KRmagazine

2013 FORECAST
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INTRODUCTION
Mark Lowe
Editor

rying to guess the course of the future is never an easy task, indeed it could be argued that it is not a sensible one at all.

As can be seen over the following pages, this is exactly what theyve done. No brief was given, no parameters set or suggested. Each contributor has simply laid out in a clear and unambiguous fashion their concerns and the areas and scenarios that they will be monitoring. I thank them all for their time and their courage in making difficult predictions. We can all learn from their forecsts and, most importantly, factor their valuable knowledge and experience into our organisations plans and procedures.

Conclusions reached only days before can fall prey to change and, in the dynamic, interlocked reality of todays world, perfectly valid theories and forecasts can fall by the way. However, forecasting as a means of mitigating potential future risks is a requirement common to many organisations from the corporate, state and non governmental sectors. The idea behind the 2013 Forecast was quite simple; allow a select group of colleagues and subject experts to write a few paragraphs describing whats on their radar screens for the coming year.

Mark Lowe

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Embracing a no negotiation policy may be politically correct, but if your family member or employees life is on the line, its not so simple. In my judgment, governments should not attempt to thwart ransom payment undertaken by professionals; rather they should support the safe release of the victim first, and then follow up with a robust and relentless effort to identify, locate, apprehend, and prosecute the kidnappers. This follow up is absent in most countries where kidnappings abound. Only when faced with a higher prospect of punishment will the scourge of kidnapping be reduced or eliminated.

Gary Noesner Chief, FBI Crisis Negotiation Unit (retired) As we examine the growing kidnap problem around the world one of the factors we must consider is the role and attitude of governments. Typically, wealthy families/corporations have turned to security consultants for assistance in managing and resolving these incidents, mostly through the payment of ransom. In all but a few cases kidnappers seek financial gain, nothing more and nothing less. However, the desire for money provides the victims family/corporation the ability to exert some influence over the outcome through bargaining. This is because the kidnappers have only one entity they can attempt to sell the kidnap victim to. Bargaining almost always results in kidnappers accepting far less than they initially seek. Threats to harm the hostage in order to extort payment can be expected, but in the end kidnappers understand that killing the hostage gains them nothing. These factors usually help achieve a safe release of the victim. Political kidnappings or other types in which governments decide to play a significant role usually become far more difficult to resolve. Governments often feel that the payment of a ransom encourages future kidnappings. While true, failure to bargain or allow a family/corporation to pay a ransom usually condemns the victim to prolonged captivity or even death.
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http://www.garynoesner.com

James Rogerson Chief Operating Officer LGS Nigeria A series of recent media reports have defined Nigeria as being considered one of the worst countries in the world for kidnapping. We might not necessarily agree with these reports, however, our considerable experience, coupled to our knowledge and understanding of the reality on the ground, lead us to consider the situation as being very serious. We believe that Nigeria will present an increased risk of kidnapping in 2013. We rank countries according to a five tier scale and currently consider Nigeria as High Risk; the level below Extreme.

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Dan O'Shea Former Coordinator of the Hostage Working Group at the US Embassy in Iraq A decade removed from the Al Qaeda (AQ) initiated hostage-beheading terrorism campaign in Iraq in 2004 has evolved into the kidnapping for ransom (KFR) model fueling the jihadist resurgence the world is seeing on display in Africa today. Dispelling any optimism that the threat from AQ (and other like minded terrorist groups) has rescinded the devolution in hostage terrorism from posting gruesome video executions has returned to the more traditional raison d'tre for kidnappings to raise money and awareness. Western nations have secretly paid millions in kidnapping ransoms to AQIM and affiliates to release some of the 50 expatriates (11 are still being held). These ransom payments estimates range from 30 to 48 million euros ($40 to $65 million). Africa, not the Arab world, is the new front on the terrorist hostage-taking campaign from Kenya to Algeria, Nigeria to Sudan and across the volatile Horn of Africa infested by piracy. Hostage-Terrorism* is a transnational problem compounded by links to transnational criminal organizations and their modus operandi. Nationalities and victims are profiled, surveilled, and targeted for return on investment by terrorist and criminals alike. The nexus between terrorist and criminal organizations has fostered unparalleled sharing of tactics, resources and networks like smuggling routes across the Islamic Magreb in northern Africa and beyond.
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Kidnappings occur for both financial and political gain and the continued presence and activities of criminals and militants has led the authorities in Nigeria to express their concerns as to the high threat level to foreigners. Criminals have developed a highly lucrative enterprise worth millions of dollars a year, foreigners are considered as valuable targets, however, in reality the vast majority of victims are Nigerian citizens. Islamist groups are also active and have kidnapped a number of foreigners. Boko Haram recently announced a suspension of activities, however, it is far too early to draw any conclusions. In addition to Boko Haram, the militant Islamist group Ansaru poses a risk to foreigners living or visiting Nigeria. Last month Ansaru, which is believed to be affiliated to alQaeda, kidnapped a French engineer in the northern state of Katsina. Frances intervention in Mali and the United Kingdoms decision to support military activities will lead to French and British citizens being targeted throughout Africa, one of our major concerns is that criminal kidnappings may take place in the south of Nigeria with the objective of selling the victims to Islamist groups. To further compound difficulties, we believe that the issue of maritime crime and specifically the kidnapping of foreign workers from vessels and offshore installations will worsen during 2013. Companies with a permanent presence in Nigeria, or those visiting the country on business, should be advised against any form of complacency as the risk of kidnapping remains very high.

