GIO D C V O T O TR NG I H C KINH T TP.

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NGUY N T N THNH

NGHIN C U CC NHN T TC NG N C U TRC V N C A CC CNG TY NIM Y T T I VI T NAM

LU N VN TH C S KINH K

TP.H

CH MINH NM 2012

GIO D C V O T O TR NG I H C KINH T TP.HCM --------------

NGUY N T N THNH

NGHIN C U CC NHN T TC NG N C U TRC V N C A CC CNG TY NIM Y T T I VI T NAM

LU N VN TH C S KINH K

CHUYN NGNH: TI CHNH-NGN HNG M S : 62340201

NG I H NG D N:

PGS.TS. TR N TH THY LINH

TP.H

CH MINH NM 2012

L I CAM OAN

Ti xin cam oan lu n vn NGHIN C U CC NHN T

TC

NG

N C U TRC V N C A CC CNG TY NIM Y T T I VI T NAM l cng trnh nghin c u c a chnh tc gi , n i dung c c k t t qu trnh h c t p v k t qu nghin c u th c ti n trong th i gian quan, cc s li u c s d ng trong qu trnh nghin c u l trung th c v c ngu n g c trch d n r rng. Cc k t qu c a lu n vn cha t ng c cng b Th Thy Linh. Tc gi lu n vn b t c cng trnh nghin c u khoa h c no. Lu n vn c th c hi n d i s h ng d n khoa h c c a C PGS.TS. Tr n

NGUY N T N THNH

L I C M N
Chn thnh c m n Ban Gim hi u v Khoa o t o Sau v nghin c u trong su t th i gian qua. Chn thnh c m n cc Th y, C Tr ng tr ng. Chn thnh c m n C PSG.TS Tr n Th Thy Linh t n tnh h ng d n, c m n nh ng ki n ng gp qu bu v chn thnh c a C gip ti hon thnh lu n vn ny. Trn tr ng cm n! Tc gi lu n vn i h c Kinh t Thnh ph H Ch Minh nhi t tnh gi ng d y cho ti trong su t qu trnh tham gia h c t p t i i h c c a tr ng

i h c Kinh T Thnh ph H Ch Minh t o i u ki n thu n l i cho ti h c t p

NGUY N T N THNH

DANH M C B NG BI U Trang B ng 2.1 B ng 3.1 B ng 3.2 B ng 4.1 B ng 4.2 B ng 4.3 B ng 4.4 B ng 4.5 B ng 4.6 B ng 4.7 B ng 4.8 B ng 4.9 B ng 4.10 B ng 4.11 B ng 4.12 B ng 4.13 B ng 5.1 : Tm t t cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc v n theo l thuy t v th c nghi m ............................................................................................... 22 : Tm t t th ng k s cng ty, quan st theo ngnh t nm 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................... 27 : Tm t t cc gi thuy t nghin c u .................................................... 31 : Tm t t th ng k m t cc bi n ph thu c ...................................... 33 : Tm t t th ng k m t cc bi n : Tc : Tc : Tc : Tc : Tc : Tc ng cc bi n ng cc bi n ng cc bi n ng cc bi n ng cc bi n ng cc bi n cl p cl p cl p cl p cl p cl p c l p .......................................... 34 c l p ............................... 36 : Ma tr n h s tng quan gi a cc bi n

n t ng n trn t ng ti s n .................. 38 n n di h n trn t ng ti s n ............. 39 n n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n........... 41 n t ng n trn t ng ti s n c a m hnh n n di h n trn t ng ti s n c a m n n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n c a m

h i quy gi i h n................................................................................. 43 hnh h i quy gi i h n ........................................................................ 45 hnh h i quy gi i h n ........................................................................ 47 : K t qu h i quy theo ngnh. Bi n ph thu c: t ng n trn t ng ti s n ..................................................................................................... 50 : K t qu h i quy theo ngnh. Bi n ph thu c: n di h n trn t ng ti s n ..................................................................................................... 52 : K t qu h i quy theo ngnh. Bi n ph thu c: n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n ................................................................................................ 54 : Tm t t k t qu ki m nh cc h s h i quy c a n b y ti chnh ... ng n c u trc v n .............. 65 ........................................................................................................... 60 : K t qu nghin c u cc nhn t tc

DANH M C HNH V Trang Hnh 2.1 Hnh 3.1 Hnh 4.1 Hnh 4.2 Hnh 4.3 Hnh 4.4 Hnh 4.5 Hnh 4.6 : Cc nhn t tc : Bi u : Bi u : Bi u : Bi u : Bi u : Bi u ng n n b y ti chnh ..................................... 17 on c a LEV ............. 56 on c a LLEV .......... 57 on c a SLEV ........... 57 : S l ng cng ty phn chia theo ngnh ............................................ 27 phn tn gi a ph n d v gi tr d phn tn gi a ph n d v gi tr d phn tn gi a ph n d v gi tr d

phn ph i c a ph n d chu n ha c a LEV ........................ 58 phn ph i c a ph n d chu n ha c a LLEV...................... 58 phn ph i c a ph n d chu n ha c a SLEV ...................... 59

DANH M C CC PH L C

Ph l c 1 Ph l c 2 Ph l c 3 Ph l c 4 Ph l c 5

th phn ph i c a cc bi n Nam

: Danh sch 246 cng ty nim y t trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vi t : K t qu h i quy m hnh t ng th : K t qu h i quy m hnh gi i h n : K t qu h i quy m hnh t ng th theo ngnh

M CL C
L I CAM OAN L I C M N TM T T CHNG 1: GI I THI U ...................................................................................... 1 1. GI I THI U ........................................................................................................... 1 2. L DO CH N 3. V N TI .......................................................................................... 2 NGHIN C U ........................................................................................ 3

3.1 M C TIU NGHIN C U.................................................................................. 3 3.2 CU H I NGHIN C U .................................................................................... 3 4. I T NG V PH M VI NGHIN C U ........................................................ 3 TI NGHIN C U .......... 4 5. NGHA KHOA H C V TH C TI N C A

6. K T C U C A LU N VN ................................................................................ 4 CHNG 2: T NG QUAN CC NGHIN C U TRC Y ..................... 5 2.1 CC L THUY T KINH I N V C U TRC V N DOANH NGHI P ..... 5 2.1.1 L thuy t c u trc v n c a MM ......................................................................... 5 2.1.2 L thuy t nh i c u trc v n......................................................................... 5 Y V CC NHN T TC NG N 2.1.3 L thuy t tr t t phn h ng ................................................................................ 6 2.2 CC NGHIN C U TR C C U TRC V N DOANH NGHI P ........................................................................ 8 2.2.1 Wang Mou (2011) .............................................................................................. 8 2.2.2 Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011) ........................................................................ 9 2.2.3 Mary Hany A.K. Dawood v c ng s (2011) .................................................. 10 2.2.4 Akinlo Okayinka (2011) .................................................................................. 11 2.2.5 Mehdi Ebadi v c ng s (2011) ....................................................................... 12 2.2.6 Tr n nh Khi Nguyn v Neelakantan Ramachandran (2006) .................... 13 2.2.7 Hunh H u M nh (2010) ................................................................................. 14 2.2.8 L Ng c Trm (2010)....................................................................................... 15 2.3 CC NHN T TC NG N C U TRC V N DOANH NGHI P ..... 16

2.3.1 Quy m doanh nghi p (Firm Size) ................................................................... 17 2.3.2 C h i tng tr ng (Growth opportunities) ..................................................... 18 2.3.3 Kh nng sinh l i (Profitability) ...................................................................... 18 2.3.4 R i ro kinh doanh (Business risk) .................................................................... 19 2.3.5 Tnh thanh kho n (Liquidity) ........................................................................... 20 2.3.6 C u trc ti s n (Asset Structure) .................................................................... 20 2.3.7 T m ch n thu t kh u hao (Non-debt tax shield) ........................................... 21 2.3.8 c i m ngnh (Industry characteristic) ........................................................ 21 K T LU N CHNG 2.......................................................................................... 23 CHNG 3: PHNG PHP NGHIN C U .................................................. 24 3.1 PHNG PHP NGHIN C U....................................................................... 24 3.1.1 Quy trnh nghin c u ....................................................................................... 24 3.1.2 Phng php nghin c u.................................................................................. 25 3.2 C S D LI U ................................................................................................ 26 3.3 M HNH H I QUY NGHIN C U ............................................................... 27 3.4 CC GI THUY T NGHIN C U ................................................................. 30 K T LU N CHNG 3.......................................................................................... 31 CHNG 4: N I DUNG V K T QU NGHIN C U ................................. 32 4.1 K T QU KI M NH CC NHN T TC NG N C U TRC

V N C A CNG TY NIM Y T T I VI T NAM .............................................. 32 4.1.1 M t th ng k cc bi n c l p v n b y ti chnh ..................................... 32 4.1.2 Ma tr n h s tng quan gi a cc bi n .......................................................... 36 4.1.3 c l ng cc tham s h i quy ....................................................................... 37 4.1.3.1 c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy t ng th ................... 37 4.1.3.2 c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n ................... 42 4.1.4 Ki m nh gi thuy t v kh nng gi i thch c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n ... 48 4.1.5 K t qu c l ng cc tham s h i quy theo ngnh ........................................ 49 4.1.6 Ki m tra hi n t ng a c ng tuy n .................................................................. 55 4.1.7 Ki m tra gi nh quan h tuy n tnh v phng sai b ng nhau ...................... 56

4.1.8 Ki m tra gi

nh v phn ph i chu n c a cc ph n d .................................. 58

4.1.9 Pht hi n m i t k t qu nghin c u................................................................ 59 K T LU N CHNG 4.......................................................................................... 64 CHNG 5: K T LU N V KI N NGH ......................................................... 65 5.1 K T LU N ......................................................................................................... 65 5.2 CC KI N NGH HON THI N C U TRC V N ...................................... 66 5.3 CC GI I H N NGHIN C U V CC TI LI U THAM KH O PH C L C XU T NGHIN C U TRONG TNG LAI ............................................................................................................. 68

TM T T

TI
ng n c u trc v n c a

Bi nghin c u ny nh m tm hi u cc nhn t tc trong th i k t nm 2006

cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam. M u nghin c u g m 246 cng ty nim y t n 2011. M hnh nghin c u c p d ng d a trn cl p c nghin c u c a Wang Mou (2011), Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011) v Mary Hany A.K. Dawood cng c ng s (2011). M hnh nghin c u c cc bi n ti n hnh ki m ch n thu t nh bao g m quy m doanh nghi p (firm size), kh nng sinh l i kh u hao (non-debt tax shield), c h i tng tr ng (growth c i m ngnh (industry i di n cho c u trc v n l t ng n trn t ng ti s n (LEV), ng c ngha th ng k n c u trc c l p khc

(profitability), c u trc ti s n (asset structure), tnh thanh kho n (liquidity), t m opportunities), r i ro kinh doanh (business risk) v characteristic). Ba bi n

n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV) v n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (SLEV). K t qu nghin c u cho th y r ng cc bi n tc v n bao g m quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v c h i tng tr ng. M t bi n gi i di n cho t tc ng c ngha th ng k c i m ngnh cng c a vo m hnh v c tm th y l nhn n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t ng r t m nh n c u trc

Nam. Tuy nhin, r i ro kinh doanh l nhn t khng c ngha th ng k. Ngoi ra, bi nghin c u cng pht hi n ra r ng, b n nhn t tc thanh kho n. v n bao g m: kh nng sinh l i, quy m doanh nghi p, c u trc ti s n v tnh

CHNG 1 GI I THI U
1. GI I THI U Trong n n kinh t th tr ng, t, knh huy tng dng ti n ti tr cho cc ho t ng u

ng v n ph bi n nh t l pht hnh ch ng khon. Ch ng khon g m

c ch ng khon v n (equity securities) v ch ng khon n (debt securities). V n c ph n th hi n quy n s h u trong doanh nghi p. M i c ph n cho php ng i s h u c m t phi u bi u quy t h ic xc iv im iv n trong qu n tr doanh nghi p t i i ng hng nm v quy n c nh n cc l i ch c a cc c nh. S khc bi t gi a n v v n c ph n l r t quan tr ng trong vi c tnh thu . Doanh nghi p c g ng huy ng v n b ng cc ch ng khon n nh m m c ch h ng l i t t m ch n thu , trong khi chi ph ph s n ti m tng c a h cng tng theo. V v y, cc doanh nghi p ph i cn nh c vi c tng ln c a chi ph ph s n tr c khi pht hnh n . Thu t ng c u trc v n c xem nh s ph i h p gi a n v v n c ph n trong c u trc ti chnh di h n c a doanh nghi p. N c o l ng v th hi n thng qua h s n , n b y ti chnh ho c cc thu t ng khc nh m miu t cc kho n n c a doanh nghi p. C r t nhi u cng trnh nghin c u th c nghi m v cc nhn t quy t nh n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p nh Bradley, Jarrell, v Kim (1984), Titman v Wessels (1988), Rajan v Zingles (1995), v Wald (1999) s d ng d li u c a cc n c pht tri n nghin c u cc nhn t quy t nh n c u trc v n. Cc nghin c u khc v c u trc v n t th tr ng m i n i nh Booth et al. (2001), Wiwattanakantang (2001), v Chen (2004). ng. N l kho n

ph i tr m doanh nghi p c ngha v ph i thanh ton trong m t kho ng th i gian

Trong nh ng nm g n y, Booth, Aivazian, Demirgu-Kunt, v Maksimovic (2001) ti n hnh cc nghin c u th c nghi m nh m ki m li u c a 10 n c ang pht tri n th nh kh nng gi i thch c a cc m hnh c u trc v n t i cc n c ang pht tri n. Nghin c u s d ng d xem xt li u cc h c thuy t v c u trc v n c nh l a ch n v c u trc v n c a cc n c cc n c pht tri n. Do c on c u trc ti chnh c a doanh ng d ng chung cho cc n c v i cc th ch khc nhau hay khng? v c ng b i cc bi n tng t nh

b ng ch ng cho th y r ng cc quy t ang pht tri n ch u tc

v y, vi c hi u r cc nhn t ny gip vi c d trng v cc nhn t chnh hi n

nghi p s t t hn l bi t v qu c t ch c a n. Tuy nhin, v n c nh ng khc bi t

c th ring c a m i qu c gia c n c nghin c u. Bi

nghin c u cng cho th y r ng, m c d c m t vi s th u hi u v h c thuy t ti i c ng d ng cho cc n c, nhng v n cn nhi u th c n c c th hi u r c nh h ng c a cc TI t n t i v pht tri n i c bi t quan tr ng. c c trng v m t th ch nghin c u thm 2. L DO CH N

n vi c l a ch n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p. Nh chng ta bi t trong n n kinh t th tr ng, nng cao nng l c ti chnh v trnh

h i cc cng ty khng ng ng nng cao nng l c c nh tranh c a mnh, trong v n qu n tr v n tr nn Xy d ng m t c u trc v n ph h p c th lm gi m chi ph s d ng v n, t h ng ton c u ha, vi c cc doanh nghi p ngh u l m t vi c lm h t s c c n thi t. Tuy nhin, u, cc doanh nghi p c n hi u r mnh ang tc ng n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p, ng t

th gia tng gi tr doanh nghi p. Trong qu trnh h i nh p kinh t th gi i theo xu n xy d ng m t c u trc v n t i xy d ng m t c u trc v n t i c m t chi n l c ho ch nh

trong i u ki n no, cc nhn t no ti Nghin c u

v xy d ng c u trc v n cho ph h p. Chnh v v y, vi c ch n cc nhn t tc

n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam

v i hy v ng c th gip cc cng ty ny c m t ci nhn su r ng hn trong vi c ho ch nh v xy d ng m t c u trc v n t i u.

3. V N

NGHIN C U

3.1 M c tiu nghin c u M c tiu nghin c u l tm hi u s tc ng c a cc nhn t ln c u trc v n n 2011. Nh v y

c a cc cng ty nim y t Vi t Nam. Nghin c u t p trung vo cc cng ty nim y t trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vi t Nam trong th i k t 2006 m c tiu nghin c u l: - Xc - Xc nh cc nhn t c th nh nhn t no c tc ng nh h ng n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam, ng v t tr i ln c u trc v n - Cc nhn t tc nhau hay khng. 3.2 Cu h i nghin c u D a trn cc l do cho vi c l a ch n xu t cc cu h i nghin c u lin quan ti, m c tiu nghin c u. Tc gi ng n n c u trc v n gi a cc ngnh khc nhau c khc

n vi c nghin c u cc nhn t tc

c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam nh sau: - Cc nhn t no tc Nam? - Nhn t no c tc - Cc nhn t tc khng? 4. I T NG V PH M VI NGHIN C U: i t ng nghin c u: cc cng ty phi ti chnh nim y t trn hai sn giao ng v t tr i ln c u trc v n? ng n c u trc v n c khc nhau gi a cc ngnh hay ng n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t

d ch ch ng khon Vi t Nam: S giao d ch ch ng khon Thnh ph H Ch Minh v S giao d ch ch ng khon H N i. Ph m vi nghin c u: do nh ng h n ch v s li u nn tc gi ch n m u cc n ngy 31/12/2011. S li u tc gi ch n kh o n nm 2011. cng ty phi ti chnh nim y t tnh

st l s li u l y t bo co ti chnh c ki m ton t nm 2006

5. NGHA KHOA H C V TH C TI N C A

TI NGHIN C U

Bi nghin c u ny c ti n hnh c ngha khoa h c r t quan tr ng trn c phng di n l lu n v th c ti n, c th : V m t l lu n: h th ng l i cc h c thuy t v c u trc v n, nh n di n cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p, t ti gip xc cho chng ta th y r vai ng n c u trc v n tr quan tr ng c a c u trc v n V m t th c ti n: i v i s t n t i v pht tri n c a doanh nghi p nh cc nhn t tc ng th i cung c p thm b ng ch ng th c t c thm c s ho ch nh

c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam,

nghi m cho m t s h c thuy t v c u trc v n, gip cc doanh nghi p c ci nhn th u o hn v c u trc v n doanh nghi p, v xy d ng m t c u trc v n t i u. 6. K T C U C A LU N VN K t c u c a lu n vn g m 05 chng: Chng 1: Gi i thi u chung, l do ch n ti, m c tiu nghin c u, ti nghin c u. ng n i t ng v ph m vi nghin c u, ngha khoa h c v th c ti n c a

Chng 2: trnh by cc nghin c u th c nghi m cc nhn t tc gi i v nhn t

c u trc v n v m hnh h i quy nghin c u c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t trn th Vi t Nam. Nu khi qut cc l thuy t kinh i n v c u trc v n v cc nh h ng n c u trc v n doanh nghi p.

Chng 3: Phng php nghin c u v c s d li u, vi c thu th p v x l d li u, m u nghin c u, m hnh h i quy s d ng v cc gi thuy t nghin c u. Chng 4: Trnh by cc k t qu nghin c u hnh h i quy. Chng 5: K t lu n, ki n ngh hon thi n c u trc v n, h ng nghin c u ti p theo v cc h n ch c a ti. nh l ng thu c t m

CHNG 2 T NG QUAN CC NGHIN C U TR C Y

2.1 CC L THUY T KINH NGHI P 2.1.1 L thuy t c u trc v n c a Modigliani v Miller (M&M) L thuy t c u trc v n hi n hon h o, quy t i b t ngu n t bi vi t c a Modigliani v Miller n gi tr c a doanh nghi p. c ti chnh ang lm v i I N V C U TRC V N C A DOANH

(1985) v i tn g i l h c thuy t MM. Theo MM, trong i u ki n th tr ng v n nh ti tr khng nh h ng L p lu n ny c v tri v i nh ng g m cc gim doanh nghi p nhng l i ng trong nh ng gi nghi p c xc quy t

c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p mnh nh m tm ki m m t s gia tng trong gi tr nh c th m hai ng a ra. Tr l i v i l thuy t c u trc v n c a MM, hai ng cho r ng gi tr c a doanh nh b ng cc ti s n th c ch khng ph i b ng cc ch ng khon nh u t c c nh th vi c n gi tr doanh nghi p. L p lu n c a MM i. m doanh nghi p pht hnh. Nh v y, khi quy t nh c u trc v n khng lin quan

cng gi ng v i quy t c b o t n gi tr : khi ta chia ti s n c a doanh nghi p ra thnh nhi u ph n th t ng ti s n v n khng N u c m t s nh h i ny u t no Hai ng cng h tr l thuy t c a mnh b ng l p lu n mua bn song hnh. nh gi cao hn cho doanh nghi p c vay n th u t s t n d ng c nh gi cao kia i v thi t l p v i th tr ng hon h o, khng c chi ph giao d ch th nh bn c phi u c a doanh nghi p ang c m t c u trc v n c n c a ring h Nh v y, v i nh ng gi hon ton 2.1.2 L thuy t nh L thuy t nh xc nh d a trn s

h ng l i t chnh l ch gi ny.

nh c a th tr ng hon h o, theo MM, c u trc v n

c l p v i gi tr c a doanh nghi p. i c u trc v n(the trade-off theory) i c u trc v n cho r ng c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p c nh i gi a l i ch c a t m ch n thu (do li vay c kh u

tr thu ) v chi ph ki t qu ti chnh. Khi doanh nghi p vay cng nhi u n th l i ch c a t m ch n thu cng l n nhng chi ph ki t qu ti chnh cng tng theo. V v y, ch n cng s i h i m t t su t sinh l i cao hn, lm gia tng chi ph s d ng v n c a doanh nghi p. Do , c u trc v n t i u c a doanh nghi p c xc nh b ng cch gia tng l ng n vay cho t i khi l i ch bin t t m ch n thu cn b ng v i chi ph bin c a ki t qu ti chnh (theo Castanias, 1983). D l thuy t nh h n ch sau: u i m th nh t c a thuy t nh i c u trc v n l gi i thch c s khc bi t trong c u trc v n c a nhi u ngnh: nh ng ngnh c ti s n h u hnh an ton th t l n vay cao, nh ng ngnh c ti s n v hnh nhi u th t l n vay t (do t c ti s n c gi tr th ch p cho vay n ). u i m th hai c a thuy t nh cc doanh nghi p c mua i c u trc v n l gi i thch s ra ic a xu t t b ng v n vay (LBO). L thuy t ny cng i c u trc v n tnh hay ng th u c nh ng u i m v

r ng cc doanh nghi p sung mn c th tr ng s n ph m n h i tng tr ng v i NPV cao nn dng nhi u n vay h n ch chia c t c, bn b t ti s n c u trc v n. Tuy nhin, h n ch c a thuy t nh huy

nh lu di, t c c

t i a ha gi tr doanh i

nghi p. Trong khi , cc doanh nghi p c n vay qu n ng nn pht hnh c ph n, ng ti n m t nh m m c ch ti cn

i c u trc v n l khng th gi i thch ng c a h r t cao (b i v theo h ng l i t t m ch n m t l thuy t

c t i sao m t s doanh nghi p r t thnh cng trong ngnh l i c r t t n v khng dng t m ch n thu m c d thu nh p ho t nhu n ch u thu c u trc v n khc ra thuy t ny, doanh nghi p c l i nhu n cao th kh nng vay n cao v c nhi u l i c kh u tr th nn vay n nhi u i: l thuy t Tr t t phn h ng. thu lm tng gi tr doanh nghi p). Chnh h n ch ny l ti n 2.1.3 L thuy t tr t t phn h ng (pecking order theory) Theo l thuy t tr t t phn h ng (Myers, 1984), doanh nghi p thch s d ng ngu n ti tr n i b hn (l i nhu n gi l i). Sau khi dng h t l i nhu n gi l i,

doanh nghi p m i b t phi u c th chuy n ph n th ng.

