TheFacultyofPoliticalScience UniversityofBucharest

TheAbductionofIdentity1
Compared with the Chinese we are distinctlyawareofthefuture.Butcompared with what we might be, the past is all our world. (H.G.Wells,TheDiscoveryoftheFuture,1902)

DoctoralResearchProposalby AlexandruFOTESCU

1Alternatetitle:Identityasweaponofmassabduction/WMD

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TableofCONTENTS I. II. III. ResearchAims,Objectives,andRationale Abstract LiteratureReview 1. Background 2. Rationale 3. Questions IV. Methodology 1. Strategy 2. Datacollection 3. Dataanalysis 4. ResearchContribution V. AppliedResearchCaseStudies 1. SecuringanOpenSociety:CanadasNationalSecurityPolicy 2. The(Re)ModellingoftheModernMuslimIdentity 3. CanwedistillatetheRomaniancontemporarynomos? 4. WhatwouldDisneyDo?IstheresuchathingasaDisneyApproach? 5. EasternEuropeanUnionperseveranceinanotherspath VI. VII. Timeline&Resources References

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ResearchAims ThepurposeofthisresearchistoinstrumentaliseIdentityastheunderlyingfactor foranationssustainabilityandnondependentfuture.Conceptualisedsyncretically,atthe intersectionofbehavioural,communication,andgovernancesciences,identitywillbelooked atasnomos,definedsociologically,withitsdirectimplicationsforanationseconomic securityanditssurvivability,firstandforemost.Theoverlayingaimistoshowhowthe intangibleidentityisnotonlyamatterofculturalpreferences,orpertainingonlytoa historicalpast,butisadynamiccriticalfactorinpolicyandpolitics. Objectives Thefirstpartoftheresearchwillbededicatedtodevelopingthetheoreticalanalytical structurerequiredtodefiningtheintersectionofdisciplinesnamedaboveandtheir operationalizationinamannerfitfortheirfinaluser,theorganismsofthestateandsociety whichcanactforthepreservationofaprosperous,democratic,andunboundmodernstate. Thesubsequentsectionswillbededicatedtoappliedresearch,basedonthetheoretical constructgeneratedwithinthefirstpart.Fivebroadcasestudieswillbedevelopedto exemplifythecriticalvalueofthetheoreticalconstruct.Thefivecasestudiescanbroadlybe putintotwocategoriesthosepertainingtoInternationalRelations,andthoserelatingtothe internaldevelopmentofthestate.Allfivewillhavethepotentialforpracticalapplicabilityfor theRomanianstateinacontextofglobalization. Rationale Throughouttimeandtheory,statesecurityandthepreservationofapeoplehavebeen definedmostlyinquantitativeterms:theamountofmilitaryandeconomicpoweranationcan wield,theamountofhumancapitalthatcanbemastered,andthepoliciesanimatingthe elementsofthesystem.Inqualitativeterms,clearcut,singleelementattributeshavealso beendefined,suchasintellectualability,morale,patriotism. Itishowevernecessarytohavethecapabilitytohaveaknowledgeofandtomanage thesomaticcontributionsofastate,andofthosenontangiblesubstantiveelementsthatcome intoplaywhentalkingaboutthenomos,ethos,andpathosofacountry.(Countryunderstood asthesumofpopulationrelatedelements,andthoserelatedtogovernanceandthestate apparatus). Prioranalyticalcontributionshavegoneonlyasfarasusingculturalprofilesas frameworks.Theframeworkdevelopedaroundidentitywillinfactaddressthecauses generatingtheeffectsanalysedthroughtheculturalprofilesframeworks. ~3~

