Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104view:

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
UKs BBA Mortgage Approvals declined by 1,100 to 32,300 in Jan. US markets declined sharply around 1.5 percent in yesterdays trade. Indian Rupee gained by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session. Asian markets are trading lower today taking cues from concerns over the result of Italys election which may lead to reemergence of the Euro Zone debt crisis. Italys elections results shows that partial elections have been won by the Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, which may have built a blocking minority in Senate to deny victory to Pier Luigi Bersani. Mr. Bersani, was leading the race in the opinion polls campaign which was held two months ago. US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, expectations that Italy will not be able to form a government by majority votes also supported an upside in the DX. Further, US equities traded lower which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.01 and closed at 81.78 on Monday. Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated as a result of selling of dollars by the custodian banks and in non-delivery forward markets. Additionally, expectations of positive budget by the government also supported an upside in the currency. Further, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 53.86 and closed at 53.87 against dollar on Monday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.23,247.60 th crores ($4,354.17 million) as on 25 February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.45,306.60 crores ($8,413.50 million) till 25th February 2013. UKs British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals declined by 1,100 to 32,300 in January as against a rise of 33,400 in December.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 53.985 Prev day 0.5

as on 25 February, 2013 w-o-w 0.5 m-o-m 0.1 y-o-y -9.2

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3062

-1.0

-2.2

-2.9

-2.9

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.78

0.2

1.5

2.4

2.9

5854.8

0.1

-0.7

-3.6

7.8

SENSEX

19331.7

0.1

-0.9

-3.8

5.7

DJIA

13784.2

-1.5

-1.4

-0.7

6.2

S&P

1487.9

-1.8

-2.1

-1.0

8.9

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 1.0 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of fears that Italys election results wont be able to form the government in the majority which lead to return of the Euro Zone debt crisis. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, weak global market sentiments also added downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3047 and closed at 1.3062 against dollar on Monday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices increased around 0.9 percent on the back of gold behaving as a safe haven asset for the investors after rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the gold prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1,596.80/oz and closed at $1,593.90/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices gained by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.29,617/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs.29,675/10 gms on Monday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1593.9 Prev. day 0.9 as on 25 February, 2013 WoW -1.0 MoM -3.7 YoY -10.1

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (April13) MCX Gold (April13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

29300.0

0.2

-1.4

-3.4

2.8

1586.3

0.6

-1.5

-4.2

-10.8

$/oz

1586.2

0.9

-1.1

-4.5

-10.6

Rs /10 gms

29617.0

0.4

-1.9

-2.4

Silver
Taking cues from rise in gold prices, Spot silver prices rose by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as result of downside in the base metals pack coupled with strength in the DX. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $29.24/oz and closed at $29.0/oz on Monday. On the domestic front, prices increased by 1.3 percent and closed at Rs.53,972/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.54,190/kg in yesterdays trade. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Mar13) MCX Silver (Mar13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 29.0 55390.0 Prev day 1.1 0.4

Source: Reuters

as on 25 February, 2013 WoW -3.1 -3.7 MoM -5.9 -4.7 YoY -18.0 -4.9

$/oz $/ oz

2917.0 2898.3

1.3 1.9

-2.8 -2.9

-5.5 -5.8

-18.0 -18.0

Rs / kg

53972.0

1.3

-4.0

-6.6

Outlook
Technical Chart Spot Gold In the intraday, we expect precious metals will act as a safe haven asset and will trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Strength in the DX will also add downside pressure on the precious metal prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee will support gains in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Mar13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for February 26, 2013 Support 1592/1586 29520/29410 28.90/28.65 53600/53200 Resistance 1601/1606 29700/29780 29.25/29.44 54250/54600

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

International Commodities
Energy
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
as on 25 February, 2013 WoW -3.3 -2.4 -2.9 MoM -3.3 0.5 -3.5 YoY -15.2 -8.5 -15.2

Crude Oil
Crude Oil Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 92.7 115.7 93.1

Nymex crude oil prices traded on a flat note and declined marginally in yesterdays trade taking cues from concerns over the results Italys election which may lead to Euro Zone debt crisis thus affecting the demand for the fuel. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $92.07/bbl and closed at $93.10/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.4 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,051/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5,026/bbl on Monday. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending on 22nd February 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.4 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to fall by 1.0 million barrels for the same week. Outlook In todays session, we expect crude oil prices to trade with negative bias due to expectations of Italys election results will not be able to form the government in majority thus creating the Euro Zone debt crisis. Strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments also added downside pressure on the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude March 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for February 26, 2013

WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (April 13) ICE Brent Crude (March13) MCX Crude (Mar 13)

Prev. day -0.4 0.7 0.0

$/bbl

114.4

0.3

-2.5

0.8

-8.8

Rs/bbl

5051.0

-0.4

-2.6

-3.1

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Mar 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.471 183.9

(% change)

as on 25 February, 2013

Prev. day 5.89 3.49

WoW 9.36 6.36

MoM 0.64 -1.39

YoY 36.22 48.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Support 91.92/91.01 5020/4970

Resistance 93.20/93.94 5090/5130

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a negative note on the back of concerns over the results of Italys election which recreated the Euro Zone debt crisis. Further, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, mixed LME inventories also acted as a negative factor for the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on the prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Feb13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Feb13) Rs /kg 107.7 -1.4 -5.1 -1.1 $/tonne 2034.3 -0.6 -4.2 -0.6 -12.4 Rs/kg 422.5 -0.3 -4.5 -3.6 $/tonne Last 7830.0 Prev. day 0.2 as on 25 February, 2013 WoW -3.6 MoM -0.2 YoY -7.9

Copper
Copper the leader of the base metal pack rose by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of rise in the LME Copper inventories by 1.5 percent which stood at 430,725 tonnes. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7,902.50/tonne and closed at $7,830.0/tonne in the yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices fell by 0.3 percent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.422.50/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs.420.80/kg on Monday. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade lower on the back of concerns over the Italys election results coupled with weak global market sentiments. Additionally, strength in the DX will also add downside pressure on the prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp downside in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Feb13 MCX Zinc Feb 13 MCX Lead Feb 13 MCX Aluminum Feb13 MCX Nickel Feb 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for February 26, 2013 Support 420/418 111.80/111.0 123.0/122.20 107.0/106.30 892/885 Resistance 425/427 113.20/114.0 124.50/125.40 108.30/109.0 907/915

LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Feb13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead Feb13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Feb13)

$/tonne

16714.0

-1.4

-6.8

-4.9

-17.1

Rs /kg

899.1

-2.0

-7.3

-5.2

$/tonne

2295.0

-0.5

-4.4

-3.6

4.0

Rs /kg

123.8

-0.8

-4.5

-3.4

$/tonne

2086.3

0.0

-3.2

0.3

0.4

Rs /kg

112.4

0.1

-3.2

0.6

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 25 February 430,725 5,157,100 155,568 1,180,650 287,925
th

22 February 424,350 5,164,200 154,500 1,185,150 288,025

nd

Actual Change 6,375 -7,100 1,068 -4,500 -100

(%) Change 1.5 -0.1 0.7 -0.4 0.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| February 26, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator BOE Gov King Speaks Inflation Report Hearings CBI Realized Sales S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies New Home Sales Country UK UK UK US US US US Time (IST) 11:30am 3:30pm 4:30pm 7:30pm 8:30pm 8:30pm 8:30pm Actual Forecast 16 6.7% 60.8 381K Previous 17 5.5% 58.6 369K Impact High High Medium Medium High High High

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