Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Centre seeks states' consensus on food bill
With centre planning to present Food Bill in the budget session of Parliament, food minister K V Thomas on Wednesday urged states to evolve a consensus on contentious issues like coverage and identification of beneficiaries. The Food Bill, which was introduced in the Lok Sabha in December 2011, aims to give legal right over subsidised foodgrains to two-third of the country's population. In its latest report, the parliamentary panel has suggested drastic changes in the bill, saying all the beneficiaries be provided 5 kg of wheat and rice per month at a uniform rate of Rs 2 and Rs 3 per kg respectively. The standing committee has made recommendations. However, those relating to coverage under PDS, identification of beneficiaries, entitlement to foodgrains and their prices are the principle ones, which require careful consideration. There are divergent views on each of these issues, Thomas said. (Source: Financial Chronicle)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Feb 13, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19608 5933 53.83 97.01 1644

0.24 0.18 0.06 -0.51 -0.27

-0.16 -0.44 1.25 0.40 -2.00

-1.50 -1.51 -1.28 3.05 -1.48

10.33 10.07 9.51 -3.86 -4.57

.Source: Reuters

Court stays new rules curbing groundnut exports

The Madras High Court has stayed an order issued by the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Authority (Apeda) to regulate export of groundnut and its products for controlling aflatoxin, a fungus that makes grains powdery. The stay was issued after a Chennai-based exporter Agrocrops Exim Ltd moved the court against the order, charging Apeda colluding with the Indian Oilseed and Produce Export Promotion Council to favour the council members. In a petition filed earlier this month, Agrocrops, which has won the best exporter award for groundnut exports from the APEDA, said that the order was not in accordance with a notification issued by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT).
(Source: Business Line)

Foodmin Move to Cut Wheat Prices Rejected

The CCEA on Wednesday turned down the food ministry's proposal to cut wheat prices sold under the open market sales scheme to biscuit makers, flour millers and other bulk buyers. According to sources, the finance ministry opposed moves to shell out any further subsidy for selling wheat to flour millers. The food ministry had proposed a cut in wheat prices in a bid to offload excess grains from government godowns. The government is in a hurry to create space in its silos for fresh procurement starting April this year. We had allocated 6.5 million tonne for OMSS. Of which, the government could find buyers for hardly 3 million tonne. For faster offtake, we proposed to lower the prices but the CCEA opposed the move, said a food ministry official. The ministry had proposed to sell the grain at a price covering the minimum support price of Rs 1,285 a quintal plus freight charges for supplying from Food Corporation of India godowns at Ludhiana. This would have lowered the price by at least Rs. 2 a kg. At present, prices vary between Rs. 1,404 and Rs. 1,550 a quintal depending on the extent of state levies. (Source: Economic Times)

Bearish global wheat market spells trouble in pruning Food Corps stocks
The bearish trend in global wheat prices, as reflected in the recent MMTC bids, may spell more trouble for the Government, which is struggling to handle the huge stocks with the Food Corporation of India. Having already permitted 4.5 million tonnes (mt) to be shipped out of public godowns, the Government is aiming to allow exports of another 5 mt mainly through private trade with a view to creating storage space for new crop that starts arriving from April. This years wheat crop is estimated to be as large as last years record 95 mt. (Source: Business Line)

Cabinet extends open market sale deadline forwheat

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs extended the tenure of the open market sale scheme for wheat by a month. Traders now have time till March 31, to purchase wheat from state- run warehouses. The CCEA, however, did not take any decision on reducing the price of the grain. The food and agriculture ministries wanted to reduce the price of wheat sold through OMSS to enable faster liquidation of grains stored in staterun warehouses. However, the finance ministry opposed it saying it would further inflate the subsidy bill. (Source: Business Standard)

Paddy crops in Kuttanad hit by salinity, drought

Seepage of saline water into paddyfields, coupled with the prevailing drought conditions, is threatening paddy crop in around 5,000 ha in Kuttanad, the granary of Kerala. Paddy and other crops in mid and high lands have also been affected. The State Government is understood to have estimated the total crop loss at Rs 729 crore. Total area affected is estimated at 1,70,025.5 acres (68,011 ha) in the State and of it the maximum area in which crop is badly hit is at 83,265 acres (33,306 ha) in Alappuzha district, which includes Kuttanad. (Source: Agriwatch)

