Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 11, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 11, 2013

Highlights
US Non-Farm Employment Change rose to 2,36,000 in February. UKs Consumer Inflation Expectations rose by 3.6 percent in Q1 2013. US Unemployment Rate declined to 7.7 percent in the last month. Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 3.2 percent in Feb. US Non-Farm Employment Change rose by 1,17,000 to 2,36,000 in February as against a rise of 1,19,000 in January. Unemployment Rate declined to 7.7 percent in February from earlier rise of 7.9 percent a month ago. Average Hourly Earnings was at 0.2 percent in last month as compared to rise of 0.1 percent in January. Wholesale Inventories increased by 1.2 percent in January with respect to rise of 0.1 percent in earlier month. Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 3.2 percent in February as against a rise of 2 percent in January. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged at -1.6 percent in the last month. Fixed Asset Investment rose by 21.2 percent in January from earlier rise of 20.6 percent a month ago. Industrial Production increased at slow pace of 9.9 percent in January with respect to previous rise of 10.3 percent in December.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5945.7 19683.2 14397.07 1551.2 16204.0 2006.0 58497.8 12283.6 91.95 1576.60 2890.90 7749.00 102.09 Prev. day 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.4 1.6 0.1 0.2 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

as on March 8, 2013 WoW 4.0 4.0 2.2 2.2 3.4 2.8 -0.1 1.4 0.3 1.6 0.4 0.5 MoM 0.7 1.0 2.9 2.2 -2.6 3.8 0.0 8.6 -3.9 -4.3 -6.4 -1.2 0.1 YoY 11.5 7.6 11.5 13.6 -2.8 2.8 -12.3 25.7 -13.7 -7.2 -15.4 -7.0 -1.2

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of US Gross Domestic (GDP) which grew at slower pace of 0.1 percent than the forecast data leading to concerns over the the global economic growth. However, sharp upside was not witnessed on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone also capped sharp gains in the currency. The currency touched a weekly high of 82.95 and closed at 82.73 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.73 54.34 54.54 71.56 Prev. day 0.7 0.2 -0.48 30.57

as on March 8, 2013 WoW 0.5 1.0 -1.28 29.53 MoM 3.0 -1.4 1.48 33.16 YoY 4.1 -7.9 7.96 41.65

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 1 percent in the last week. The currency appreciated on the back of selling of dollars from exporters and some custodian banks. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with inflow of dollars from Power Grid's bond issue which raised up to 20 billion rupees ($364.66 million) through sale of bonds also supported an upside in the currency. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched a weekly high of 54.265 and closed at 54.34 against dollar on Friday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,410.90 crores ($254.37 million) as on 8th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.47,909.0 crores ($8,889.0 million) till 8th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks will also support an upside in the currency.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for March 11, 2013 Support 54.40/54.25 Resistance 54.70/54.90

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 11, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.1 percent on weekly basis on the back of decline in Europes Sentix investor confidence, decline in Spanish services PMI coupled with strength in DX. Further, Revised Euro GDP data showed that Euro zone growth declines by 0.6 percent, negative German factory orders and Flat German industrial production also added downside pressure. However, optimistic global market sentiments, decline in borrowing cost for Spain and ECB decision to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged to 0.75 percent cushioned the sharp depreciation in the currency. Additionally, ECB president Draghi comment that region economy will become stable also prevented sharp depreciation. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 12.8 billion Euros in January as against a previous deficit of 87.2 billion Euros a month ago. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2955 and closed at 1.3004 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of optimistic global market sentiment. However, French industrial production is expected to come unchanged which may cap sharp appreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook valid for March 11, 2013
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 71.40/71.20 71.70/71.90 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3004 70.54 71.6 71.6 Prev. day -0.8 1.1 0.35 0.34

as on March 8, 2013 WoW -0.1 1.5 -0.50 -0.52 MoM -2.7 1.5 -0.68 -0.68 7.87 7.85 YoY -2.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.4915 81.099 54.54 Prev. day -0.65 -1.08 -33.68

as on March 8, 2013

WoW -0.8 -1.80 -34.28

MoM -5.6 -4.22 -35.59

YoY -5.7 2.52 -31.37

GBP/INR
On the Weekly basis, Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.8 percent on the back of decline in construction PMI coupled with strength in DX. Additionally, rise in consumer Inflation expectation added further downside pressure. However, decision by Bank of England (BOE) to keep its Official Bank Rate and asset purchase facility unchanged coupled with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned the sharp depreciation in currency. Additionally, positive services PMI from UK also prevented sharp downside in currency. UKs Consumer Inflation Expectations rose by 3.6 percent in Q1 of 2013 from earlier rise of 3.5 percent in Q4 of 2012. The Sterling Pound touched a low of 1.4884 and closed at 1.4915 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiment coupled with weakness in DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for March 11, 2013 Support 81.80/81.62 Resistance 82.20/82.40

82.04

-0.21

-1.11

-3.10

3.29

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 11, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 2.6 percent yesterday in the last week as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of favorable economic data from the country. Japans Economy Watchers Sentiment rose by 3.7 points to 53.2-mark in February as against a rise of 49.5-level in January. Core Machinery Orders declined by 13.1 percent in January as against a rise of 2.8 percent a month ago. M2 Money Stock increased by 2.9 percent in February from earlier rise of 2.7 percent in January. The Yen touched a low of 96.54 in the last week and closed at 96.02 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, decline in machinery orders data from the country will also add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for March 11, 2013 Support 56.85/56.70 Resistance 57.35/57.70
Source: Telequote

as on March 8, 2013 Last 96.02 0.5659 57.06 57.07 Prev day 1.3 -1.55 -2.03 -1.98 WoW 2.6 -3.55 -4.02 -4.04 MoM 3.6 -99.03 -1.92 -1.92 YoY 17.7 -8.47 -8.84 -8.80

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on March 11, 2013

Indicator Core Machinery Orders m/m French Industrial Production m/m Country Japan Europe Time (IST) 5:20am 1:15pm Actual -13.1% Forecast -1.6% -0.1% Previous 2.8% -0.1% Impact Medium Medium

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