Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 12, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 12, 2013

Highlights
Japans M2 Money Stock was at 2.7 percent in the last month. French Industrial Production declined by 0.1 percent in December. UKs RICS House Price Balance declined by 4 percent in January. Asian markets are trading on a positive note today on the back of statement from Haruhiko Kuroda, a contender for Bank of Japan governor said that additional monetary easing is possible in this year.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI** BOVESPA** NIKKEI** Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5897.9 19460.6 13971.24 1517.0 16529.9 1950.9 58497.8 11153.2 97.03 1648.20 3089.50 8201.00 101.88 Prev. day -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 1.0 0.2 -1.8 1.4 -1.1 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1

as on February 11, 2013 WoW -1.5 -1.5 0.7 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 -1.8 -0.1 0.9 -1.4 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.4 MoM -2.1 -2.2 3.4 3.1 -4.7 -2.8 -5.8 5.1 3.1 -2.1 -0.6 4.5 YoY 9.6 9.6 9.1 13.0 1.0 -0.9 -8.6 24.7 -1.7 -4.4 -8.0 -3.2 -1.9

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.1 percent yesterday on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US equities also traded on a negative note which also supported an upside in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of Euro zone finance ministers agreeing for a private study for emergency loans to Cyprus exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched an intra-day high of 80.48 and closed at 80.39 on Monday.

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from oil firms and importers. Additionally, statement from Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao that inflation is still high caused concerns about economic growth and exerted downside pressure on the currency. Apart from that, weak domestic market sentiments also acted as a negative factor for Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 53.97 and closed at 53.95 against dollar on Monday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.18,738.50 crores ($3,519.65 million) as on 11th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.40,797.50 crores ($7,579.0 million) till th 11 February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of countrys Industrial production expected to come on a positive note along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of dollar demand along with Indias trade balance tentatively expected to come on an unfavorable note.

Source: Reuters th (** Prices as on 8 February 2013 as markets closed on account of holidays)

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.39 53.95 53.98 53.98 Prev. day 0.1 -0.7 0.45 0.44

as on February 11, 2013 WoW 1.0 -1.2 0.94 0.95 MoM 1.1 1.0 -1.75 -1.76 YoY 1.5 -8.5 8.74 8.73

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for February 12, 2013 Support 53.80/53.70 Resistance 54.10/54.20

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 12, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of Euro Zone finance ministers agreeing for private study on how to implement anti-money laundering in the Cyprus for the purpose of emergency loans. Additionally, ministers agreed to discuss in March on how to bring Portugal and Ireland back into the markets which also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was prevented on account of French Industrial Production declined by 0.1 percent in December as against a rise of 0.5 percent a month ago. Strength in the DX also capped further gains in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3427 and closed at 1.3406 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, positive outcome from the Euro Zone finance ministers meeting yesterday will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.95/71.70 72.30/72.45 valid for February 12, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3406 72.30 72.20 72.2 Prev. day 0.3 -1.0 0.20 0.20

as on February 11, 2013 WoW -0.8 -0.4 -0.43 -0.46 MoM 0.2 0.7 -0.85 -0.87 9.76 9.75 YoY 1.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5657 84.481 84.67 Prev. day -0.88 -0.23 0.00

as on February 11, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.9 percent yesterday taking cues from weak global market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the currency. UKs Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance declined by 4 percent in January from earlier fall of 1 percent in December. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.565 and closed at 1.5657 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) Input along with Retail Price Index (RPI) economic data expected to come on a positive note. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 12, 2013 Support 84.30/84.0 Resistance 85.0/85.45 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW -0.7 0.63 0.70

MoM -2.6 -4.56 -4.31

YoY -0.5 8.59 7.69

84.70

0.04

0.72

-4.27

7.73

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 12, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.8 percent in yesterdays trading session on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency in the initial part of the trade. Japans M2 Money Stock was at 2.7 percent in January from rise of 2.6 percent in December. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 94.42 and closed at 94.30 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of Money Stock data coming on a favorable note along with expectations of Consumer Confidence to come on a positive note. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 12, 2013 Support 57.60/57.35 Resistance 58.20/58.60
Source: Telequote

as on February 11, 2013 Last 94.3 0.5729 57.86 57.87 Prev day 1.8 -0.88 -0.54 -0.54 WoW 2.1 -0.90 0.31 0.32 MoM 5.4 -6.88 -6.48 -6.47 YoY 21.4 -9.89 -9.40 -9.38

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on February 12, 2013

Indicator Bank Holiday RICS House Price Balance ECOFIN Meetings CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y BOE Inflation Letter Mortgage Delinquencies ECB President Draghi Speaks FOMC Member George Speaks Country China UK Euro UK UK UK UK US Euro US Time (IST) All Day 5:31am All Day 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:00pm Tentative 12th 14th 9:00pm 10:00pm Actual -4% Forecast 0% 2.8% 0.8% 3.2% Previous -1% 2.7% -0.2% 3.1% 7.40% Impact Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium High Medium

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