Coverage under proposed food Bill unacceptable

State governments are raising objections about the coverage under the proposed Food Security Bill, saying that covering 75 per cent of the rural population and 50 per cent of urban as advocated by both the draft Bill and the Standing Committee of Parliament is unacceptable. The Centre is saying that the proposed food Bill will ensure food for all. But in reality, this is not the case, West Bengal Food Minister Jyotipriya Mullick said. He said the Centre should instead cover all sections of the population under the Bill and there should not be any provision for cash transfers under the Bill. Mullick and representatives from 19 states and Union territories were in the capital for a two- day consultation to evolve a consensus on recommendations of the parliamentary panel that suggested drastic changes in the proposed food Bill, which aims to give legal rights over subsidised foodgrains to two- thirds of the population. Punjab said states should have the power to determine the number of people who would fall under the purview of the Bill. Tamil Nadu sought complete exemption from implementation of the Bill, saying it lacked clarity, while Bihar, Odisha, Kerala and Gujarat suggested the Centre first modernise the PDS before rushing to implement it. (Source: Business Standard)

Bumper potato yield likely this year in Deesa town

Deesa town in Banaskantha district in Gujarat is likely to get a bumper crop of potato this year, association of potato growers said here. Deesa, which is one of the major hubs of potato production and trade in the country, is witnessing a bumper crop of potato this year, Ganpatbhai Mali, president of Banaskantha District Potato-growers Association said. Potato is being cultivated on about 35,000 hectares of land as against 33,000 hectares last year Banaskantha. Favourable climatic conditions in Banaskantha are helping the crop, he said. The production of potatoes in Deesa, which was around 1.75 crore bags last year, is likely to touch 2 crore bags this year, he added. (Source: Business Line)

Brazil mills likely to prefer ethanol production over sugar for 2013-14 season
Brazilian mills might increase the ratio for producing ethanol over sugar in the coming season starting from April 2013 as raw sugar prices (18.08 cents a pound) are trading below ethanol prices (18.11 cents a pound) which encourage the millers to go for ethanol production rather than sugar production. (Source: Agriwatch)

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures gained for the second straight session on bargain buying. However, supplies are increasing in the domestic markets amid start to harvesting, thus capping sharp upside in the prices. Spot as well as futures settled 0.97% and 0.58% higher on Wednesday. Ministry of Agriculture in its second advance estimates, have pegged, bumper chana output for 2012-13 season at 8.57 mn tn, up 11% from 2011-12 final estimates of 7.7 mn tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3600 3449 Prev day 0.97 0.58

as on Feb 13, 2013 % change WoW MoM 4.30 -9.60 1.83 -14.61 YoY 1.69 -3.98

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Pulses Sowing 2012-13

Technical Chart - Chana
Total pulses acreage as on 08 Feb 2013 stood at 148 lakh ha, up by 0.5% yoy. Chana sowing is 5.4% higher at 94.78 lakh ha compared to previous year. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha, In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 11.12 lakh ha vs normal area of 10.6 lakh ha. While in AP it is up at 7.27 lakh ha, up by 28%. Compared to previous year. (Source: State farm dept)
NCDEX April contract

Demand supply fundamentals

According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates. on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. India needs imports as its domestic production is insufficient to meet the rising demand. The countrys import bill on pulses stood at $1.83 billion in 2011-12. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Feb 14, 2013 Resistance 3475-3500

3400-3430

Trade Scenario
In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Outlook
Chana Futures may open higher extending the gains of the previous session. However, no major upside is expected as the agriculture ministry has estimated bumper chana output for 2012-13 season. Also arrivals shall gain momentum in the coming days and is expected to increase the supplies in the markets. Also, higher output of Chana in other producing countries like Australia and Canada is expected to support the weak market sentiments.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar March contract opened lower on profit taking but recovered from lower levels and settled unchanged. Prices had gained in the past few on reports that drought may trim domestic sugar production. Also, hopes of partial decontrol of sugar industry supported an upside in the prices. Further, traders expect demand to improve in the coming summer months. However, sharp gains are capped on account of higher production and availability in the domestic markets and comparatively lower demand amid winter season. Food minister KV Thomas on Thursday said the government is likely to take a decision on decontrolling the sugar industry before the Budget. Food ministry has proposed dispensing with the regulatory release mechanism and abolishing the levy system. India has fixed FRP (Fair and Remunerative Price), the price sugar mills must pay to cane growers at 210 rupees per 100 kg in the 2013/14 year, compared to current years 170 per qtl. Higher floor price increases the cost of production as the raw material cost constitute the major part of cost of production of sugar. This should actually increase the prices of sugar. Raw sugar futures on ICE as well as Liffe white sugar traded on a positive note on account of short coverings and settled 2.87% and 0.83% higher on Wednesday. A global surplus situation has led the prices to a sharp decline and currently they are trading around their 2 year lows.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3194

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.61 -0.55 MoM -1.72 YoY 8.19

Rs/qtl

3072

0.03

-0.16

-4.74

6.59

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 498 405.11

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 2.87 0.83 1.08 0.22 MoM -1.91 -3.54 YoY -19.25 -25.56

