Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 7, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 7, 2013

Highlights
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 198,000 in Feb. European Revised GDP unchanged at -0.6 percent in Q4 of 2012. US Factory Orders declined by 2 percent in the month of January. UK Halifax HPI increased by 0.5 percent in the last month. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note on the back of better than forecast economic data from US in yesterdays trade. While on the other hand, decline in profits from Samsung Electronics and Australian banks added downside pressure on the markets. US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change declined by 17,000 to 198,000 in February as against a rise of 215,000 in January. Factory Orders declined by 2 percent in January from earlier rise of 1.3 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5818.6 19252.6 14296.24 1541.5 15899.7 2020.7 58497.8 11932.3 90.43 1574.60 2876.00 7706.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.2 2.1 -0.4 0.2 0.7 -0.9 0.0

as on March 6, 2013 WoW 0.4 0.5 1.6 3.0 0.5 0.8 2.1 -0.1 -2.5 -1.3 -0.6 -2.0 -0.2 MoM -2.4 -2.0 2.2 1.9 -4.4 4.3 -0.8 5.0 -6.4 -6.1 -9.7 -1.8 0.5 YoY 11.4 5.3 12.0 14.7 -2.0 3.4 -11.4 23.8 -13.6 -7.5 -12.2 -6.5 -1.5

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed global market sentiments. In addition, US equities also traded on a mixed note in yesterdays trade which also acted as a favorable factor for the currency. However, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency capped sharp gains in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.64 and closed at 82.51 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) 82.51 54.80 54.99 54.99 Prev. day 0.4 0.3 -0.29 -0.29

as on March 6, 2013 WoW 1.0 -1.7 1.71 1.70 MoM 3.4 -3.1 3.03 3.02 YoY 3.8 -8.1 8.65 8.66

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of selling of dollars from exporters and some custodian banks. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX in the early part of the trade also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as result of dollar demand from importers and oil refiners. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 54.61 and closed at 54.80 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.65.80 crores th ($8.57 million) as on 6 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.46,563.90 crores ($8,643.20 million) till 6th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of dollar demand from importers and oil refiners. .However, mixed global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the currency.

US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for March 7, 2013 Support 54.80/54.60 Resistance 55.20/55.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 7, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trade as the revised GDP showed that Euro zone growth declines by 0.6 percent coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of expectation among the investors that ECB may ease monetary policy. Further, optimistic global market sentiments also prevented depreciation in the currency. European Revised GDP remains unchanged at -0.6 percent in Q4 of 2012. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2961 and closed at 1.2965 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on account of mixed global market sentiment coupled with forecast of fall in the German Factory orders. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of expectations of monetary policy easing from ECB. Market participants will keep a close watch on ECB rate decision which will be announced today. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.55/71.40 71.85/72.10 valid for March 7, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2965 71.21 71.69 71.7 Prev. day -0.7 0.3 -0.21 -0.24

as on March 6, 2013 WoW -1.3 -1.2 1.51 1.49 MoM -4.1 0.8 -0.73 -0.76 7.86 7.86 YoY -1.1

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5016 82.046 82.98 Prev. day -0.72 -1.30 -0.73

as on March 6, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.72 percent yesterday on expectation that Bank of England (BOE) may resume the bond buying programme coupled with Strength in the DX. However, positive Halifax HPI data from UK cushioned further downfall. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.5 percent in February as compared to 0.3 percent decline in January. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5014 and closed at 1.5016 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of mixed global market sentiment. Further, market participants will keep a close eye on BOE interest rate decision and Asset purchase facility. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 7, 2013 Support 82.80/82.60 Resistance 83.28/83.60

WoW -0.9 0.26 1.03

MoM -4.1 -1.45 -0.75

YoY -4.5 3.64 4.06

82.98

-0.73

1.03

-0.78

4.03

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 7, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.8 percent yesterday as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 94.11 and closed at 94.06 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook Technical Chart JPY For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, expectations of stimulus measures from central bank of the country will also add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 7, 2013 Support 58.75/58.60 Resistance 59.05/59.30 Last 94.06 0.5826 58.87 58.87 Prev day 0.8 -1.04 -0.57 -0.53 as on March 6, 2013 WoW 2.0 -0.77 0.10 0.12 MoM 0.5 -98.98 3.21 3.20 YoY 16.3 -6.63 -5.77 -5.76

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on March 7, 2013

Indicator Beige Book Monetary Policy Statement Overnight Call Rate BOJ Press Conference Spanish 10-y Bond Auction French 10-y Bond Auction German Factory Orders m/m Asset Purchase Facility Official Bank Rate MPC Rate Statement Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Trade Balance Unemployment Claims Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q FOMC Member Powell Speaks Country US Japan Japan Japan Europe Europe Europe UK UK UK Europe Europe US US US US Time (IST) 12.30 am Tentative Tentative Tentative Tentative Tentative 4:30pm 5:30pm 5:30pm Tentative 6:15pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 11:45pm Actual Forecast <0.10% 0.6% 375B 0.5% 0.75% -42.8B 354K -1.6% Previous <0.10% 5.20/1.6 2.30/3.1 0.8% 375B 0.5% 0.75% -38.5B 344K -2.0% Impact Medium High High High High Medium Medium High High High High High High High Medium Medium

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