 Abstract Identity,astheunderlyingmechanismanimatingpopulationsandthus,implicitly, states,aredynamicphenomenawhicharebothgeneratedandconstructed.Theabductionof identityisametaphoricalformofnamingtheintervention,intentionallyornot,thealteration oftheconstructedidentityofpeoples.Morespecifically,identityalterationscanmanifestas threatstothesustainabilityofastatewhenmanipulatedfromanadversarialstancesbyan externalactor. Identityiscommonlydefinedaspersonality,setofpreferences,inanarrowsenseof sociobehaviourism.Whatwillbeexploredinthisresearchisthesociologicalnomos,the intangibleelementsofidentity,whichbelongtoaknowledgeandawarenessbeyondthedaily mundane.Thefocuswillfalloncollectiveactors:theelites,thepeople,thegovernmentandits agencies,etc. Thebreathofthisresearchismultidimensional.Itmakesuseofknowledgeandtheory frombehavioural,communicationandgovernancesciences,modelledaroundthepracticeand conceptualframeworksofsecuritysciencesandintelligence,inordertoprovideaconvergent approach.Thetargetedgoalistodeliveraknowledgeproductformulatedintermsofriskand threatscentredonidentity.Thecomplexityofthemeansemployedandthestructureofthe finalproductwillmakeitusablewithindifferentenvironmentseconomic,political,security. Thefirstpartofthisresearchistodeconstruct,reverseengineering,andlookatthe possibilityofcounteractingtheidentityalteringeffectsinducedbymodernmedia,populist movements,liberalism,imports,culturalscapechanges,behavioursandcreeds,whichresult inmorevulnerablesocieties.Anearlyobservationisthatsuchalterationscanbeparticularly harmfulifleftuncheckedinopensocieties,whichispreciselythecaseofmostdemocratic societies. Inordertofightthelossofidentityandcongruencyofasociety,itisnecessarytofind identityalterationcountermeasures,whichinasensecanbedefinedasnationbuilding measures.Thisviewmaybesurprising,giventheearlierreferencetodemocraticsocieties. However,asthisresearchwillshow,bothestablishedandyoungdemocraciesarevulnerable tosucheffects.Addressingthevulnerabilitiesincurredbynationsbythedilutionofidentity, forgingofit,andreplacementwithcolonising,overbearingmodernities,wouldbethe practical,followingstepafterthisresearch,whichwillonlyleadtogeneratingthetheory behindit,andnotwithdevisingimplementationmethodologies. Countermeasurespertainnotonlytothesecurityapparatusorintelligence,but seekingtocoalesceEducation,humanresourcespolicyofthestate,strategy,publicdiplomacy anddiscourseoftheLegislative,Executive,JudicialtheStateatlarge.Thisiswhythis researchwillrequirethecollaborationofelementspertainingnotonlytotheacademia,but alsoofselectedinstitutionshavingfieldexpertiseinthesematters. Thenumerousideasusedinthispaperarenotmeanttoformanexhaustive explanationofthephenomenon,buttoexemplifythemeansandthewhatoftheabduction process.Thepurposeoftheresearchistoidentifythetools,thevalidationconsiderations,and thecountermeasuresastatecanadoptinordertosafeguardsitsidentity;implicitly,itsability torespondandactdecisivelyforsafeguardingitscharacter,politicalsystemandorganisation. ~4~

LiteratureReview RomanianSociologistswritingattheintersectionSociologySecurity: NicuSavu ClaudiuDegeratu DanDungaciu Thereisaverywidebaseofresearchandliteraturefor SovietIdentity, themechanismsoftotalitarianregimesSIPAseriesatColumbiaUniversity, theManufactureofConsentLippmann1922andChomsky1988 TheeffectsandpropagationofStrategicCommunicationsandBrandingBusinessand Marketingstudies. Transitionstodemocracy,StabilisationandReconstructionstudies.

