Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

Highlights
UKs BBA Mortgage Approvals declined by 1,100 to 32,300 in Jan. US markets declined sharply around 1.5 percent in yesterdays trade. Indian Rupee gained by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session. Asian markets are trading lower today taking cues from concerns over the result of Italys election which may lead to reemergence of the Euro Zone debt crisis. Italys elections results shows that partial elections have been won by the Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, which may have built a blocking minority in Senate to deny victory to Pier Luigi Bersani. Mr. Bersani, was leading the race in the opinion polls campaign which was held two months ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5854.8 19331.7 13784.17 1487.9 16352.0 2009.5 58497.8 11662.5 93.11 1586.20 2898.30 7830.00 102.09 0.0 Prev. day 0.1 0.1 -1.5 -1.8 0.7 -0.5 0.2 2.4 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.2

as on February 25, 2013 WoW -0.7 -0.9 -1.4 -2.1 -0.3 1.4 1.5 -0.1 -2.9 -1.1 -2.9 -3.6 0.0 MoM -3.6 -3.8 -0.7 -1.0 -5.4 3.6 -2.5 4.7 -3.5 -4.5 -5.8 -0.2 0.2 YoY 7.8 5.7 6.2 8.9 -0.8 3.5 -10.3 20.9 -15.2 -10.6 -18.0 -7.9 -1.5

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, expectations that Italy will not be able to form a government by majority votes also supported an upside in the DX. Further, US equities traded lower which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.01 and closed at 81.78 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated as a result of selling of dollars by the custodian banks and in non-delivery forward markets. Additionally, expectations of positive budget by the government also supported an upside in the currency. Further, upbeat domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX in the early part of the trade also supported an upside in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 53.86 and closed at 53.87 against dollar on Monday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.23,247.60 th crores ($4,354.17 million) as on 25 February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.45,306.60 crores ($8,413.50 million) till 25th February 2013. Outlook

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.78 53.99 53.88 53.88 Prev. day 0.2 0.5 -0.75 -0.75

as on February 25, 2013 WoW 1.5 0.5 -0.79 -0.81 MoM 2.4 0.1 0.34 0.33 YoY 2.9 -9.2 9.97 9.95

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable budget from the Finance Minister on Thursday.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for February 26, 2013 Support 54.02/53.88 Resistance 54.40/54.70

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 1.0 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of fears that Italys election results wont be able to form the government in the majority which lead to return of the Euro Zone debt crisis. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, weak global market sentiments also added downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3047 and closed at 1.3062 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, expectations that Italys election result will not be able to form the government by the majority will also add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 71.65/71.50 71.95/72.10 valid for February 26, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3062 71.19 71.52 71.5 Prev. day -1.0 0.4 -0.06 -0.05

as on February 25, 2013 WoW -2.2 2.0 -1.30 -1.34 MoM -2.9 2.0 -0.07 -0.09 8.98 8.97 YoY -2.9

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.516 81.696 81.64 Prev. day 0.00 -0.71 -1.50

as on February 25, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound traded on a flat note and declined marginally in yesterdays trading session on the back of British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals declined by 1,100 to 32,300 in January as against a rise of 33,400 in December. Additionally, strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.507 and closed at 1.516 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments. Strength in the DX will also exert downside pressure on the currency. Further, any negative statement from Bank of England (BOE) Governor King Speech can also act as a negative factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 26, 2013 Support 81.70/81.40 Resistance

WoW -2.0 -2.59 -2.85

MoM -3.4 -3.58 -3.95

YoY -4.6 4.99 5.44

81.66

-1.49

-2.81

-3.94

5.46

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

82.40/82.80

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 1.7 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, corporate prices index data came on a favorable note which also supported an upside in the currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 90.92 and closed at 91.79 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 26, 2013 Support 57.60/57.40 Resistance 58.05/58.30 Last 91.79 0.5831 57.45 57.48 Prev day -1.7 0.34 -1.37 -1.35 as on February 25, 2013 WoW -2.3 0.74 -0.69 -0.63 MoM 1.0 -1.64 -4.19 -4.13 YoY 13.4 -3.41 -5.57 -5.52

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on February 26, 2013

Indicator BOE Gov King Speaks Inflation Report Hearings CBI Realized Sales S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies New Home Sales Country UK UK UK US US US US Time (IST) 11:30am 3:30pm 4:30pm 7:30pm 8:30pm 8:30pm 8:30pm Actual Forecast 16 6.7% 60.8 381K Previous 17 5.5% 58.6 369K Impact High High Medium Medium High High High

www.angelbroking.com