u s d ng cc ngu n ti tr t bn ngoi. B t i). Khi dng h t n , doanh nghi p m i s d ng

u t cc nv nc

ch ng khon n an ton tr c (n vay) sau m i

n ch ng khon lai t p (tri

Th t u tin s d ng ngu n ti tr c a doanh nghi p theo l thuy t tr t t phn h ng nh sau: L i nhu n gi l i Vay n tr c ti p N c th chuy n C ph n th ng C ph n u i khng chuy n C ph n u i c th chuy n i i c doanh nghi p c nhi u thng tin v i

L thuy t tr t t phn h ng b t ngu n t thng tin b t cn x ng (theo Myers v Majluf, 1984). u t bn ngoi. Do , thng tin t ban gim c cc nh c c a doanh nghi p khi truy n ra bn ngoi s i u ny c g i l s nh ng c a ban qu n l doanh u t di n gi i theo nhi u cch khc nhau. l tnh tr ng cc gim ti m nng tng tr ng, cng nh r i ro v cc gi tr c a doanh nghi p hn cc nh

pht tn hi u (theo Ross, 1977). Pht tn hi u l hnh nghi p a ra nh m cung c p cho cc nh c a ban qu n l v tri n v ng c a doanh nghi p. So v i l thuy t nh ng hai

u t bn ngoi bi t c cc nh n

i c a c u trc v n, tr t t phn h ng khng c t l n nh, b i v c hai lo i v n c ph n th ng ng u ng cu i tr t t phn h ng.

trn v n c ph n th ng m c tiu xc

u khc nhau c a b ng tr t t phn h ng: l i nhu n gi l i

b ng tr t t phn h ng, trong khi v n c ph n th ng V so v i l thuy t nh

i c a c u trc v n, tr t t phn h ng tuy km thnh

cng trong vi c gi i thch s khc bi t trong t l n gi a cc ngnh, nhng l i thnh cng trong vi c gi i thch s khc bi t trong t l n c a cc doanh nghi p trong cng m t ngnh. Tr t t phn h ng gi i thch t i sao trong cng m t ngnh,

cc doanh nghi p c l i nhu n cao th ng c t l n r t th p (tri ng c v i thuy t nh vay n i c a c u trc v n l doanh nghi p c l i nhu n cng cao th kh nng vay nh thu c kh u tr cng nhi u th cng nn c h ng l i ch c a t m ch n thu ). Theo l thuy t tr t t phn h ng, n ti tr t bn ngoi r t t n km. i u ny gi i m n cng cao v l i nhu n b

cc doanh nghi p c l i nhu n cao c th t ti tr b ng ngu n v n n i sinh c a h (l i nhu n gi l i) m khng c n chnh. Tuy Tr t t phn h ng v nh nghin c u ki m i c u trc v n l hai l thuy t c nh tranh v i u ng h cho c hai l thuy t ny. Cc ic u u a ra k t nhau nhng cc ch ng c th c nghi m trc v n c m t s d French, 2002) 2.2 CC NGHIN C U TR C Y V CC NHN T TC NG N C U TRC V N DOANH NGHI P 2.2.1 Wang Mou (2011) N i dung nghin c u: nghin c u c ti n hnh nh m phn tch cc nhn t nh h ng n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t Trung Qu c. M u n 2010. H i quy theo phng php bnh phng b nh t nh h ng n trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nghin c u bao g m 1.230 doanh nghi p nim y t trn sn giao d ch ch ng khon H ng Kong t 2005 (OLS) nh m xc nim y t Trung Qu c. M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i m t bi n ph thu c l t ng n ph i tr trn t ng ti s n theo gi tr s sch (LEV). C b y bi n ph thu c bao g m c h i tng tr ng (GROWTH), kh nng sinh l i (PROFIT), tnh thanh kho n (LIQ), quy m doanh nghi p (SIZE), ti s n h u hnh (TANG), r i ro kinh doanh (RISK) v t m ch n thu t kh u hao (TAX). M hnh h i quy c s d ng nh sau: nh cc nhn t thch cho m i tng quan ngh ch trong ngnh gi a kh nng sinh l i v n b y ti

nh li u l thuy t tr t t phn h ng hay l thuy t nh on t t hn cho c u trc v n doanh nghi p

lu n ng h cho c hai l thuy t ny (theo Shyam, Sunder v Myers, 1999; Fama v

LEV= + 1TANGit + 2RISKit + 3SIZEit + 4TAXit + 5GROWTHit + 6PROFITit + 7LIQit + it K t qu nghin c u: k t qu nghin c u cho th y r ng, c nm bi n c l p c ngha v m t th ng k bao g m: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, r i ro kinh doanh v t m ch n thu . Quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, t m ch n thu c tng quan m nh v i n b y ti chnh v i m c ngha l 1%. Ch c tnh thanh kho n c ngha m c 10%. Kh nng sinh l i c tng quan thu n v i n b y ti chnh, i u ny c ngha l cc doanh nghi p c l i thch s d ng ngu n ti tr t bn ngoi hn l cc ngu n ti tr t l i nhu n gi l i . Nhn t th hai c quan h thu n v i n b y ti chnh l t m ch n thu t kh u hao, i u ny cho th y r ng cc doanh nghi p c n b y ti chnh cao th h ng l i nhi u hn t t m ch n thu t kh u hao (Bradley et al., 1984; Chen, 2003). Quy m doanh nghi p c quan h ng c chi u v i n b y ti chnh, i u ny c th gi i thch r ng, cc doanh nghi p l n thch ti tr b ng v n c ph n hn ti tr b ng n (Fama va Jensen, 1983; Yuan v Yang, 2002). R i ro kinh doanh c quan h thu n chi u v i n b y ti chnh, nh v y cc doanh nghi p c r i ro cao l do h tng n b y ti chnh. Tnh thanh kho n c quan h cng chi u m c ngha 10%, i u ny cho th y r ng, doanh nghi p c tnh thanh kho n cng cao s cng tng n b y ti chnh. Ngoi ra, c h i tng tr ng v ti s n h u hnh khng c ngha th ng k trong vi c xc nh cc nhn t nh h ng n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t Trung Qu c. 2.2.2 Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011) N i dung nghin c u: cng trnh nghin c u cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc

v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t Bangladesh. M u nghin c u bao g m 46 doanh nghi p nim y t trn tr tr ng ch ng khon Dhaka (DSE) trong b y nm (19992005). H i quy theo phng php bnh phng b nh t (OLS) nh m xc nhn t nh h ng nh cc n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p trong m u nghin c u.

M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i hai bi n ph thu c l t ng n trn t ng ti s n theo gi th tr ng (TDM), n di h n trn n di

10

h n v v n c ph n theo gi th tr ng (LTDM). Cc bi n

c l p bao g m: chi ph

i di n (TW, LP, JM), chi ph ph s n (BC), thu thu nh p doanh nghi p hi u l c (TAX), t m ch n thu t kh u hao (NDTS), kh nng sinh l i (PROF), quy m doanh nghi p (SIZE), c u trc ti s n (CVA), tu i c a doanh nghi p (AGE) v b n bi n gi i di n cho cc ngnh cng nghi p. M hnh h i quy s d ng: Leverage = + 1TW + 2LP + 3JM + 4BC + 5TAX + 6NDTS + 7PROF + 8SIZE + 9CVA + 10AGE + 11Dummy1 + 12Dummy2 + 13Dummy3 + 14Dummy4 + K t qu nghin c u: k t qu cho th y r ng chi ph i di n c quan h ng c n b y t ng n . Chi chi u v i n b y t ng n . Thu su t ch c quan h cng chi u v i h s t ng n , t m ch n thu t kh u khao c quan h ng c chi u v i h s ph ph s n v kh nng sinh l i khng c ngha th ng k, trong khi quy m doanh nghi p c quan h cng chi u v i c h s n di h n v t ng n . C u trc ti s n ch c nh h ng cng chi u v i n b y t ng n , trong khi tu i c a doanh nghi p khng c ngha th ng k. Ngoi ra, ngha trong vi c xc c i m ngnh cng c tm th y c nh n b y ti chnh doanh nghi p. ng c a cc nhn t nh h ng nc u

2.2.3 Mary Hany A.K. Dawood v c ng s (2011) N i dung nghin c u: phn tch tc

trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t Ai C p. M u nghin c u bao g m 37 doanh nghi p phi ti chnh trong th i k t nm 1999 php tc nh m xc nh cc nhn t nh h ng n 2007. H i quy theo phng ng ng u nhin (GLS) v phng php phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p trong

m u nghin c u. M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i bi n ph thu c l t ng n trn v n ch s h u (D/E). Cc bi n c l p bao g m: quy m doanh nghi p (SZ), c h i tng tr ng (AG), kh nng sinh l i (PR), tnh thanh kho n (LQ), chi ph n vay (CD), r i ro kinh doanh (BR), ngnh cng nghi p (IN) l bi n gi . M hnh h i quy s d ng: DE = + 1SZit + 2AGit + 3PRit + 4LQit + 5CDt + 6BRit + 7INit + it

11

K t qu nghin c u: k t qu cho th y r ng, t t c cc bi n

cl p

u c

ngha th ng k ngo i tr bi n chi ph n vay. Kh nng sinh l i, tnh thanh kho n, r i ro kinh doanh c quan h ng c chi u v i n b y ti chnh, trong khi quy m doanh nghi p v t l tng tr ng c quan h cng chi u v i n b y ti chnh. Ngoi ra, ngnh cng nghi p cng nh h ng bi t do nh h ng c a n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p, c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p thu c cc ngnh khc nhau s c s khc c i m t ng ngnh. Nhn chung, c b ng ch ng cho th y Ai C p c khuynh h ng xy d ng c u trc v n r ng cc doanh nghi p nim y t 2.2.4 Akinlo Okayinka (2011) N i dung nghin c u: nghin c u tc ng c a cc nhn t tc ng nc u

ph h p v i l thuy t tr t t phn h ng.

trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t Nigeria. M u nghin c u bao g m 66 doanh nghi p nim y t trn tr tr ng ch ng khon Nigeria trong th i k t nm 1997 n 2007 v s d ng d li u d ng b ng. H i quy theo phng php bnh ng c nh v phng php tc ng nh cc nhn t nh h ng n c u trc v n c a cc doanh phng b nh t (OLS), phng php tc ng u nhin nh m xc nghi p trong m u nghin c u. M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i m t bi n ph thu c l t ng n trn t ng ti s n (LEV). Cc bi n (PROF), quy m doanh nghi p (SIZ) v t c h i quy s d ng: LEVit = + 1SGRit + 2TANGit + 3LIQit + 4PROFit + 5SIZt + 6GDPGit + it LEVit = + 1SGRit + 2TANGit + 3LIQit + 4PROFit + 5SIZt + 6GDPGit + it LEVit = + 1SGRit + 2TANGit + 3LIQit + 4PROFit + 5SIZt + 6GDPGit + it + it c l p bao g m: c h i tng tr ng (SGR), ti s n h u hnh (TANG), tnh thanh kho n (LIQ), kh nng sinh l i tng tr ng GDP (GDPG). M hnh

12

K t qu nghin c u: k t qu cho th y r ng c h i tng tr ng c quan h ng c chi u v i n b y ti chnh, i u ny ph h p v i thuy t nh i c u trc v n. Cng tng t , ti s n h u hnh c quan h ngh ch v i n b y theo phng php OLS, kh nng sinh l i cng c quan h ng c chi u v i n b y v ph h p v i l thuy t tr t t phn h ng. Ng c l i, quy m doanh nghi p v tnh thanh kho n c quan h cng chi u v i n b y ph h p v i l thuy t nh v n. Nhn chung, ch c ba bi n tng tr ng c ngha i c u trc c l p khng c ngha th ng k, cc bi n cn l i

u c ngha th ng k. Ring kh nng sinh l i, quy m doanh nghi p v c h i m c 10%. ng n c u trc v n c a n 2009. H i quy nh 2.2.5 Mehdi Ebadi v c ng s (2011) N i dung nghin c u: nghin c u cc nhn t tc

cc doanh nghi p nim y t Iran. M u nghin c u bao g m 72 doanh nghi p nim y t trn tr tr ng ch ng khon Iran trong th i k t nm 2003 theo phng php bnh phng b nh t (OLS) nh m xc h ng nh cc nhn t

n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p trong m u nghin c u. c l p bao g m: tnh thanh kho n i di n cho cc doanh nghi p c n

M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i bi n ph thu c l t ng n trn t ng ti s n (Yit). Cc bi n r i ro kinh doanh (BUSR) v bi n gi (DUM) h i quy s d ng: M hnh 1: Yit = + 1LIQit + 2PROit + 3TANit + 4GROit + 5BUSRit + e M hnh 2: Yit = + 1LIQit + 2PROit + 3TANit + 4GROit + 5BUSRit + 6DUM + e K t qu nghin c u: k t qu cho th y r ng kh nng sinh l i c quan h ng c chi u v i n b y ti chnh, i u ny ph h p v i l thuy t tr t t phn h ng nhng ng c l i v i l thuy t nh l nhn t i c u trc v n. Hn n a, kh nng sinh l i c xem n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t nh h ng m nh nh t (LIQ), ti s n h u hnh (TAN), kh nng sinh l i (PRO), c h i tng tr ng (GRO), b y cao (t 30% tr ln) v cc doanh nghi p c n b y th p (d i 30%). M hnh

Iran, theo sau l tnh thanh kho n, ti s n h u hnh, c h i tng tr ng v r i ro

13

kinh doanh. Tnh thanh kho n c quan h ng c chi u c ngha v i h s n ph h p v i l thuy t tr t t phn h ng nhng l i tri v i l thuy t nh i. Ti s n h u hnh c m i quan h dng c ngha v i h s n . C h i tng tr ng v h s n c quan h cng chi u v c ngha th ng k. Cu i cng l r i ro kinh doanh c m i tng quan ng c chi u v i h s n . Nh v y, c nm bi n c l p nu trn u c ngha th ng k trong m i tng quan v i h s n . Ngoi ra, bi n gi cng c m i tng quan thu n ln n b y, i u ny cho th y r ng c s khc bi t l n gi a c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p c h s n l n v cc doanh nghi p c h s n nh . 2.2.6 Tr n nh Khi Nguyn v Neelakantan Ramachandran (2006) N i dung nghin c u: nghin c u tc ng c a cc nhn t tc c ng nc u

trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p v a v nh Vi t Nam, v a v nh cc doanh nghi p c v n i u l d i 10 t ho c s l ng lao k t nm 1998 nh m xc m u nghin c u.

nh ngha l

ng t hn 300

ng i. M u nghin c u bao g m 558 doanh nghi p v a v nh Vi t Nam trong th i n 2001. H i quy theo phng php bnh phng b nh t (OLS) nh h ng n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p trong nh cc nhn t

M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i ba bi n ph thu c l t ng n trn t ng ti s n, vay ng n h n trn t ng ti s n v n ng n h n khc trn t ng ti s n. Cc bi n c l p bao g m: quy m doanh nghi p (SIZE), ti s n h u hnh (TANG), kh nng sinh l i (PROF), c h i tng tr ng (GROWTH) v r i ro kinh doanh (RISK). M hnh h i quy s d ng: Leverage = + 1GROWTH + 2TANG + 3RISK + 4PROF + 5SIZE + K t qu nghin c u: k t qu th c nghi m cho th y r ng cc doanh nghi p v a v nh g n nh s d ng n ng n h n Hnh th c s h u cng nh h ng ti tr cho ho t ng kinh doanh c a mnh. i v i c u trc v n, trong n vi c ti tr c a cc doanh nghi p. Cc kho n n. i u ng ch l cc doanh nghi p nh

ph i tr ng n h n cng nh h ng c ngha th ng k khi , n di h n l i t c s d ng

n c c h s n cao hn cc doanh nghi p t nhn. Th hai, Quy m doanh

14

nghi p, r i ro kinh doanh c m i quan h cng chi u v i c u trc v n v c ngha th ng k. Ngoi ra, kh nng sinh l i khng c nh h ng tr ng n h n. Th ba, nhn t lin quan ho t n c u trc v n m i n m c ngha. Ti s n h u hnh c quan h ng c chi u v i h s t ng n v n ph i n hnh vi qu n l c nh h ng m nh c u trc v n, m i quan h cng thn thi t th kho n n vay cng l n ng kinh doanh. Hn n a, m i quan h v i cc ti tr cho

i tc cng l n th cng c c

h i nh n c cc kho n tn d ng thng m i v ngu n ti chnh khc cng l n. 2.2.7 Hunh H u M nh (2010) N i dung nghin c u: nghin c u c t a nhn t tc ng B ng ch ng th c nghi m v cc

n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t trn th tr ng n 2009. H i quy nh

ch ng khon Vi t Nam. M u nghin c u bao g m 252 doanh nghi p phi ti chnh nim y t trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vi t Nam t nm 2008 theo phng php bnh phng b nh t (OLS) nh m xc h ng nh cc nhn t

n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p trong m u nghin c u.

M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i ba bi n ph thu c l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (STD), n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LTD) v t ng n trn t ng ti s n (TD). Bi n (ROA), ti s n c (SIZE), r i ro kinh doanh (RISK), (STATE). STD = f(ROA;TANG;TAX;SIZE;GROW;RISK;UNI;LIQ;NDTS;STATE) LTD = f(ROA;TANG;TAX;SIZE;GROW;RISK;UNI;LIQ;NDTS;STATE) TD = f(ROA;TANG;TAX;SIZE;GROW;RISK;UNI;LIQ;NDTS;STATE) K t qu nghin c u: k t qu cho th y r ng, c b y bi n c m i tng quan n n b y ti chnh bao g m, kh nng sinh l i, ti s n h u hnh, quy m doanh nghi p, c h i tng tr ng, c i m ring c a s n ph m, tnh thanh kho n, t l v n s h u c a Nh n c. Ti s n h u hnh, c h i tng tr ng v t l v n s h u Nh n c c tng quan thu n v i n b y. Trong khi kh nng sinh l i, tnh c l p bao g m 10 bi n: kh nng sinh l i c i m ring c a s n ph m (UNI), tnh thanh nh (TANG), t m ch n thu (TAX), quy m doanh nghi p

kho n (LIQ), t m ch n thu t kh u hao (NDTS), t l v n s h u Nh n c

15

thanh kho n c quan h ngh ch v i n b y. Ring quy m doanh nghi p c quan h ngh ch v i h s n ng n h n nhng l i quan h thu n v i h s n di h n v h s t ng n . Ngoi ra, c i m ring c a s n ph m c quan h ngh ch v i h s n ng n h n v quan h thu n v i h s n di h n. Ba bi n khng c ngha th ng k bao g m: thu thu nh p doanh nghi p, r i ro kinh doanh, t m ch n thu t kh u hao. 2.2.8 L Ng c Trm (2010) N i dung nghin c u: nghin c u c t a Phn tch cc nhn t tc ng

n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p Vi t Nam. M u nghin c u c ch n bao g m 177 doanh nghi p nim y t trn hai sn ch ng khon l S giao d ch ch ng khon TP.HCM (HOSE) v S giao d ch ch ng khon H N i (HNX) t nm 2005 n 2008. H i quy theo phng php bnh phng b nh t (OLS) nh m xc cc nhn t c u. M hnh nghin c u: d a trn m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh b i v i ba bi n ph thu c l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (STD), n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LTD) v t ng n trn t ng ti s n (LEV). Bi n (FA), t c c l p bao g m 10 bi n: ti s n c nh tng tr ng (GRO), kh nng thanh ton hi n hnh (LIQ), t su t sinh c i m nh h ng nh n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p trong m u nghin

l i (ROA), quy m doanh nghi p (SIZE), t l s h u Nh n c (STATE), ti s n h u hnh (TANG), thu su t bin t thu thu nh p doanh nghi p (TAX), nh sau: LEVit = a1 + a2FA + a3GRO + a4LIQ + a5ROA + a6SIZE + a7STATE + a8TANG + a9TAX + a10UNI + a11VOL + it STDit = a1 + a2FA + a3GRO + a4LIQ + a5ROA + a6SIZE + a7STATE + a8TANG + a9TAX + a10UNI + a11VOL + it LTDit = a1 + a2FA + a3GRO + a4LIQ + a5ROA + a6SIZE + a7STATE + a8TANG + a9TAX + a10UNI + a11VOL + it ring c a s n ph m (UNI), r i ro kinh doanh (VOL). M hnh h i quy c s d ng

