The Daily Forecaster

31st March 2009

General Outlook

Well, so much for expecting a correction before the Dollar made further gains It made its intentions well know early in European trading and blew a hole through all the resistance levels I thought would hold and in many cases extended those gains to the levels that I thought wed be seeing today or tomorrow. At the Dollars peaks yesterday we did see bearish divergences form so its not impossible that we have already seen the full extent of the correction from the Dollar lows seen around 10 days ago. A resumption of the medium term Dollar decline against the Europeans hasnt quite been confirmed so we should hold back a little until these confirmations have been seen. Until then there is still the slight chance that we could see one more rally. One of the reasons for my caution is that I am not totally convinced that we have seen the low in GBPUSD. My favored target remains between 1.3842 and 1.3948. Yesterdays 1.4110 low was a valid projection but it does leave the low in an area which doesnt seem to fit in with the larger picture. Thus while the 1.4347-67 (max 1.4421) area holds any pullback beware of another spike lower. However, once it reaches my target Ill be looking for a sizeable recovery then. The exception to the Dollars strength was USDJPY which failed to overcome the required break level to send it higher. This triggered losses which promptly moved to just a little below my 96.20 support. I am ever-aware of the daily cycle high due at any time but until yesterdays low breaks Ill still prefer a scenario that calls for a move above 102.00 over the course of this week. That event should signal a reversal The losses in USDJPY spilled over into the JPY crosses which extended losses more than I had anticipated. It does make me a touch uncomfortable but they do look bullish today. USDCAD rallied exceptionally well and to even just above the 1.2630 target. We should see a pullback at the very least but we need take care as it is smack in the middle of a very indecisive area since I feel it should rally just at the time where Im expecting the Dollar to be generally weak. Good luck. Please note that The Daily Forecaster will take a break around Easter from 10th April to 14th April

Ian Copsey

The art of forecasting

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The Daily Forecaster

Summary
USDJPY
While 97.78 supports look for gains close to 98.86 again

Resistance
101.30 100.54-76 99.52-67 98.86 98.60 98.30-36

Support
97.78 97.42 97.03-14 96.75 95.98 95.31

The 98.30-37 resistance was not touched yesterday and instead we saw losses deepen all the way to the 96.20 support and just below at 95.98. However, this low should now be the spring board for the final rally to the 102.-103 target. Today should see 97.78 support and extend the immediate rally to the 98.86 high. However, this should trigger a correction and I suspect this is going to stall around the 97.42-78 area again. A break above 98.86 would provide the momentum for a retest of the 99.67 high at least...

1 EURUSD

Go to detailed analysis
A break above 1.3225 should extend gains to 1.3305 and possibly higher

Resistance
1.3425-30 1.3371 1.3351 1.3280-05 1.3244 1.3225

Support
1.3173-00 1.3144 1.3112 1.3068 1.2995-10 1.2930-64

The loss of 1.3171-1.3210 opened the floodgates for stronger losses that stalled just above the 1.3070-92 support. There is a bullish divergence in the hourly chart and this morning's push above 1.3208 is threatening a break of 1.3225 which should prompt follow-through. Take a little care at 1.3244 but I feel this move should reach 1.3305 at least. Indeed, this area is likely to cause a small correction but then allow the rally to extend towards 1.3371 and 1.3425-30 at least.

1 USDCHF

Go to detailed analysis
The break below 1.1475 should see losses to 1.1402 at least and may indicate 1.1320-53

Resistance
1.1696 1.1652-74 1.1623 1.1580 1.1548 1.1510-15

Support
1.1446 1.1402 1.1375 1.1320-53 1.1287 1.1249

The high at 1.1548 has come with a bearish divergence and this does seem to suggest that we have seen the end of the recovery. This morning's break below 1.1475 has a minimum target at 1.1402 and normally we'd expect a small correction from around this area. Any extension below 1.1400 would risk follow-through to 1.1320-53 which is also a pivot supprot area and thus take care as a pullback is possible from here. Breach would open the floor for losses to extend to 1.1249 and possibly all the way to the 1.1157 low.

2 GBPUSD

Go to detailed analysis
I'm more mixed here and see resistance at 1.4347-67 that must break to sustain gains

Resistance
1.4620-40 1.4515-20 1.4444 1.4421 1.4367 1.4322-47

Support
1.4270 1.4235 1.4210 1.4167 1.4110-30 1.4011-49

Losses were strong and the break of 1.4170 supplied the leg down to 1.4110. There was no bullish divergence and with my targets much lower I am reluctant to turn bullish just yet. There is resistance around 1.4322-47 which I feel may hold (max 1.4367) and from here a break back below 1.4270 shoudl extend losses once again to 1.4210 and 1.4110-30 initially and while this could cause a pullback I feel the larger risk is still lower. Note support at 1.4011-49 and 1.3948...