http://www.lgsnigeria.com

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the criminal act of abducting and holding individuals against their will to announce their agenda, raise their profile, negatively influence, disrupt and degrade political will and the decision-making ability of their declared adversary. Their hostages are used for the purpose of making public demands, raising awareness to their cause and or funds by privately extorting ransoms or forcing concessions from nations or entities.

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) evolved out of a failed Islamic fundamentalist insurgency against the government of Algeria after a decade long civil war in the nineties. With the collapse of Moammar Qaddafis Libya and Malis central government AQIM experienced a rebirth and resurgence principally funded by lucrative kidnapping ransoms in the millions paid by foreign governments. Armed by a flood of weapons after the fall of Libya and partnerships, AQIM was able to capitalize on the enduring indigenous Taureg secessionist campaign and nearly overrun an entire sovereign country. When France reacted to the AQIM land grab in Mali AQIM responded with dramatic hostage taking of a Western gas refinery in Algeria that resulted international headlines and, at the time of writing, more than 40 dead or missing from eight different nations. AQIMs collaboration with other insurrectionary groups like the Taureg and Boko Haram in Nigeria are causing alarms at the highest US and International levels. General Carter Ham, the Commander of AFRICA COMMAND (AFRICOM) recently commented; The linkages between al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram are probably the most worrisome in terms of the indications we have that they are likely sharing funds, training and explosive materials, which can be quite dangerous. Kidnapping for Ransom is financing the entire campaign of terror and spread of hardline jihadist influence throughout the continent. * Hostage-Terrorism: terrorist groups who use
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Nigerias Boko Haram Paid by Algerian Terrorists to Kidnap Westerners

Video of French hostages kidnapped in Niger by al Qaeda

Mali militants release Spanish and Italian hostages

Mali terrorists kidnap French national

Al-Qaeda behind Nigeria kidnap

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cyber response from a law-enforcement approach typically more suited to cyber ransom incidents, to a more aggressive preemption and prevention strategy. The implications for both the likely victims of such attacks, and for those responsible for providing cyber defence will be considerable, not least because they will need to adapt very rapidly to a new reality, to which few would have been fully prepared. It will further prompt an urgent examination of cyber security with a more clear and present focus to this tier 1 threat.

Dan Solomon Vice President Europe Security Art 2013 will see a serious deterioration in the cyber security situation in the western world, driven by the activities of both terrorism and radical Muslim actors such as Hizbollah, as well as state sponsored activities, particularly from Iran and Syria as part of its response to the inevitable collapse of Syria, ongoing confrontation with the West, and other high probable interventionist actions that will prompt 'retaliation'. The majority of this activity will be targeted against the critical infrastructure of the nations leading any intervention in these and other Arab/Muslim states including North Africa: i.e. UK, France, Israel and USA. These activities will seek to be more malicious than any previous attacks, and will aim to cause permanent denial of service or damage to hardware and services it attacks. These attacks will change the nature of the cyber security and resilience dialogue very rapidly, as the established, reactive approach to security will be inappropriate to the threats encountered, and organisational continuity plans will be shown to be ineffective; with back-up data also compromised, and insufficient redundant capacity available to cater for the loss of hardware such attacks. This chain of events will crystallize ongoing debates regarding cyber war in its definition & scope, the legality and nature of response, the development of doctrine either in retaliation or deterrence, and a swift escalation of counter07