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX March contract

Domestic Production and Exports

Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, Indian 13.7 mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3 percent a year ago period. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

The USDA on Friday boosted its domestic sugar supply forecast in the 2012/13 marketing year, projecting record production. U.S. sugar production in the current marketing year is pegged at 9.22 million short tons, up from last month's estimate at 9.07 million tons. If the forecast is realized, it will be a record high, exceeding the record 9.032 million short tons harvested in the United States in 1999/2000. In the international markets, ICE Raw sugar fell to their lowest level since August 2010 to 18.46 cents in the last week expecting third consecutive year of global surplus in 2012-13. A third consecutive global sugar surplus will trim prices as supply is forecast to exceed demand by more than 8 million tonnes in the crop year to September 2013. Markets would need weather scares or bullish ethanol policy changes in Brazil to encourage new longs. Otherwise, prices will remain depressed. Brazil's main center-south cane crop will produce between 580 million and 590 million tonnes of sugar cane in 2013/14. Brazil will likely favor ethanol production over sugar from the 2013/14 cane crop.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Mar NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Feb 14, 2013 Resistance 3110-3120

3080-3090

Outlook
Sugar prices may consolidate at the current levels as markets may adopt a wait and watch policy expecting government to take decision levy sugar mechanism, one of the major reforms of sugar decontrol. The hike in cane price and thereby increase in sugar production cost may also support prices as this may force government to take some measures to increase sugar prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures traded on a positive note on account of
short coverings as the prices declined sharply over the last few sessions after the USDA monthly crop report released on Friday pegged higher global ending stocks. February Futures settled 0.08%. Oil meal exports rose by almost 40 per cent to 7.68 lakh tonnes in January this year, industry body Solvent Extractors Association of India said. The export of oil meals, however declined by 18 per cent to 36.79 lakh tonnes in the first 10 months of this fiscal compared to 44.85 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. The country exported 25.36 lakh tn soybean meal in first 10 months compared to 30.82 lakh tn in the same period last year which showing a decline of 17.72%. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.
Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3321 3254 732.3 724.3

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change Prev day -0.03 -0.08 0.12 -0.54 WoW -0.87 -1.69 -1.08 -0.12 MoM 3.46 2.13 -0.91 -1.29 YoY 32.05 28.90 4.89 4.26

Source: Reuters

as on Feb 13, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMar'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMar'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1423 51.66 Prev day 0.16 1.10 WoW -4.34 -1.51 MoM -2.52 2.97
Source: Reuters

YoY 12.85 -3.17

International Markets
CBOT Soybean traded marginally higher on account of short coverings and settled 0.16% higher on Wednesday. USDA has raised its forecast of global 2012/13 soybean ending stocks above 60 mn tns, up from 59.46 mn in January. Upward revision in Brazils soy output is offset by downward revision in the Argentina production. However, persistent dry, hot weather in much of Argentina is hurting 2012/13 crops as they enter crucial growth stages, and rains are needed to safeguard potential yields, the countrys agriculture ministry said last week. Thus output may be revised down further. China, the world's largest soy buyer, imported 4.78 million tonnes of soybeans in January, down 18.8 percent from 5.89 million tonnes in December

Crude Palm Oil

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.41 -1.46 -2.04 -0.76

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Feb '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Feb '13 Futures

Last 2445 446.2

MoM 5.39 4.15

YoY -22.63 -14.68

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil March contract and MCX CPO Feb
settled 1.25% and 1.46% lower yesterday taking cues from weak Malaysian palm oil board data which pegged exports 1.6% lower in January. According to Malaysian palm oil Board data released today, Jan palm oil output down by 10% from Dec, End stocks down 1.9% and exports down 1.6% and so prices are down today. However, 1-10 Feb Malaysian exports rose 25%. If the trend continues, CPO prices may witness an upside in the coming days.

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3750 3414 Prev day 0.00 -0.12

as on Feb 13, 2013 WoW -10.50 -0.96 MoM -10.93 -19.02

Source: Reuters

YoY 12.11 1.37

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX March contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures settled 0.12% lower on

Wednesday on account of higher output expectations have led to a sharp decline in the prices over the last couple of days. Mustard seed sowing is now up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Arrivals are expected to commence in February and thus no major upside in the prices is seen if weather condition improve in the coming days. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean complex may remain under downside pressure as USDA monthly crop report raised its forecast of ending stocks. Mustard seed is expected to trade higher on account of short coverings however; higher output expectations may cap sharp upside. CPO is expected to open higher tracking positive BMD prices. However, prices may decline from higher levels during the intraday.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Mar NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Mar Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Feb Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Feb 14, 2013 Support 688-692 3120-3145 3365-3390 442-444 Resistance 701-707 3210-3250 3430-3450 450-453

