Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

Highlights
US Building Permits increased by 0.93 million in January. UKs Unemployment Rate rose by 7.8 percent in December. US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2 percent in last month. European Consumer Confidence was at -24-mark in January Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of statement from US Federal Reserve that central bank may slow or stop buying assets sooner than expectations. US Building Permits was at 0.93 million in January as against a rise of 0.91 million in December. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2 percent in last month from earlier decline of 0.2 percent in December. Core PPI was at 0.2 percent in January as compared to rise of 0.1 percent in prior month. Housing Starts declined to 0.89 million in January with respect to rise of 0.97 million in earlier month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5943.1 19642.8 13927.54 1512.0 16527.5 2024.6 58497.8 11468.3 94.46 1577.60 2861.50 7964.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.1 0.0 -0.8 -1.2 -0.8 2.0 0.2 0.8 -2.3 -1.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.0

as on February 20, 2013 WoW 0.2 0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -1.1 2.5 0.2 -0.1 -3.1 -4.1 -7.7 -3.3 0.1 0.2 MoM -1.8 -1.9 1.1 1.7 -6.8 2.2 -5.2 5.9 -0.8 -5.5 -11.7 1.5 YoY 6.0 7.4 7.4 11.1 -1.1 1.8 -11.5 21.2 -10.8 -10.2 -16.8 -5.8 -1.9

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated sharply by 0.8 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, statement from US Federal Reserve that central bank may slow or stop buying assets program sooner than expectations also acted as a positive factor for the DX. Further, US equities also traded on a negative note which also supported an upside in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 81.23 and closed at 81.16 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.16 54.07 54.18 54.18 Prev. day 0.8 0.1 -0.24 -0.25

as on February 20, 2013 WoW 1.2 -0.5 0.38 0.40 MoM 1.5 -0.7 0.60 0.60 YoY 2.1 -9.0 9.76 9.76

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated as a result of foreign funds buying rupees to participate in debt limit sale which is applicable to foreigners. India will auction around $12.3 billion of debt on Friday, which includes $10 billion of new government and corporate bonds. Additionally, upbeat domestic market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, less movement was observed in the markets on account of most state run banks were less operative due to strike. It touched an intra-day high of 54.015 and closed at 54.07 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.21,425.90 crores ($4,019.08 million) as on 20th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.43,484.90 crores ($8,078.40 million) till 20th February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, statement from US Federal Reserve of ending its bond buying program before than expectations will also add downside pressure on the currency.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for February 21, 2013 Support 54.05/53.90 Resistance 54.30/54.45

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.8 percent yesterday taking cues from European Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -24-mark in the month of January. French CPI declined by 0.5 percent in January from earlier rise of 0.3 percent in December. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at -0.5 percent in the month of January. Further, statement from US Federal Reserve of ending its bond buying plan before the expectations coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of German Producer Price Index (PPI) was at 0.8 percent in January as against a decline of 0.3 percent in December. The Euro touched an intraday low of 1.3269 and closed at 1.328 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, French, German and Euro Zone manufacturing and services PMI data is expected to come on a positive note which can cushion sharp fall or even reversal in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 72.35/72.15 72.80/73.10 valid for February 21, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.328 72.35 72.55 72.5 Prev. day -0.8 0.3 0.12 0.08

as on February 20, 2013 WoW -1.3 0.1 -0.24 -0.26 MoM -0.3 -1.4 0.84 0.83 11.89 11.87 YoY 0.3

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5233 82.341 82.90 Prev. day -1.23 -1.82 -1.34

as on February 20, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated sharply by 1.2 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by 7.8 percent in December from earlier rise of 7.7 percent a month ago. Average Earnings Index was at 1.4 percent in December as compared to 1.5 percent in prior month. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of Claimant Count Change declined by 12,500 in January as against a previous fall of 12,100 in December. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5191 and closed at 1.5233 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, public sector net borrowing data is expected to decline which will exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of industrial order expectations coming on a positive note. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 21, 2013 Support 82.55/82.15 Resistance

WoW -2.0 -1.50 -1.24

MoM -3.9 -3.43 -3.44

YoY -3.5 5.84 6.06

82.91

-1.32

-1.22

-3.42

6.05

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

83.55/84.0

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that, Industries Activity rose by 1.8 percent in December from previous decline of 0.4 percent a month ago which also supported an upside in the currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 93.11 and closed at 93.54 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 21, 2013 Support 57.75/57.50 Resistance 58.10/58.35 Last 93.54 0.5774 57.94 57.95 Prev day 0.0 -0.24 0.15 0.19 as on February 20, 2013 WoW 0.2 0.05 0.41 0.42 MoM 5.6 -3.23 -3.46 -3.44 YoY 17.4 -6.51 -7.19 -7.19

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on February 21, 2013

Indicator FOMC Meeting Minutes French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Public Sector Net Borrowing Spanish 10-y Bond Auction CBI Industrial Order Expectations Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims CPI m/m Flash Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Mortgage Delinquencies Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Country US Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK Euro UK US US US US US US US US US Time (IST) 12:30am 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 3:00pm Tentative 4:30pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 8:00pm 21 24
st th

Actual -

Forecast 43.9 44.5 50.4 55.5 48.4 49.2 -11.3B -16 0.2% 361K 0.1% 55.6 4.91M 0.7 1.9M -

Previous 42.9 43.6 49.8 55.7 47.9 48.6 13.2B 5.29/2.3 -20 0.1% 341K 0.0% 55.8 4.94M -5.8 7.40% 0.6M -

Impact High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium

9:30pm 11:00pm

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