http://www.security-art.com

Taryn Evans Intelligence Analyst AKE Despite the increased media attention on the kidnap for ransom risk in the Middle East, particularly following the recent attack in Algeria, it is Latin America that is likely to continue registering the greatest number of kidnap for ransom cases over the coming year. The situation in Mexico and Venezuela has deteriorated considerably over the past 12-18 months and will continue to do so for as long as the security forces in both countries are either directly involved in kidnapping or are unable to offer any serious response to it. A notable variation in both demands and settlements is a characteristic of kidnap cases in this region, a direct result of varying experience and capacity of kidnap groups in operation. The risk of an increase in spillover attacks occurring in the border regions of the US should not be underestimated.

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This confluence of kidnappers looking for victims, and wealthy corporate employees will further drive up kidnapping in the region. Conversely in Colombia, we are likely to see the kidnap rate decline gently before levelling out. This is more a result of the ever-growing capacity of the security forces there, and consequently a reduction in the capacity of the various rebel and criminal groups, as opposed to a loss of interest in kidnap for ransom as a means of generating revenue. There are a number of hotspots in Africa which will also continue to see high numbers of kidnaps, notably the Sahel. We are likely to see an extension of the range of kidnappings within this region, further south into Mali and down to northern Nigeria; kidnappings in these areas as across the Sahel are likely to result in relatively lengthy captivity times. Clinical psychology is set to play a more important role in protecting people against the effects of kidnap.

http://www.akegroup.com

Mike Drayton Director Opus Kidnap and Hostage Solutions I see kidnapping becoming far more virulent in West Africa. This is due to an interaction of two factors: First al Shabab and other AQ affiliates are being slowly pushed out of south central Somalia and are losing funding. They will be seeking out new sources of income. Second, There is increasing corporate interest in Africa. The telecom, banking, retail, construction and oil and gas industries are now booming, bringing about a surge in foreign investment and bringing ex-pat workers, into the region.
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This will be in three areas. First, in pre-kidnap hostage survival training. Training those at risk in psychological resilience will vastly improve outcomes when the person is eventually released. Second, in post kidnap care. Businesses are coming to realise how important it is to protect their employees intellectual capital from the results of psychological trauma. It is one thing freeing a hostage, but if that person is no longer able to function psychologically, then it is a tragedy and a great loss in many respects. Finally, psychological techniques (such as the cognitive interview) will become more common in gathering intelligence during post incident debriefs. Hostages will know a lot about their captors and their MO; but, without a skilled psychological debrief, they will have trouble accessing that knowledge.

http://www.opushostagesolutions.com

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kidnaps even more likely throughout the region. George Readings Analyst Stirling Assynt One of the key issues we at Stirling Assynt will be assisting our clients with in 2013 will be the increased kidnap threat in the Sahel region and North Africa following French military action in Mali. Immediately after Paris began operations against Islamist fighters based there, two jihadist groups - al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQM) and the Movement for Monotheism and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA) - warned they would retaliate against France. Then, on 16 January, fighters linked to AQM attacked a gas facility in eastern Algerian taking hostage a number of foreign workers. Further major attacks against isolated Western targets, particularly those in the extractive sector, are likely in the coming months. Frances military action comes ten months after a coup in Bamako caused disarray throughout Mali, allowing the Islamist group Ansar al-Din and its jihadist allies AQM and MOJWA to seize control of the North. The emergence of Mali as a hub for jihadists has enabled them to increase their support and strength throughout the region. Consequently, in December the UN Security Council endorsed plans for an Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-led force to drive them out. Such action is not imminent but, when it commences, foreign jihadists will likely flood into Mali to defend their brethren, making
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It will also intensify regional instability, which is already contributing to the formation of new jihadist groups - some of which are even more aggressive than AQM, further increasing the risk of abductions. Moreover, jihadists will likely present military action in northern Mali as part of a crusade against Islam. They will then exploit Muslim anger and regional instability exacerbated by the intervention to expand their recruitment and presence, even in areas outside their traditional strongholds.

http://www.stirlingassynt.com

Roberto Manunta Strategy and Security Advisor Manunta Group 2013 will offer us some interesting times in Europe. As the middle classes are drastically reduced by the financial crisis, amplified by asymmetric austerity measures, the trend of wealth polarization will increase: the poor will get poorer and the rich will get richer. With unemployment at already staggering levels and an ever growing number of people falling below the poverty line, Governments will need to perform exceptionally well in order to restore trust in the population and keep social unrest at bay. Economic pressure is such that we will very likely experience increasing criminal activity, especially thefts, robberies, extortions, and frauds.