2 AUDUSD

Go to detailed analysis
A decent pullback has been seen and only above 0.6873 will extend gains to 0.6903 & 0.6946

Resistance
0.7049 0.7016 0.6969 0.6946 0.6892-03 0.6873

Support
0.6840 0.6810 0.6769 0.6734 0.6716 0.6630-71

Break of the 0.6865 low triggered a strong follow through to stall 4 pips above the 0.6865 support. We have seen a move higher already this morning but I feel that the 0.6873 high may be tough to break on this test. Thus wait for break which should maintain the bullish momentum for 0.6903 at least and potentially 0.6946. Around this higher resistance (and possibly just below) we should see a correction lower. Thus only above 0.6950 would trigger further gains to 0.6969 and 0.7016 at least.

1 USDCAD
Mixed - waiting for breaks

Go to detailed analysis

Resistance
1.2842 1.2730-70 1.2712 1.2679 1.2646 1.2606

Support
1.2535-50 1.2487 1.2455 1.2418 1.2364 1.2330-40

The break above 1.2444 did indeed generate strong gains as expected that reached the 1.2630 target and just above at 1.2646. There is quite a firm bearish divergence and thus we have to be cautious about the upside and would require a break back above 1.2606 to return to the 1.2646 high and in turn a break there should trigger stronger follow-through to 1.2679 minimum and I suspect further to the 1.2730-70 resistance. I feel this will cap if seen and generate a correction. Further resistance is found at 1.2842-68.

1 EURJPY

Go to detailed analysis
I look for the 128.56-91 area to support and for gains back above 130.08 for 131.42

Resistance
132.60 131.82 131.42 131.06 130.60 130.08

Support
129.40 128.91 128.56 128.20 127.53 126.43

Losses were more aggressive than expected reaching just below the 126.69 support, stalling at 126.43. The recovery from there has been constructive and I feel there is further to go but not before a correction. I see early trading extending the pullback to the 128.56-91 area which I feel will support. From there look for a return to this morning's 130.08 high and while it should cause a small pullback I feel there is risk for the rally to extend to 131.06 at least and more likely the 131.42 area where I feel we will see a cap.

1 GBPJPY

Go to detailed analysis
We should see the 139.30 area (max 138.95) support for gains to 140.71-00 and possibly 141.95

Resistance
145.07 143.50-72 142.86 141.95 141.49 140.71-00

Support
139.90 139.30 138.95 138.56 137.60-90 136.80-00

Losses were slightly stronger than expected yesterday and this really does cause some confusion. However, having stalled just above the 134.87 swing low I do feel that we should see a push higher first. I see resistance at 140.71-00 and while this caps any pullback should remain above the 138.95-139.30 support. From here (or directly) a break back above 141.00 would maintain gains for 141.95 at least. Take care around here. Next resistance is at 142.86 and then stronger at 143.50-72.

Go to detailed analysis

The Daily Forecaster USDJPY

Price 97.96
31st March 2009 Resistance 101.30 100.54-76 99.52-67 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 98.86 98.60 98.30-36 Support 97.78 97.42 97.03-14 96.75 95.98 95.31
While 97.78 supports look for gains close to 98.86 again

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore the main risk is higher. Ensure that key supports levels hold. Note key resistance levels that would suggest continuation of the bullish move. Consider confirming this with a bullish set up pattern in price or an indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break and is supported by a bearish set up in price or an indicator. Consider buy set ups at: 97.40-60 Consider sell set ups at: 98.86 (with care)

Daily Bullish 1 Med Term Bullish

The 98.30-37 resistance was not touched yesterday and instead we saw losses deepen all the way to the 96.20 support and just below at 95.98. However, this low should now be the spring board for the final rally to the 102.-103 target. Today should see 97.78 support and extend the immediate rally to the 98.86 high. However, this should trigger a correction and I suspect this is going to stall around the 97.42-78 area again. A break above 98.86 would provide the momentum for a retest of the 99.67 high at least... 30th March: We are coming towards the major cycle high and thus I see strength over the next 5-8 days but above the 99.67-95 area to go on to reach the 102.46-103.20 target. Breach of 97.70 and then 97.38 had a big enough impact to send price all the way down to just below the 96.20 support. I am aware of the larger daily cycles finding a high and thus we do need to understand that any drop now below 97.40 and 97.03 could prove fatal. If seen then expect a

Daily Bearish retest of the 95.98 low and if it breaks then I feel we may have seen a major high already and thus expect stronger losses to 95.31, 94.80 and finally 1 Med term Bearish
to the 93.54 low... 27th March: The rally continues and I feel the most we are likely to see on the downside is around 96.00-25. Thus only begin to look at stronger losses below here and 95.30 If seen it should cause a retest at 93.54.