16

K t qu nghin c u: k t qu cho th y r ng, c tm bi n c m i tng quan n n b y ti chnh (c ngha m c 1% v 5%) bao g m: FA quan h thu n v i LTD v quan h ngh ch v i STD; LIQ quan h ngh ch v i LEV v STD; ROA quan h ngh ch v i LEV v LTD; SIZE quan h thu n v i LEV, STD v LTD; STATE quan h ngh ch v i STD v quan h thu n v i LTD; TANG quan h thu n v i LEV v STD; TAX quan h ngh ch v i LEV v STD; UNI quan h thu n v i STD v quan ngh ch v i LTD. Ngoi ra, bi n GRO v VOL khng dy tc b y ti chnh (th ng k t > 5%). 2.3 CC NHN T NGHI P hi u r cc nhn t tc gi i ng n c u trc v n lun lun l m t v n nan cc TC NG N C U TRC V N C A DOANH ng n n

i v i cc nh qu n tr ti chnh v n v n cn l m i quan tm chnh

doanh nghi p ngy nay. Ngy cng nhi u cc doanh nghi p xem tr ng vi c ho ch nh cc chi n l c cho c u trc v n c a mnh nh m nng cao gi tr c a doanh nghi p. V v y, vi c hi u r cc nhn t quy t tc ng ln c u trc v n c m t vai tr quy t C nhi u nhn t quy t trong gi i h n nghin c u c a Wang Mou (2011), nh doanh nghi p (Jensen v Meckling, 1976). n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p. Tuy nhin ng d ng m hnh nghin c u c a c ng ti, tc gi ch nh n c u trc v n v nhn t no nh trong chi n l c pht tri n c a

ng th i theo cc nghin c u th c nghi m c a Mohammad n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p. V v y, tc gi i di n cho nh c i m ngnh vo nghin c u tc

Abu Sayeed (2011), Mary Hany A.K. Dawood v c ng s (2011) cho th y r ng, i m ngnh c nh h ng a thm bi n gi cl p

n c u trc v n doanh nghi p. Nh v y, cc nhn t quy t trong doanh v n c u trc v n c tc gi nghin c u ti ny bao g m: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, tnh thanh c i m ngnh. Trn c s ny, s cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc

kho n, c u trc ti s n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao, c h i tng tr ng, r i ro kinh v n c th hi n tm t t nh sau:

17

Hnh 2.1: Cc nhn t tc 2.3.1 Quy m doanh nghi p (Firm Size)

ng

n n b y ti chnh

V m t l thuy t, m i quan h gi a kch c doanh nghi p v n b y ti chnh th khng r rng. Theo m hnh nh i c u trc v n, doanh nghi p l n c kh nng vay n cao hn. Cc doanh nghi p l n a d ng ha nhi u hn v do r i ro ph s n th p hn. H c th gi m chi ph giao d ch khi pht hnh n di h n, v v y m i quan h cng chi u gi a kch c doanh nghi p v n b y. Ng c l i, theo thuy t tr t t phn h ng, b t thng tin gi a n i b doanh nghi p v th tr ng v n th p hn i v i cc doanh nghi p l n, v v y cc doanh nghi p l n s pht hnh c i u ny ch ra m i quan h ng c chi u gi a t l n b y v ph n nhi u hn.

kch c doanh nghi p. H u h t cc nghin c u th c nghi m cho th y c m i quan h cng chi u gi a quy m doanh nghi p v n b y ti chnh bao g m Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mary Hany A.K Dawood (2011), Akinlo Olayinka (2011), Rajan va Zingles (1995). Al-Sakran (2001) v Hovakimian et al. (2004) cng pht hi n m i quan h cng chi u gi a quy m doanh nghi p v n b y ti chnh. Tuy nhin, m t vi nh nghin c u pht hi n m i quan h ng c chi u gi a quy m doanh nghi p v

18

n b y (Fama v Jensen, 1983), Huan v Jang (2002) phn tch nh h ng c a quy m ln c u trc v n b ng cch s d ng logarithm c a t ng ti s n. H pht hi n m i quan h ng c chi u gi a quy m doanh nghi p v h s n . 2.3.2 C h i tng tr ng (Growth opportunities) Nh ng nghin c u l thuy t cho r ng c m i tng quan ngh ch gi a c h i tng tr ng v n b y ti chnh. Trong tr ng h p u t d i m c t i u, doanh nghi p c c h i tng tr ng cao th ng b qua cc d n c NPV dng b i v s t n t i c a n cha chi tr h t (theo Myers, 1977). i u ny l do l i nhu n c c t nh ng d n nh v y s c ac h i c chuy n h t cho ch n hn l c ng c h ng l i. N u nh qu n l theo u i m c tiu tng tr ng, th l i ch c a nh qu n l v ng c xu h ng trng h p v i nhau u t l n. Trong tr ng h p i v i cc doanh nghi p c nhi u c i di n c a vi c nh qu n u t v t m c t i u m trong doanh nghi p n b y. Cc doanh nghi p l n c khuynh h ng s d ng ti tr b ng v n c ph n nhi u hn l ti tr

thi u i nh ng c h i l t do hnh

u t th n s lm gi m chi ph

ng theo mu n c a mnh. V v y, doanh nghi p tng tr ng cao s u c a mnh v do , c h i tng

khng xem vi c pht hnh n l u tin hng tr ng c tng quan m v i n b y ti chnh.

Cc nghin c u th c nghi m cho th y m i quan h ng c chi u bao g m Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Akinlo Olayinka (2011), Kester (1986), Rajan and Zingles (1995), Kim and Sorensen (1996), Wald (1999), Ozkan (2001), Cassar and Holmes (2003), Chen (2004). 2.3.3 Kh nng sinh l i (Profitability) Nh ng d on theo l thuy t khng mang l i nh ng k t lu n ch c ch n cho ic u

m i tng quan gi a kh nng sinh l i v n b y ti chnh. Thuy t nh

trc v n cho r ng cc doanh nghi p c kh nng sinh l i c nhu c u gi l i l i nhu n sau khi n p thu thu nh p doanh nghi p cao hn v nn vay m n nhi u hn. Trong khi , thuy t tr t t phn h ng l i cho r ng c m i tng quan ngh ch gi a kh nng sinh l i v t l n . Theo thuy t tr t t phn h ng, doanh nghi p c cho

19

l u tin s d ng ngu n ti tr n i b hn l ti tr t bn ngoi. ngu n ti tr bn ngoi khi l i nhu n gi l i khng

i u ny d n t i im t

vi c doanh nghi p s s d ng l i nhu n gi l i tr c tin r i m i chuy n sang s d ng. Khi ph i v i s l a ch n gi a vi c dng tri phi u hay v n c ph n, doanh nghi p s u tin pht hnh n hn l pht hnh v n c ph n. Trong tr ng h p ny, doanh nghi p c kh nng sinh l i cao s dng t n hn cc doanh nghi p khc. Tuy nhin, h u h t cc nghin c u th c nghi m u kh ng nh m i tng quan ngh ch gi a kh nng sinh l i v n b y ti chnh (Mary Hany A.K Dawood, 2011; Akinlo Olayinka, 2011; Mehdi Ebadi et al. , 2011; Titman v Wessel, 1988; Rajan v Zingales, 1995; Wald, 1999). Trong khi , m i tng quan thu n gi a kh nng sinh l i v n b y th t c ng h hn v c tm th y trong cc nghin c u th c nghi m c a Petersen v Rajan (1995), Sen, Genxiang v Fangzhu (1999), Hong, Xixi (2000), v Yifeng Shen (2001). 2.3.4 R i ro kinh doanh (Business risk) R i ro kinh doanh l r i ro ti m n trong ho t nghi p khi khng quan tm nh ng thay doanh thu v gi c cc y u t i v thu nh p m s thay ng kinh doanh c a doanh ic a

n vi c s d ng n . R i ro kinh doanh g n li n v i i ny c ngu n g c t nh ng thay u vo c a doanh nghi p nh gi nguyn v t li u,

chi ph nng l ng v chi ph ti n lng. Theo n i dung chi ph ki t qu ti chnh, doanh nghi p c r i ro kinh doanh cao s c kh nng ki t qu ti chnh cao hn v s dao s n. Theo l thuy t nh n th p. Ng c l i, theo l thuy t tr t t phn h ng, nh ng doanh nghi p c r i ro l n, gi ch ng khon dao ng nhi u th b t cn x ng thng tin s gia tng. Do nh ng doanh nghi p c r i ro cao th s ch n n nhi u hn v n c ph n. i c u trc v n, i v i nh ng doanh nghi p c r i ro cao, vi c vay n cng nhi u c th gy thi t h i cho c cng nn h s duy tr t l ng c a thu nh p ho t ng, do v y doanh nghi p ph i cn nh c gi a l i ch t m ch n thu v i chi ph ph

20

Cc nghin c u nh Mary Hany A.K Dawood (2011), Mehdi Ebadi et al. (2011), DeAnglo v Masulis (1980), Titman v Wessels (1988), Kremp et al. (1999), Booth et al. (2001), Bhaduri (2002), Frank v Goyal (2003), De Jong et al. (2008), Chen (2004) cng kh ng doanh v n b y ti chnh. 2.3.5 Tnh thanh kho n (Liquidity) Theo thuy t tr t t phn h ng, doanh nghi p u tin s d ng ngu n ti tr n i b hn l bn ngoi. V v y, doanh nghi p c th t o ra tnh thanh kho n cho mnh t vi c s d ng ngu n l i nhu n gi l i. N u cc ti s n c tnh thanh kho n ti tr cho cc d n ngh ch. Cc nghin c u th c nghi m h tr cho m i quan h cng chi u ny bao g m: Mary Hany A.K Dawood (2011), Mehdi Ebadi et al. (2011), Rajan and Zingles (1995), Wald (1999), Ozkan (2001), Panno (2003), Deesomsak, Pandyal and Pescetto (2004). 2.3.6 C u trc ti s n (Asset Structure) Cc l thuy t th ng cho r ng ti s n c v i n b y ti chnh. B i v ti s n c nh h u hnh c tng quan thu n nh h u i di n c a nh u t th doanh nghi p khng c n ph i s d ng n cc ngu n ti tr bn ngoi. Do , tnh thanh kho n v n b y ti chnh c tng quan nh m i quan h ngh ch chi u gi a r i ro kinh

nh h u hnh c th s d ng nh v t th

ch p khi vay m n t ngu n ti tr bn ngoi, m t t l l n ti s n c hng th p hn v cng gip gi m r i ro c a ng i cho vay t chi ph vi c s d ng n . B i v n c th h u hnh, c h i c

hnh c a doanh nghi p c th gip doanh nghi p c c m t m c li su t vay ngn m b o b ng s th ch p ti s n c

doanh nghi p c th th c hi n vi c thay th ti s n c a mnh s m b o, do mang l i m t s i v i doanh

b gi m i do s hi n h u c a m t t l l n n c nghi p c nhi u ti s n c c

an ton cho ch n (theo Stuzl v Johnson, 1985; Johnson, 1997).

nh v hnh, chi ph s d ng v n cao hn do s ki m

sot vi c s d ng v n vay kh khn hn. V v y, m t doanh nghi p c t l ti s n nh h u hnh trn t ng ti s n l n th ng s d ng nhi u n hn.

21

Cc k t qu nghin c u th c nghi m kh ng

nh m i quan h thu n chi u gi a

c u trc ti s n v n b y ti chnh bao g m Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mehdi Ebadi et al. (2011), Marsh (1982), Long va Malitz (1985), Titman v Wessel (1988), Van de Wijst v Thurik (1993), Rajan v Zingales (1995), Wald (1999), Wiwattanakantang (1999), Hirota (1999), Um (2001), Chen (2004). 2.3.7 T m ch n thu t kh u hao (Non-debt tax shield) T m ch n thu t kh u hao l cc kho n khng ph i li vay c kh u tr thu nh kh u hao, cc chi ph cho l i ch t thu c a vi c vay n . cng cao th doanh nghi p cng t c n u t cho s pht tri n. Theo nghin c u c a i u c ngha l t m ch n thu t kh u hao n t m ch n thu n nn cng t vay n . Do DeAngelo v Masulis (1980), cc kho n t kh u hao c kh u tr thu s thay th

, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v n b y ti chnh c tng quan ngh ch. M i quan h ng c chi u c tm th y trong nghin c u c a Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Bardley, Jarrel and Kim (1994), Harris and Raviv (1990), Chapslinsky and Niehaus (1983), Wald (1999), Hirota (1999). 2.3.8 c i m ngnh (Industry Characteristic) M t trong nh ng nhn t tc nghi p chnh l ng ng k n c u trc v n c a m t doanh

c i m ngnh ngh kinh doanh c a n. Theo nghin c u c a nh

Myers (1984), Haris v Raviv (1991), nh ng doanh nghi p thu c cc ngnh ngh khc nhau th ng c c u trc v n khc nhau. Nh ng ngnh c nhi u ti s n c h u hnh nh my mc, nh x ng, hng s u tin cho vay hn do tnh ch t b o c u vay n s l n hn nh ng ngnh c ti s n c t ai hn th kh nng vay n cng nh nhu nh h u hnh t hn v cc ngn nh h u hnh l n i v i cc nh h u hnh.

i v i nh ng doanh nghi p c ti s n c m c m c c a cc ti s n c

doanh nghi p thu c lnh v c nng nghi p v i tnh ch t theo ma v nn th ng c nhu c u v n ng n h n cao, cc doanh nghi p thu c ngnh cng nghi p th c nhu c u v n di h n cao k t h p v i v n c ph n do tnh ch t i h i ti s n c cao. nh

22

Cc nghin c u c a Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mary A.K. Dawood (2011), Yan Xue (2007) cho th y c s khc bi t trong n b y ti chnh c a cc cng ty do c i m ngnh. ng Tm l i, trong gi i h n nghin c u k t h p v i m c tiu nghin c u, tc gi tm t t cc k t qu nghin c u theo l thuy t v th c nghi m cc nhn t tc n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p nh sau:
B ng 2.1: Tm t t cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc v n theo l thuy t v th c nghi m L thuy t Nhn t tc ng v Cc nghin c u ln n b y ti th c nghi m th c chnh nghi m Wang Mou (2011), Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mary Hany Quy m doanh A.K Dawood (2011), Akinlo Olayinka (2011), Marsh (1982), +/nghi p Booth et al. (2001), Rajan and Zingles (1995) Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Akinlo Olayinka (2011), Kester C h i tng (1986), Rajan and Zingles (1995), Kim and Sorensen (1996), +/tr ng Wald (1999), Chen (2004) Kh nng sinh l i R i ro kinh doanh Tnh thanh kho n C u trc ti s n T m ch n thu t kh u hao c i m ngnh +/+/+ >< Wang Mou (2011), Mary Hany A.K Dawood (2011), Akinlo Olayinka (2011), Mehdi Ebadi et al. (2011), Rajan and Zingles (1995), Titman and Wessels (1988), Booth et al. (2001) Wang Mou (2011), Mary Hany A.K Dawood (2011), Mehdi Ebadi et al. (2011), Booth et al. (2001), Chen (2004) Mary Hany A.K Dawood (2011), Mehdi Ebadi et al. (2011), Rajan and Zingles (1995), Wald (1999). Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mehdi Ebadi et al. (2011), Rajan and Zingles (1995), Wald (1999), Booth et al. (2001), Chen (2004) Bardley, Jarrel and Kim (1994), Harris and Raviv (1990), Chapslinsky and Niehaus (1983), Wald (1999), Hirota (1999). Myers (1984), Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mary Hany A.K Dawood (2011), Yan Xue (2007)

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p Ghi ch: d u + c ngha l n b y gia tng cng v i nhn t . - c ngha l n b y gi m cng v i nhn t . +/- ngha l c hai m i quan h cng chi u v ng c chi u gi a n b y v nhn t . >< ngha l c s khc bi t trong n b y ti chnh gi a cc ngnh.

23

B ng 2.1 cho th y cc nhn t : quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao, c h i tng tr ng, r i ro kinh doanh v c i m ngnh c tc ng n n b y ti chnh hay c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p. K T LU N CHNG 2

Chng 2 t p trung vo cc n i dung nh sau: Th nh t, trnh by cc nghin c u th c nghi m cc nhn t tc c u trc v n, m hnh v k t qu ki m th gi i v nh h ng Vi t Nam. n c u trc v n doanh nghi p. ng n nh c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t trn

Th hai, nu khi qut cc l thuy t kinh i n v c u trc v n v cc nhn t

24

CHNG 3 PHNG PHP NGHIN C U

3.1PHNG PHP NGHIN C U 3.1.1 Quy trnh nghin c u Quy trnh nghin c u c th c hi n tm t t qua b ng sau:

25

3.1.2 Phng php nghin c u: Phng php nghin c u c a v so snh s li u.Phng php nh m nh gi tc hi n c ti n hnh nh sau: B c 1: Thu th p s li u t bo cc ti chnh nm c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vi t Nam ch y u t cc website c a cc doanh nghi p ch ng khon, thnh ph n c tc ng y ban ch ng khon nh n c, S giao d ch ch ng khon H nh cc n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p, sau s p x p, trch l c a s li u vo ph n N i, S giao d ch ch ng khon Thnh ph H Ch Minh. Tnh ton v xc v lm s ch s li u thu c. B c 2: Trn c s cc ch s tnh ton c, tc gi m m SPSS 16 v ti n hnh phn tch s li u. B c 3: Nghin c u SPSS 16.0, c th nh sau: Phn tch m t : nh m xc h i quy s d ng. Phn tch tng quan Pearson: trong phn tch ny, tc gi trnh by h s tng quan Pearson gi a cc bi n. H s tng quan miu t m c gi a cc bi n cc bi n c l p v i nhau v t c th nh n tng quan nh li u c x y ra hi n t ng nh thng s c a cc bi n bao g m: gi tr nh l ch chu n c a cc bi n trong m hnh nh t, gi tr l n nh t, gi tr trung bnh v nh l ng b ng m hnh kinh t l ng, s d ng phng c l ng cc tham s h i quy b ng ph n m m php bnh phng b nh t (OLS) ti bao g m phng php thng k, phn tch cl p n bi n ph thu c. Cc b c th c

nh l ng c s d ng cho m hnh kinh t l ng

ng c a cc bi n

a c ng tuy n trong m hnh h i quy s d ng hay khng.Trong bi nghin c u ny, c l p l quy m doanh nghi p (SIZE), kh nng sinh l i (PRO), tnh c i m ngnh (DUMMY). thanh kho n (LIQ), c u trc ti s n (TANG), c h i tng tr ng (GROW), t m ch n thu t kh u hao (NDTS), r i ro kinh doanh(RISK) v Bi n ph thu c l n b y ti chnh s n (SLEV). i di n cho c u trc v n bao g m: t ng n trn

t ng ti s n (LEV), n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV) v n ng n h n trn t ng ti

26

Phn tch h i quy b i: tc gi s d ng ph n m m SPSS 16.0 bi n c l p.

c l ng cc ng

h s h i quy, vi c phn tch t p trung vo m i quan h gi a bi n ph thu c v cc c bi t hn l trong phn tch h i quy b i gip hi u r hn tc ng m nh c a cc bi n t no c tc c l p ln bi n ph thu c nh th no v nh h ng bao nhiu, nhn n c u trc v n.Trong bi nghin c u ny, phn tch h i

quy c th c hi n cho hai d ng m hnh l m hnh h i quy t ng th v m hnh h i quy gi i h n. lo i nh ng bi n i v i m hnh h i quy gi i h n s s d ng k thu t ch n bi n c l p no khng ph h p ra kh i m hnh h i quy t ng th . ng ng theo phng php lo i tr d n (backward elimination) b ng ph n m m SPSS nh m th i tc gi cng ti n hnh phn tch h i quy cho t ng ngnh trong m u nghin c u th y c s khc bi t c a cc nhn t tc c th . 3.2 C S D LI U n c u trc v n c a t ng ngnh

M u nghin c u bao g m s li u c a 246doanh nghi p nim trn hai sn giao d ch ch ng khon Thnh ph H Ch Minh (HOSE) v sn giao d ch ch ng khon H N i (HNX) trong th i k t nm 2006 2011. D li u nghin c u l d li u th c p thu c t bo co ti chnh hng nm c ki m ton c a 246doanh nghi p, cc doanh nghi p ny c chia thnh 07 ngnh theo phn ngnh c a website www.cophieu68.com bao g m: Bao b ng gi, b t ng s n, cng ngh v truy n thng, may m c, kinh doanh xng d u, d c ph m v xi mng. M u nghin c u khng bao g m cc doanh nghi p trong lnh v c ti chnh nh: ngn hng, b o hi m, ch ng khon. V cc doanh nghi p thu c lnh v c ny c k t c u bo cc ti chnh khc so v i cc ngnh khc.

27

B ng 3.1: Tm t t th ng k s cng ty, s quan st theo ngnh t nm 2006-2011 Ngnh Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n S l ng cng ty 18 166 15 7 18 5 17 246 S nm 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 S quan st 86 643 59 38 75 27 68 996

Cng ngh truy n thng Kinh doanh xng d u D c May m c Xi mng C NG Ngu n: Tc gi t ng h p

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p 3.3 M HNH H I QUY NGHIN C U Cn c vo cc l thuy t kinh i n v cc nghin c u th c nghi m v c u trc v n, t n t i m i tng quan ch t ch gi a c u trc v n v m t s nhn t . Trong nghin c u ny, tc gi xy d ng cc bi n s cho cc nhn t c tc trc v n c a doanh nghi p, ng nc u nc u ng th i t m i tng quan gi a cc nhn t

28

trc v n, xy d ng cc gi thuy t nghin c u, m hnh nghin c u ki m nhv nh gi tc ng c a chng

phn tch,

n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t

t i Vi t Nam. Cc m hnh nghin c u th c nghi m c tc gi v n d ng vo nghin c u bao g m: M hnh h i quy s d ng theo nghin c u c a Wang Mou (2011): LEV= + 1TANGit + 2RISKit + 3SIZEit + 4TAXit +5GROWTHit + 6PROFITit + 7LIQit + it M hnh h i quy s (2011): Leverage= + 1TW+ 2LP + 3JM + 4BC +5TAX + 6NDTS + 7PROF + 8SIZE + 9CVA + 10AGE + 11Dummy1 + 12Dummy2 + 13Dummy3 + 14Dummy1 + M hnh h i quy s d ng theo nghin c u c a Mary Hany A.K. Dawood v c ng s (2011): DE= + 1SZit + 2AGit + 3PRit + 4LQit +5CDt + 6BRit + 7INit + it T ba m hnh h i quy nu trn, tc gi v n d ng m hnh h i quy c a Wang Mou (2011) p d ng nghin c u cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam v i cc l do sau: M t l, Vi t Nam l qu c gia ang pht tri n c cc i u ki n v kinh t tng ng v i n n kinh t c a Trung Qu c. Hai l, cc nhn t tc trong cc n c trn th gi i. ng th i theo cc nghin c u c aMohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mary Hany A.K. Dawood v c ng s (2011)v Yan Xue (2007) cho th y r ng, ngnh c nh h ng thm bi n gi nghin c u xem li u c i m ngnh c nh h ng c i m n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p. V v y, tc gi s d ng n c u trc ng n c u trc v n c a cng ty m tc gi v n d ng h uh t ti c s d ng ph bi n trong cc nghin c u v c u trc v n d ng theo nghin c u c a Mohammad Abu Sayeed

v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam khng.

