Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 22, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 22, 2013

Highlights
US Unemployment Claims rose to 362,000 for w/e on 15 February. German Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1-mark in current month. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was at -12.5-level in February. UKs CBI Industrial Order Expectations was at -14-level in February. US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3 percent in January as against a rise of 0.1 percent in December. Unemployment Claims rose by 20,000 to 362,000 for the week ending on 15th February from earlier increase of 342,000 in prior week. Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 55.2-mark in February as compared to 55.8level in January. Existing Home Sales rose to 4.92 million in January with respect to rise of 4.90 million a month ago. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was at -12.5-level in February when compared to earlier fall of 5.8-mark in last month. Mortgage Delinquencies was at 7.09 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise of 7.4 percent in Q3 of 2012.
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Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5852.3 19325.4 13880.62 1502.4 16009.6 2015.2 58497.8 11309.1 92.84 1578.20 2869.50 7852.00 102.09 Prev. day -1.5 -1.6 -0.3 -0.6 -3.1 -0.5 0.2 -1.4 -1.7 0.0 0.3 -1.4 0.0

as on February 21, 2013 WoW -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -1.2 -3.2 1.8 0.7 -0.1 -4.3 -3.5 -7.0 -4.7 0.0 0.4 MoM -2.8 -3.0 0.4 1.1 -10.5 2.6 -5.6 4.1 -3.2 -4.7 -9.5 0.1 YoY 6.3 5.7 7.3 10.5 -3.3 3.8 -11.1 18.4 -12.6 -10.8 -16.2 -7.1 -1.6

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from the US and Euro Zone also supported an upside in the DX. Further, US equities also traded on a negative note which also acted as a positive factor for the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 81.63 and closed at 81.55 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.55 54.47 54.56 54.55 Prev. day 0.5 -0.7 0.69 0.67

as on February 21, 2013 WoW 1.3 -0.9 0.98 0.96 MoM 1.9 -1.4 1.25 1.24 YoY 2.6 -9.7 10.55 10.53

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated sharply by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated as a result of US Federal Reserve statement on Thursday that central bank may slow or stop monthly bond buying program before the expected deadline. Apart from that, global and domestic market sentiments also traded on a weak note which exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee. It touched an intra-day low of 54.61 and closed at 54.47 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.21,880.50 crores ($4,103.19 million) as on 21st February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.43,939.50 crores ($8,162.50 million) till 21st February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can happen as a result of auction of $10 billion of government & corporate bonds for foreign investors in todays trade. Further, weakness in the DX will also prevent sharp fall in the Indian Rupee.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for February 22, 2013 Support 54.35/54.20 Resistance 54.75/54.90

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 22, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent yesterday taking cues from French Flash Services PMI declined by 0.9 points to 42.7-mark in current month from earlier rise of 43.6-level in January. German Flash Services PMI fell by 1.6 points to 54.1-level in February with respect to rise of 55.7-mark in prior month. European Flash Manufacturing PMI declined marginally by 0.1 point to 47.8-mark in February when compared to rise of 47.9level in January. European Flash Services PMI dropped by 1.3 points to 47.3-level in current month as against a rise of 48.6-mark in earlier month. Strength in the DX along with weak global market sentiments also added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.7 points to 43.6-level in February as against a rise of 42.9-mark in January.. German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.3 points to 50.1mark in February as compared to rise of 49.8-level in January. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.316 and closed at 1.3188 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on account of weak global market sentiments. However sharp downside in the currency will be prevented as a result of German Ifo Business Climate and Italian Retail Sales expected to come on a positive note. Weakness in the DX will also cushion sharp fall in the Euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 71.75/71.56 72.25/72.55 valid for February 22, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3188 72.14 71.88 71.9 Prev. day -0.7 0.3 -0.92 -0.91

as on February 21, 2013 WoW -1.3 -0.3 -0.11 -0.12 MoM -1.4 -0.6 0.29 0.29 10.13 10.11 YoY -0.4

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5253 83.129 83.14 Prev. day 0.13 0.96 0.28

as on February 21, 2013

WoW -1.5 -0.48 -0.73

MoM -3.4 -2.38 -2.82

YoY -2.6 6.77 6.62

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of Public Sector Net Borrowing declined by 9.9 billion Pounds in January as against a rise of 12.4 billion Pounds in December. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations was at -14-level in February from earlier fall of 20-mark in January. However, sharp upside in the currency was not witnessed on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5134 and closed at 1.5253 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 22, 2013 Support 82.80/82.30 Resistance 83.45/83.80

83.14

0.28

-0.73

-2.78

6.63

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 22, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 92.76 and closed at 93.10 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook Technical Chart JPY For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 22, 2013 Support 58.30/57.90 Resistance 58.90/59.20 Last 93.1 0.5848 58.66 58.69 Prev day -0.5 1.28 1.26 1.28 as on February 21, 2013 WoW 0.3 0.79 1.02 1.08 MoM 3.1 -2.53 -2.59 -2.51 YoY 16.0 -5.31 -5.14 -5.11

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on February 22, 2013

Indicator German Ifo Business Climate EU Economic Forecast Belgium NBB Business Climate FOMC Member Powell Speaks Country Euro Euro Euro US Time (IST) 2:30pm 3:30pm 7:30pm 9:00pm Actual Forecast 104.9 -11.1 Previous 104.2 -13.2 Impact High Medium Medium Medium

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