Incite!

Sales: Sales Portfolio Forecasting System

Improve Your Revenue with Greater Accuracy in Sales Forecasts

www.incitedecisiontech.com rdbrown@incitedecisiontech.com 678.947.5997

Sales forecasts are notoriously biased. Why?

hRp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Double-alaskan-rainbow.jpg#lelinks

Unwarranted op:mism Sand bagging Sense of en:tlement False precision versus accuracy Memorable or extreme events Availability of irrelevant informa:on Anchoring
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These effects are most noticeable in firms with

Long, complex sales cycles Low frequency, high value sales LiRle historical informa:on on which to base top-down forecasts Examples: professional services, capital equipment rms, engineering, architecture, construc:on, IT development, etc.
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How does this affect your business?

You fail to priori:ze the best opportuni:es eec:vely, leading to delay or failure to close Income crunches and cash shortages take you by surprise Produc:on needs misalign with delivery commitments The needs of your market get obscured by false narra:ves, preven:ng eec:ve growth or expansion

Copyright 2013 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved

Our Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System addresses these problems

Avoid inherent biases in single point es:mates Develop an accurate picture of when revenues will most likely occur & when shoraalls are imminent Reallocate resources to increase the likelihood of closing valuable opportuni:es sooner Know which opportuni:es to abandon Become a learning organiza:on that improves forecasts & eciency over :me
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The Four Pillars of the System

Calibra'on Inputs are debiased & put in proper form for mathema:cal simula:on. Simula'on Monte Carlo simula:on operates on all inputs in a sta:s:cally consistent manner for useful interpreta:on. Interpreta'on Meaningful results are returned in clear, graphical displays that permit important insights. Communica'on Insights translate into ac:on with the proper resources & support coaching and incen:ve programs
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Removing bias from sales estimates starts with effective calibration

Exploratory dialog guides an es:mate for a range of assump:ons for each of eight inputs, not just single point values. Input Calibra:on: Units Sold: acct 1
3 8 12 15.3 27 43

Visual feedback helps to calibrate assump:ons for reasonableness. Should you now widen or narrow your es:mate?

1%

10%

50% Avg

90%

99%

Copyright 2013 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved

Get an accurate picture of when you will likely see revenue occur
Peaks indicate when receipts most likely occur. Valleys indicate distribu:on of income concerns.

Copyright 2013 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved

Get an accurate picture of where revenue crunches & trends occur

Copyright 2013 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved

Understand where to make important tradeoffs to improve closure of valuable opportunities

Could you reallocate resources to improve the likelihood of more valuable awards?

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Understand the efficient priority of opportunities

What if you completely reallocated resources from pursuing these low marginal contribu:on opportuni:es?

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Understand the gap between total potential income and risk adjusted income
Poten:al
Gap = $6.6M

Risked

The gap represents the Value of Control for insuring that all opportuni:es result in Award.
$10M $12M $14M $16M $18M $20M

$0

$2M

$4M

$6M

$8M

Revenue [$]
Percen:le Legend

1%

10% 50% Avg

90%

99%

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Learn from your history to improve

Obtain insights into sales reps tendency toward accuracy Implement coaching and incen:ve programs to improve accuracy Observe how sales reps improve accuracy over :me
Trailing Quarter Accuracy: Units Sold: Sales Rep 1

10% 40% 40% 10%

25% 30% 40% 5%

30% 40% 25% 5%

50% 25% 15% 10%

Trailing 1Q

Trailing 2Q

Trailing 3Q

Trailing 4Q
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Copyright 2013 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved

Should your sales organization use our Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System?
Is your company a professional services, capital equipment, engineering, architecture, construc:on, or IT development rm? Do you experience long, complex sales cycles with low frequency, high value sales? Do you possess liRle historical informa:on on which to base top-down forecasts? Do you maintain a progressive autude toward advanced sales processes or want to grow in that direc:on?

Contact us today to see a live demo and learn more!

www.incitedecisiontech.com rdbrown@incitedecisiontech.com 678.947.5997

Copyright 2013 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved

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