29

M hnh h i quy c tc gi

xu t s d ng:

LEV =o + 1TANG + 2RISK + 3SIZE+ 4NDTS + 5GROW + 6ROA + 7LIQ + 8Dummy1+9Dummy2+ 10Dummy3+ 11Dummy4+ 12Dummy5+ 13Dummy6+ LLEV=o + 1TANG + 2RISK + 3SIZE + 4NDTS + 5GROW + 6ROA + 7LIQ + 8Dummy1 + 9Dummy2+ 10Dummy3+ 11Dummy4+ 12Dummy5+ 13Dummy6+ SLEV=o + 1TANG + 2RISK + 3SIZE + 4NDTS + 5GROW + 6ROA + 7LIQ + 8Dummy1 + 9Dummy2+ 10Dummy3+ 11Dummy4+ 12Dummy5+ 13Dummy6+ Trong :
n b y ti chnh c o l ng b ng

:LEV: t ng n /t ng ti s n : LLEV: n di h n/t ng ti s n : SLEV: n ng n h n/t ng ti s n

Quy m doanh nghi p (SIZE) C h i tng tr ng (GROW) Kh nng sinh l i (ROA) R i ro kinh doanh (RISK) Tnh thanh kho n (LIQ) C u trc ti s n (TANG)

: logaritthm(t ng ti s n) :(t ng ti s n (t) t ng ti s n (t-1))/ t ng ti s n (t-1) : l i nhu n rng sau thu /t ng ti s n : %thay thu n : ti s n ng n h n/n ng n h n : ti s n c nh/t ng ti s n i EBIT/%thay i doanh thu

T m ch n thu t kh u hao (NDTS) : chi ph kh u hao/t ng ti s n n b y ti chnh c th khc nhau gi a cc ngnh (Myers, 1984),Mohammad Abu Sayeed (2011), Mary Hany A.K. Dawood v c ng s (2011) v Yan Xue (2007). Trong nghin c u ny, tc gi xem xt ngnh cng nghi p l m t trong cc

30

bi n khm ph c s d ng nh l bi n gi (Dummy)vc gi tr l 0 ho c 1 gi s d ng ngnh xi mng su bi n gi Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 c s d ng : Ngnh b t

di n cho cc ngnh.V c b y ngnh c phn lo i trong m u nghin c u v tc so snh s khc bi t v i cc ngnh cn l i.V v y, i di n cho cc ngnh khc bao g m: ng s n

: Ngnh bao b, ng gi : Ngnh cng ngh truy n thng : Ngnh kinh doanh xng d u : Ngnh d c : Ngnh may m c

3.4 CC GI THUY T NGHIN C U D a trn c s m c tiu nghin c u v m hnh nghin c u, c tm gi thuy t v cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t t i Vi t Nam.Gi thuy t th nh t v quy m doanh nghi p c a cc doanh nghi p.Gi thuy t th hai v c h i tng tr ng c a cc doanh nghi p.Gi thuy t th ba v kh nng sinh l i c a cc doanh nghi p. Ti p theo l gi thuy t v r i ro kinh doanh c a cc doanh nghi p, gi thuy t v tnh thanh kho n c a cc doanh nghi p, gi thuy t v c u trc ti s n c a cc doanh nghi p,gi thuy t v t m ch n thu t kh u hao c a cc doanh nghi p, v cu i cng l gi thuy t v c ki m c i m ngnh.Cc gi thuy t ny ng n c u trc v n nh m i nh nh m xem xt li u cc nhn t ny c tc

c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam khng?Hay ni cch khc l ki m thuy t ny c xy d ng lin quan ho c ch p nh n gi thuy t H0

tng quan gi a cc nhn t ny v i n b y ti chnh c a doanh nghi p.Cc gi n gi thuy t (H1) v gi thuy t (H0). T ch i u d a vo k t qu thu c c a bi nghin c u. Cc

gi thuy t nghin c u c trnh by tm t t qua b ng sau:

31

B ng 3.2 B ng tm t t cc gi thuy t nghin c u

Gi thuy t Gi thuy t 1 H0: Khng c m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a quy m doanh nghi p v n b y ti chnh ( BTC) H1: C m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a quy m doanh nghi p v BTC Gi thuy t 2 H0: Khng c m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a c h i tng tr ng v BTC H1: C m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a c h i tng tr ng v BTC Gi thuy t 3 H0: Khng c m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a kh nng sinh l i v BTC H1: C m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a kh nng sinh l i v BTC Gi thuy t 4 H0: Khng c m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a r i ro kinh doanh v BTC H1: C m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a r i ro kinh doanh v BTC Gi thuy t 5 H0: Khng c m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a tnh thanh kho n v BTC H1: C m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a tnh thanh kho n v BTC Gi thuy t 6 H0: Khng c m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a c u trc ti s n v BTC H1: C m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a c u trc ti s n v BTC Gi thuy t 7 H0: Khng c m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a t m ch n thu t kh u hao v BTC H1: C m i tng quan c ngha th ng k gi a t m ch n thu t kh u hao v BTC Gi thuy t 8 H0: n b y ti chnh khng c s khc bi t c ngha th ng kgi a cc ngnh H1: n b y ti chnh c s khc bi t c ngha th ng k gi a cc ngnh

K T LU N CHNG 3 Chng 3 t p trung khi qut phng php nghin c u, m u nghin c u, cch thu th p v x l d li u, m hnh nghin c u, cc gi thuy t gi a bi n ph thu c v bi n c. Bi n ph thu c l n b y ti chnh, trong khi bi n c l p l kh nng sinh l i, quy m doanh nghi p, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, c h i tng tr ng, r i ro kinh doanh, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v c i m ngnh.

32

CHNG 4 N I DUNG V K T QU NGHIN C U

4.1 K T QU

KI M

NH CC NHN T

TC

NG

N C U TRC

V N C A CNG TY NIM Y T T I VI T NAM ti n hnh ki m nh cc nhn t tc ng n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty c l p v bi n ph thu c l ch chu n c a c l p nh m xc

nim y t t i Vi t nam, tc gi ti n hnh cc b c sau: Th nh t: trnh by tm t t th ng k m t cc bi n xc t ng bi n. Th hai: trnh by ma tr n h s tng quan gi a cc bi n nh m i tng quan gi a cc bi n c l p nh th no v xem xt c hi n t ng a c l p b t k l n hn c l p khi c nh gi tr trung bnh, gi tr nh nh t v gi tri l n nh t,

c ng tuy n c kh nng x y ra trong m hnh h i quy hay khng. D u hi u x y ra hi n t ng a c ng tuy n l h s tng quan gi a hai bi n ho c b ng 0.9 hay h s phng lng tham s h i quy l n hn 10. Th ba: ti n hnh c l ng cc h s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy t ng th v m hnh h i quy gi i h n theo phng php bnh phng b nh t (OLS). Sau , tc gi ti n hnh ki m cc nhn t tc nh m hnh h i quy gi i h n kh ng nh tnh ph h p xc nh c a cc m hnh ny v i m c ngha 5%. Ti p theo ti n hnh c l ng tham s ng c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t theo ngnh cc nhn t no c ngha th ng k c a t ng ngnh v tm ra s khc bi t c a cc nhn t ny gi a cc ngnh. 4.1.1 M t th ng k cc bi n c l p v n b y ti chnh T qu trnh thu th p, tnh ton s li u v a vo m hnh c a 246 doanh nghi p nim y t t i Vi t Nam trong giai o n t nm 2006 th ng k m t cc bi n ph thu c v n nm 2011. K t qu c l p c trnh by tm t t nh sau: i phng sai (VIF) c a t ng bi n

33

B ng 4.1: Tm t t th ng k m t cc bi n ph thu c
Ch tiu T ng n /t ng ti s n (LEV) N di h n/t ng ti s n (LLEV) N ng n h n/t ng ti s n (SLEV)

S quan st Gi tr nh nh t Gi tr l n nh t Trung bnh l ch chu n Skewness Kurtosis

996 0.0284 0.9728 0.5962 0.2161 -0.6420 -0.3871

996 0.0000 0.6895 0.1150 0.1405 1.6179 2.2379

996 0.0211 0.9640 0.4825 0.2099 -0.1437 -0.8008

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p T l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n bnh qun (SLEV) l 48.25%. Trong cao nh t l 96.40% (Cng ty C ph n Y D c ph m Vimedimex) v th p nh t l 2.11% (Cng ty C ph n ti tr n tng u t pht tri n h t ng IDICO). Ngu n ti tr ny cao hn nhi u so v i t l n di h n. i u ny cho th y r ng, n ng n h n l m t ngu n i nhi u c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam. T l n ng n h n n ph s n ho c thi u h t ngu n ti n cao lm gia tng r i ro cho cc cng ty n u dng ti n thu v khng nh d tnh, gy kh khn v tnh thanh kho n v c th d n ti tr cho ho t ng th ng xuyn c a cc cng ty. u t Nm B y B y) v u t v S n

T l n di h n trn t ng ti s n bnh qun (LLEV) c a doanh nghi p l 11.50%. Trong cao nh t l 68.95% (Cng ty C ph n xu t Vi t Hn, Cng ty C ph n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i vi t Nam th p nh t l 0% (Cng ty C ph n Cp Si Gn, Cng ty C ph n

u t v Pht tri n Cng ngh Vn Lang, Cng m c th p. Vi c t s d ng cc ngu n ti tr

ty C ph n D c ph m D c Li u Pharmedic ). T l n di h n trn t ng ti s n

34

mang tnh di h n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam, tc gi cho r ng m t l do quan tr ng l do khi m khuy t c a b n thn th tr ng ti chnh v thi quen cng nh m c hi u bi t c a doanh nghi p v lo i hnh ny. 27) v th p nh t l 2.84% T l t ng n trn t ng ti s n bnh qun (LEV) c a doanh nghi p l 59.62%. Trong cao nh t l 97.29% (Cng ty c ph n Sng (Cng ty C ph n S n xu t Kinh doanh D c v Trang thi t b Y t Vi t M ). T l ny cng cao s lm gia tng p l c thanh ton n cho cc doanh nghi p. l ch chu n th hi n m c phn tn cc gi tr c a t l t ng n trn t ng l ch chu n ti s n (LEV), n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV) v t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (SLEV) so v i gi tr trung bnh c a chnh n. Trong b ng 4.7 c a LEV, LLEV, SLEV l n l t l 0.2161, 0.1405 v 0.2099. Gi tr skewess v kurtosis dng xc nh xem cc bi n c phn ph i chu n u nh . khng, m t bi n c phn ph i chu n khi gi tr c a skewess l 0 v kurtosis l 3. B ng 4.1 cho th y cc gi tr c a skewess v kurtosis B ng 4.2: Tm t t th ng k m t cc bi n
Ch tiu S quan st Gi tr nh nh t Gi tr l n nh t Trung bnh l ch chu n Skewness Kurtosis SIZE
996 9.6578 13.5504 11.5924 0.5762 0.1406 0.4260

cl p
LIQ
996 0.2326 18.2704 1.8290 1.7230 5.1756 36.1680

ROA
996 -0.2092 0.5097 0.0586 0.0576 1.4255 8.4944

TANG
996 0.0003 0.8976 0.2383 0.1825 1.0664 0.7803

NDTS
996 0.0002 0.2160 0.0267 0.0254 2.0118 7.1450

GROW
996 -0.3981 13.6292 0.3856 0.8730 8.5203 101.1789

RISK
996 0.0482 15.8456 0.1296 1.4343 -0.6298 56.3018

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

35

Quy m doanh nghi p (SIZE) th hi n qua b ng 4.2 c gi tr trung bnh l 11.59, gi tr cao nh t l 13.55 (T p on Vingroup - Cng ty C ph n) v th p nh t l 9.66 (Cng ty c ph n hnh nh doanh nghi p nh . T su t sinh l i trn ti s n (ROA) c a cc doanh nghi p bnh qun l 5.86%. Gi tr cao nh t c a ROA l 50.97% (T p on Vingroup Cng ty c ph n) v th p nh t l -20.92% (Cng ty c ph n nh a Tn Ha). Kh nng sinh l i (ROA) trung bnh kh th p i u ny cho th y hi u qu s d ng v n cha cao, tc gi cho r ng i u ny c th l do nh h ng c a cu c kh ng ho ng ti chnh ko di, gy kh khn cho cc ho t Ti s n c ng kinh doanh c a doanh nghi p. u t & Thng m i D u kh Ngh An) u t B t ng s n Vi t Nam). Cc doanh nh c th lm nh trn t ng ti s n (TANG) c a cc doanh nghi p bnh qun u t-S n xu t v Thng m i Vi t Nam). Theo m i c u trc v n, doanh nghi p l n c kh nng vay n cao hn cc

23.83%, cao nh t l 89.76% (Cng ty CP v nh nh t 0.03% (Cng ty C ph n v t th ch p khi vay m n.

nghi p c TANG l n s c kh nng vay n cao hn v ti s n c

Tnh thanh kho n (LIQ) trung bnh l 1.83 l n, trong cao nh t l 18.27 l n (Cng ty c ph n k ngh nng Thnh) v th p nh t l 0.23 (Cng ty c ph n u t v thng m i d u kh Ngh An). T l ny tng i cao v cho th y r ng kh

m b o thanh ton n ng n h n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam. T m ch n thu t kh u hao (NDTS) c a cc doanh nghi p bnh qun l 2.67%,

cao nh t l 21.60% v th p nh t l 0.02%. C h i tng tr ng (GROW) bnh qun l 38.56%. Trong cao nh t l 13.63 l n (Cng ty c ph n d c ph m Vi n ph n Song 1). R i ro kinh doanh (RISK) trung bnh 12.96%. Trong , cao nh t l 15.85 (Cng ty C ph n Sng Ha). 7) v th p nh t 4.82% (Cng ty C ph n Nh a Tn ng) v th p nh t l -39.81% (Cng ty c

36

4.1.2 Ma tr n h s tng quan gi a cc bi n B ng 4.3: Ma tr n h s tng quan gi a cc bi n

SIZE SIZE Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) ROA Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) TANG Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) LIQ Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) NDTS Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) GROW Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) RISK Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) -0.10 0.00 -0.04 0.26 -0.12 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.05 0.13 -0.08 0.02 0.17 0.00 0.09 0.01 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.07 0.02 0.33 0.00 -0.07 0.04 -0.03 0.43 -0.06 0.06 0.04 0.18 0.00 0.96 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 0.04 0.03 0.33 1.00 ROA -0.10 0.00 1.00 TANG -0.04 0.26 -0.08 0.02 1.00

cl p
LIQ -0.12 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.07 0.02 1.00 NDTS -0.25 0.00 0.09 0.01 0.33 0.00 -0.06 0.06 1.00 GROW 0.00 0.89 0.11 0.00 -0.07 0.04 0.04 0.18 -0.15 0.00 1.00 RISK 0.05 0.13 0.11 0.00 -0.03 0.43 0.00 0.96 -0.06 0.04 0.03 0.33 1.00

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p B ng 4.3 cho th y m i tng quan ring gi a cc bi n c l p v i nhau khng cao. Gi tr cao nh t l 0.33 (gi a c u trc ti s n v t m ch n thu t kh u hao) v th p nh t l 0.00 (gi a quy m doanh nghi p v c h i tng tr ng). Ngoi ra cc

37

gi tr khc l -0.25 (quy m doanh nghi p v t m ch n thu t kh u hao), 0.17 (gi a kh nng sinh l i v tnh thanh kho n), 0.11 (gi a kh nng sinh l i v c h i tng tr ng) v 0.11 (gi a kh nng sinh l i v r i ro kinh doanh). V v y, h s tng quan gi a cc bi n c l p r t nh i u ny cho th y cha c d u hi u x y ra hi n t ng a c ng tuy n trong m hnh nghin c u. 4.1.3 c l ng cc tham s h i quy 4.1.3.1 c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy t ng th Phng php s d ng ph bi n nh t l phng php bnh phng b nh t (OSL) g m: - T l t ng n trn t ng ti s n (LEV) - T l n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV) - T l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (SLEV) Sau y, tc gi ti n hnh c l ng cc tham s h i quy cho t ng m hnh h i quy t ng th b ng ph n m m SPSS c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy t ng th : t ng n trn t ng ti s n LEV = o + 1TANG + 2RISK + 3SIZE + 4NDTS + 5GROW + 6ROA + 7LIQ + 8Dummy1 + 9Dummy2+ 10Dummy3+ 11Dummy4+ 12Dummy5+ 13Dummy6 + (4.1) c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy. M hnh h i quy t ng th c a n b y ti chnh c ti n hnh c l ng bao

K t qu c l ng t chng trnh SPSS nh sau:

38

B ng 4.4: Tc
Model (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6

ng cc bi n

cl p

n t ng n trn t ng ti s n
Standardized Coefficients Beta 1.246 6.497 -12.851 -4.226 -19.666 2.506 2.585 0.566 -4.515 -2.405 -4.425 0.784 -3.516 -0.360 0.213 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.010 0.572 0.000 0.016 0.000 0.433 0.000 0.719 0.739 0.545 0.539 1.898 90.654 996 t Sig.

Unstandardized Coefficients B 0.134 0.058 -1.133 -0.130 -0.057 0.525 0.014 0.002 -0.111 -0.058 -0.124 0.016 -0.091 -0.012 Std. Error 0.108 0.009 0.088 0.031 0.003 0.210 0.005 0.003 0.025 0.024 0.028 0.021 0.026 0.034

0.154 -0.302 -0.110 -0.456 0.062 0.057 0.012 -0.144 -0.093 -0.136 0.037 -0.111 -0.009

R R square Adjusted R Square Durbin Watson F-statistic (v i Sig.=0.000) S quan st

Ngu n: tc t t ng h p Theo k t qu c l ng t b ng 4.4, c su bi n

c l p c ngha th ng k.

l cc bi n quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v c h i tng tr ng. Trong t m ch n thu t kh u hao c ngha m c 5%, cn l i c ngha m c 1%. R i ro kinh doanh khng c ngha th ng k. h ng l n i v i s thay c bi t, h s Beta chu n ha c a kh nng sinh l i l i c a t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n.

-0.302 v c a tnh thanh kho n l -0.456, i u ny cho th y hai bi n ny c nh Ngoi ra, c th th y c s khc bi t c ngha th ng k trong h s t ng n trn t ng ti s n gi a ngnh xi mng so v i cc ngnh cn l i ngo i tr ngnh kinh doanh xng d u (Dummy4) v ngnh may m c (Dummy6).

39

H s Durbin Watson l 1.898 g n b ng 2 ch ng t r ng khng x y ra hi n t ng t tng quan trong m hnh h i quy (4.1) c l ng cc tham m hnh h i quy t ng th : n di h n trn t ng ti s n LLEV = o + 1TANG + 2RISK + 3SIZE + 4NDTS + 5GROW + 6ROA + 7LIQ + 8Dummy1 + 9Dummy2+ 10Dummy3+ 11Dummy4+ 12Dummy5+ 13Dummy6 + (4.2)

K t qu c l ng t chng trnh SPSS nh sau: B ng 4.5: Tc

Model (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6

ng cc bi n

cl p

n n di h n trn t ng ti s n
Standardized Coefficients Beta 0.298 -0.164 0.519 0.100 -0.035 0.050 0.012 -0.165 0.040 -0.119 -0.091 -0.194 -0.047 -10.121 11.473 -6.351 18.106 3.920 -1.300 2.055 0.508 -4.694 0.928 -3.510 -1.743 -5.609 -1.684 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.194 0.040 0.611 0.000 0.354 0.000 0.082 0.000 0.092 0.671 0.450 0.443 1.951 61.761 996 t Sig.

Unstandardized Coefficients B -0.781 0.073 -0.400 0.399 0.008 -0.195 0.008 0.001 -0.083 0.016 -0.071 -0.026 -0.103 -0.040 Std. Error 0.077 0.006 0.063 0.022 0.002 0.150 0.004 0.002 0.018 0.017 0.020 0.015 0.018 0.024

R R square Adjusted R Square Durbin Watson F-statistic (gi tr Sig. =0.000) S quan st

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

40

N u quan st gi tr c a Sig. c a cc h s h i quy c a cc bi n b ng 4.5, c nm bi n c l p c ngha th ng k.

cl pt

l cc bi n quy m doanh m c 1%.

nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v c h i tng tr ng. Trong , c h i tng tr ng c ngha doanh. m c 5%, cn l i c ngha C hai bi n khng c ngha th ng k l t m ch n thu t kh u hao v r i ro kinh c bi t, quy m doanh nghi p v ti s n c n s thay nh c h s beta chu n ha l n l t l 0.298, 0.519 l cao kh cao so v i cc bi n cn l i, v th hai bi n ny c nh h ng l n i c a t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n. Ngoi ra, k t qu cng cho th y c s khc bi t c ngha th ng k trong h s n di h n trn t ng ti s n gi a ngnh xi mng so v i cc ngnh cn l i ngo i tr ngnh b t ng s n (Dummy2). H s Durbin Watson l 1.951 g n b ng 2 ch ng t r ng khng x y ra hi n t ng t tng quan trong m hnh h i quy (4.2).

c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy t ng th : n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n SLEV = o + 1TANG + 2RISK + 3SIZE + 4NDTS + 5GROW + 6ROA + 7LIQ + 8Dummy1 + 9Dummy2 + 10Dummy3 + 11Dummy4 + 12Dummy5 + 13Dummy6 + (4.3)

K t qu c l ng t chng trnh SPSS nh sau:

41

B ng 4.6: Tc
Model

ng cc bi n

cl p

n n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n
Standardized Coefficients Beta 9.341 -0.036 -0.210 -0.472 -0.542 0.084 0.026 0.004 -0.046 -0.142 -0.073 0.074 0.023 0.018 -1.622 -9.635 -19.585 -25.261 3.677 1.254 0.220 -1.564 -3.946 -2.558 1.675 0.796 0.756 0.000 0.105 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.210 0.826 0.118 0.000 0.011 0.094 0.426 0.450 0.781 0.610 0.605 1.864 118.020 996 t Sig.

Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 0.907 -0.013 -0.764 -0.543 -0.066 0.694 0.006 0.001 -0.035 -0.086 -0.065 0.031 0.018 0.023 0.097 0.008 0.079 0.028 0.003 0.189 0.005 0.003 0.022 0.022 0.025 0.019 0.023 0.030

(Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 R R square Adjusted R Square Durbin Watson

F-statistic (gi tr Sig. = 0.000) S quan st

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

42

T b ng 4.6 cho th y r ng c b n bi n hao. Trong , cc bi n ny u c ngha

c l p c ngha th ng k.

l cc

bi n kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v t m ch n thu t kh u m c 1%. Quy m doanh nghi p, r i ro kinh doanh v c h i tng tr ng khng c ngha th ng k. Bn c nh , h s beta chu n ha c a kh nng sinh l i l -0.210, c u trc ti s n l -0.472 v tnh thanh kho n l -0.542. thay i u ny c ngha l ba bi n c l p ny nh h ng l n ns i c a t l n ng n h n tr n t ng ti s n. Ngoi ra, k t qu cng cho th y c s khc bi t c ngha th ng k trong h s n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n gi a ngnh xi mng so v i cc ngnh cn l i ngo i tr ngnh bao b ng gi (Dummy1), ngnh d c (Dummy5) v ngnh may m c (Dummy6). H s Durbin Watson l 1.864 g n b ng 2 cho th y r ng khng x y ra hi n t ng t tng quan trong m hnh h i quy (4.3). 4.1.3.2 c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n ki m tra m c ph h p c a t ng bi n c l p trong m hnh h i quy t ng th , tc gi s d ng k thu t ch n bi n theo phng php lo i tr d n (backward elimination) trong SPSS nh m a vo m hnh nh ng bi n c kh nng gi i thch s bi n ng c a n b y ti chnh v lo i ra nh ng bi n c l p khng c m i s c m ng c a n b y tng quan v i n b y ti chnh kh i m hnh h i quy t ng th . T hnh h i quy gi i h n v i cc bi n c kh nng gi i thch s bi n ti chnh. Tng t nh c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh t ng th , c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh gi i h n c th c hi n trn ba h s c a n b y ti chnh: - T l t ng n trn t ng ti s n (LEV) - T l n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV) - T l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (SLEV) c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n: t ng n trn t ng ti s n

43

K t qu c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n, s d ng k thu t ch n bi n theo phng php lo i tr d n (backward elimination) cc bi n khng ph h p ra kh i m hnh h i quy t ng th (4.1) nh sau: B ng 4.7: Tc h i quy gi i h n
Model Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy5 R R square Adjusted R Square Durbin Watson F-statistic (gi tr Sig. = 0.000) S quan st 0.154 0.057 -1.152 -0.145 -0.057 0.524 0.014 -0.122 -0.073 -0.138 -0.102 Std. Error 0.104 0.009 0.087 0.028 0.003 0.209 0.005 0.018 0.015 0.021 0.019 0.153 -0.307 -0.122 -0.457 0.062 0.058 -0.159 -0.117 -0.151 -0.125 Standardized Coefficients Beta 1.479 6.498 -13.280 -5.186 -19.782 2.504 2.621 -6.869 -4.881 -6.738 -5.369 0.139 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.738 0.545 0.540 1.894 117.859 996 t Sig.

lo i

ng cc bi n

cl p

n t ng n trn t ng ti s n c a m hnh

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

44

M hnh h i quy gi i h n: t ng n trn t ng ti s n c vi t l i nh sau: LEV = 0.154 - 0.145TANG + 0.057SIZE + 0.524NDTS + 0.014GROW 1.152ROA 0.057LIQ - 0.122Dummy1 0.073Dummy2 - 0.138Dummy3 0.102Dummy5 (4.4)

Theo k t qu c l ng t b ng 4.7 cho th y r i ro kinh doanh, bi n gi Dummy4 (kinh doanh xng d u) v Dummy6 (may m c) b lo i ra kh i m hnh h i quy t ng th (4.1). i u ny c ngha l cha c b ng ch ng cho th y bi n r i ro ng c a t l t ng n trn t ng ti kinh doanh c kh nng gi i thch cho s bi n

s n v h s ny khng c s khc bi t gi a ngnh xi mng so v i ngnh kinh doanh xng d u v ngnh may m c. L do cc bi n ny b lo i l do gi tr th ng k F c a cc bi n ny nh hn gi tr m c Su bi n c l p cn l i nh c l i trong m hnh l 2.71. l cc bi n quy m u c ngha th ng k.

doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v c h i tng tr ng. Trong t m ch n thu t kh u hao c ngha m c 5%, cn l i c ngha l n i v i s thay m c 1%. c bi t, h s Beta chu n ha c a kh nng sinh l i l -0.307 v c a tnh thanh kho n l -0.457 nn hai bi n ny c nh h ng i c a t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n. ng Ngoi ra, c th th y c s khc bi t c ngha th ng k trong h s t ng n trn t ng ti s n gi a ngnh xi mng so v i cc ngnh: bao b ng gi; b t s n; cng ngh truy n thng v ngnh d c. H s Durbin Watson l 1.894 g n b ng 2 ch ng t r ng khng x y ra hi n t ng t tng quan trong m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.4) c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n: n di h n trn t ng ti s n K t qu c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n, s d ng k thu t ch n bi n theo phng php lo i tr d n (backward elimination) nh ng bi n khng ph h p ra kh i m hnh h i quy t ng th (4.2) nh sau: lo i

45

B ng 4.8: Tc

ng cc bi n

cl p

n n di h n trn t ng ti s n c a m

hnh h i quy gi i h n
Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ GROW Dummy1 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 R R square Adjusted R Square Durbin Watson F-statistic (gi tr Sig. = 0.000) S quan st -0.799 0.075 -0.412 0.383 0.008 0.009 -0.095 -0.082 -0.037 -0.114 -0.050 Std. Error 0.075 0.006 0.062 0.020 0.002 0.004 0.014 0.016 0.009 0.015 0.022 0.308 -0.169 0.498 0.104 0.055 -0.190 -0.137 -0.132 -0.215 -0.058 Standardized Coefficients Beta -10.627 12.190 -6.646 19.553 4.079 2.314 -6.722 -5.198 -4.095 -7.855 -2.268 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.024 0.669 0.448 0.443 1.953 79.994 996

Model

Sig.

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

46

M hnh h i quy gi i h n: di h n trn t ng ti s n c vi t l i nh sau: LLEV= -0.799 + 0.383TANG + 0.075SIZE + 0.009GROW - 0.412ROA + 0.008LIQ - 0.095Dummy1 - 0.082Dummy3 - 0.037Dummy4 - 0.114Dummy5 0.050Dummy6 (4.5) ng s n) b lo i ra kh i m hnh h i quy t ng ng c a t l n di Theo k t qu c l ng t b ng 4.8 cho th y t m ch n thu t kh u hao, r i ro kinh doanh v bi n gi Dummy2 (b t th (4.2). i u ny c ngha l cha c b ng ch ng cho th y bi n t m ch n thu t

kh u hao, r i ro kinh doanh c kh nng gi i thch cho s bi n ngnh b t

h n trn t ng ti s n v h s ny khng c khc bi t gi a ngnh xi mng so v i ng s n. L do cc bi n ny b lo i l do gi tr th ng k F c a cc bi n nh c l i trong m hnh l 2.71. l cc bi n quy m c l p cn l i u c ngha th ng k. ny nh hn gi tr m c Nm bi n

doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v c h i tng tr ng. Trong , c h i tng tr ng c ngha m c 1%. n s thay c bi t, quy m doanh nghi p v ti s n c i c a t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n. m c 5%, cn l i c ngha nh c h s beta chu n ha

l n l t l 0.308, 0.498 l cao kh cao, v th hai bi n ny c nh h ng quan tr ng Ngoi ra, k t qu cng cho th y c s khc bi t c ngha th ng k trong h s n di h n trn t ng ti s n gi a ngnh xi mng so v i cc ngnh: bao b ng gi; cng ngh truy n thng; kinh doanh xng d u; d c v ngnh may m c. H s Durbin Watson l 1.953 g n b ng 2 ch ng t r ng khng x y ra hi n t ng t tng quan trong m hnh h i quy (4.5). c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n: n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n K t qu c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n, s d ng k thu t ch n bi n theo phng php lo i tr d n (backward elimination) nh ng bi n khng ph h p ra kh i m hnh h i quy t ng th (4.3) nh sau: lo i

47

B ng 4.9: Tc

ng cc bi n

cl p

n n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n c a m

hnh h i quy gi i h n
M hnh Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 R R square Adjusted R Square Durbin Watson F-statistic (gi tr Sig. = 0.000) S quan st 0.956 -0.014 -0.773 -0.562 -0.067 0.649 -0.059 -0.114 -0.093 Std. Error 0.094 0.008 0.075 0.025 0.003 0.186 0.016 0.013 0.018 -0.039 -0.212 -0.488 -0.547 0.079 -0.079 -0.189 -0.105 Standardized Coefficients Beta 10.222 -1.778 -10.254 -22.425 -26.278 3.489 -3.729 -8.618 -5.081 0.000 0.076 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.780 0.608 0.605 1.860 191.217 996 t Sig.

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p M hnh h i quy gi i h n: n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n c vi t l i nh sau: SLEV = 0.956 - 0.562TANG - 0.014SIZE + 0.649NDTS - 0.773ROA 0.067LIQ - 0.059Dummy1 - 0.114Dummy2 - 0.093Dummy3 (4.6) Theo k t qu c l ng t b ng 4.9 cho th y c h i tng tr ng, r i ro kinh doanh v bi n gi Dummy4 (kinh doanh xng d u), Dummy5 (d c) v Dummy6 (may m c) b lo i ra kh i m hnh h i quy t ng th (4.3). i u ny c ngha l cha

48

c b ng ch ng cho th y c h i tng tr ng, r i ro kinh doanh c kh nng gi i thch cho s bi n ng c a t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n v h s ny khng c s khc bi t gi a ngnh xi mng so v i ngnh kinh doanh xng d u, ngnh d c v ngnh may m c. L do cc bi n ny b lo i l do gi tr th ng k F c a cc bi n ny nh hn gi tr m c Nm bi n nh c l i trong m hnh l 2.71. u c ngha th ng k. l cc bi n quy m m c 10%, cn i u ny c l p cn l i

doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v t m ch n thu t kh u hao. Trong , quy m doanh nghi p c ngha th ng k l i c ngha th ng k c ngha l ba bi n tr n t ng ti s n. H s Durbin Watson l 1.860 g n b ng 2 cho th y r ng khng x y ra hi n t ng t tng quan trong m hnh h i quy (4.6). 4.1.4 Ki m ki m nh lin quan d i y. nh gi thuy t v kh nng gi i thch c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n nh tnh ph h p c a m hnh h i quy, tc gi p d ng th t c ki m n gi thuy t H0 v H1 c trnh by i v i m i m hnh h i quy nh F nh m ch p nh n nh ny, tc gi s d ng ki m m c 1%. Bn c nh , h s beta chu n ha c a kh nng n s thay i c a t l n ng n h n

sinh l i l -0.212, c u trc ti s n l -0.488 v tnh thanh kho n l -0.547. c l p ny nh h ng l n

th c hi n ki m

hay bc b gi thuy t H0. N u gi tr (Sig.) c a th ng k F l n hn m c ngha xc nh th ch p nh n gi thuy t H0, ng c l i bc b gi thuy t H0. Ki m Ki m nh gi thuy t th 1 nh kh nng gi i thch c a m hnh c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.4)

Gi thuy t H0 : 1 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 6 = 7 = 8 = 9 = 10 = 12 = 0 [khng ch n m hnh gi i h n (4.4)] K t qu ki m nh t b ng 4.7 cho th y r ng: Gi tr Sig c a th ng k F l 0.000 < 0.05 nn bc b gi thuy t H0, v y m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.4) c ch p nh n. H s (R2) c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.4) l 54.5%. i u ny c ngha l 54.5% s thay i c a t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n c th c gi i thch b ng s nh h ng c a cc bi n c l p trong m hnh h i quy (4.4).

49

Ki m Ki m

nh gi thuy t th 2 nh kh nng gi i thch c a m hnh c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.5)

Gi thuy t H0 : 1 = 3 = 5 = 6 = 7 = 8 = 10 = 11 = 12 = 13 = 0 [khng ch n m hnh gi i h n (4.5)] K t qu ki m nh t b ng 4.8 cho th y r ng: Gi tr Sig c a th ng k F l 0.000 < 0.05 nn bc b gi thuy t H0, v y m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.5) c ch p nh n H s (R2) c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.5) l 44.8%. 44.8% s thay s Ki m Ki m i c a t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n c th c l p trong m hnh h i quy (4.5). nh h ng c a cc bi n i u ny c ngha l c gi i thch b ng

nh gi thuy t th 3 nh kh nng gi i thch c a m hnh c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.6)

Gi thuy t H0 : 1 = 3 = 4 = 6 = 7 = 8 = 9 = 10 = 0 [khng ch n m hnh gi i h n (4.6)] K t qu ki m nh t b ng 4.9 cho th y r ng: Gi tr Sig c a th ng k F l 0.000 < 0.05 nn bc b gi thuy t H0, v y m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.6) c ch p nh n H s (R2) c a m hnh h i quy gi i h n (4.6) l 60.8%. 60.8% s thay b ng s nh h ng c a cc bi n phn tch cc nhn t tc tc i u ny c ngha l c gi i thch i c a t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n c th c l p trong m hnh h i quy (4.6). ng n c u trc v n c a t ng ngnh trong m u nh cc nhn t ng c nh xem cc nhn t no tc

4.1.5 K t qu c l ng cc tham s h i quy theo ngnh nghin c u, tc gi ti n hnh phn tch n b y ti chnh v ki m ng ring theo t ng ngnh nh m xc n n b y ti chnh. ngha th ng k

Tng t nh c l ng cc tham s h i quy c a m hnh t ng th , c l ng cc tham s h i quy theo ngnh cng th c hi n trn ba h s c a n b y ti chnh: - T l t ng n trn t ng ti s n (LEV) - T l n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV)

50

- T l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (SLEV) Phng php s d ng ph bi n nh t l phng php bnh phng b nh t (OSL) c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy theo t ng ngnh. c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy t ng th : t ng n trn t ng ti s n K t qu c l ng t chng trnh SPSS nh sau: B ng 4.10: K t qu h i quy theo ngnh. Bi n ph thu c: t ng n trn t ng ti s n
Ngnh Bao b, B t ng ng gi s n C ng ngh truy n thng
-0.017 0.060 -0.395 -0.630 -0.062 1.992 0.022 0.011 0.567 0.508 2.418 9.543 59
**

Kinh doanh xng d u

D c

May m c

Xi mng

(Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK R2 Adjusted R2

Durbin Watson

-0.160 0.066 -0.640 -0.051 -0.061 0.556 0.133 0.012 0.644 0.613 2.335 20.196 86
*** *** ***

0.256 0.050 -1.229 -0.160 -0.072 0.863 0.015 0.004

**

0.051 0.061 -0.566 -0.367 -0.093 -0.052 0.023 0.041 0.871 0.842 2.408 29.066 38
***

1.577 -0.074 -1.298 -0.056 -0.045 -0.749 -0.004 0.081

**

1.845 -0.062

-0.186 0.088
*** **

***

***

***

-3.547 -0.357

-1.884 -0.043 -0.056 -0.807 0.087

***

***

**

***

***

***

***

***

-0.123 -0.004 0.080

***

***

**

***

0.064

0.015 0.639 0.597 2.210 15.172 68

0.396 0.389 1.659 59.396 643

0.545 0.498 2.066 11.487 75

0.732 0.634 2.411 7.427 27

F-statistic S quan st

***, **, *: c ngha l n l t Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

m c 1%, 5%, 10%

51

T b ng 4.10 cho th y cc nhn t tc n trn t ng ti s n nh sau:

ng c ngha th ng k

n t l t ng

- Ngnh bao b ng gi: kh nng sinh l i, tnh thanh kho n v c h i tng tr ng v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh b t ng s n: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao c m c ngha 1% v c h i tng tr ng (m c ngha 5%). - Ngnh cng ngh truy n thng: quy m doanh nghi p, c u trc ti s n v i m c ngha 5% v tnh thanh kho n (m c ngha 1%). - Ngnh kinh doanh xng d u: kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n v tnh thanh kho n v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh d c: kh nng sinh l i, tnh thanh kho n, v r i ro kinh doanh v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh may m c: kh nng sinh l i (m c ngha 1%), c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, v r i ro kinh doanh v i m c ngha 10%. - Ngnh xi mng: quy m doanh nghi p (m c ngha 5%), kh nng sinh l i, tnh thanh kho n v i m c ngha 1%. V y, Cc nhn t c tc c tc ng ph bi n ng n t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n gi a cc h u h t cc ngnh. ngnh khc nhau l khc nhau. Bn c nh , kh nng sinh l i v tnh thanh kho n n t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n

c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy t ng th : n di h n trn t ng ti s n K t qu c l ng t chng trnh SPSS nh sau:

52

B ng 4.11: K t qu h i quy theo ngnh. Bi n ph thu c: n di h n trn t ng ti s n

Ngnh Bao b, B t ng ng gi s n C ng ngh truy n thng
-0.271
*

Kinh doanh xng d u

D c

May m c

Xi mng

(Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK R2

-0.665

***

-0.946

***

0.129

0.148

0.094

-1.444

***

0.063

***

0.082

***

0.028

**

-0.002

-0.012

0.018

0.126

***

-0.289

***

-0.360

***

0.179

-0.446

***

-0.218

-2.413

**

-1.153

***

0.187

***

0.438

***

0.446

***

-0.261

**

0.357

***

0.232

0.419

***

-0.009

***

0.031

***

-0.008

**

-0.008

-0.001

0.069

0.036

***

0.087

-0.114

-3.552

***

4.764

***

-1.054

**

-3.384

**

-0.433

0.048

***

0.002

-0.008

-0.016

-0.002

0.031

0.162

***

0.002

0.001

0.004

0.007

0.041

***

0.014

0.018

0.535

0.416

0.420

0.540

0.470

0.516

0.760

Adjusted R2

0.493

0.410

0.340

0.433

0.415

0.338

0.732

Durbin Watson

2.077

1.884

2.584

1.855

2.158

2.563

2.162

F-statistic

12.812

64.606

5.277

5.041

8.502

2.894

27.102

S quan st

86

643

59

38

75

27

68

***, **, *: c ngha l n l t Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

m c 1%, 5%, 10%

53

T b ng 4.11 cho th y r ng cc nhn t tc n di h n trn t ng ti s n nh sau:

ng c ngha th ng k

nt l

- Ngnh bao b ng gi: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v c h i tng tr ng v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh b t ng s n: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh cng ngh truy n thng: quy m doanh nghi p, tnh thanh kho n v i m c ngha 5%. C u trc ti s n v t m ch n thu t kh u hao v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh kinh doanh xng d u: kh nng sinh l i v t m ch n thu t kh u hao v i m c ngha 1%. C u trc ti s n (m c ngha 5%). - Ngnh d c: c u trc ti s n v r i ro kinh doanh v i m c ngha 1%. T m ch n thu t kh u hao (m c ngha 5%) - Ngnh may m c: kh nng sinh l i v t m ch n thu t kh u hao v i m c ngha 5%. - Ngnh xi mng: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v c h i tng tr ng v i m c ngha 1%. V y, cc nhn t tc c u trc ti s n c tc cc ngnh. c l ng cc tham s c a m hnh h i quy t ng th : n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n K t qu c l ng t chng trnh SPSS nh sau: ng c ngha th ng k n t l n di h n trn t ng h uh t ti s n gi a cc ngnh khc nhau l khc nhau. Bn c nh , kh nng sinh l i v ng ph bi n n t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n

54

B ng 4.12: K t qu h i quy theo ngnh. Bi n ph thu c: n ng n h n trn t ng

ti s n
Ngnh Bao b, B t ng ng gi s n C ng ngh truy n thng
0.254

Kinh doanh xng d u

D c

May m c

Xi mng

0.506

1.202

***

-0.078

0.688

1.751

1.350

***

(Constant)
0.003 -0.032
***

0.032

0.063

0.007

-0.079

-0.044

SIZE
-0.352
*

-0.869

***

-0.574

-0.121

-1.523

***

-1.135

-0.856

***

ROA
-0.238
**

-0.598

***

-1.076

***

-0.106

-0.484

***

-0.589 *** -0.477

***

TANG
-0.051
***

-0.103

***

-0.054

***

-0.084

***

-0.041

***

-0.192 *** -0.092

***

LIQ
0.469 0.976
***

5.544

***

-4.816

**

0.491

3.380

***

-0.496

NDTS
0.086
**

0.013

**

0.030

0.039

0.000

0.049

-0.076

GROW RISK R2
0.010 0.005 0.007 0.048 0.038 0.050
*

0.004

0.564

0.566

0.608

0.784

0.671

0.814

0.788

Adjusted R2

0.525

0.561

0.554

0.733

0.637

0.746

0.764

Durbin Watson

2.269

1.684

2.011

2.400

2.212

2.312

2.059

F-statistic S quan st

14.435

118.333

11.301

15.518

19.564

11.909

31.915

86

643

59

38

75

27

68

***, **, *: c ngha l n l t Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

m c 1%, 5%, 10% ng c ngha th ng k nt l

T b ng 4.12 cho th y r ng cc nhn t tc n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n nh sau:

55

- Ngnh bao b ng gi: kh nng sinh l i (m c ngha 10%), c u trc ti s n, v c h i tng tr ng v i m c ngha 5%. Tnh thanh kho n (m c ngha 1%). - Ngnh b t ng s n: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v i m c ngha 1% v c h i tng tr ng (m c ngha 5%). - Ngnh cng ngh truy n thng: kh nng sinh l i (m c ngha 10%) v c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh kinh doanh xng d u: tnh thanh kho n (m c ngha 1%) v t m ch n thu t kh u hao (m c ngha 5%). - Ngnh d c: kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v i m c ngha 1%. - Ngnh may m c: c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v i m c ngha 1% v r i ro kinh doanh v i m c ngha 10%. - Ngnh xi mng: kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n v i m c ngha 1% v c h i tng tr ng, quy m doanh nghi p v i m c ngha 10%. V y, cc nhn t tc tnh thanh kho n c tc h t cc ngnh. Tm l i, c i m ngnh c nh h ng quan tr ng ng n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam, cc nhn t tc l i, c u trc ti s n v tnh thanh kho n c tc 4.1.6 Ki m tra hi n t ng a c ng tuy n kh ng nh tnh ph h p c a m hnh, tc gi ti n hnh ki m tra hi n c ng n t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n gi a cc n t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n h u ngnh khc nhau l khc nhau. Bn c nh , kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n v ng ph bi n

n c u trc v n c a cc cng h u h t cc ngnh.