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People will move along the spectrum from the legal to the illegal, partly forced by circumstance, partly lured by a twisted sense of justice under a 21st century Robin Hood rationale. The increased polarization of wealth, together with the greater availability of information due to social media and the established etiquette of if you have it, flaunt it, offers to potential kidnappers unprecedented intelligence capability for target selection, ransom evaluation and mission planning. I would, therefore, expect to see a sharp rise in kidnapping, in particular of the quick and dirty type: few hours to two days abductions with low cash ransom. I would expect to see it especially in countries with a history in such crimes, notably Spain and Italy. I would not be surprised to see a rise in haterelated crime. Some political actors in Europe are already cashing in on the extremist nationalist ticket. Abductions for political reasons or just for violent action are also to be expected. Finally, hostage taking might as well happen, perhaps as part of hard-line industrial negotiations. So far there have been isolated displays of despair. The step from despair to conflict is only one step away. These dynamics will force the hand of institutional response, which will trigger wider social turmoil. This will in turn increase reliance on the private sector as security provider, which will eventually push the boundaries of regulation. 2013 will definitely be a challenging year.

Chelsea Dommert Political Risk Analyst Pioneer Consulting Group Civil unrest in the Middle East and increased internationalization among SMBs will likely affect kidnapping patterns in 2013. Ongoing civil unrest in the MENA region will expand opportunity for kidnapping. First, political turmoil and inadequate public security (police and military) allows terror groups to operate inside major cities where groups will kidnap public officials to snag media attention and make demands of the nascent government or foreign governments. Second, lawless areas will continue to provide a safe haven for pirates, particularly in East and West Africa and along the Arabian Peninsula. Decreases in violent conflict in these areas correlated with a steep drop in piracy from 2011 to 2012, but civil unrest in northern Africa could spurn conflicts further south that boost piracy attempts in 2013, especially within the Gulf of Guinea area. Unlike ideologically motivated terrorist groups, pirates want the ransom money more than political or ideological acquiescence.

http://www.manuntagroup.com
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Ioannis Chapsos Cpt. (ret) Hellenic Navy Research Fellow in Maritime Security at Coventry University Although the Maritime Security domain in general and the related criminal activities in particular are not predictable, I will attempt to present a couple of logical assumptions which will also form my research interests during 2013. Somali piracy is already in decline; yet, Im pretty confident that we didnt reach the state which could enable the statement that the phenomenon is completely suppressed in the East coast of Africa and the Indian Ocean. Leading figures from the active pirate groups may have officially publicised their withdrawal from action (!) in the mainstream media, but the root causes and causal factors which enable piracy and provide the incentive for piracy to flourish are still in place. The booming industry of Private Maritime Security services is already researching new business opportunities and markets, focusing specifically on the new emerging epicentre of insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea. The recent attack which resulted in the death of two armed guards onboard a supply vessel demonstrated explicitly the completely different environment and parameters of the West African coast compared to the East; the already tensed regional geopolitical situation due to the Western intervention in Mali will boost anti-Western sentiments even more, with analogous implications ashore. The further deployment of floating armouries in the Gulf of Guinea and the attempt to deploy non-autochthonous armed guards
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Third, continued violence in the Levant churns out refugees. In addition to Palestinian and Kurdish asylum-seekers, over half a million Syrian refugees have fled war in their country, creating an alarming humanitarian crisis and overflowing refugee camps. Recruiters target these camps to collect victims for human trafficking and forced labor, which remain lucrative and continue to grow by around 3 percent annually. Though the recruiters rarely kidnap their victims, they deceive them with false offers of jobs, travel, marriage, and hope. Also, thanks to the ease of transnational communication, small business growth, and decreased regulatory procedures (like the Magnitsky Act), American small businesses will export more in 2013. If business owners find themselves traveling overseas for the first time, they might underestimate risks to their security. Itll be crucial for publications like KR Magazine to educate readers about precautionary measures to avoid high-risk situations.