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 MethodologyStrategy UsewillbemadeofsomemodelspertainingtoDynamicC2inanexerciseofstatic analysis,planninganddeploymentoverlongperiodsoftime(respectiveOODALoopand variants)inordertosuggesthowsomeoftheseconsiderationscanverywellservenotonly operationaldecisionmaking,butalsotoplanningmassive,lengthy,structural,societal alteringcampaigns. TheseparationofapproachestheheavierhandeddemocratizationapproachArab Spring,VelvetRevolutions,Iraqcampaigns,andthesofterapproach,throughbanking, mercantilism,syndicatedmedia,etc. HeavyHandedApproach: pertainstosociologyandcommunicationstudies LespritdelafouleinSecu&Intell.LeBon,Tarde,Lazarsfeld.Thecrowdeffectsand Lippmannsfeelingoftheomnicompetentcitizen(psychologyofthemasses),asthe effectsoftraditionalidentitiesgoingawash. Q1:inLippmannsterms,whichmodelcreatesthemoreinsidercitizen,thecitizenthatis morelikelytoacquiescetoagovernmentspoliciesanddirection?(organisationalintell) Q2:isitpossibleinmoderntimesforanotherschooltohavethesameexerciseof weaponisedcommunicationastheAmericans,giventheirpaternityoftheparadigm?Inthe absenceofsuchapossibility,isitrealistictohopeforasuccessfulWestEastand NorthSouthstrategiccommunication? Q3:isitnecessarythatwedevelopdistinctmethodologiesandtoolsinordertoreach thosesocietiesandcreatetheopensocietiesrequiredforourmodernisationproject,given thatcountriesliketheArabstates,andothers,limitaccesstotheinternet?RadioFree Europewouldhardlybeaneffectivetool.(RadioFreeEuropeRadioLibertycurrently coversRussia,theCaucasus,CentralAsia,SouthAsia,partsoftheMuslimworld). TheabuseofMediaasvehicleforthemanufactureofconsent.Asworldsocietyiswarned aboutsuchthings,andgiventhespecificitiesofcountries,whatareothermethods? (MuslimstateswasLawrenceofArabiareiteratedwiththeArabSpring?whatcould shakethenationalismandpatrismoftheaverageChinesecitizen?) Discreteapproach: basedonmidtolongterm,discreteconditioningofapopulation weaponofchoicepeoplesdeepestrootedconvictionsandbehavioursinnate,not learned.

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 MethodologyResearchContribution VALUEpracticalvalueofresearch,astheyapplyfordifferentsociopoliticalcultures: 1. SocialistCountries(China,Russia,Venezuela,etc) Beyondideologicallyinfluenceddiscourse,theseactorsconstantlyhighlighttheWests indoctrinationandideologicalbrainwashing,thepushingofanagenda,etc.Someofthoseare validargumentsfromourlens,consideringtheeffectsonthesocietiesitencountersit makesthemopensocietiessusceptibletoWesterninfluence. 2. Muslimcountries ItsvalidinthecontextoftheencounterbetweentheIslamicgrundwerkandthe LiberalCapitalistethos,andtheresultsitgives.Mostnotably,forWesterninterests,we shouldbeabletoobservetheglitchesandthenecessaryfinetuningrequiredforsuch liberalisationstrategiesimplementationtowork. 3. The3rdWaycountries(L.A.+S.Asia) Theymanaged,afterencounterswiththeWorldBankandsuch,tocreateafiltering bubblethatprotectsthemfromtoomuchWest.Itissignificantatleastforthehighacademic curiositylevelitincitestoknowhowtheydevisedthisidentityshieldingprotectingthem fromthedissolutionoftheirnationsethos,andinthesametimemaintainingrathergood collaborationwiththeWest. 4. Theweaponisationofthestrategy WeshallbeobservingalltheglitchesencounteredbytheFreedomWaveoftheWest, andinthesametime,lookattheothersidesunderstandingofthings.(4thwaveof democratisation.S.P.Huntington) Thiswillallowfirstandforemosttounderstandthethinkingoftheothersrelatingto theFreedomWave.Asecondensuingdeductiveprocesswillbedereverseengineering,the deconstructionofthecountermeasuresadoptedbycountriessuchasChinaforcounteracting theadvancementoftheWestinthirdcountries. Finally,Ihypothesisethatatthispointitshouldbepossible,basedonthekeyfeatures oftheWestsstrategy,andontheidentifiedkeyfeaturesoftheOtherscounterstrategy,to observe,understandandidentifytheelementsofforeignpolicyadoptedbyBRICand3rdWay istsasweaponisedidentitycreationin3rdcountries.Orchestratingadefenseonour side. 5. Testingtheresilienceofsystemsinplace Testing(throughsimulations)theresilienceofgovernments,societies,andpopulation responsestostructuralaggressionbasedonSocial,Psychological,andGovernmental Intelligence. Theusvs.themperspective: Defence Offence 1. CanadianCaseStudy 2. AntiGlobalisation3rdWayists Us 1 3 3. VelvetRevolutionsandArabSpring Them 2 4 4. BRIC,SCO,Transnistria,andothers. ~7~

