Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 28, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst Vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 3935 8130 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 28, 2013

Highlights
US Core Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.9 percent in January. German Consumer Climate rose by 0.1 point to 5.9-mark in February. US Pending Home Sales rose by 4.5 percent in the last month. Japans Prelim Industrial Production rose by 1 percent in January. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of more than expected rise in the US economic data which shows signs of the global economic growth. US Core Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.9 percent in January as against a rise of 1 percent a month ago. Durable Goods Orders declined by 5.2 percent in January from earlier rise of 4.3 percent in December. Pending Home Sales rose by 4.5 percent in last month as compared to decline of 1.9 percent in prior month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5796.9 19152.4 14075.37 1516.0 15827.0 2004.0 58497.8 11254.0 92.76 1595.20 2894.30 7863.75 102.09 Prev. day 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.8 0.2 0.2 -1.3 0.1 -1.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0

as on February 27, 2013 WoW -2.5 -2.5 1.1 0.3 -4.2 -1.0 4.1 -0.1 -1.8 1.1 0.9 -1.3 -0.1 0.4 MoM -4.3 -4.3 1.2 0.9 -8.6 2.0 -1.4 -0.1 -5.3 -3.9 -7.6 0.2 YoY 7.8 4.7 8.2 10.7 -3.2 2.6 -11.1 15.8 -12.9 -10.7 -16.3 -8.2 -1.6

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. In addition, favorable economic data from the US coupled with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke supporting the US Federal Reserve bond buying program also exerted downside pressure on the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 81.56 and closed at 81.67 on Wednesday.

Dollar/INR
Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated as a result of expectations that government will deliver a proper allocated budget for 2013-14 which will attract foreign fund flows. Additionally, expectations that Finance Minister will reveal measures to boost the investments, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of dollar demand from oil and defence companies. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 53.615 and closed at 53.86 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.23,513.60 crores ($4,403.38 million) as on 26th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.45,572.60 crores ($8,462.70 million) till 26th February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped on account of month end dollar demand from oil, defense companies and importers. Further, countrys GDP is expected to decline along with any negative statement in the Federal Budget which will be announced by Finance Minister in todays trading session.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.67 53.86 54.18 54.17 Prev. day -0.3 0.4 0.19 0.19

as on February 27, 2013 WoW 0.6 0.4 -0.01 -0.02 MoM 3.0 -1.2 0.89 0.88 YoY 2.8 -9.1 9.10 9.09

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for February 28, 2013 Support 53.90/53.70 Resistance 54.40/54.60

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 28, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of smooth auction of Italian 10 year government bonds around $5 billion. Further, comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that central banks has no intentions of tightening monetary policy coupled with positive economic data also acted as a positive factor for the currency. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported Euro to gain strength. But the sharp appreciation in the Euro was capped as the uncertainty in the Italy persists. GfK German Consumer Climate rose by 0.1 point to 5.9-mark in February as against a rise of 5.8-level in January. German Import Prices increased by 0.1 percent in January from earlier decline of 0.5 percent in December. M3 Money Supply rose by 3.5 percent in January as compared to rise of 3.4 percent a month ago. Private Loans declined by 0.9 percent in last month with respect to fall of 0.7 percent in December. European Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) declined by 1.4 points to 44.5-level in February when compared to rise of 45.-mark a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3147 and closed at 1.3138 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of positive German and European Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.60/70.25 71.10/71.40 valid for February 28, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3138 70.40 70.95 70.9 Prev. day 0.6 0.4 0.46 0.46

as on February 27, 2013 WoW -1.1 2.7 -2.21 -2.20 MoM -3.2 2.4 -0.87 -0.89 6.64 6.60 YoY -2.5

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5157 81.699 82.05 Prev. day 0.22 -0.17 -0.10

as on February 27, 2013

WoW -0.5 -0.78 -1.03

MoM -4.1 -3.57 -3.46

YoY -4.7 4.94 4.21

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at -0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of Prelim Business Investment declined by 1.2 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise of 0.5 percent in Q3 of 2012. Index of Services fell by 0.1 percent in last quarter of 2012 as compared to increase of 0.6 percent in Q3 of 2012. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5187 and closed at 1.5157 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX will also support upside in the currency. Technical Outlook valid for February 28, 2013
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up Support 81.55/81.10 Resistance 82.33/82.65

82.06

-0.09

-1.03

-3.46

4.23

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| February 28, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable retail sales data also added downside pressure on the currency. Japans Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.8 points to 48.5-mark in February as against a rise of 47.7-level in January. Prelim Industrial Production rose by 1 percent in January from earlier rise of 2.5 percent a month ago. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 92.43 and closed at 92.23 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, countrys industrial production data also came on a negative note which will also exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 28, 2013 Support 58.80/58.50 Resistance 59.30/59.60
Source: Telequote

as on February 27, 2013 Last 92.23 0.5835 59.11 59.12 Prev day 0.3 -0.61 0.52 0.54 WoW -1.4 1.06 2.03 2.02 MoM 1.3 -1.57 -1.41 -1.38 YoY 14.7 -4.53 -3.89 -3.90

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on February 28, 2013

Indicator Prelim Industrial Production m/m German Prelim CPI m/m French Consumer Spending m/m German Unemployment Change CPI y/y Core CPI y/y Prelim GDP q/q Unemployment Claims Chicago PMI FOMC Member Raskin Speaks Country Japan Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am All Day 1:15pm 2:25pm 3:30pm 3:30pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:15pm 11:00pm Actual 1.0% Forecast 1.6% 0.7% -0.1% -5K 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 363K 54.6 Previous 2.5% -0.5% 0.0% -16K 2.0% 1.5% -0.1% 362K 55.6 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium

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