Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Highlights
German Ifo Business Climate rose to 107.4-mark in February. Italian Retail Sales rose by 0.2 percent for the month of December. German Final GDP remained unchanged at -0.6 percent in Q4 2012. Belgium NBB Business Climate was at -11-mark in current month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of expectations of aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.9 points to 50.4mark in February as against a rise of 52.3-level in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI 5850.3 19317.0 14000.57 1515.6 16233.3 2018.9 58497.8 11385.9 93.13 1572.40 2845.60 7817.25 102.09 Prev. day 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 0.0

as on February 22, 2013 WoW -0.6 -0.8 0.2 -0.3 -1.6 1.9 1.0 -0.1 -4.3 -2.3 -6.2 -5.1 0.0 MoM -3.7 -3.9 0.8 1.5 -9.3 3.7 -4.4 2.4 -2.9 -4.8 -8.7 -0.4 0.4 YoY 7.8 5.6 7.8 11.5 -0.5 3.4 -11.3 18.7 -13.6 -11.9 -19.9 -6.8 -1.7

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 1.3 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from the US and Euro Zone also supported an upside in the DX. Further, US equities also traded on a mixed note which also acted as a positive factor for the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of German manufacturing and business confidence data coming on a positive note in the last week. The currency touched a weekly high of 81.70 and closed at 81.585 on Friday.

BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent. The currency appreciated as a result of rise in the foreign fund inflows after auction of $10 billion of government & corporate bonds for foreign investors on Friday. Further, expectations that Finance Minister will solve the fiscal deficit problem in the coming budget will act as a positive factor for the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of US Federal Reserve statement on Thursday that central bank may slow or stop monthly bond buying program before the expected deadline. Apart from that, global and domestic market sentiments also traded on a weak note which exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee. It touched high of 54.015 in the last week and closed at 54.265 against dollar on Friday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.23,035.40 crores ($4,315.18 million) as on 22nd February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.45,094.40 crores ($8,374.50 million) till 22nd February 2013.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.59 54.27 54.29 54.29 Prev. day 0.0 0.4 -0.49 -0.47

as on February 22, 2013 WoW 1.3 0.1 -0.08 -0.09 MoM 2.2 -0.9 1.01 1.00 YoY 2.7 -9.5 10.08 10.06

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for February 25, 2013 Support 54.10/53.90 Resistance 54.45/54.60

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Monday| February 25, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 1.3 percent in the last week taking cues from decline in Euro Zone manufacturing and services PMI data. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of German and French manufacturing coming on a positive note. Further, fall in the currency was prevented as a result of German Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at -0.6 percent in the Q4 of 2012. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 107.4-mark in February from earlier rise of 104.2-level in January. Italian Retail Sales rose by 0.2 percent in December as compared to decline of 0.4 percent a month ago. Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate was at 11-mark in February with respect to fall of 13.2-level in January. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.3144 and closed at 1.3188 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 71.30/71.0 71.80/72.10 valid for February 25, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3188 71.50 71.56 71.6 Prev. day 0.0 0.9 -0.45 -0.46

as on February 22, 2013 WoW -1.3 1.4 -1.16 -1.19 MoM -2.0 1.4 -0.32 -0.32 9.67 9.66 YoY -1.3

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.516 82.282 82.88 Prev. day -0.61 -1.02 -0.31

as on February 22, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound depreciated sharply by 2.3 percent in the last week on the back of unexpected rise in the countrys unemployment rate. Additionally, strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was not witnessed on account of decline in Claimant Count Change data and rise in the CBI Industrial Order Expectations. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly low of 1.5134 and closed at 1.516 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX will also support upside in the currency. Further, British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals expected to come on a favorable note will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 25, 2013 Support 82.60/82.30 Resistance

WoW -2.3 -2.40 -1.52

MoM -4.1 -3.46 -2.82

YoY -3.7 6.67 6.94

82.89

-0.30

-1.50

-2.79

6.95

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

83.15/83.50

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.1 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. In addition, increase in the industry activity also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside was capped on account of deficit in the countrys trade balance data. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) was at 0.2 percent in January from earlier fall of 0.4 percent a month ago. The Yen touched a high of 92.76 in the last week and closed at 93.38 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of corporate price index coming on a favorable note. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 25, 2013 Support 58.0/57.75 Resistance 58.55/58.90
Source: Telequote

as on February 22, 2013 Last 93.38 0.5811 58.25 58.26 Prev day 0.3 -0.63 -0.70 -0.73 WoW -0.1 0.00 -0.72 -0.69 MoM 2.7 -4.42 -3.84 -3.81 YoY 16.8 -5.23 -5.28 -5.21

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on February 25, 2013

Indicator HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Italian Parliamentary Election BBA Mortgage Approvals German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Country China Euro UK Euro Time (IST) 7:15am Day 2 3:00pm 9:00pm Actual 50.4 Forecast 52.2 34.2K Previous 52.3 33.6K Impact High High Medium Medium

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