EURUSD

Price

1.3218

31st March 2009 Resistance 1.3425-30 1.3371 1.3351 1.3280-05 1.3244 1.3225 Support 1.3173-00 1.3144 1.3112 1.3068 1.2995-10 1.2930-64

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

A break above 1.3225 should extend gains to 1.3305 and possibly higher

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is bullish. Caution is advised but there is a mild preference for gains within a consolidation. However, be aware of the risk of choppy price action that could hit stops. Therefore take note of both daily & MT S&R and confirm any bullish trade with bullish set up patterns. It would also be advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support bullish trades. Consider buy set ups at: 1.3305-15 (with care) Consider sell set ups at: None

Daily Bullish 1 Med Term Bullish

The loss of 1.3171-1.3210 opened the floodgates for stronger losses that stalled just above the 1.3070-92 support. There is a bullish divergence in the hourly chart and this morning's push above 1.3208 is threatening a break of 1.3225 which should prompt follow-through. Take a little care at 1.3244 but I feel this move should reach 1.3305 at least. Indeed, this area is likely to cause a small correction but then allow the rally to extend towards 1.3371 and 1.3425-30 at least. 30th March: The pullback should continue into mid week but the favored support will either be at 1.3070-90 or 1.2930-45 and from there look for additional gains. Only a prior move back above 1.3450 would threaten an earlier resumption of gains. Having almost reached the 1.3070-92 support the downside has become lower risk but I can't rule it out completely. There is resistance at 1.3225-44 and while this caps any reversal back below 1.3173-00 should provide another test lower to retest yesterday's 1.3112 low and then 1.3068 at least. Take care as this is a valid support and could generate a larger reversal higher. Below 1.3065 triggers losses to the next larger support at 1.2930-64 but if this is seen I feel this would be the final low... 25th March: We seem to be seeing the pullback but while this remains above 1.3334 I still see more upside risk. Thus, only a breach of 1.3325 would reverse and prompt initial losses to 1.3232 and later to 1.3070-90 and possibly 1.2930.

Daily Bearish 3 Med term Bearish

The Daily Forecaster USDCHF

Price 1.1478
31st March 2009 Resistance 1.1696 1.1652-74 1.1623 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 1.1580 1.1548 1.1510-15 Support 1.1446 1.1402 1.1375 1.1320-53 1.1287 1.1249
The break below 1.1475 should see losses to 1.1402 at least and may indicate 1.1320-53

Bias

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore the main risk is lower. Ensure that key resistances levels hold. Note key support levels that would suggest continuation of the bearish move. Consider confirming this with a bearish set up pattern in price or an indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal higher should key MT resistance break and is supported by a bullish set up in price or an indicator. Consider buy set ups at: 1.1400 (with care) Consider sell set ups at: 1.1657-84

Daily Bullish 2 Med Term Bullish

Price initially struggled in early trading but finally broke above 1.1494 but then also through 1.1505 to reach 8 pips above the higher 1.1540 resistance. A bearish divergence has formed in the hourly chart and thus it is probable that we saw the final corrective high at 1.1548. Only a break back above 1.1510-15 would trigger a second test at 1.1548 and above there implies a move through to the 1.1657-74 area for a high.

30th March: The move we are seeing now is a correction and should stall around the 1.1657-74 area (max 1.1696.) Thus only above here extends to 1.1774 and maybe then the 1.1966 high. The high at 1.1548 has come with a bearish divergence and this does seem to suggest that we have seen the end of the recovery. This morning's break below 1.1475 has a minimum target at 1.1402 and normally we'd expect a small correction from around this area. Any extension below 1.1400

Daily Bearish would risk follow-through to 1.1320-53 which is also a pivot supprot area and thus take care as a pullback is possible from here. Breach would open 2 Med term Bearish
the floor for losses to extend to 1.1249 and possibly all the way to the 1.1157 low. 31st March: A peak at 1.1548 and this looks very likely to cause direct losses that should eventually break below the 1.1157 low and eventually target the 1.0682-1.0739 area. However, this could be complicated since the low is not expected until mid-April.

