Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104view:

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
EU current account recorded a surplus of 13.9 billion Euros in December 2012 as against 15.9B Euros in November 2012. Asian markets are trading higher on the back of better than expected sales and profits forecasts made the shares of Bridgestone Corp. to gain most. Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note in the yesterdays as the US markets were closed due to the Presidents Day holiday which resulted in quite trading. The currency touched an intra-day high of 80.75 and

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.25 Prev day 0.1

as on 18 February, 2013 w-o-w -0.6 m-o-m 0.7 y-o-y -9.2

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3351

-0.1

-0.4

0.5

1.6

Dollar Index NIFTY

80.58

0.0

0.2

0.9

1.4

closed at 80.74 on Monday.

5898.2 0.2 0.0 -1.7 6.8

The Indian Rupee traded flat note and appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. Continued foreign institutional inflows appreciated the currency. Additionally, currency appreciated on the back of selling of dollars by the custodian banks. The gains in the rupee were however restricted by dollar demand from the oil importers. The currency touched an intra-day low high of 54.14 and closed at 54.25 on Monday.

SENSEX

19501.1

0.2

0.2

-1.6

7.4

DJIA*

13981.76

0.1

-0.1

2.4

8.4

S&P*

1519.8

-0.1

0.1

3.2

13.2

For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 21,428.10crores ($ 4,019.48million) as on 18th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 43,487.10 crores ($ 8,078.80million) till 18th February 2013.

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 0.1 percent yesterday after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the weak economic indicators are weighing on the growth of the Euro zone. He also said that the inflation would moderate in the near term which stood at 2.0 percent January. However, he ruled out the use of currency tool to boost the economic growth of the nation. Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3321 and closed at 1.3351 against dollar on Monday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices ended on a flat note. Gold prices gained in the early part of the trade due to buying at lower levels and on hopes of rise in demand after the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. However, market participation was lower as the US markets remained closed yesterday on the occasion of President Day. Strength in the DX in the early part of the trade restricted rise in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $ 1,618.5/oz and closed at $ 1,609.55/ounce on Monday. On the MCX, Gold April contract ended 0.1 percent lower taking cues from trend in the spot gold prices. Appreciation in the rupee also pulled the gold prices lower. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.30, 176/10 gms on Monday after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 30,148/ 10gms. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1609.6 Prev. day 0.0 as on 18 February, 2013 WoW -2.4 MoM -4.1 YoY -6.9

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (April13) MCX Gold (April13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

29730.0

-1.1

-3.4

-2.9

7.4

1610.8

-0.1

-2.5

-3.9

-6.0

$/oz

1608.8

-1.6

-3.4

-4.4

-6.8

Rs /10 gms

30176.0

-0.1

-1.5

-2.3

7.4

Silver
Spot silver gained 0.6 percent on Monday. Silver prices gained taking cues from strength in the spot gold prices in the early part of the trade. Short coverings by the market participants after sharp fall in the last week also pushed prices upwards. Weakness in the base metals pack however, capped gains in the silver prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $ 30.15/oz and closed at $ 29.94 per oz on Monday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 0.2 percent and closed at Rs. 56,215/kg on Monday and touched a intra-day high of Rs. 56,415/ kg. Silver prices on MCX traced strength of spot silver prices. Appreciation in the Indian rupee in the later part of the day however, capped gains in the silver prices on MCX. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Mar13) MCX Silver (Mar13)
Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

as on 18 February, 2013 WoW -3.4 -2.0 MoM -4.7 -3.0 YoY -10.7 2.6

Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg

Last 29.9 57500.0

Prev day 0.6 0.2

$/oz $/ oz

3000.0 29.83 -1.7

-0.6

-3.7 -5.0 -5.3

-3.9

-9.6 -10.6

Rs / kg

56215.0
th

0.2

-2.5

-5.9

0.2

Note: *Prices ason February 15 2013

Outlook
In the intra-day we expect gold prices to trade with a bearish note taking cues from strength in the DX along with reduced safe haven buying taking cues from positive data from the US and China in the last week. However, buying might be initiated at lower levels after sharp fall in the prices in the last week. In the domestic market prices are expected to trace spot gold prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Mar13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for February 19, 2013 Support 1611/1607 30120/30020 30.0/29.90 56000/55800 Resistance 1622/1627 30300/30400 30.35/30.60 56700/57100