ty thu c cc ngnh khc nhau cng khc nhau. Ngoi ra, cc nhn t kh nng sinh ng ph bi n

t ng a c ng tuy n gi a cc bi n. C nhi u cch gip pht hi n a c ng tuy n, trong nghin c u ny tc gi s d ng ma tr n h s tng quan gi a cc bi n l p. H u h t cc nghin c u kinh t l ng cho r ng, khi h s tng quan gi a hai

56

bi n b ng ho c cao hn 0.9 th l d u hi u quan tr ng x y ra hi n tng a c ng tuy n. D li u xy d ng m hnh l d li u cho nn hi n t ng a c ng tuy n c th x y ra. Vi c ki m tra hi n t ng a c ng tuy n l v cng c n thi t v n u hi n t ng a c ng tuy n x y ra th cc h s h i quy trong m hnh tr nn khng cn chnh xc n a. K t qu phn tch cho th y r ng, m i tng quan ring c a cc bi n nhau tng t kh u hao) v nh hn 0.9. (VIF) c a cc bi n 4.1.7 Ki m tra gi * ng th i ki m tra cc h s kh ch cv i i th p. Gi tr cao nh t l 0.33 (gi a c u trc ti s n v t m ch n thu i phng sai c l p trong cc m hnh, cc h s ny u th p hn 10. V

v y, hi n t ng a c ng tuy n khng x y ra trong cc m hnh h i quy. nh quan h tuy n tnh v phng sai b ng nhau i v i m hnh h i quy gi i h n c a t ng n trn t ng ti s n (LEV) phn tn gi a ph n d v gi tr d on c a (LEV)

Hnh 4.1: Bi u

57

i v i m hnh h i quy gi i h n c a n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV) phn tn gi a ph n d v gi tr d on c a (LLEV)

Hnh 4.2: Bi u

i v i m hnh h i quy gi i h n c a n di h n trn t ng ti s n (SLEV) phn tn gi a ph n d v gi tr d on c a (SLEV)

Hnh 4.3: Bi u

58

Hnh 4.1, 4.2 v 4.3 cho th y r ng gi lin h g gi a gi tr d 4.1.8 Ki m tra gi *

nh lin h tuy n tnh v phng sai

c a cc m hnh h i quy gi i h n c th a mn v trn cc hnh trn khng th y s on v ph n d, chng phn tn r t ng u nhin. nh v phn ph i chu n c a cc ph n d

i v i m hnh h i quy gi i h n c a n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LEV) phn ph i c a ph n d chu n ha c a LEV

Hnh 4.4: Bi u

i v i m hnh h i quy gi i h n c a n di h n trn t ng ti s n (LLEV) t n s c a ph n d chu n ha c a LLEV

Hnh 4. : Bi u

59

i v i m hnh h i quy gi i h n c a n di h n trn t ng ti s n (SLEV) t n s c a ph n d chu n ha c a SLEV

Hnh 4. : Bi u

Hnh 4.4, 4.5 v 4.6 cho th y r ng phn ph i ph n d c a ba m hnh h i quy gi i h n u c hnh d ng c a phn ph i chu n v i l ch chu n (Std. Dev.) g n nh v b ng 1 v gi tr trung bnh c a ph n d (Mean) x p x b ng 0. V v y, gi phn ph i chu n c a ph n d c th a mn. 4.1.9 Pht hi n m i t k t qu nghin c u K t qu ki m l p nh m hnh h i quy gi i h n v m i quan h gi a cc bi n ng c

i di n cho cc nhn t tc

n n b y ti chnh (cc bi n ph thu c)

hay c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t t i Vi t nam c trnh by tm t t nh sau: K t qu ki m nh m hnh h i quy gi i h n c a n b y ti chnh nh sau:

LEV = 0.154 - 0.145TANG + 0.057SIZE + 0.524NDTS + 0.014GROW 1.152ROA 0.057LIQ - 0.122Dummy1 0.073Dummy2 - 0.138Dummy3 0.102Dummy5 LLEV= -0.799 + 0.383TANG + 0.075SIZE + 0.009GROW - 0.412ROA + 0.008LIQ - 0.095Dummy1 - 0.082Dummy3 - 0.037Dummy4 - 0.114Dummy5 0.050Dummy6 SLEV = 0.956 - 0.562TANG - 0.014SIZE + 0.649NDTS - 0.773ROA 0.067LIQ - 0.059Dummy1 - 0.114Dummy2 - 0.093Dummy3

60

B ng 4.13:Tm t t k t qu ki m
Gi thuy t nghin c u

nh cc h s h i quy c a n b y ti chnh
K t qu nghin c u th c nghi m L thuy t v th c nghi m

Nhn t tc

ng

K hi u

LEV

LLEV

SLEV

Tng M c Tng M c Tng M c quan ngha quan ngha quan ngha + 1% + 1% 10%

H1

Quy m doanh nghi p

SIZE

+/-

H3

Kh nng sinh l i

ROA

+/-

1%

1%

1%

H6

C u trc ti s n

TANG

1%

1%

1%

H5

Tnh thanh kho n

LIQ

1%

1%

1%

H7

T m ch n thu t kh u hao

NDTS

5%

1%

H2

C h i tng tr ng

GROW

+/-

1%

5%

H4

R i ro kinh doanh

RISK

+/-

H8

Ngnh bao b ng gi

Dummy1

1%

1%

1%

Ngnh b t

ng s n

Dummy2

5%

1%

Ngnh cng ngh truy n thng Ngnh kinh doanh xng d u

Dummy3

1%

1%

1%

Dummy4

10%

Ngnh d c

Dummy5

1%

1%

Ngnh may m c

Dummy6

10%

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

61

Theo k t qu ki m

nh c tm t t trong b ng 4.19 cho th y r ng r i ro i v i n b y ti chnh. Ngoi ra t t c ng n n b y ti chnh. m c 1%), trong khi

kinh doanh khng c ngha th ng k cc nhn t cn l i i u c tc

Quy m doanh nghi p c tng quan thu n (+) v i t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n v t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n (c ngha th ng k k m c 10%). i u ny ng v i l thuy t nh c quan h t l ngh ch v i t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (c ngha th ng i c u trc v n, l thuy t cho r ng cc doanh nghi p c quy m l n trn th tr ng c xu h ng s d ng nhi u n b i v l i th v quy m gip doanh nghi p d dng ti p c n cc ngu n v n trn th tr ng v c th tho thu n v i bn vay c h ng li su t cho vay u i hn. Hn n a, cc doanh nghi p l n th ng c kh nng a d ng ho t t v t c nguy c b ph s n nn s d dng vay n hn. Tri l i, doanh nghi p cng l n l i t s d ng n ng n h n. M i tng quan ngh ch (-) gi a kh nng sinh l i v t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n, t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n, t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n (c ngha th ng k v i m c ngha l 1%). i u ny ng v i l thuy t tr t t phn h ng trong ti tr c a doanh nghi p, ngha l cc doanh nghi p c kh nng sinh l i cao th ng t s d ng n do cc doanh nghi p ny c th s d ng ngu n l i nhu n gi l i c a mnh ti tr cho cc ho t ng c a doanh nghi p. Nh v y, doanh nghi p s c th h th p chi ph s d ng v n. Tuy nhin, k t qu th c nghi m ny l i khng ng h l thuy t nh i c u trc v n. C u trc ti s n c tng quan ngh ch (-) v i t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n, t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n nhng l i c tng quan thu n (+) v i t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n. C hai m i tng quan ny 1%. V th , cc doanh nghi p c t l ti s n c h n do c nhi u ti s n c nghi p ny l i t s d ng n ng n h n. Tnh thanh kho n c m i tng quan ngh ch (-) v i t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n, t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n nhng l i c m i tng quan thu n (+) u c ngha th ng k m c nh l n th ng vay nhi u n di

nh c th th ch p khi vay n . Trong khi , cc doanh

62

v i t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n v c hai m i quan h ny m c 1%. d ng n ng n h n nhng l i s d ng nhi u n di h n. T m ch n thu t kh u hao khi ki m v t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n

u c ngha

i u ny c ngha l cc doanh nghi p c tnh thanh kho n cao s t s nh v i t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n

u c tng quan thu n (+) v i m c ngha

l n l t l 5% v 1%. i u ny c ngha l cc doanh nghi p c t l kh u hao cng l n th vay n ng n h n cng nhi u. Ng c l i, t m ch n thu t kh u hao khng c ngha th ng k v i t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n. V v y, cha c b ng ch ng cho th y r ng cc doanh nghi p s d ng n di h n t m ch n thu t kh u hao v n b y ti chnh. C m i tng quan thu n (+) gi a c h i tng tr ng v t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n, t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n m c ngha l n l t l 1%, 5%. i u ny cho th y r ng cc doanh nghi p c c h i tng tr ng trong tng lai cao s s d ng n di h n nhi u hn, nguyn nhn c th l do cc doanh nghi p ny huy ng n di h n ti tr cho cc c h i u t c a mnh. Ngoi ra c h i tng tr ng cng c quan h ngh ch (-) v i t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n nhng l i khng c ngha th ng k. R i ro kinh doanh c a doanh nghi p c m i tng quan thu n (+) v i t l t ng n trn t ng ti s n, t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n v t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n nhng l i khng c ngha v m t th ng k. Theo l thuy t nh i c u trc v n th r i ro kinh doanh c quan h ngh ch (-) v i n b y ti chnh v ng c l i theo l thuy t tr t t phn h ng l i c t l thu n (+) v i n b y ti chnh. Nh v y, k t qu th c nghi m c a tc gi cho r ng khng c b ng ch ng cho th y r i ro kinh doanh c m i quan h v i n b y ti chnh. c i m ngnh theo k t qu ki m ti chnh c a cc cng ty. nhau th cc nhn t tc nh cho th y c nh h ng n n b y i u ny c ngha l n b y ti chnh c a cc cng ty i v i cc ngnh khc ng n c u trc v n cng khc nhau. Cc nhn t tc h ng l i v thu . Tuy nhin, nhi u nghin c u th c nghi m l i cho th y m i quan h ng c chi u gi a

thu c cc ngnh khc nhau cng s khc nhau. Ngoi ra,

63

ng

n c u trc v n ph bi n Tm l i, cc nhn t tc

h u h t cc ngnh bao g m kh nng sinh l i, tnh ng n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t Vi t c i m ngnh. Ng c l i, khng ng n n b y ti chnh. M t ng

thanh kho n v c u trc ti s n. Nam l quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao, c h i tng tr ng v c b ng ch ng cho th y r i ro kinh doanh c tc n n b y ti chnh, c th : i v i h s n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n: kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti i v i h s n di h n trn t ng ti s n: quy m doanh nghi p v c u trc i v i h s t ng n trn t ng ti s n: kh nng sinh l i v tnh thanh nh c cc nhn t tc ng nc u

pht hi n m i quan tr ng trong nghin c u ny l vi c m t s nhn t c tc v t tr i ti s n. kho n. Nh v y, k t qu nghin c u xc chng nh th no, nhn t no c tc t tc ng trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam, xc ng v t tr i

s n v tnh thanh kho n.

nh c m i tng quan gi a n c u trc v n v cc nhn i u ny

n c u trc v n gi a cc ngnh khc nhau l khc nhau. t ra.

p ng c m c tiu nghin c u v cu h i nghin c u

64

K T LU N CHNG 4 Chng 4 tc gi trnh by k t qu nghin c u th c nghi m bao g m cc s li u th ng k m t , m i tng quan gi a cc bi n v k t qu ki m h i quy cc nhn t nh h ng ch ng minh r ng cc nhn t nh h ng nh m hnh n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p. K t qu h i quy n c u trc v n c a cc cng ty nim y t

t i Vi t Nam bao g m: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n, t m ch n thu t kh u hao v c h i tng tr ng. Ngoi ra c m t nhn t khng c tng quan ng v t tr i n c u trc v n l r i ro kinh doanh. Bn c nh , n n b y ti chnh. B n nhn t tc y u t ngnh cng nh h ng quan tr ng l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n

n c u trc v n bao g m: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh

65

CHNG 5 K T LU N V KI N NGH
5.1 K T LU N M t c u trc v n ph h p l quy t nh quan tr ng v i m i doanh nghi p ng c a quy t

khng ch b i nhu c u t i a ha l i ch thu c m cn b i tc

nh ny t i nng l c kinh doanh c a m i doanh nghi p trong mi tr ng c nh tranh. Qua phn tch cho th y r ng cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t nam ch y u s d ng n ng n h n, v n ch s h u ti tr cho ti s n v t s d ng n di h n. ng n c u trc v n c a Bn c nh , hi u qu s d ng v n c a cc cng ty ny cn th p. K t qu nghin c u c a tc gi v cc nhn t tc B ng 5.1: K t qu nghin c u cc nhn t tc ng cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam c tm l c qua b ng sau: n c u trc v n
K t qu nghin c u c a WANG MOU (2011) LEV Tng quan + K t qu nghin c u th c nghi m Nhn t tc ng K hi u LEV Tng quan Quy m doanh nghi p Kh nng sinh l i C u trc ti s n Tnh thanh kho n T m ch n thu t kh u hao C h i tng tr ng R i ro kinh doanh c i m ngnh SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK DUMMY >< >< >< + + + + + ? LLEV Tng quan + + + SLEV Tng quan + + +

Ngu n: tc gi t ng h p

66

Ghi ch: d u + c ngha l n b y ti chnh gia tng cng v i nhn t . - c ngha l n b y ti chnh gi m cng v i nhn t . ? ngha l cha xc >< ngha l c s khc bi t trong n b y ti chnh gi a cc ngnh. Pht hi n cng cho th y r ng c b n nhn t tc ng v t tr i n c u trc v n bao g m: quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i, c u trc ti s n, tnh thanh kho n. Trong khi , k t qu nghin c u c a Wang Mou (2011) l quy m doanh nghi p, kh nng sinh l i v t m ch n thu t kh u hao. Ngoi ra, c s khc bi t trong c u trc v n c a cc cng ty gi a cc ngnh. Cc ngnh khc nhau th cc nhn t tc cc nhn t c tc ng ph bi n ng n c u trc v n cng khc nhau v h u h t cc ngnh bao g m: u cho th y r ng c r t n c u trc v n nh.

kh nng sinh l i, tnh thanh kho n v c u trc ti s n. K t qu nghin c u theo l thuy t v th c nghi m nhi u nhn t tc ng

n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p. Nhng do kh nng h n kh o st s tc ng c a chng n c u trc

ch v vi c nh n di n cc bi n v kh nng thu th p s li u nn tc gi khng th a h t cc nhn t vo m hnh v n c a doanh nghi p. V v y, k t qu nghin c u khng p ng tr n v n m c tiu nghin c u cng nh h n ch kh nng nh n doanh nghi p m cha xem xt c u su thm nh v a ra cc ki n ngh gp ph n xy d ng c u trc v n t i u. Cc bi n xem xt ch y u l cc bi n thu c n i b n cc bi n thu c mi tr ng bn ngoi doanh y cng l nh ng v n c n c nghin nghi p nh li su t, l m pht, GDP cc nghin c u ti p theo. xc nh c u trc v n t i u

5.2 CC KI N NGH HON THI N C U TRC V N R rng khng th c m t cng th c chung cho ring mnh ph h p v i h ng n c.

cho t t c cc doanh nghi p. M i doanh nghi p nn xy d ng c u trc v n m c tiu c i m i m ring c a t ng doanh nghi p, tiu ch nh cc c a ngnh v c a th tr ng ti chnh. K t qu nghin c u cho th y cc nhn t n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p kh gi ng v i l thuy t v th c ti n

qu n tr t t c u trc v n m c tiu c a cc doanh nghi p trong t ng th i k

67

v nng cao tnh linh ho t trong c u trc v n, cc nh qu n tr c n lu cc v n sau: Th nh t, i u ch nh c c u n h p l Th ng k m t cho th y t l n di h n trn t ng ti s n bnh qun c a cc cng ty nim y t t i Vi t Nam l 11.5%, t l n ng n h n trn t ng ti s n l 48.25%. i u ny cho th y cc cng ty nim y t s d ng n ng n h n nhi u hn n di h n, nguyn nhn c th l do khi m khuy t c a th tr ng ti chnh cng nh m c hi u bi t c a doanh nghi p i v i cc lo i hnh ti tr di h n. V v y, cc nh qu n tr ti chnh c n cn nh c vi c l a ch n ngu n ti tr sao cho h p l, t ch c s d ng v n ti t ki m, hi u qu v ng m c ch. Vi c l a ch n v quy t nh th no ti tr cho ho t nh s d ng ngu n v n: v n ng n h n, v n di h n ng s n xu t kinh doanh sao cho mang l i gi tr c ti chnh hi u r quan h gi a vi c l a ng t t c ng u t

cao nh t cho doanh nghi p i h i gim

ch n ngu n v n v vi c t o ra gi tr cho doanh nghi p. i v i ngu n v n ng n h n, doanh nghi p nn t n d ng v huy cc ngu n v n ng n h n c a doanh nghi p. ti tr cho ti s n ng n h n trong qu trnh ho t

i v i ngu n v n di h n, khi doanh nghi p c nhu c u nh doanh nghi p nn dng ngu n v n ng v n

vo m t d n c th i gian thu h i v n trn m t nm nh m r ng s n xu t kinh doanh, thay th ti s n c u t di h n ti tr cho cc d n nh: v n ch s h u, vay di h n, thu ti chnh Th hai, a d ng ha cng c huy qu n tr c u trc v n hi u qu v nh m p ng kh nng thay Ngoi cc knh huy m b o kh nng i u ch nh linh ho t ng v n c a mnh

n c u trc v n, cc cng ty c n a d ng ha cc cng c huy

i c a c u trc v n m c tiu trong t ng th i k.

ng v n ph bi n l pht hnh c phi u v vay ngn hng, cc qu n tr c u trc v n ng qu n tr ti chnh,

doanh nghi p nn s d ng thm knh pht hnh tri phi u v thu ti chnh. Th ba, nng cao trnh T ch c ho t ng v c c u nhn s ph h p v i ho t

xy d ng h th ng ki m sot n i b ph h p v hi u qu . Bn c nh , cc nh

68

qu n tr c n th c v n nghi p l ti n thu n l i

thng tin b t cn x ng s

nh h ng l n

n kh nng

ti p c n ngu n v n trn th tr ng. Do , vi c minh b ch thng tin trong doanh cc doanh nghi p ti p c n cc ngu n v n. Ngoi ra, xy cc nh qu n tr c n th y c tnh hai m t c a vi c s d ng nhi u n , t ki t qu ti chnh. 5.3 GI I H N NGHIN C U V CC TNG LAI C u trc v n l m t nhn t lin quan Tuy nhin, ti tng i l n, n bao g m nhi u l thuy t v m t nh cc XU T NGHIN C U TRONG

d ng m t c u trc v n ph h p v i doanh nghi p c a mnh, trnh ri vo tnh tr ng

s l ng l n cc nghin c u th c nghi m. Bi nghin c u ny ki m ti v n cn m t s h n ch sau y:

n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t t i Vi t Nam.

M u kh o st: tc gi ch n m u cc doanh nghi p nim y t trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vi t Nam, n u xt v quy m cc doanh nghi p nim y t th m u kh l n nhng xt v quy m cc doanh nghi p ang t n t i v ho t th kch c m u kh nh . Nh n di n v xy d ng cc bi n: cc k t qu nghin c u th c nghi m v l thuy t cho th y c r t nhi u nhn t tc cc nhn t tc ng ng n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p. y a n Nhng do h n ch v kh nng thu th p s li u cng nh kh nng nh n di n n c u trc v n c a doanh nghi p nn tc gi khng th kh o st s tc ng c a chng h u h t cc nhn t vo m hnh nghin c u ng t i Vi t Nam

c u trc v n. V v y, k t qu nghin c u khng p ng tr n v n m c tiu nghin c u. Cc bi n xem xt ch y u v n l cc bi n thu c n i b doanh nghi p v cha xem xt n cc bi n s thu c mi tr ng bn ngoi doanh nghi p. c th M c d c g ng v n d ng m hnh c a n c ngoi c i u ch nh cho ph h p v i Vi t Nam nhng ch c ch n m hnh cn nhi u thi u xt v n d ng tr c ti p trn th tr ng ti chnh.

69

Phng php o l ng: Do h n ch v s li u nn cc bi n s theo gi tr s sch k ton, cha th y cng l v n Phng php ki m quan tr ng trong qu n tr ti chnh. nh: ch ki m

c o l ng

o l ng theo gi th tr ng c a doanh nghi p. nh theo phng php bnh phng b nh khc nh: phng php tc i (Random effect) V ng bi n

nh t (OLS), cha p d ng cc phng php ki m ng c nh (Fixed effect), phng php tc v y, cha so snh c phng php ki m

nh no s ph h p hn. ti ph thu c r t nhi u vo tnh ng th i

Nh ng h n ch khc: Tnh chnh xc c a

chnh xc c a ngu n s li u c a 246 cng ty nim y t trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vi t Nam c l y t trang web www.cafef.vn v www.cophieu68.com. ch ng khon Vi t Nam cha bao hm cc cng ty cha nim y t. Nh ng h n ch v a nu trn cng l nh ng g i cho cc nghin c u ti p theo trong tng lai. trong gi i h n nghin c u, ch nghin c u cc cng ty nim y t trn th tr ng

DANH M C TI LI U THAM KH O
A. TI LI U TI NG VI T 1. Nguy n Minh Ki u, 2009. Ti chnh doanh nghi p cn b n. Nh xu t b n Th ng k. 2. Hunh H u M nh, 2010. B ng ch ng th c nghi m v nh ng nhn t tc Vi t Nam. Lu n vn th c s kinh t . i h c Kinh t Thnh ph H Ch Minh. ng n c u trc v n c a cc ng

n c u trc v n c a cc doanh nghi p nim y t trn th tr ng ch ng khon 3. Nguy n Th Thanh Nga, 2010. Cc nhn t tc t . i h c Kinh t Thnh ph H Ch Minh. i. Nh xu t b n

cng ty t i S giao d ch ch ng khon TP.H Ch Minh. Lu n vn th c s kinh 4. Tr n Ng c Th ch bin, 2005. Ti chnh doanh nghi p hi n Th ng k. 5. Nguy n Th Ng c Trang, 2006. Qu n tr r i ro ti chnh. Nh xu t b n Th ng K. 6. Nguy n Th Ng c Trang v Nguy n Th Lin Hoa, 2007. Phn tch ti chnh. Nh xu t b n Lao ng X h i. ng n c u trc v n c a cc i h c Kinh t Thnh ph 7. L Ng c Trm, 2010. Phn tch cc nhn t tc doanh nghi p Vi t Nam. Lu n vn th c s kinh t . H Ch Minh. 8. Bi Kim Y n, 2008. Th tr ng ti chnh Th tr ng ch ng khon. Nh xu t b n Th ng k. B. TI LI U TI NG ANH 9. Chen, J.J., 2004. The determinants of capital structure of Chinese listed companies. Journal of Business Research, 57 (2004) 1341-1351. 10. Dawood, M.H. A.K. et. al., 2011. The determinants of capital structure in listed Egyptian corporations. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, ISSN: 14502889.