[] Typesofsoftcolonisation: 1. Muslimarealacculturation 2. Developedcountriessymbiosis 3. EastEUassimilation AsocietyvulnerablebytheprocessesdescribedinPart1islesslikelytoreact,be aware,and/orfightbackmodernformsofcolonialism.BythatImeanbankingandfinancial capitalism(theeconomicdependencytheoryofManoilescuBrazilcanbeconsideredthe SyndromeoftheSouth),adoptionofgivenideologies,nonmobilizationtoprotecta countriesowninterests,resultingintherenunciationofstrategicadvantages,sucha resources,territory,disadvantageouscontracts,etc. Ratherthananinabilitytobeawareofwhatshappeningtothem,itispossiblethatwe witnessanissueofunwieldedwill?Isitpossiblethatthosepopulationsembracecertain thingsoutofbeliefthatthatswhatsgoodforthem?Wewouldbewitnessingawilloutof convictionofrighteousnessthatpeopleembraceacertainpath,anditisbynotknowingwhat aretheirinterests,values,identities&history,thattheydivertfromtheirnaturalpath. Theenvelopeforallofthis?thenumbingofthenationsintelligenceSchotwell: knowledgeundercontrol;dowestillrememberwhatweknow,andcanwewieldit? BiologicalMetaphor: o Weretalkingaboutastateofpermeability. o Westsperspectivewereantibodies. o Eastsperspectiveyoureviruses. o CommonalitybothcellEastandcellWestaretryingtocolonisethirdpartycells. o Thestateisthecellularmembrane.Bothcells,aftergrowingimmunetoeachother, behavelikevirusestowardsothercells,inordertoprotecttheirinternalsecurity. LastParttheneedtocolonise:isthereanyonenotplayingrealpolitik?Theannexationto onesowncommercialnetworkcomesoutasnecessity.Thenonannexationtoonesnetwork isalossinfavouroftheothernetwork(always?)aZeroSumgame. Ensuingissues: AppliedPS:establishingagovernancesystemdifferentthantheidentityofthe populationorofthegeopoliticalspaceinhabited?Previousexamples:Sovietregimes. Inrelationtopathdependency,willthecolonisationbygovernmentbreakthecycle,or willpathdependencyemergeastheicebergoftheprocess? Theadoptionofruleofthumbmodelsandprinciplesofgovernance(WorldBank models) Thecolonisationofhistory(DragosMateescu)2theremodellingofonespastnotby rewritingit(thewinnerisalwaysright),butratherbyconferringalensthrough whichpeoplecanreviewreinterprettheirownpast,andcreateanewmemoryof meaning.
2DragosMateescuwasreferringtoadifferentphenomenon,tothecolonizationoftimeandspace,theslow

processofonecivilizationusucaptioninganothercivilisationstimeandspace.Itishoweverappropriatetouse theideaofcolonisationofhistory,asasimilareffectcanbeattainedbyconferringadifferentmeaningtoones ownhistory.

