Lesson 11-8 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

Objectives: Find the probability of two or more independent events all occurring. Find the probability of two or more dependent events all occurring Find conditional probabilities

A. Independent and Dependent Events

The probability of consecutive events depends on whether the first event affects the second. Two events A and B are independent if the fact that A occurs has no effect on the probability of B occurring. Two events A and B are dependent if the outcome of A has some effect on the probability of B occurring. Examples of dependent events could be: Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a second card. Parking in a no-parking zone and getting a parking ticket.

An example of independent events could be: Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second die and getting a 3.

B. Multiplication Rules
When two events A and B are independent, the probability of both occurring is When two events A and B are dependent, the probability of both occurring is

(A d d t y )i h s ( ) A Po ( B r g c v e r a a P P Pnu ( B(Ahe A ( Blc a A a tr) n ) ) Ba d n ad ) PP e

When we are interested in finding the probability of consecutive events that are dependent, we can still use the multiplication rule, but with a minor modification.

Lesson 11-8 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

1. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting heads on the coin and a 4 on the die.

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2. As part of a psychology experiment on perception and memory, colored balls are picked from an urn. The urn contains three red balls, two green balls, and five white balls. A ball is selected and its color is noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color is noted. Find the probability of each of these. Video (a) Selecting two green balls.

(b) Selecting a green ball and then a white ball.

(c) Selecting a red ball and then a green ball.

Lesson 11-8 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

3. Three cards are drawn from a deck. After each card is drawn, its denomination and suit are noted and it is replaced before the next card is drawn. Find the probability of getting Video (a) Three kings.

(b) Three clubs.

4. According to a Gallup Poll in 2007, 47 percent of all parents in America with children under 18 feel frequent stress. If three parents are chosen randomly, find the probability that all three will say they feel frequent stress.

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5. An appliance store gets a shipment of 25 plasma TVs, and 3 of them are defective. If two of the TVs are chosen at random, find the probability that both are defective. (The first TV is not replaced after its tested.) Video

Lesson 11-8 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

6. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of Video (a) Getting three jacks.

(b) Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order.

(c) Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order.

(d) Getting three clubs.

C. Conditional Probability
We know that to find the probability of two dependent events occurring, its important to find the probability of the second event occurring given that the first has already occurred. We call this the conditional probability of event B occurring given that event A has occurred, and denote it P(B | A).

P n) ( aB A d P) (A B P () A
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Lesson 11-8 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

7. Suppose that your professor goes stark raving mad and chooses your final grade from A, B, C, D, F, or Incomplete totally at random. Find the probability of getting an A given that you get a letter grade higher than D.

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8. Hate crimes are defined to be crimes in which the victim is targeted because of one or more personal characteristics, such as race, religion, or sexual orientation. The table below lists the motivation for certain crimes as reported by the FBI for 2007.

(a) Find the probability that a hate crime was racially motivated given that it was a crime against persons.

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(b) Find the probability that a hate crime was against property given that it was motivated by the victims sexual orientation.

Lesson 11-8 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

9. A group of buses is rented for an away game, and they are numbered from 1-8. All students are randomly assigned to a bus. What is the probability that you get an evennumbered bus given that your bus number is less than 6? Video

10. In a group of eight Olympic track stars, five are hurdlers. If three are selected at random without replacement, find the probability that they are all hurdlers. Find the probability that none of them are hurdlers. Video

Lesson 11-8 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

11. Three red cards are numbered 1, 2, and 3. Three black cards are numbered 4, 5, and 6. The cards are placed in a box and one card is selected at random.

a. Find the probability that a number less than 5 was selected given that the card was a black card.

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b. Find the probability that a black card was selected given that the number on the card was an even number.