Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 13, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 13, 2013

Highlights
Indias industrial production declined by 0.6 percent in December. US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $2.9 billion in January. UKs CPI remained unchanged at 2.7 percent in the last month. Asian markets are trading higher on the back of better earnings from Commonwealth Bank of Australia, rise in Japans Tertiary Industry Activity along with increase in Corporate Goods Price Index. US National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Index rose by 0.9 points to 88.9-mark in January from earlier rise of 88level in December. Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $2.9 billion in January as against a deficit of $1.2 billion in December. Indias industrial production declined by 0.6 percent in December as against a previous fall of 0.1 percent a month ago. Manufacturing output declined by 0.7 percent in December from rise of 0.3 percent in prior month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA** NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5922.5 19561.0 14018.7 1519.4 16644.5 1945.8 58497.8 11369.1 97.51 1648.70 3100.40 8241.25 101.82 -0.1 Prev. day 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 -0.3 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.5

as on February 12, 2013 WoW -0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.5 -0.4 0.4 -1.6 -0.1 0.9 -1.4 -2.7 -0.6 0.4 -0.2 MoM -2.2 -2.1 3.6 3.2 -5.4 -1.9 -5.8 4.2 4.5 -2.1 -1.6 5.0 YoY 9.9 10.1 8.9 13.2 1.7 0.1 -11.0 26.3 -3.4 -4.3 -8.0 -2.5 -1.9

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent yesterday on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that, statement from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that Spain is on proper bank aid program and showing signs of positivity also exerted downside pressure on the DX. Additionally, US equities also traded on a positive note which also acted as a negative factor for the currency. It touched an intra-day low of 79.99 and closed at 80.16 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters th (** Prices as on 8 February 2013 as markets closed on account of holidays)

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.16 53.78 54.03 54.02 Prev. day -0.3 0.3 0.08 0.07

as on February 12, 2013 WoW 0.8 -1.4 1.28 1.26 MoM 0.4 1.5 -1.67 -1.68 YoY 1.4 -8.6 8.83 8.81

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated in the last hour of the trading on the back of selling of dollars from the exporters coupled with upbeat domestic market sentiments. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of unexpected decline in countrys industrial production and manufacturing output. Additionally, dollar demand from oil firms and importers also exerted downside pressure on the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 53.37 and closed at 53.78 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.19,723.60 crores ($3,703.17 million) as on 12th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.41,782.60 crores ($7,762.50 million) till 12th February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of selling of dollars from exporters, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of dollar demand from oil companies and importers.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for February 13, 2013 Support 53.90/53.70 Resistance 54.15/54.30

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 13, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi statement that Spain is on proper bank aid program and showing signs of positive results. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3475 and closed at 1.3453 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of European industrial production expected to come on a positive. Further upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 72.40/72.20 72.85/73.10 valid for February 13, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3453 72.37 72.66 72.7 Prev. day 0.4 -0.1 0.64 0.64

as on February 12, 2013 WoW -0.9 -0.6 0.46 0.46 MoM 1.1 0.6 -0.22 -0.23 10.46 10.45 YoY 2.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated marginally around 0.03 percent yesterday taking cues from Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 2.7 percent in the month of January. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input was at 1.3 percent in the last month. Retail Price Index (RPI) increased by 3.3 percent in January as against a rise of 3.1 percent in December. Core CPI was at 2.3 percent in January from rise of 2.4 percent a month ago. House Price Index (HPI) increased to 3.3 percent in December as compared to earlier rise of 2.2 percent in prior month. PPI Output gained by 0.2 percent in last month with respect to decline of 0.1 percent in December. The Conference Board (CB) Leading Index was at 0.1 percent in December as against a rise of 0.2 percent in prior month. Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.567 and closed at 1.5662 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 13, 2013 Support 84.05/83.80 Resistance 84.50/84.70
Source: Telequote Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5662 84.416 84.24 Prev. day 0.03 -0.08 -0.50

as on February 12, 2013

WoW 0.0 1.42 0.24

MoM -2.5 -4.64 -4.79

YoY -0.7 8.51 7.15

84.25

-0.53

0.25

-4.77

7.16

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 13, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Tertiary Industry Activity rose by 1.4 percent in December as against a decline of 0.4 percent a month ago. (CGPI) declined by 0.2 percent in January from earlier fall of 0.7 percent in December. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 92.96 and closed at 93.46 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of Tertiary Industry Activity coupled with Corporate Goods Price Index coming on a favorable note. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 13, 2013 Support 57.15/57.0 Resistance
Source: Telequote

as on February 12, 2013 Last 93.46 0.5771 57.33 57.36 Prev day -0.9 0.73 -0.92 -0.89 WoW -0.2 1.64 0.13 0.19 MoM 5.3 -6.19 -7.34 -7.30 YoY 20.5 -9.23 -10.23 -10.19

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

57.60/57.90

Economic Indicators to be released on February 13, 2013

Indicator Federal Budget Balance Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Bank Holiday Industrial Production m/m BOE Gov King Speaks BOE Inflation Report Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m Mortgage Delinquencies Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Bullard Speaks 10-y Bond Auction Country US Japan China Euro UK UK US US US US US US Euro US Time (IST) 12:30am 5:20am All Day 3:30pm 4:00pm 4:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm 13 14
th th

Actual 2.9B 1.4% -

Forecast -4.6B 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 2.4M -

Previous -0.3B -0.4% -0.3% 0.3% 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% 7.40% 2.6M 1.86/2.8

Impact Medium Medium Medium High High High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

9:00pm 9:40pm 11:30pm

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