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o Weareconstantlywarnedofthecontrarytendencies;ofthetheoretical revolutionary,andtheficklewhimsofthemob.Buttheholdofthetheoristonhis audiencesisfrequentlyduelesstohistheoriesthantohiscommandoffactsand hisabilitytopresentthemsothattheyreachhomeintheconsciousnessofthose whofacethemsocloselydaybyday.(Schotwell)

Thecoreoftheabductionphenomenonisbasedonworkingtheknowledgeaboutselfof thecolonisedpeople.Thedegreeofaccuracyisonlyashighasthedegreeofknowledgeabout thatsocietyopensourcesociety,andtheabilitytopenetratethesystemopennessofthe society. TheriskatdeploymentDewey,socialintelligence:thecapabilityofthesystemtoidentify andcontrolinternalandexternalvariations. Gaininganintuitiononthesystem. IsBoydsOODALoopsufficienttogaininsightsintoculturallyradicallydifferent societies,suchasthoseoftheAsianPacificCoast,orMuslimsocieties? IfBoydsmodelisappropriate,doesitresideintheartoftheanalysingagentto understandandfactorinalltheculturalpsychosocialdifferencesofthesesocieties? Modelsbuildingonthe1987OODALoop:theDynamicOODALoop(Cybernetics)3, whichfactorsinperceptionalternativesandresponsealternatives.(BasedonWohls SHORModel:StimulusHypothesisOptionResponse,1981).AsBrehmerexplainsit, thisprocedureallowstheusertogetintheadversarysOODALoopleadingtoaricher understandingandcapabilityofalteringtheadversarysprocesses. Giventhestructureoftheworkhighlyanticipativeanddealingwithsocialtransformation weneedtotakeintoconsiderationthefollowing: thefactthattheirreversibilityofthesituationimposestheadaptationcriteria,which areconditionedbyblindspotsintheusedknowledge(GeorgescuRoegen) cantheoutcomesoftheinterventionbelabtested,haveafieldrunpriorto deploymentinordertohaveanempiricalsetofresults,toatleastapproximate effects?(<<<<whataretheappropriatesociologicalandmasspsychologytoolsto studysuchphenomena?theremustbesomethingbetterthanprobabilistics)

3Brehmer,AmalgamatingBoydsOODALoopandtheCyberneticApproach

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 AppliedResearchCaseStudiesproposed Note:thefollowingsetof5proposedstudieswaschosenastocorrespondto3criteria: donotdemandmilitary/intelligenceservicesknowledge canberesearchedwithinalmostanymajoruniversityintheworld haveidentityascommonality,andeachisdistinctsomehow,withapplicationsin differentfields canberesearchedasAR,butcaneasilybyturnedintoPR,orCR,dependingonthe mobilisedresourcesandtheenduser 1.SecuringanOpenSociety:Canada'sNationalSecurityPolicy4.

astrategicframeworkandactionplandesignedtoensurethatCanadaispreparedforand can respond to current and future threats. The focus is on events and circumstances that generally require a national response as they are beyond the capacity of individuals, communitiesorprovincestoaddressalone. The firstever policy of its kind in Canada, Securing an Open Society adopts an integratedapproachtosecurityissuesacrossgovernment.Itemploysamodelthatcanadapt to changing circumstances over time. It has been crafted to balance the needs for national security with the protection of core Canadian values of openness, diversity and respect for civilliberties.

