weather,
topography, and vegetation
3
Study Area
Three Ash Wednesday (1983) Fire
Scars + 500 m buffer
Macedon
Ranges
Dandenongs
Otways
4
Structure Data
Orthophotographs (0.35 m resolution)
– Houses, Sheds, Commercial, Other
– Type Confidence
– Presence Conf.
5
Validation
1 km2 samples
– 1. Independent visual re-checking for 2006
– 2. Ground-based verification if necessary
6
Weather Bushfire Threat Model(1)
– Bureau of Meteorology Data
– Prevailing wind direction on high fire danger days
– Plus perceived shift in wind on days of high FD
7
Bushfire Threat Model (2)
Topography
– Slope
– Aspect
Vegetation
– Digital Orthophotographs
– Classified Forest/Non-forest
– Processed with “TreeDen” algorithm
8
TreeDen algorithm
Identifies density of Forest pixels
– Does not identify forest canopy density
1982 2006
Non--forest
Non
Dense “Real”
Medium TreeDen
Sparse
9
Bushfire Threat Model (4)
Combine wind,
topography, 1982
TreeDen layer for
1982 or 2006
Classify into Low-
High, Very High, 2006
Extreme
Decreased Risk
No Change
Change
Increased Risk
10
Results
Validation
– Errors of Omission/Commission: 12%/0.5%
– +10% “not seen” (22% Total EoO)
– Type agreement for Houses/Sheds: 91%/78%
Not seen
Commission True Error
11
Bushfire Structure Threat
Dandenongs Dandenong
Number of Houses and Sheds
4000 80
3500 70
Percentage of Structures
3000 60
2500 50
1982 1982
2000 40
2006 2006
1500 30
1000 20
500 10
0 0
Low-High Very High Extreme Low-High Very High Extreme
Net Increase
Decrease No Change Increase
(Decrease)
Otways 8 82 10 2
Macedon
Ranges
6 91 3 (3)
Dandenongs 13 79 8 (5)
13
Costs
$6.00/structure or $4.60/property
– Data acquisition: 32% ($1.90/structure)
– Structure mapping: 39% ($2.30/structure)
– Threat modelling: 20% ($1.20/structure)
– Contingency: 10% ($0.60/structure)
Projected: $11.4 million for Victoria
14
Conclusions
22% of structures will not be mapped –
mainly small sheds
Improvement of the bushfire threat
model requires ground-based data
Since 1983…
– Large increase in structures having Low-
High and Very High threats
– No substantial change in percentage of
structures in each threat class
15