GBPUSD

Price

1.4310

31st March 2009 Resistance 1.4620-40 1.4515-20 1.4444 1.4421 1.4367 1.4322-47 Support 1.4270 1.4235 1.4210 1.4167 1.4110-30 1.4011-49

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

I'm more mixed here and see resistance at 1.4347-67 that must break to sustain gains

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs confirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move lower. It is very important that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks. Consider buy set ups at: None Consider sell set ups at: 1.4347-67 (with care)

Daily Bullish 3 Med Term Bullish

Losses were much stronger than anticipated but overall this supports my view. I see resistance at 1.4322-47 that should be tested at a minimum and at most 1.4367. However, to generate a stronger rally we'll need breach of 1.4370 which would then trigger follow-through to 1.4421. Take a little care here as it could cap. However, I feel that any break above 1.4367 should imply a stronger recovery to 1.4444 and probably 1.4515-20. Also note resistance at 1.4555 and 1.4620-40. 30th March: We are seeing losses and I suspect these should continue over the early part of this week. Only back above 1.4390 & 1.4440 would begin to bring back more bullish potential and if so then note the 1.4522 and 1.4570-00 resistance. Losses were strong and the break of 1.4170 supplied the leg down to 1.4110. There was no bullish divergence and with my targets much lower I am reluctant to turn bullish just yet. There is resistance around 1.4322-47 which I feel may hold (max 1.4367) and from here a break back below 1.4270 shoudl extend losses once again to 1.4210 and 1.4110-30 initially and while this could cause a pullback I feel the larger risk is still lower. Note support at 1.4011-49 and 1.3948... 30th March: I was quite satisfied with Friday's losses but these have not been deep enough to suggest a retest of 1.3653. However, while the 1.435890 (max 1.4436) resistance caps I feel it is possible to eventually reach the 1.3842-1.3948 area.

Daily Bearish 2 Med term Bearish

The Daily Forecaster AUDUSD

Price 0.6859
31st March 2009 Resistance 0.7049 0.7016 0.6969 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 0.6946 0.6892-03 0.6873 Support 0.6840 0.6810 0.6769 0.6734 0.6716 0.6630-71
A decent pullback has been seen and only above 0.6873 will extend gains to 0.6903 & 0.6946

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs confirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is very important that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks. Consider buy set ups at: 0.6950 Consider sell set ups at: 0.6940-46 with care

Daily Bullish 3 Med Term Bullish

Break of the 0.6865 low triggered a strong follow through to stall 4 pips above the 0.6865 support. We have seen a move higher already this morning but I feel that the 0.6873 high may be tough to break on this test. Thus wait for break which should maintain the bullish momentum for 0.6903 at least and potentially 0.6946. Around this higher resistance (and possibly just below) we should see a correction lower. Thus only above 0.6950 would trigger further gains to 0.6969 and 0.7016 at least. 30th March: I do feel that we shall eventually see a move above 0.7092 but more likely we shall see better buying levels - and feel these may be around the 0.6734-65 area. Only an earlier break above 0.7005 area would threaten an earlier retest of 0.7092... Once the 0.6865 support gave way losses were quite direct and reached the 0.6865 support area swiftly. We have already seen a pullback higher to 0.6873 and this places us right in the middle of a trading area where we could see a move in either direction... If we see a move to 0.6940-46 I

Daily Bearish suspect this will generate a peak and thus look for selling opportunities. Any earlier break below 0.6810 would return price to the 0.6769 low and 1 Med term Bearish
possibly further to 0.6734 at least. Only breach then sees 0.6630. 31st March: Higher support targets have already been achieved and with a bullish divergence we have to be cautious about further losses. Thus only back below 0.6865 would suggest potential for 0.6734 and 0.6630

USDCAD

Price

1.2569

31st March 2009 Resistance 1.2842 1.2730-70 1.2712 1.2679 1.2646 1.2606 Support 1.2535-50 1.2487 1.2455 1.2418 1.2364 1.2330-40

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

Mixed - waiting for breaks

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is neutral. Therefore it may be better to sit out of the market or trade breaks when supported by bullish or bearish set up patterns. It is advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support a trade in either direction. It may well be advisable to take profits when seen or if there is a larger break out to consider using a trailing stop to protect profits. Consider buy set ups at: 1.2455-87 Consider sell set ups at: 1.2450