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
International markets remained closed due to holiday in US on the occasion of President Day in yesterdays session. MCX crude oil prices declined by 0.3 percent on the back of decline in Saudi Arabias exports which is already in ample supply. Additionally, appreciation in the Indian Rupee also exerted downside pressure on the crude oil prices. Oil prices touched an intra-day low of Rs. 5,172/bbl and closed at Rs.5,185/bbl in yesterdays trading session. News: As per the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia exports fell to 7.06 million barrels a day in December, least since September 2011. Exports declined by 1.3 percent in December when compared to the month of November. Production also dropped 4.8 percent to 9.03 million barrels a day in the month of December. The country burned around 303,000 barrels a day at power plants in December which is lowest in last 10 months and it is 29 percent less when compared to a year ago. The OPEC report even stated that Venezuela increased its crude exports by 19 percent to 1.97 million barrels a day in December, which is at the highest level since July 2008. Nigeria also increased its shipments by 14 percent to 2.29 million barrels a day in the month of December. Even, Angola raised its exports by 5.6 percent to 1.7 million barrels a day during the same period. Kuwaits exports remained unchanged at 2.06 million, while Algerias consignments fell by 5.5 percent to 685,000 barrels a day for the month of December. Outlook In todays session, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower taking cues from decline in the exports by the Saudi Arabia indicating reduced demand along with strength in the DX. Contraction in the Euro zone GDP is also expected to weigh on the prices. In the domestic market prices are expected to take cues from the international crude oil prices. Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Feb 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for February 19, 2013

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude *(March13 ) ICE Brent Crude (March13) MCX Crude (Feb 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last #N/A 118.6 95.9 Prev. day #N/A 0.0 -1.5 WoW #N/A -0.8 0.1

as on 18 February, 2013 MoM #N/A 6.1 2.8 YoY #N/A -3.2 -5.8

$/bbl

117.4

-0.2

-0.6

6.1

-2.3

Rs/bbl

5185.0
th

-0.3

-0.8

0.7

#N/A

Source: Reuters Note: *Prices as on February 15 2013

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Feb 13)

as on 18 February, 2013

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.141 172.9

Prev. day -0.38 0.52

WoW -4.21 -2.43

MoM -11.92 -9.67

YoY 17.03 29.13

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Support 95.20/94.45 5160/5120

Resistance 96.30/97.05 5220/5260

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

Base Metals

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Feb13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum Rs /kg 113.5 -2.0 1.2 2.4 7.0 $/tonne 2123.0 -1.9 1.0 3.6 -2.4 Rs/kg 442.4 -1.3 -0.4 0.9 6.6 $/tonne Last 8125.3 Prev. day -1.4 as on 18 February, 2013 WoW -0.9 MoM 2.2 YoY -2.9

Base metal prices ended on a negative note in yesterdays session. The fall in the metal prices was due to weak economic growth in the Euro region coupled with decline in the US industrial output. The Chinese retail sales gained at a slower pace during the last weeks Lunar New Year. Strength in the DX also pushed prices downwards. Increase in the LME inventories also restricted prices to move upwards. Appreciation in the Indian rupee led to the fall in the MCX base metal prices.

Copper
Copper prices continued to extend losses of the previous day and fell 1.4 percent down on Monday. Weak global market sentiments created after observing unfavourable growth in the Euro zone region along with fall in the industrial output in US in the last week weighed on the metal prices in yesterdays session. Market participation was also subdued in the international market on account of President Day holiday in the US. Expectation of demand from the Chinese buyers after the Lunar New Year holidays was also shadowed. LME copper inventories gained 0.65 percent and stood at 404,300 tonnes as against 401,675 tonnes on February 15th, 2013. Copper prices on LME touched an intra-day low of $ 8,107.5 per tonne and closed at $ 8125.25 per tonne on Monday. In the domestic markets, MCX copper fell 1.4 percent and closed at Rs. 442.35 per kg on Monday. Appreciation in rupee in the later part of the day also exerted downside pressure on the copper prices on MCX. Outlook In the intra-day we expect base metal prices to trade with an upward bias on account of hopes of revival in demand from China the major consumer of the base metals after the holidays. However, strength in the DX might cap gains in the base metals pack. In the domestic market, MCX prices may track international prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Feb13 MCX Zinc Feb 13 MCX Lead Feb 13 MCX Aluminum Feb13 MCX Nickel Feb 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for February 19, 2013 Support 440/437 115.2/114.5 128.5/127.5 112.8/112 962/955 Resistance 445/448 117/117/.9 130.5/131.4 114.2/115 977/985

(Feb13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Feb13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead Feb13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Feb13)
Source: Reuters

$/tonne

17940.0

-2.1

-1.6

3.1

-10.3

Rs /kg

970.0

-2.5

-1.2

1.8

-2.0

$/tonne

2399.5

-1.8

0.4

5.7

18.1

Rs /kg

129.7

-2.0

0.7

4.5

29.8

$/tonne

2155.0

-1.0

-1.6

8.5

8.5

Rs /kg

116.1

-1.1

-1.1

7.5

18.0

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 18th February 404300 5156850 153270 1191050 288425 15th February 401675 5145150 153480 1193550 287150 Actual Change 2,625 11,700 -210 -2,500 1,275 (%) Change 0.65 0.23 -0.14 -0.21 0.44
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 19, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment Mortgage Delinquencies

Country Japan EU EU US

Time (IST) 5:20 am 3:30 pm 3:30 pm 19th-24th

Actual -

Forecast 35.3 35.5

Previous 14.8B 31.5 31.2 7.40%

Impact Medium High Medium Medium

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