FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16 2012 Comment 15

Syrian spillover threatens

to spin out of control
Region feels the heat of an escalating crisis, writes Rhiad al Khouri

T
HE MAYHEM in Syria
is gradually and
inevitably spilling over
into neighbouring coun-
tries, including Israel.
On November 11, for the first time
since the Syrian rebellion erupted in
March last year, the Israelis fired
into Syria (albeit only one artillery
round as a warning shot) following
accidental Syrian shelling that hit
an Israeli army position.
Nevertheless, amid escalating
tension, the incident was signifi-
cant, following as it did the landing
of Syrian mortar shells in Israeli ter-
ritory this month. Yet, though that
shelling was errant – seemingly
caused by internal fighting in Syria
– and no damage or injuries were
reported, it sparked nervousness by
Israelis and Arabs already edgy over
Gaza, Sinai and other issues.
The earlier outbreak was itself
the latest in a series of incidents: a
week earlier three Syrian tanks had
entered the demilitarised zone on
the Golan Heights for several hours.
The movement of the armour,
which had been involved in clashes
with Syrian rebels, technically UNRELENTING
breached the decades-old ceasefire A Syrian rebel aims at
between the Jewish state and Dam- government forces in Aleppo.
ascus. Israel lodged a complaint Deterioration of security means
with the UN over this, even though the crisis is bound to continue
the movement was clearly linked to affecting Syria’s neighbours, says
the Syrian civil war, and not an act the writer PICTURE: AP
of aggression against the Israelis.
Nevertheless, Israel raised its
alert level in the Golan Heights.
That in turn came after an incident doubt this. In any case, one conclu- people in the public and private sec- Previously, Syria had kept the of Iraq.
last month when the Israeli army sion of that incident is that a certain tors in the booming regional capital PKK quiet, but the Turks now Yet, the dispersed state of
evacuated tourists from Mount amount of resilience exists in the of Erbil this year confirmed the face enclaves in northern Syria Syria’s Kurds, scattered among
Hermon after sighting dozens of country: during many periods in the ubiquity of Turkish business there). controlled by Kurds supporting other ethnicities over hundreds
armed men in civilian clothing past few years Lebanon has experi- By contrast, Ankara’s relations autonomy for their brethren in of kilometres, makes creation of a
approaching. (They turned out to be enced a range of fighting and politi- with Kurds in northern Syria, Turkey. separate, large and geographical-
Syrian rebels, stopped 500m from cal unrest, including assassinations, another side of the triangle, are Finally, the base of this triangle ly contiguous Kurdish Syrian
the ceasefire boundary, and no anti- car bombs, sit-ins, demonstrations tense. The presence on the southern links Syria’s Kurds and Erbil’s province difficult; even if it were
Israeli violence resulted.) and armed clashes. side of Syrian-Turkish border of the Kurdistan Regional Government to emerge in the convulsions of
Not acts of war, you might say, Needless to say, the Syrian crisis Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has (KRG). In this respect, a major war, any “Syrian Kurdistan”
but steady deterioration of security has deeply affected the Lebanese in led to Turkish warnings that it will player in Syria is a close ally of the wouldn’t enjoy common borders
south and south-west of Damascus the past year or so. But despite act in Syria against threatening PKK: the Democratic Union with KRG territory as presently
means such incidents are bound to violence, various key sectors of groups. That was prompted this Party, a dominant Syrian Kurd constituted.
continue, and could spin out of con- Lebanon’s economy, such as con- summer by Syrian army withdrawal faction and main element in the However, the Arab Spring has
trol. In the area in late last month, struction, banking and tourism, from Kurdish regions, which was Kurdish National Council coali- shown how the improbable
signs of fighting were apparent, and remain buoyant. Of course, the viewed by Ankara as emboldening tion linked to the KRG and quickly becomes inevitable.
nervousness palpable. macro-economic cost of political Kurds in Syria to hit Turkey in retal- opposed to Syria’s anti-state In an optimistic scenario for
That was especially true for the instability is large, and stability is iation for its anti-Damascus stance. forces (who clashed with the Kurdish nationalists – and a
city’s southern outskirts, where certainly accompanied by economic Kurds in Syria recently). nightmare for Ankara or Bagh-
Palestinian factions for or against gains. But the Lebanese have devel- To help keep the peace in Syri- dad – territory in south-east
the Syrian government clashed oped some immunity to all but the an zones they control, Syria’s Turkey and north-west Iraq
amid rising tension and violence. highest levels of violence, and life in Kurds receive basic military could in a geopolitical upheaval
Happily, Jordan, to the south, has Beirut quickly got back to normal. training in Iraqi Kurdistan. The become fair game for Kurds
so far been spared serious unrest, Yet another regional dimension Turks rely on the KRG to send demanding expansion of their
but tense Syrian refugee camps of the crisis in Syria appears on its diplomatic messages to the Syri- autonomy in Iraq and Syria.
there are becoming hotbeds of northern borders, where Turkish- THE ARAB SPRING an Kurds – a major example of Whatever the outcome of that
unrest, with incidents reported.
Lebanon last month had troubles
Arab-Kurdish triangular strategic
relations are evolving.
HAS SHOWN this was Turkish Foreign Minis-
ter Ahmet Davutoglu’s recent
process, and the other spillovers
of the Syrian crisis, tough times
that were much more dramatic. The Away from Syria, one arm of the HOW THE visit to Erbil to reiterate threats seem to be ahead for most of the
tension after a murderous car bomb
in Beirut on October 19 was huge.
triangle is represented by Turkey’s
successful economic partnership
IMPROBABLE against Syria’s Kurds.
The recent de facto Kurdish
region.
● Riad al Khouri, principal of
Predictably, the violence was with Iraq’s Kurdish region. Iraqi QUICKLY BECOMES semi-autonomy in parts of north- DEA Inc in Washington DC, is a
blamed by many on Syria and its
allies, though I and other observers
Kurdistan is now the Turks’ eighth-
biggest export destination (meeting
THE INEVITABLE ern Syria shows parallels with the
autonomous KRG-led province
Jordanian economist who lives
and works in the Middle East

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