Weather Briefing February 24, 2013---Page 1

In this update: The next system affects the area starting tonight Heavy rainfall likely with severe storms possible
Overview:
A stalled frontal boundary left over from the previous storm system to affect our region earlier this weekend will combine with an approaching strong storm system to produce another round of very heavy rainfall and severe weather starting late tonight and continuing through Monday. While the primary threat with this storm system will be flash flooding from heavy rainfall, this system is expected to be strong enough to generate sufficient wind shear and marginal instability for a few storms Monday afternoon and evening to be strong to severe. The main threat window for severe weather appears to be from mid afternoon Monday through late Monday night.

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What has already fallen across the region:

The image above depicts rainfall amounts that have fallen over the last few days. Areas in red indicate rainfall amounts in excess of 6 to 8 inches. Notice that much of the region has experienced heavy rainfall over the past few days, which will only make the potential for flash flooding, followed by dangerous river flooding, that much more likely.

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The next weather system: This next storm system will present a dual hazardous weather threat to the region. Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern and of the greatest duration. There is also a window of opportunity for severe weather across the region, especially if warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico can move further inland. The image below depicts the area most at risk for severe weather starting Monday afternoon.

The threat with this system will initially Monday afternoon be for predominantly isolated tornadoes as the warm front associated with this system moves inland. Then, later Monday evening and especially Monday night, a strong squall line is expected to move through the forecast area. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this squall line. The severe weather threat may briefly last through daybreak on Tuesday across areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. The severe weather threat should end by midday Tuesday.

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Flooding Hazards with this system:

The latest computer models indicate that widespread rainfall totals of as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain could be possible across Southeast Alabama and into Southwestern Georgia. Lesser values are expected further to the southeast across the Florida Big Bend. The bulk of the rainfall is expected to fall across areas already saturated from previous rains. This will create a dangerous and potentially significant flash flood risk across the area. As a result, a flash flood watch is in effect for a large portion of the forecast area through Monday night.

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River flooding is still a significant concern with many area rivers rising into minor flood stage with additional rises expected. Several of the river forecast points have active flood warnings. Make sure to check the latest forecast for the gages in your ccounty. To do this, please visit our AHPS page by going to: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

To summarize, our river forecasts indicate the following crest stages:

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Timing of this system:

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Summary: ** More heavy rainfall is expected starting tonight through Tuesday morning. Flash flooding potential will be significant across Southeast Alabama, Southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, especially by Monday afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible. ** Some storms could be strong to severe starting Monday afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours. ** Potentially significant river flooding, with some locations reaching major flood, likely may follow in the days ahead. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*284.