11. Ebadi, M. et. al, 2011. Impact of firm characteristics on capital structure of Iranian listed firms. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, ISSN: 1450-2275. 12. Mou, W., 2011. The determinants of capital structure in Chinese listed companies, Project paper for Degree of Master of Science. University Utara Malaysia. 13. Nguyen, Tran Dinh Khoi et al., 2006. Capital structure in small and mediumsized enterprises: case of Vietnam. Asian Economics Bulletin, pp. 192-211. 14. Olayinka. A., 2011. The determinants of capital structure: Evidence from Nigerian panel data. African Economics and Business Review Vol. 9, No. 1, Spring 2011. 15. Sayeed M.A., 2011. The determinants of capital structure for selected Bangladesh listed companies. International Review of Papers Vol. 7. No. March 2011, pp.21-36. 16. Xue, Y., 2007. Capital structure in China: Evidence from Chinese listed companies. PhD thesis. University of Surrey. Business Research

C. CC TRANG THNG TIN I N T 17. www.cafef.vn 18. www.cophieu68.com 19. www.gso.com.vn 20. www.hnx.vn 21. www.hsx.vn 22. www.sbv.gov.vn 23. www.stockbiz.vn 24. www.wss.com.vn

PH L C 1 TH PHN PH I C A CC BI N 1.LEV

2.LLEV

3.SLEV

4.SIZE

5.ROA

6.TANG

7.LIQ

8.NDTS

9.GROW

10.RISK

PH L C 2 DANH SCH 246 CNG TY NIM Y T TRN TH TR NG CH NG KHON VI T NAM

M STT CK 1 AAA 2 ADC Tn doanh nghi p ph n Nh a v Mi tr ng xanh An Pht ph n M thu t v Truy n thng ph n S n xu t Kinh doanh D c v Trang Vi t M ph n T p on D u kh An Pha ph n 482 ph n VICEM Bao b Bt Sn Ph n Xi Mng B m Sn ph n Xy d ng v Giao thng Bnh ph n u t Xy d ng Bnh Chnh ph n Vicem Bao b B m Sn ph n Xi mng Vicem Bt Sn ph n Xy d ng 47 ph n Xy d ng v u t 492 ph n Khong s n Xi mng C n Th ph n Chng Dng ph n u t v Xy d ng COTEC ph n Xy d ng v Pht tri n C s H ph n ph n u t H t ng K thu t Tp.H Ch B t u t v Pht tri n Nh t B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng B t ng s n Kinh doanh xng d u B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t B t ng s n ng s n ng s n Ngnh Bao b, ng gi Cng ngh truy n thng D c Kinh doanh xng d u B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi Xi mng B t ng s n B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi Xi mng B t ng s n B t ng s n Xi mng B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n

Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C 3 AMV thi t b Y t 4 ASP Cng ty C 5 B82 Cng ty C 6 BBS Cng ty c 7 BCC Cng ty C Cng ty C 8 BCE Dng 9 BCI Cng ty C 10 BPC Cng ty c 11 BTS Cng ty c 12 C47 Cng ty C 13 C92 Cng ty C 14 CCM Cng ty C 15 CDC Cng ty C 16 CIC Cng ty C Cng ty C 17 CID t ng Cng ty C 18 CII Minh Cng ty C 19 CLG COTEC 20 CMG Cng ty C Cng ty c 21 CMS v 22 CMT Cng ty C 23 CNT Cng ty C 24 COM Cng ty C 25 CSC Cng ty C 26 CSG Cng ty C 27 CT6 Cng ty C 28 CTA Cng ty C 29 CTD Cng ty C Cng ty C 30 CTM Vinavico 31 CTN Cng ty C

ph n T p on Cng ngh CMC ph n Cavico Xy d ng Nhn l c v D ch ph ph ph ph ph ph ph ph ph n Cng ngh M ng v Truy n thng n Xy d ng v Kinh doanh V t t n V t t - Xng d u n u t v Xy d ng Thnh Nam n Cp Si Gn n Cng trnh 6 n Vinavico n Xy d ng Cotec n u t, Xy d ng v Khai thc m

ph n Xy d ng Cng trnh ng m

Cng ty c ph n u t-S n xu t v Thng m i Vi t Nam Cng ty c ph n Vinam Cng ty c ph n u t v Xy l p Constrexim s 8 Cng ty C ph n a c 11 Cng ty C ph n Pht tri n th Cng nghi p S 2 Cng ty C ph n D c ph m B n Tre Cng ty C ph n u t Pht tri n - Xy d ng s 2 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng Cng nghi p DESCON Cng ty C ph n D c ph m C u Long Cng ty C ph n ng H i B n Tre Cng ty C ph n D c H u Giang Cng ty C ph n D c ph m H Ty Cng ty C ph n DIC - ng Ti n T ng Cng ty C ph n u t Pht tri n Xy d ng Cng ty C ph n u t Pht tri n Xy d ng - H i An Cng ty C ph n T p on c Long Gia Lai Cng ty C ph n a c L t Cng ty C ph n Xu t nh p kh u Y t Domesco T ng CTCP Y t Danameco Cng ty c ph n u t Cn nh M c Cng ty C ph n K ngh Thnh Cng ty C ph n D c ph m Vi n ng Cng ty C ph n D ch v v Xy d ng a c t 54 DXG Xanh 55 DXV Cng ty C ph n VICEM V t li u Xy d ng N ng 56 FPC Cng ty C ph n Full Power 57 FPT Cng ty C ph n FPT 58 GMC Cng ty C ph n S n xu t Thng m i May Si Gn 59 HAD Cng ty C ph n Bia H N i - H i Dng 60 HAG Cng ty C ph n Hong Anh Gia Lai 61 HAS Cng ty C ph n HACISCO Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng v Kinh doanh a c Ho 62 HBC Bnh 63 HBD Cng ty C ph n Bao b PP Bnh Dng 64 HDC Cng ty C ph n Pht tri n nh B R a-Vng Tu 65 HOM Cng ty c ph n Xi mng VICEM Hong Mai 66 HPB Cng ty C ph n Bao b PP 67 HT1 Cng ty C ph n Xi Mng H Tin 1 68 HT2 Cng ty C ph n Xi mng H Tin 2 69 HTB Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng Huy Th ng 70 HTI Cng ty C ph n u t pht tri n h t ng IDICO 71 HU3 Cng ty C ph n u t v Xy d ng HUD3 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 CTV CVN CX8 D11 D2D DBT DC2 DCC DCL DHC DHG DHT DID DIG DIH DLG DLR DMC DNM DRH DTT DVD

B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n D c B t ng s n B t ng s n D c Bao b, ng gi D c D c B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n D c D c B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi D c B t ng s Xi mng B t ng s Cng ngh May m c B t ng s B t ng s Cng ngh n n truy n thng n n truy n thng

B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n Xi mng Bao b, ng gi Xi mng Xi mng B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n

Cng ty C ph n Tasco Cng ty C ph n Xi mng Vicem H i Vn Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng Sng H ng Cng ty C ph n D c ph m IMEXPHARM Cng ty C ph n Bao b v In Nng nghi p Cng ty C ph n u t v Cng nghi p Tn T o Cng ty C ph n u t - Kinh doanh nh Cng ty C ph n Cng ngh Tin Phong Cng ty c ph n Thi t b Y t Vi t Nh t Cng ty C ph n u t a c Khang An T ng Cng ty Pht tri n th Kinh B c Cng ty C ph n u t Kinh doanh nh Khang i n Cng ty c ph n u t Thi t b v Xy l p i n 84 KTT Thin Tr ng 85 L10 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 10 86 L14 Cng ty c ph n LICOGI 14 87 L18 Cng ty C ph n u t v Xy d ng s 18 88 L35 Cng ty C ph n C kh L p my Lilama 89 L43 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 45.3 90 L44 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 45.4 91 L61 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 69-1 92 L62 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 69-2 93 LCD Cng ty C ph n Lilama Th nghi m C i n 94 LCG Cng ty C ph n LICOGI 16 95 LCS Cng ty C ph n Licogi 16.6 96 LDP Cng ty C ph n D c Lm ng - Ladophar Cng ty c ph n u t v Pht tri n th Long 97 LGL Giang Cng ty C ph n u t v Xy d ng Th y l i Lm 98 LHC ng 99 LIG Cng ty C ph n Licogi 13 100 LM3 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 3 101 LM7 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 7 102 LM8 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 18 103 LO5 Cng ty C ph n Lilama 5 104 LUT Cng ty C ph n u t Xy d ng Lng Ti 105 MCG Cng ty C ph n C i n v Xy d ng Vi t Nam 106 MCO Cng ty C ph n MCO Vi t Nam 107 MCP Cng ty C ph n In v Bao b M Chu 108 MDG Cng ty C ph n mi n ng 109 MEC Cng ty C ph n Someco Sng 110 MKP Cng ty C ph n Ha - D c ph m MEKOPHAR 111 NBB Cng ty C ph n u t Nm B y B y

72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83

HUT HVX ICG IMP INN ITA ITC ITD JVC KAC KBC KDH

B t ng s n Xi mng B t ng s n D c Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng D c B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t B t B t B t B t B t B t B t B t B t B t B t D c B t ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s n n n n n n n n n n n n

ng s n

B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n B t ng s n D c B t ng s n

112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129

NKG NPS NSN NTL NVT ONE OPC PET PGC PGD PHC PHH PIT PIV PMC PPP PSG PTB

130 PTL 131 132 133 134 135 PVA PVE PVV PVX PXA

136 PXI 137 PXL 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 PXS PXT QCG QNC QTC S12 S27 S55 S64 S74 S91

Cng ty C ph n Thp Nam Kim Cng ty C ph n May Ph Th nh - Nh B Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng 565 Cng ty C ph n Pht tri n th T Lim Cng ty C ph n B t ng s n Du l ch Ninh Vn Bay Cng ty C ph n Truy n thng s 1 Cng ty C ph n D c ph m OPC T ng Cng ty C ph n D ch v T ng h p D u kh Cng ty C ph n Gas Petrolimex Cng ty C ph n Phn ph i Kh th p p D u kh Vi t Nam Cng ty c ph n Xy d ng Ph c Hng Holdings Cng ty c ph n H ng H D u kh Cng ty C ph n Xu t nh p kh u Petrolimex Cng ty C ph n PIV Cng ty C ph n D c ph m D c Li u Pharmedic Cng ty C ph n D c ph m Phong Ph Cng ty C ph n u t v Xy l p D u kh Si Gn Cng ty C ph n Ph Ti Cng ty C ph n u t H t ng v th D u kh PVC Cng ty C ph n T ng Cng ty Xy l p D u kh Ngh An T ng Cng ty T v n Thi t k D u kh-CTCP Cng ty C ph n u t Xy d ng Vinaconex - PVC T ng Cng ty c ph n Xy l p D u kh Vi t Nam Cng ty CP u t & Thng m i D u kh Ngh An Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng Cng nghi p v Dn d ng D u kh Cng ty c ph n u t Xy d ng Thng m i D u kh-IDICO Cng ty C ph n K t c u Kim lo i v L p my D u kh Cng ty C ph n Xy l p ng ng B ch a D u kh Cng ty C ph n Qu c C ng Gia Lai Cng ty C ph n Xi mng v Xy d ng Qu ng Ninh Cng ty C ph n Cng trnh Giao thng V n t i Qu ng Nam Cng ty C ph n Sng 12 Cng ty c ph n Sng 27 Cng ty C ph n Sng 5.05 Cng ty C ph n Sng 6.04 Cng ty C ph n Sng 7.04 Cng ty C ph n Sng 9.01

B t ng s n May m c B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng D c Kinh doanh xng d u Kinh doanh xng d u Kinh doanh xng d u B t ng s n B t ng s n Kinh doanh xng d u B t ng s n D c D c B t ng s n B t ng s n B t B B B B B t t t t t ng s n ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s n n n n n

B t B t

ng s n ng s n

B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Xi mng B B B B B B B t t t t t t t ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s ng s n n n n n n n

149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189

S96 S99 SAM SC5 SCC SCJ SCR SD1 SD2 SD3 SD4 SD5 SD6 SD7 SD8 SD9 SDB SDD SDH SDJ SDP SDS SDT SDY SEL SFC SGT SIC SJC SJE SJM SJS SNG SPM SPP SSS STL STP SVI SVN SVT

Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty c Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty c Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng nghi Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty c Cng ty C Cng ty c Cng ty C Cng ty C Cng ty c Cng ty C

ph n Sng 9.06 ph n Sng 9.09 ph n u t v Pht tri n Sacom ph n Xy d ng s 5 ph n Xi mng Sng ph n Xi mng Si Sn ph n a c Si Gn Thng Tn ph n Sng 1 ph n Sng 2 ph n Sng 3 ph n Sng 4 ph n Sng 5 ph n Sng 6 ph n Sng 7 ph n Sng 8 ph n Sng 9 ph n Sng 207 ph n u t v Xy l p Sng ph n Xy d ng h t ng Sng ph n Sng 25 ph n u t v Thng m i D u kh Sng ph n Xy l p v u t Sng ph n Sng 10 ph n Xi mng Sng Yaly ph n Sng 11 Thng Long ph n Nhin li u Si Gn ph n Cng ngh Vi n thng Si Gn ph n u t - Pht tri n Sng ph n Sng 1.01 ph n Sng 11 ph n Sng 19 ph n u t Pht tri n th v Khu p Sng ph n Sng 10.1 ph n S.P.M ph n Bao b Nh a Si Gn ph n Sng 6.06 ph n Sng - Thng Long ph n Cng nghi p Thng m i Sng ph n Bao b Bin Ha ph n SOLAVINA ph n Cng ngh Si Gn Vi n ng

B t ng s B t ng s Cng ngh B t ng s Xi mng Xi mng B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s B t ng s

n n truy n thng n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Xi mng B t ng s n Kinh doanh xng d u Cng ngh truy n thng B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n D c Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng

190 SZL 191 TBX 192 TCM 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 TDC TDH TET THG TKC TMX TNG TPC TPP TRA TSM TTC TTP TV1 TV2 TV3 TV4 TXM TYA UIC V11 V12 V15 V21 VAT VBC VC1 VC2 VC3 VC5 VC6 VC7 VC9 VCC

227 VCG 228 VCH

Cng ty c ph n Sonadezi Long Thnh Cng ty C ph n Xi mng Thi Bnh Cng ty C ph n D t may - u t - Thng m i Thnh Cng Cng ty C ph n Kinh doanh v Pht tri n Bnh Dng Cng ty C ph n Pht tri n Nh Th c Cng ty C ph n V i s i May m c Mi n B c Cng ty C ph n u t v Xy d ng Ti n Giang Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng v Kinh doanh a c Tn K Cng ty C ph n Thng m i Xi mng Cng ty C ph n u t v Thng m i TNG Cng ty C ph n Nh a Tn i Hng Cng ty C ph n Nh a Tn Ph Cng ty C ph n TRAPHACO Cng ty C ph n Xi mng Tin Sn H Ty Cng ty C ph n G ch men Thanh Thanh Cng ty C ph n Bao b Nh a Tn Ti n Cng ty c ph n T v n Xy d ng i n 1 Cng ty C ph n T v n Xy d ng i n 2 Cng ty C ph n T v n Xy d ng i n 3 Cng ty C ph n T v n Xy d ng i n 4 CTCP Vicem Thng m i Xi mng Cng ty C ph n Dy v Cp i n Taya Vi t Nam Cng ty C ph n u t Pht tri n Nh v th Idico Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 11 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng S 12 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng S 15 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 21 Cng ty C ph n Vi n thng V n Xun Cng ty C ph n Nh a - Bao b Vinh Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 1 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 2 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 3 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 5 Cng ty C ph n Vinaconex 6 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 7 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng s 9 Cng ty C ph n Vinaconex 25 T ng Cng ty C ph n Xu t nh p kh u v Xy d ng Vi t Nam Cng ty C ph n u t v Pht tri n H t ng

B t ng s n Xi mng May m c B t ng s n B t ng s n May m c B t ng s n B t ng s n Xi mng May m c Bao b, ng gi Bao b, ng gi D c Xi mng B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Xi mng Cng ngh truy n thng B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t B t ng s n ng s n

Vinaconex 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 Cng ty C ph n Xy d ng i n VNECO 1 Cng ty c ph n Xy d ng i n VNECO 2 Cng ty c ph n Xy d ng i n VNECO 3 Cng ty C ph n u t v xy d ng VNECO 9 Cng ty C ph n u t v S n xu t Vi t - Hn Cng ty c ph n u t Xy d ng Viwaseen - Hu T p on Vingroup - Cng ty C ph n Cng ty C ph n Nh a Tn Ha Cng ty C ph n u t v Pht tri n Cng ngh Vn 237 VLA Lang 238 VMC Cng ty C ph n Vimeco 239 VMD Cng ty C ph n Y D c ph m Vimedimex 240 VNE T ng cng ty C ph n Xy d ng i n Vi t Nam 241 VNI Cng ty C ph n u t B t ng s n Vi t Nam 242 VPH Cng ty C ph n V n Pht Hng 243 VPK Cng ty C ph n Bao b d u th c v t 244 VRC Cng ty C ph n Xy l p v a c Vng Tu 245 VSI Cng ty C ph n u t v Xy d ng C p thot n c 246 YBC Cng ty C ph n Xi mng v Khong s n Yn Bi VE1 VE2 VE3 VE9 VHG VHH VIC VKP B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Cng ngh truy n thng B t ng s n B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi Cng ngh truy n thng B t ng s n D c B t ng s n B t ng s n B t ng s n Bao b, ng gi B t ng s n B t ng s n Xi mng

PH L C 3 K T QU H I QUY M HNH T NG TH 1. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .739
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.898

R Square .545

Square .539

.1466679

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 25.351 21.124 46.475 df 13 982 995 Mean Square 1.950 .022 F 90.654 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 B .134 .058 -1.133 -.130 -.057 .525 .014 .002 -.111 Std. Error .108 .009 .088 .031 .003 .210 .005 .003 .025 .154 -.302 -.110 -.456 .062 .057 .012 -.144 Coefficients Beta t 1.246 6.497 -12.851 -4.226 -19.666 2.506 2.585 .566 -4.515 Sig. .213 .000 .000 .000 .000 .012 .010 .572 .000

Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

-.058 -.124 .016 -.091 -.012

.024 .028 .021 .026 .034

-.093 -.136 .037 -.111 -.009

-2.405 -4.425 .784 -3.516 -.360

.016 .000 .433 .000 .719

2. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .671
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.951

R Square .450

Square .443

.1048975

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 8.835 10.805 19.640 df 13 982 995 Mean Square .680 .011 F 61.761 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG B -.781 .073 -.400 .399 Std. Error .077 .006 .063 .022 .298 -.164 .519 Coefficients Beta t -10.121 11.473 -6.351 18.106 Sig. .000 .000 .000 .000

LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

.008 -.195 .008 .001 -.083 .016 -.071 -.026 -.103 -.040

.002 .150 .004 .002 .018 .017 .020 .015 .018 .024

.100 -.035 .050 .012 -.165 .040 -.119 -.091 -.194 -.047

3.920 -1.300 2.055 .508 -4.694 .928 -3.510 -1.743 -5.609 -1.684

.000 .194 .040 .611 .000 .354 .000 .082 .000 .092

3. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .781
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.864

R Square .610

Square .605

.1319674

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 26.720 17.102 43.822 df 13 982 995 Mean Square 2.055 .017 F 118.020 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B .907 -.013 -.764 -.543 -.066 .694 .006 .000 -.035 -.086 -.065 .031 .018 .023 Std. Error .097 .008 .079 .028 .003 .189 .005 .003 .022 .022 .025 .019 .023 .030 -.036 -.210 -.472 -.542 .084 .026 .004 -.046 -.142 -.073 .074 .023 .018 Coefficients Beta t 9.341 -1.622 -9.635 -19.585 -25.261 3.677 1.254 .220 -1.564 -3.946 -2.558 1.675 .796 .756 Sig. .000 .105 .000 .000 .000 .000 .210 .826 .118 .000 .011 .094 .426 .450

PH L C 4 K T QU H I QUY M HNH GI I H N 1. HM H I QUY GI I H N C A M HNH H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 2 3 4 R .739 .739
a b c

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson

R Square .545 .545 .545 .545

Square .539 .540 .540 .540

.1466679 .1466029 .1465524 .1465632 1.894

.738 .738

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 c. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 d. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS e. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total 2 Regression Residual Total 3 Regression Residual Total 4 Regression Residual Sum of Squares 25.351 21.124 46.475 25.348 21.127 46.475 25.342 21.134 46.475 25.317 21.159 df 13 982 995 12 983 995 11 984 995 10 985 2.532 .021 117.859 .000
d

Mean Square 1.950 .022

F 90.654

Sig. .000
a

2.112 .021

98.284

.000

2.304 .021

107.264

.000

Total

46.475

995

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 c. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 d. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS e. Bi n ph thu c: LEV H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 2 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ B .134 .058 -1.133 -.130 -.057 .525 .014 .002 -.111 -.058 -.124 .016 -.091 -.012 .129 .058 -1.135 -.130 -.057 Std. Error .108 .009 .088 .031 .003 .210 .005 .003 .025 .024 .028 .021 .026 .034 .107 .009 .088 .031 .003 .154 -.302 -.110 -.455 .154 -.302 -.110 -.456 .062 .057 .012 -.144 -.093 -.136 .037 -.111 -.009 Coefficients Beta t 1.246 6.497 -12.851 -4.226 -19.666 2.506 2.585 .566 -4.515 -2.405 -4.425 .784 -3.516 -.360 1.207 6.534 -12.894 -4.229 -19.684 Sig. .213 .000 .000 .000 .000 .012 .010 .572 .000 .016 .000 .433 .000 .719 .228 .000 .000 .000 .000

NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 3 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 4 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy5 a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

.525 .014 .002 -.108 -.055 -.121 .020 -.087 .130 .058 -1.141 -.131 -.057 .530 .014 -.107 -.055 -.120 .020 -.087 .154 .057 -1.152 -.145 -.057 .524 .014 -.122 -.073 -.138 -.102

.210 .005 .003 .023 .022 .026 .018 .024 .107 .009 .087 .031 .003 .209 .005 .023 .022 .026 .018 .024 .104 .009 .087 .028 .003 .209 .005 .018 .015 .021 .019

.062 .057 .012 -.140 -.088 -.132 .045 -.106

2.505 2.580 .567 -4.753 -2.454 -4.567 1.069 -3.641 1.218

.012 .010 .571 .000 .014 .000 .286 .000 .223 .000 .000 .000 .000 .011 .010 .000 .013 .000 .285 .000 .139 .000 .000 .000 .000 .012 .009 .000 .000 .000 .000

.154 -.304 -.110 -.455 .062 .057 -.139 -.089 -.131 .045 -.106

6.526 -13.056 -4.239 -19.686 2.536 2.576 -4.736 -2.477 -4.548 1.070 -3.635 1.479

.153 -.307 -.122 -.457 .062 .058 -.159 -.117 -.151 -.125

6.498 -13.280 -5.186 -19.782 2.504 2.621 -6.869 -4.881 -6.738 -5.369

2. HM H I QUY GI I H N C A M HNH H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 2 3 4 R .671 .671
a b c

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson

R Square .450 .450 .449 .448

Square .443 .443 .443 .443

.1048975 .1048580 .1048489 .1048960 1.953

.670 .669

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 c. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, NDTS, Dummy4 d. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy4 e. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total 2 Regression Residual Total 3 Regression Residual Total 4 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 8.835 10.805 19.640 8.832 10.808 19.640 8.823 10.817 19.640 8.802 10.838 19.640 df 13 982 995 12 983 995 11 984 995 10 985 995 .880 .011 79.994 .000
d

Mean Square .680 .011

F 61.761

Sig. .000
a

.736 .011

66.937

.000

.802 .011

72.959

.000

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4

b. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 c. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, NDTS, Dummy4 d. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy4 e. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 2 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 B -.781 .073 -.400 .399 .008 -.195 .008 .001 -.083 .016 -.071 -.026 -.103 -.040 -.780 .073 -.404 .399 .008 -.191 .008 -.082 Std. Error .077 .006 .063 .022 .002 .150 .004 .002 .018 .017 .020 .015 .018 .024 .077 .006 .063 .022 .002 .150 .004 .018 .298 -.166 .518 .100 -.035 .050 -.165 .298 -.164 .519 .100 -.035 .050 .012 -.165 .040 -.119 -.091 -.194 -.047 Coefficients Beta t -10.121 11.473 -6.351 18.106 3.920 -1.300 2.055 .508 -4.694 .928 -3.510 -1.743 -5.609 -1.684 -10.117 11.470 -6.458 18.107 3.927 -1.278 2.052 -4.681 Sig. .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .194 .040 .611 .000 .354 .000 .082 .000 .092 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .201 .040 .000

Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 3 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 4 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ GROW Dummy1 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

.016 -.070 -.026 -.103 -.040 -.776 .073 -.402 .392 .008 -.205 .008 -.092 -.082 -.036 -.113 -.049 -.799 .075 -.412 .383 .008 .009 -.095 -.082 -.037 -.114 -.050

.017 .020 .015 .018 .024 .077 .006 .063 .021 .002 .149 .004 .014 .016 .009 .015 .022 .075 .006 .062 .020 .002 .004 .014 .016 .009 .015 .022

.039 -.118 -.091 -.194 -.047

.911 -3.495 -1.744 -5.606 -1.687 -10.081

.362 .000 .082 .000 .092 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .170 .039 .000 .000 .000 .000 .028 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .021 .000 .000 .000 .000 .024

.301 -.165 .509 .100 -.037 .050 -.183 -.137 -.129 -.213 -.056

11.666 -6.425 19.089 3.938 -1.373 2.067 -6.380 -5.200 -3.967 -7.778 -2.202 -10.627

.308 -.169 .498 .104 .055 -.190 -.137 -.132 -.215 -.058

12.190 -6.646 19.553 4.079 2.314 -6.722 -5.198 -4.095 -7.855 -2.268

3. HM H I QUY GI I H N C A M HNH H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 R .781 .781
a b c

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson

R Square .610 .610 .609 .609 .609 .608

Square .605 .605 .605 .605 .605 .605

.1319674 .1319035 .1318748 .1318288 .1318710 .1319548 1.860

.781 .781 .780

d e f

.780

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 c. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 d. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 e. Bi n c l p: (Constant), SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 f. Bi n c l p: (Constant), SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS g. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV hn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total 2 Regression Residual Total 3 Regression Residual Total 4 Regression Sum of Squares 26.720 17.102 43.822 26.719 17.103 43.822 26.709 17.113 43.822 26.703 df 13 982 995 12 983 995 11 984 995 10 2.670 153.655 .000
d

Mean Square 2.055 .017

F 118.020

Sig. .000
a

2.227 .017

127.974

.000

2.428 .017

139.617

.000

Residual Total 5 Regression Residual Total 6 Regression Residual Total

17.118 43.822 26.675 17.146 43.822 26.636 17.186 43.822

985 995 9 986 995 8 987 995

.017

2.964 .017

170.437

.000

3.329 .017

191.217

.000

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, RISK, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 b. Bi n c l p: (Constant), Dummy6, GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 c. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, Dummy5, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 d. Bi n c l p: (Constant), GROW, SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 e. Bi n c l p: (Constant), SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS, Dummy4 f. Bi n c l p: (Constant), SIZE, Dummy3, Dummy1, LIQ, ROA, TANG, Dummy2, NDTS g. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK Dummy1 Dummy2 B .907 -.013 -.764 -.543 -.066 .694 .006 .000 -.035 -.086 Std. Error .097 .008 .079 .028 .003 .189 .005 .003 .022 .022 -.036 -.210 -.472 -.542 .084 .026 .004 -.046 -.142 Coefficients Beta t 9.341 -1.622 -9.635 -19.585 -25.261 3.677 1.254 .220 -1.564 -3.946 Sig. .000 .105 .000 .000 .000 .000 .210 .826 .118 .000

Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 2 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 Dummy6 3 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 Dummy5 4 (Constant) SIZE ROA

-.065 .031 .018 .023 .907 -.013 -.766 -.543 -.066 .696 .006 -.034 -.086 -.064 .031 .018 .023 .918 -.013 -.763 -.543 -.066 .696 .006 -.041 -.092 -.071 .025 .012 .922 -.013 -.758

.025 .019 .023 .030 .097 .008 .079 .028 .003 .188 .005 .022 .022 .025 .019 .023 .030 .096 .008 .079 .028 .003 .188 .005 .020 .020 .024 .016 .022 .096 .008 .078

-.073 .074 .023 .018

-2.558 1.675 .796 .756 9.351

.011 .094 .426 .450 .000 .104 .000 .000 .000 .000 .211 .120 .000 .011 .094 .425 .450 .000 .094 .000 .000 .000 .000 .205 .044 .000 .003 .135 .576 .000 .096 .000

-.036 -.210 -.472 -.542 .084 .026 -.046 -.142 -.073 .074 .023 .018

-1.627 -9.733 -19.600 -25.272 3.694 1.253 -1.558 -3.958 -2.553 1.676 .798 .756 9.564

-.037 -.209 -.472 -.543 .084 .026 -.055 -.153 -.080 .059 .015

-1.677 -9.709 -19.601 -25.358 3.700 1.267 -2.013 -4.596 -2.974 1.496 .559 9.651

-.036 -.208

-1.665 -9.711

TANG LIQ NDTS GROW Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 5 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 Dummy4 6 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS Dummy1 Dummy2 Dummy3 a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

-.547 -.066 .694 .006 -.046 -.098 -.077 .019 .927 -.013 -.746 -.546 -.066 .656 -.046 -.098 -.077 .020 .956 -.014 -.773 -.562 -.067 .649 -.059 -.114 -.093

.027 .003 .188 .005 .018 .017 .021 .013 .096 .008 .078 .027 .003 .186 .018 .017 .021 .013 .094 .008 .075 .025 .003 .186 .016 .013 .018

-.475 -.541 .084 .026 -.062 -.163 -.087 .045

-20.181 -25.569 3.689 1.277 -2.602 -5.854 -3.652 1.453 9.707

.000 .000 .000 .202 .009 .000 .000 .146 .000 .090 .000 .000 .000 .000 .010 .000 .000 .133 .000 .076 .000 .000 .000 .001 .000 .000 .000

-.037 -.205 -.475 -.541 .080 -.062 -.163 -.087 .047

-1.695 -9.623 -20.164 -25.541 3.531 -2.588 -5.851 -3.659 1.502 10.222

-.039 -.212 -.488 -.547 .079 -.079 -.189 -.105

-1.778 -10.254 -22.425 -26.278 3.489 -3.729 -8.618 -5.081

PH L C 5 K T QU H I QUY M HNH T NG TH THEO NGNH 1. NGNH BAO B, NG GI a. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .803
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.335

R Square .644

Square .613

.1366103

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 2.638 1.456 4.094 df 7 78 85 Mean Square .377 .019 F 20.196 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV B -.160 .066 -.640 -.051 -.061 .556 .133 .012 Std. Error .523 .045 .236 .115 .006 .790 .039 .008 .111 -.222 -.034 -.716 .057 .269 .115 Coefficients Beta t -.305 1.467 -2.719 -.439 -9.627 .704 3.406 1.540 Sig. .761 .146 .008 .662 .000 .484 .001 .128

b. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .731
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.077

R Square .535

Square .493

.0602992

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .326 .284 .610 df 7 78 85 Mean Square .047 .004 F 12.812 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV B -.665 .063 -.289 .187 -.009 .087 .048 .002 Std. Error .231 .020 .104 .051 .003 .349 .017 .003 .275 -.259 .322 -.283 .023 .250 .053 Coefficients Beta t -2.881 3.165 -2.777 3.672 -3.329 .248 2.766 .624 Sig. .005 .002 .007 .000 .001 .805 .007 .534

c. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .751
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.269

R Square .564

Square .525

.1216774

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1.496 1.155 2.651 df 7 78 85 Mean Square .214 .015 F 14.435 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B .506 .003 -.352 -.238 -.051 .469 .086 .010 Std. Error .466 .040 .210 .103 .006 .703 .035 .007 .007 -.151 -.197 -.754 .060 .215 .117 Coefficients Beta t 1.085 .079 -1.677 -2.313 -9.159 .667 2.453 1.420 Sig. .281 .937 .098 .023 .000 .507 .016 .160

2. NGNH B T

NG S N

a. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .629
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.659

R Square .396

Square .389

.1405935

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 8.218 12.552 20.770 df 7 635 642 Mean Square 1.174 .020 F 59.396 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV B .256 .050 -1.229 -.160 -.072 .863 .015 .004 Std. Error .120 .010 .117 .038 .005 .244 .007 .004 .160 -.335 -.137 -.467 .123 .071 .035 Coefficients Beta t 2.143 4.974 -10.553 -4.184 -14.570 3.541 2.235 1.123 Sig. .032 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .026 .262

b. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .645
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.884

R Square .416

Square .410

.1035347

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 4.848 6.807 11.655 df 7 635 642 Mean Square .693 .011 F 64.606 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV B -.946 .082 -.360 .438 .031 -.114 .002 .001 Std. Error .088 .007 .086 .028 .004 .179 .005 .003 .350 -.131 .501 .268 -.022 .012 .008 Coefficients Beta t -10.746 11.050 -4.199 15.554 8.493 -.633 .399 .252 Sig. .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .527 .690 .801

c. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .752
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.684

R Square .566

Square .561

.1322423

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 14.486 11.105 25.591 df 7 635 642 Mean Square 2.069 .017 F 118.333 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, SIZE, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B 1.202 -.032 -.869 -.598 -.103 .976 .013 .005 Std. Error .112 .009 .110 .036 .005 .229 .006 .003 -.092 -.214 -.462 -.601 .125 .056 .037 Coefficients Beta t 10.692 -3.363 -7.932 -16.626 -22.140 4.260 2.064 1.391 Sig. .000 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 .039 .165

3. NGNH CNG NGH TRUY N THNG a. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .753
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.418

R Square .567

Square .508

.1395002

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, SIZE, ROA, NDTS, LIQ, GROW, TANG b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1.300 .992 2.292 df 7 51 58 Mean Square .186 .019 F 9.543 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, SIZE, ROA, NDTS, LIQ, GROW, TANG b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV B -.017 .060 -.395 -.630 -.062 1.992 .022 .011 Std. Error .317 .028 .378 .304 .008 1.819 .027 .016 .217 -.128 -.300 -.721 .139 .087 .067 Coefficients Beta t -.055 2.138 -1.044 -2.072 -7.401 1.095 .817 .668 Sig. .956 .037 .301 .043 .000 .279 .418 .507

b. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .648
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.584

R Square .420

Square .340

.0654078

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, SIZE, ROA, NDTS, LIQ, GROW, TANG b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .158 .218 .376 df 7 51 58 Mean Square .023 .004 F 5.277 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, SIZE, ROA, NDTS, LIQ, GROW, TANG b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV B -.271 .028 .179 .446 -.008 -3.552 -.008 .004 Std. Error .149 .013 .177 .143 .004 .853 .013 .007 .249 .143 .524 -.238 -.612 -.077 .062 Coefficients Beta t -1.824 2.115 1.009 3.127 -2.115 -4.166 -.627 .539 Sig. .074 .039 .318 .003 .039 .000 .534 .592

c. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .780
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.011

R Square .608

Square .554

.1218643

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, SIZE, ROA, NDTS, LIQ, GROW, TANG b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1.175 .757 1.932 df 7 51 58 Mean Square .168 .015 F 11.301 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, SIZE, ROA, NDTS, LIQ, GROW, TANG b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B .254 .032 -.574 -1.076 -.054 5.544 .030 .007 Std. Error .277 .025 .330 .266 .007 1.589 .023 .014 .127 -.202 -.558 -.680 .422 .129 .045 Coefficients Beta t .916 1.312 -1.737 -4.050 -7.337 3.490 1.272 .475 Sig. .364 .195 .088 .000 .000 .001 .209 .637

4. NGNH KINH DOANH XNG D U a. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .934
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.408

R Square .871

Square .842

.0694513

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .981 .145 1.126 df 7 30 37 Mean Square .140 .005 F 29.066 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV B .051 .061 -.566 -.367 -.093 -.052 .023 .041 Std. Error .508 .040 .155 .119 .011 1.724 .021 .031 .138 -.259 -.274 -.679 -.003 .073 .089 Coefficients Beta t .100 1.505 -3.662 -3.087 -8.757 -.030 1.078 1.325 Sig. .921 .143 .001 .004 .000 .976 .290 .195

b. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .735
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.855

R Square .540

Square .433

.0587794

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .122 .104 .226 df 7 30 37 Mean Square .017 .003 F 5.041 Sig. .001
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV B .129 -.002 -.446 -.261 -.008 4.764 -.016 .007 Std. Error .430 .034 .131 .101 .009 1.459 .018 .026 -.010 -.455 -.436 -.137 .535 -.116 .036 Coefficients Beta t .301 -.059 -3.405 -2.594 -.934 3.265 -.910 .281 Sig. .766 .953 .002 .015 .358 .003 .370 .781

c. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .885
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.400

R Square .784

Square .733

.0779075

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .659 .182 .841 df 7 30 37 Mean Square .094 .006 F 15.518 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, LIQ, GROW, TANG, ROA, NDTS, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B -.078 .063 -.121 -.106 -.084 -4.816 .039 .048 Std. Error .570 .045 .173 .134 .012 1.934 .023 .034 .165 -.064 -.092 -.714 -.280 .144 .122 Coefficients Beta t -.137 1.386 -.696 -.795 -7.102 -2.490 1.648 1.393 Sig. .892 .176 .492 .433 .000 .019 .110 .174

5. NGNH D C a. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .739
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.066

R Square .545

Square .498

.1530519

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, LIQ, NDTS, TANG, ROA, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1.884 1.569 3.453 df 7 67 74 Mean Square .269 .023 F 11.487 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, LIQ, NDTS, TANG, ROA, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV B 1.577 -.074 -1.298 -.056 -.045 -.749 -.004 .081 Std. Error .612 .051 .337 .135 .007 1.068 .012 .030 -.168 -.370 -.040 -.658 -.069 -.032 .235 Coefficients Beta t 2.577 -1.451 -3.854 -.413 -6.609 -.702 -.374 2.719 Sig. .012 .151 .000 .681 .000 .485 .710 .008

b. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .686
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.158

R Square .470

Square .415

.0665639

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, LIQ, NDTS, TANG, ROA, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .264 .297 .561 df 7 67 74 Mean Square .038 .004 F 8.502 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, LIQ, NDTS, TANG, ROA, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV B .148 -.012 -.218 .357 .000 -1.054 -.002 .041 Std. Error .266 .022 .146 .059 .003 .464 .005 .013 -.067 -.154 .633 -.030 -.242 -.029 .292 Coefficients Beta t .556 -.531 -1.490 6.058 -.281 -2.270 -.317 3.122 Sig. .580 .597 .141 .000 .780 .026 .752 .003

c. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .819
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.212

R Square .671

Square .637

.1362636

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, LIQ, NDTS, TANG, ROA, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 2.543 1.244 3.787 df 7 67 74 Mean Square .363 .019 F 19.564 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, LIQ, NDTS, TANG, ROA, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B .688 .007 -1.523 -.484 -.041 .491 .000 .038 Std. Error .545 .045 .300 .120 .006 .951 .010 .027 .016 -.414 -.330 -.565 .043 .003 .106 Coefficients Beta t 1.263 .165 -5.081 -4.014 -6.677 .517 .035 1.435 Sig. .211 .869 .000 .000 .000 .607 .972 .156

6. NGNH MAY M C a. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .856
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.411

R Square .732

Square .634

.1285994

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, NDTS, SIZE, TANG, LIQ, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .860 .314 1.174 df 7 19 26 Mean Square .123 .017 F 7.427 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, NDTS, SIZE, TANG, LIQ, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV B 1.845 -.062 -3.547 -.357 -.123 -.004 .080 .064 Std. Error 1.181 .090 .981 .201 .062 1.235 .056 .035 -.150 -.854 -.338 -.360 .000 .174 .375 Coefficients Beta t 1.562 -.688 -3.617 -1.776 -1.992 -.003 1.420 1.838 Sig. .135 .500 .002 .092 .061 .998 .172 .082

b. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .718
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.563

R Square .516

Square .338

.1403895

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, NDTS, SIZE, TANG, LIQ, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .399 .374 .774 df 7 19 26 Mean Square .057 .020 F 2.894 Sig. .031
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, NDTS, SIZE, TANG, LIQ, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV B .094 .018 -2.413 .232 .069 -3.384 .031 .014 Std. Error 1.289 .098 1.071 .219 .068 1.348 .061 .038 .053 -.716 .271 .246 -.420 .082 .103 Coefficients Beta t .073 .182 -2.254 1.058 1.014 -2.510 .499 .375 Sig. .943 .858 .036 .303 .323 .021 .624 .712

c. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .902
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.312

R Square .814

Square .746

.0932368

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, NDTS, SIZE, TANG, LIQ, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares .725 .165 .890 df 7 19 26 Mean Square .104 .009 F 11.909 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, NDTS, SIZE, TANG, LIQ, ROA b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B 1.751 -.079 -1.135 -.589 -.192 3.380 .049 .050 Std. Error .856 .065 .711 .146 .045 .895 .041 .025 -.222 -.314 -.642 -.643 .391 .123 .335 Coefficients Beta t 2.045 -1.223 -1.596 -4.044 -4.274 3.776 1.207 1.971 Sig. .055 .236 .127 .001 .000 .001 .242 .063

7. NGNH XI MNG a. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.1)

Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .799
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.210

R Square .639

Square .597

.1477456

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, ROA, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 2.318 1.310 3.628 df 7 60 67 Mean Square .331 .022 F 15.172 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, ROA, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LEV B -.186 .088 -1.884 -.043 -.056 -.807 .087 .015 Std. Error .459 .041 .494 .104 .017 .666 .076 .043 .250 -.409 -.045 -.342 -.103 .102 .028 Coefficients Beta t -.404 2.130 -3.813 -.410 -3.344 -1.212 1.144 .351 Sig. .687 .037 .000 .683 .001 .230 .257 .727

b. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.2)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .872
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.162

R Square .760

Square .732

.1143021

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, ROA, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 2.479 .784 3.262 df 7 60 67 Mean Square .354 .013 F 27.102 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, ROA, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: LLEV B -1.444 .126 -1.153 .419 .036 -.433 .162 .018 Std. Error .355 .032 .382 .081 .013 .515 .059 .033 .380 -.264 .459 .231 -.058 .199 .035 Coefficients Beta t -4.068 3.967 -3.017 5.189 2.760 -.842 2.736 .534 Sig. .000 .000 .004 .000 .008 .403 .008 .596

c. HM H I QUY T NG TH (4.3)
Tm t t m hnh (Model Summary) Adjusted R Model 1 R .888
a

Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 2.059

R Square .788

Square .764

.0843746

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, ROA, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV Phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) Model 1 Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 1.590 .427 2.018 df 7 60 67 Mean Square .227 .007 F 31.915 Sig. .000
a

a. Bi n c l p: (Constant), RISK, GROW, ROA, NDTS, TANG, LIQ, SIZE b. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV

H s h i quy (Coefficients) Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 (Constant) SIZE ROA TANG LIQ NDTS GROW RISK a. Bi n ph thu c: SLEV B 1.350 -.044 -.856 -.477 -.092 -.496 -.076 .004 Std. Error .262 .023 .282 .060 .010 .380 .044 .025 -.169 -.249 -.666 -.759 -.085 -.120 .011 Coefficients Beta t 5.152 -1.879 -3.033 -8.008 -9.684 -1.305 -1.753 .181 Sig. .000 .065 .004 .000 .000 .197 .085 .857