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper March Futures traded on a positive note on account of low stocks, thin supplies and delayed harvesting due to lack of skilled laborers. Harvesting of the fresh crop is going in and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Good winter demand also supported the prices. Some improvement in the arrivals of the fresh crop led to a decline in the prices earlier last week. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot as well as Futures settled 0.73% and 0.14% higher on Wednesday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,000/tn(C&F Europe). Vietnams 550 GL is quoted at $6,500/tn, Malaysia and Indonesia Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil black pepper is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 40672 39640 % Change Prev day 0.73 0.70

as on Feb 13, 2013 WoW 0.49 1.73 MoM 5.69 10.02 YoY 31.60 36.17

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX March contract

Exports and Imports

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt, lower by 12% as compared to 1,15,780 mt in the same period last year. Total exports in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,10,000 tonnes. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 26% during January-September 2012 period to 41,923 tn as compared to 52,489 tn in the same period previous year. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Mar Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Feb 14, 2013 Support 36050-36300 Resistance 36720-36910

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 14 tonnes while off takes were reported at 14 tonnes on Wednesday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to continue to trade higher today on account of low stocks coupled with thin arrivals. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks anticipating better prices in the coming days may also support prices at lower levels. However, any improvement in arrivals will cap sharp upside.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a mixed note yesterday. Commencement of arrivals of the new crop has led to a decline. The arrivals of new crop is around 2,000 bags/day and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Some export demand from Bangladesh was reported last week. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. Sowing is complete. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013 compared with 3.64 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot settled 0.53% higher while the Futures settled 0.36% lower yesterday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,975 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13776 13170 Prev day 0.53 -0.36

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change WoW -1.36 -2.35 MoM -3.94 -3.48 YoY -7.87 -7.99

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX March contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 3,500 tn on Wednesday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected around 40 lakh bags as against 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (55 kgs each). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 1.00 0.93

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera is expected to continue to trade on a mixed note. Prices may decline on the back of commencement of arrivals of the new crop. Higher sowing figures coupled with conducive weather in Gujarat may also pressurize prices. However, overseas demand at lower levels may support prices. Demand from domestic traders and millers may also support prices at lower levels. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5460 6308

WoW 0.91 -0.76

MoM -4.09 -4.97

YoY 10.31 23.06

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a positive note as good demand from local buyers has supported prices at lower levels. Prices have corrected from higher levels over the last couple of days due to higher carryover stocks. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1% and 0.93% higher on Wednesday.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 4,500 bags and 10,000 bags respectively on Wednesday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. There are reports that Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own MSP of Rs.10000/qtl. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note today with a positive bias. Lower output concerns and demand from stockists at lower levels is expected to support prices at lower levels. However, higher carryover stocks and weak overseas demand may pressurize prices at higher levels.
.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Feb 14, 2013

Support 13000-13100 6190-6250 Resistance 13250-13350 6370-6430

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas declined on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets. NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton settled 1.43% and 0.59% lower respectively on Wednesday. Cotton supplies from the new crop in the domestic markets until Jan. 20 fell were down at 134 lakh bales, from 144 lakh bales a year earlier. However, gap has narrowed down with increasing pace of arrivals. The Cotton Advisory Board, which met in Mumbai on Wednesday, has estimated cotton production this season (Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) will be 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in October at 334 lakh bales. Also, exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to 253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As on January 9 this year, nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports. ICE Cotton settled 1.21% lower on Wednesday on account higher certified stocks. Also lack of demand from China due to New Year holidays added to the downside. Prices have gained sharply late last week as USDA monthly report trimmed US stocks.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 894 16950

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.43 1.42 -0.59 1.80 MoM -2.45 1.80 YoY #N/A -4.94

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Feb Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 80.82 81.35

as on Feb 13, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.21 -1.10 0.00 0.00 MoM 7.02 0.00 YoY -12.63 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
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Global Cotton Updates

The U.S. government on Friday nudged higher its global cotton stockpile forecast for 2012/13 amid expectations that China, the world's largest textile market, will import even more fiber for its massive strategic supply. However, the government lowered US carryover by 300,000 bales, or 6 percent, to 4.5 million bales due to an increase of the same size in its export estimate to 12.5 million bales.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Feb contract

Outlook
Kapas prices may remain sideways with a negative bias during the intraday. Sufficient supplies in the domestic markets and lower export demand expectations may pressurize prices. Also, international prices which had gained sharply in the last two weeks are due for correction amid rising certified stocks, and Chinese lunar New Year approaching.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Feb Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Feb 14, 2013 Support 875-890 16890-16980 Resistance 916-930 17150-17220

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