Aparticularlyinterestingfeatureoftheframeworkisthecreationandintegration withthestatessecuritystructure(nationallevel)ofanadvisoryCrossCultural RoundtableonSecuritygroup. 2.The(Re)ModellingoftheModernMuslimIdentity Twoperiods:postWWIIandpost9/11,fromtheprismofinternal transformativeprocesses.FocusedontheinterplaybetweenElites(Leaders,Clerics), Population(s),Interfactionalstrife,andtheOthersBrits,(ex)Soviets,andAmericans. WhataretheMuslimNomosimplicit/tacitrequirements?Aworldofthe Muslims,fortheMuslims,bytheMuslims?Areweenteringanageoftotalrejectionof anythingWestern,orwhataretheavailablevariablegeometriespossible? 3.RomaniacanwedistillatethecontemporaryRomaniannomos? Heterogeneousandnoncoagulated,withlittlecommonpast,andthatone dividedbetweenMonarchyandCommunism.Whatarethelegacyandthepresent shapingthecontemporaryidentityoftheRomanians? 4.WhatwouldDisneydo?IstheresuchathingasaDisneyapproach? ThequestionimpliestheauthorsbeliefthatthereisasystemthatDisneyCo. usesinordertocraftitsproductandpromotion.Disneyisuniversallylikedand accepted,withaparticulareaseofmarketpenetrationonthemarketsoftheAsiaPacific region,whichisarareoccurrenceforWesternproducts.

4SecuringanOpenSociety:CanadasNationalSecurityPolicy

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 WhatistheapproachDisneyusestoobserve,distillate,synthesise,andsequence cultureandidentityinsuchahighlyperformingway?DisneylikedeploymentinEast Asianstateswouldbeaterrificvehicleforpublicdiplomacy/conditioning,depending ontheperspective. 5.EasternEuropeanUnionperseveranceinanotherspath ThisstudyraisesthequestionofinadvertenteffectsofpoliciesfundedbytheEU, suchasMedia&Culture,thesupportforcivilsociety,democratisationandstabilisation processes.Allofthesehaveinmindasetofpolicyactionsthatwould,intheend,deliver amodern,democraticsociety.However,theycometobeimplementedonabackground ofincompletetransitionsandinsocietiesthatconsistentlyafterthecollapseof communistregimeshaveimportedhabitsandformsofWesternsocieties,butwhich havenotbeentranslatedforthelocalcharacter. Thedoubleriskpresentinsuchsituationsisfirstandforemostthenegative effectsofcreatingamismatchingsuprastructure,whichwillenterintoresonancewith theyoungdemocraticsocieties,andoflessconsequence,andyetimportant,themisuse offundscurrentlybeingallocatedtothoseprogrammes. Timeline&Resources MalmoUniversitytheFacultyofCultureandSocietyDepartmentofGlobalPolitical Studies.(TheresearchcentreproducedtwoPhDthesesofinterest: ConceptualisationsofcitizenshipinSwedenandtheUnitedKingdom andArtifactsandsupraphysicalworlds:Aconceptualanalysisof religionhttp://dspace.mah.se/handle/2043/6095) ColumbiaUniversitySIPA:SchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairsanentirepublic figuresandspecialistsseriesofconferencesandpublishedconference notesonthemechanismsoftotalitarianregimes.

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Bibliography: 1. Boyd,JohnR.,TheEssenceofWinningandLosing,1996 2. Brehmer,Berndt,TheDynamicOODALoop:AmalgamatingBoydsOODALoopandthe CyberneticApproachtoCommandandControl,SwedishNationalDefenceCollege. http://www.dodccrp.org/events/10th_ICCRTS/CD/papers/365.pdf 3. Chomsky,NoamandEdwardS.Herman,ManufacturingConsent:ThePoliticalEconomy oftheMassMedia,PantheonBooks,1988. 4. Lippmann,Walter,PublicOpinion,1922. 5. Mateescu,Dragos,Thecolonisationofhistory,AISS2011Conference,Bucharest. 6. Schotwell,IntelligenceandPolitics,1921. 7. SecuringanOpenSociety:CanadasNationalSecurityPolicy,theCanadianGovernment, 2011.http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/pol/ns/secpol04eng.aspx 8. Strickland,D.A.,andR.E.Johnston,IssueElasticityinPoliticalSystems,inJournalof PoliticalEconomy,1970.(peopleareonlyminimallyawareofconnectionsbetween issues,theonlycoherentsetofissuesfoundthroughoutthegeneralpublicrelatesto whatonemightcallpopulismorlatentfascismAxelrod1967)

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