http://www.pioneerconsultinggroup.com

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With the discovery of energy reserves offshore Ghana and Angola, the demand for Ship To Ship (STS) cargo transfers will grow and, with the growth in tanker traffic, so too will the number of potential targets for criminal groups involved in refined product cargo theft. In contrast to media perception, the number of EDRs actually decreased from 2011 2012, however, the threat area has spread both to the west (Ivory Coast) and south from the anchorages, with an EDR recorded some 80 NM south of Lome in October 2012. This adaptive criminal industry is both intelligence led and capable of operating far beyond Nigerian territorial waters where the threat originated. On a wider issue, Dryad will also be monitoring the impact of Nigerian military deployment to Mali, following the current French and Malian campaign to combat Islamic radicalism. The transfer of specialist Nigerian skills away from the fight against the countrys home grown radical group Boko Haram could have an indirect impact on crime both on land and at sea. With a decline in the physical security presence seen onshore, the risk of kidnapping to both foreign and indigenous nationals may also increase. We will be watching this carefully.

in escorts will be the primary actions in order to penetrate the regional legal framework. Inevitably the risk of violent and armed clashes with local groups will be increased accordingly and potential further human casualties should be of great concern. Unfortunately, I foresee no changes in the IUU fishing domain, with significant crimes perpetrated within the fishing industry, since the international communitys efforts are focused solely (or mostly) on piracy issues.

Danielle Dix Gulf of Guinea Desk Officer Dryad Maritime Intelligence In 2012, the international media focused upon the emergence of hijacking of vessels and crew transiting West African waters. Categorised by Dryad Maritime as Extended Duration Robberies (EDR), in order to disassociate this from the Somali model of ship hijack for ransom, EDRs were in evidence prior to 2011 and were not a new phenomenon after all. Dryads attention in the coming year will focus on monitoring the expansion of the reach of criminal groups involved in the cargo theft industry, with a view to providing predictive intelligence to mitigate the risk. From Nigeria and Benin in 2011 to Togo and the Ivory Coast in 2012, the first EDR of 2013 reported in the waters offshore Abidjan, was recorded on 16th 17th January.
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http://www.dryadmaritime.com

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Coralie Ayres Defense, Security and Risk Consultant IHS Janes The In Amenas hostage tragedy in Algeria and Frances Operation Serval in Mali has heightened the perception of crisis in North Africa specifically that the risk of kidnapping is rising. Kidnapping has long been a profitable enterprise for both terrorist and criminal groups operating in the Sahel. Weapons from the former Libyan regime have flowed to militant and criminal networks in the region just at the time indigenous security forces have been weakened or their attention focused elsewhere. Katibat al Muqaoon bil Dumaas attack in Algeria will likely encourage further kidnappings for ransom in the coming year. Algerian security forces among the best trained and equipped in the region demonstrated an ability to respond to a crisis but underlined their inability to deter one. For both ideological and opportunistic reasons, Western expatriate and third country nationals especially those working for foreign companies will be primary targets. The energy industry will be disproportionately targeted because of its value to regimes in the region. After the intervention in Mali, French nationals are at particular risk. Hostage-taking has proven an effective way to attract international attention, but it is also less profitable and more risky for terrorist groups
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than kidnapping. The focus of these groups will likely remain on kidnapping in 2013. It is important to understand these threat groups are not some monolithic entity all sharing the same goal. Indeed, individual groups objectives will evolve in reaction to internal group dynamics and as the security environment changes. Western powers will give greater attention and resource to the region and indigenous security forces will prioritize tackling these threat groups. The French operation should lower the attraction of northern Mali as a safe haven, at least in the short term. Algeria is likely to put additional resources to control its southern border and vital energy facilities, given the significance of oil and gas production for the Algerian economy. In short, threat groups ability to replicate the hostagetaking against private foreign companies in Algeria will be more limited. But not removed. Companies working in the region must continue to emphasize security risk management, identifying vulnerabilities, tracking threats and emplacing risk commensurate counter strategies.

http://www.ihs.com