Solar Output and Global Warming Trends

By: Doctor Paul Karl Hoiland

Abstract: Looking at the sunspot number time series and the time
period of reported global warming normally attributed to Industrial
causes causes one to ask the question if the general increase in solar
activity noted since the 1930’s with high peaks in the period between
1980 to 1990 might not itself be a major cause of the global warming.

Much has been made of the manmade influences on global warming. But
one aspect that has not made it into the news in any major way is the
influence of increases in solar activity upon earth surface temperature
rises. Changes in the energy from the Sun potentially could influence
global change directly by modifying the Earth's surface temperature and
by creating and destroying atmosphere ozone at variable rates. Solar
variability may also influence global change indirectly, by modifying
the middle atmosphere, which is connected chemically, dynamically, and
radiatively with the
troposphere/biosphere. In the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere,
and in the geospace environment, solar variations cause dramatic
changes that are critical for understanding the processes within those
regions, although the extent to which these changes couple to lower
atmospheric layers is uncertain at this time.

Once it is understood that the Variable Sun Background Changes in the energy from
the Sun potentially could influence global change directly by modifying the Earth's
surface temperature it becomes important then to determine if some of the global
warming could be coming from changes in the Sun’s energy output. A proper
starting are in such a study would be the sunspot activity over the past couple of
decades.

The fundamental physical processes that generate the variations

observed in solar energy production are associated with the 22-year
magnetic cycle of the Sun. The sunspot number time series remains the
principal historical indicator of this cycle. The figure below (left)
shows the AA Yearly Index, a way of quantifying the magnetic
disturbances, over the last 120 years superimposed to the sunspot
number.
Observations over time periods of decades reveal an intriguing cyclic pattern of gradual
increase and decrease in the average number of sunspots visible on the solar disk. This
was first noted in 1843 by H. Schwabe, an amateur solar astronomer, and provided the
first hint of the existence of the sunspot cycle, whose period Schwabe estimated to be
about 10 years. Further work revealed that the length of successive sunspot cycles is not
strictly constant but varies from 9 to 11.5 years, with an average cycle period of about
10.8 years. The plot shown above (right) is a historical reconstruction of yearly-averaged
sunspot group counts (yellow curve), extending all the way back to the first telescopic
sunspot observations in the early seventeenth century. The purple curve is the Zürich
normalized sunspot number. Looking at this graph we find that we had a maximum
peak around 1980, a slight drop down after that point, and a rise again in output from the
mid 80’s to the 90’s. This is the same general period of time over which global warming
has been a subject of study. In fact, since the 1930’s there has been a general rise noted
in the sunspot numbers which also equals the same general period of Industral
development normally blamed as the cause of global warming. Looking a bit closer at
this period we find the following:

The daily (yellow), monthly (blue) end monthly smoothed (red) sunspot numbers are
plotted for the last cycle, together with the 12 months ahead predictions (red dots) and the
uncertainty interval (green).

Again there was a very high peak in the period from 1986 to 1992, with a drop off back
down from 92 on. The question that should be asked is what is the actual relationship
these general increases in solar output as based upon the primary indicator have upon the
overall global warming the earth has experienced?