Daily Bullish 3 Med Term Bullish

The break above 1.2444 did indeed generate strong gains as expected that reached the 1.2630 target and just above at 1.2646. There is quite a firm bearish divergence and thus we have to be cautious about the upside and would require a break back above 1.2606 to return to the 1.2646 high and in turn a break there should trigger stronger follow-through to 1.2679 minimum and I suspect further to the 1.2730-70 resistance. I feel this will cap if seen and generate a correction. Further resistance is found at 1.2842-68. 31st March: We have reached the lower target resistance at 1.2630 and a small breach to 1.2646. Only a break above here would maintain the upward momentum for 1.2712 minimum and potentially 1.2730-70 which I feel would provoke a correction if seen. With a bearish divergence having formed at just above the 1.2630 resistance I feel there is a good argument for a bigger pullback. We shall need the 1.2606-46 area to cap. A break below the 1.2549 seen thus far and also 1.2535, the larger risk will be lower to 1.2487-00 at least and I suspect 1.2455. Take care here as this should cause a correction higher. Thus only below 1.2450 maintains losses for 1.2418, 1.2364 and stronger pivot & Fibonacci support at 1.2330-40. 31st March: Having reached 1.2630-46 there is every risk that we'll see a pullback at the very least. A break below 1.2535 followed by 1.2455 would see 1.2330-40 at least. If this breaks a retest of the 1.2189-00 lows is likely.

Daily Bearish 3 Med term Bearish

The Daily Forecaster EURJPY

Price 129.88
31st March 2009 Resistance 132.60 131.82 131.42 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 131.06 130.60 130.08 Support 129.40 128.91 128.56 128.20 127.53 126.43
I look for the 128.56-91 area to support and for gains back above 130.08 for 131.42

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore the main risk is higher. Ensure that key supports levels hold. Note key resistance levels that would suggest continuation of the bullish move. Consider confirming this with a bullish set up pattern in price or an indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break and is supported by a bearish set up in price or an indicator. Consider buy set ups at: 128.56-91 Consider sell set ups at: 131.06-42

Daily Bullish 1 Med Term Bullish

Losses were more aggressive than expected reaching just below the 126.69 support, stalling at 126.43. The recovery from there has been constructive and I feel there is further to go but not before a correction. I see early trading extending the pullback to the 128.56-91 area which I feel will support. From there look for a return to this morning's 130.08 high and while it should cause a small pullback I feel there is risk for the rally to extend to 131.06 at least and more likely the 131.42 area where I feel we will see a cap. 31st March: Having seen the downside reach 126.42 I feel we should now be in store for a move to new highs. This should see the 128.56-91 area support for extension to 131.42 at least and maybe further with the 134.51 high the obvious first target. Losses were very strong and pushed the lower supports, stalling a little way below the 126.69 support. I feel this has probably completed the correction. Currently we have seen a peak at 130.08 and this does seem to suggest a pullback lower to 129.40 at least and probably down to the

Daily Bearish 128.56-91 area. I feel this will hold for further gains. Thus only below 128.50 would trigger follow-through for yesterday's 126.43 low and potentially 1 Med term Bearish
125.07. 25th March: I feel we may have seen an intermediate (but not final) high at 134.50. If so then there is risk of losses to 127.30 & 126.68 which I think will hold. However, note the next support at 125.06. Only below here would trigger stronger losses.

GBPJPY

Price

140.42

31st March 2009 Resistance 145.07 143.50-72 142.86 141.95 141.49 140.71-00 Support 139.90 139.30 138.95 138.56 137.60-90 136.80-00

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

We should see the 139.30 area (max 138.95) support for gains to 140.71-00 and possibly 141.95

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore the main risk is higher. Ensure that key supports levels hold. Note key resistance levels that would suggest continuation of the bullish move. Consider confirming this with a bullish set up pattern in price or an indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break and is supported by a bearish set up in price or an indicator. 141.05 with care Consider sell set ups at: 141.95 or 143.50-72 Consider buy set ups at: Losses were slightly stronger than expected yesterday and this really does cause some confusion. However, having stalled just above the 134.87 swing low I do feel that we should see a push higher first. I see resistance at 140.71-00 and while this caps any pullback should remain above the

Daily Bullish 138.95-139.30 support. From here (or directly) a break back above 141.00 would maintain gains for 141.95 at least. Take care around here. Next 1 Med Term Bullish
resistance is at 142.86 and then stronger at 143.50-72. 31st March: I feel we are going to see some consolidation but this does imply initial gains. I suspect these will reach 141.95 at a minimum and possibly 142.86 and maximum 143.50-72. Only above this area would raise the risk of a closer retest of the 145.07 high. After a strong down day yesterday I don't see much room for losses today. If the 140.71-00 resistance caps then we could see a pullback and if so then a move back below 140.50 and 139.90 should allow a test of 139.30. However, beyond that I have my doubts. Thus only if this area breaks would there appear to be risk of another decline to 138.56. Break there opens up 137.60-90 and the 136.80-00 area.

Daily Bearish 1 Med term Bearish

31st March: Losses were stronger than expected but remained above the key 134.87 major corrective low and while I don't think we shall see a new high I feel we'll have to be patient for a few more days to see stronger losses.