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4-Mar-09 STOOOOPP !
As the S&P hits fresh lows, having fallen 11 of the past 12 days amid rising complaints that the US is turning “socialist”, daily
detonations from the financial sector (AIG, Citibank, HSBC, etc), and an impending fear of an Eastern European blow up, it is increasingly
difficult to feel optimistic. But while most asset prices are charred and smoking, there might be some light at the end of the tunnel, which
soon hopefully should not be a coming train anymore ...
The 7.7% m/m fall in the US pending homes sales index in January looks spectacular but only brings the index back into line with
what the actual existing home sales figures are already telling us. At its current level the pending sales index suggests that existing home
sales are likely to remain at January's level of 4,490k. In sum, housing activity remains at very low levels, but there is nothing here to
suggest conditions are any worse than we already knew.
Elsewhere, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke had little to add in today's testimony to what he has already said in recent public
appearances. Speaking to the Senate Budget Committee, he acknowledged the severity of the current recession and cautioned that any
recovery was dependent on restoring a degree of financial stability. Otherwise, we also learnt that the Fed/Treasury facility to kick-start
the asset-backed securities market will begin later this month. The Fed intends to lend up to $200bn each month against recently issued
ABS under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). In total, the Fed is looking to lend up to $1000bn which is a fairly
substantial sum given that the ABS market was only worth $4500bn in total. If it works as well as the commercial paper lending facility, the
TALF could be an important tool in improving the availability of all forms of non-mortgage credit to households.
The Obama stimulus plan is back-loaded and will start to hit the economy before 2H09, the recent series of economic data continue
to confirm that the trough in terms of economic activity may well have been marked in 4Q08, and things should get better. As such, the
market will play a recovery within the next two weeks (hopefully). On Monday, the Dow closed at 6,763, a level not seen since 1997. If
nothing else, the breach of 12-year lows is unusual. Other than Monday's retesting of 1997 lows, such a crossing has occurred only twice
before, on Dec. 6, 1974, and April 8, 1932. And on both cases, we were approaching the end of the bear market a few weeks after the
breech.
Soon over, harmful but soon over. We are playing in unknown territories, on both US housing industries and equity prices, which the
huge measures taken by governments should be reversing anytime, while unfortunately the redemption from pension funds and hedge
funds is making the levels even more "attractive"
WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close

Last 41,3 1,2497 98,48 2,94 3,05 1,84 0,36 -1,52 -0,09 0,21 -1,55 -1,17 -3,54 1,33 -0,64 -0,14 -0,55 US
Perf 1d % 2,69 -0,51 -0,32 5,87 bp 1,8 bp 0,69 0,45 -2,09 -0,59 -0,00 -1,31 -1,22 -2,86 0,22 -0,69 -0,30 -0,39 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
ADP Employment Change (13h15 gmt) / should be bad, and expected as such, but employment report being a lagging indicator, focus
will remain financial system stability and timing of the recovery as well as the impact of Obama's stimulus on the real economy
ISM Services (15h gmt) expected / The employment component will be of particular interest ahead of Friday’s payroll report / should be
bad and played as such / any better data will be welcome so much the consensus as well as the newsflow is negative / minor lately,
focus banks etc...
Weekly Crude Inventories (15h35 gmt) / minor
Fed releases Beige Book (19h gmt) / officials speeches lately will minor the importance of the outing
Dallas Fed President (13h30 gmt) Fisher speaks at TCU
Atlanta Fed President (19h gmt) Lockhart speaks on U.S. economic outlook
POSITIVE IMPACTS
FRANCE TELECOM : FY sales €53.49bn (53.44bn exp) / Ebitda €19.40bn (19.18bn exp) / Dividend €1.40 (€1.30 for 2007) / Ratio net
debt to EBITDA at 1.85 / Will maintain organic cash flow distribution rate greater than or equal to 45% in 2009
BOUYGUES : FY rev. €32.71Bn (32.58 e) / Operating €2.23Bn (2.22 e) / Div. €1.60 (1.50 e) / Sees 2009 sales at €31.7Bn (32.5 est)
VINCI : FY operating €3.28bn, in line / Dividend €1.62 (1.60 exp) / Sees slight decrease in contracting ops rev in 09
ADIDAS : Q4 Sales €2.57bn (2.47e) / Operating €107m (102 exp) / Dividend €0.50 (0.53e) / Sees decline in gross margin in 2009
TELECOM ITALIA : S&P affirms BBB/A-2 / Outlook stable
SOCIETE GENERALE's Chief Executive Officer said the year had started rather well.
SACYR : The banks that lent Sacyr €5 bn to buy 20% of Repsol are considering relaxing the conditions on their loan (Expansion)
RENAULT is pushing ahead with its electric vehicle project and is sticking to a target to sell 20k-40k electric cars in 2011
OERLIKON : FY Ebit SFR281m (169m exp) / Net loss SFR422m due to impairment charges & restructuring costs (-540m exp)
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
HOLCIM : FY rev. SFR25.16Bn (25.64bn exp) / EBITDA SFR5.33Bn (5.54bn exp) / No outlook for 09 / Proposes dividend in form of
suscription right / Venezuela failed to pay $550m for nationalized plant / Holcim considers to bring Venezuela to court
CREDIT AGRICOLE : Q4 Net Bking Inc. €4.6bn (€4.25 exp) / Operating expenses €3.146, in line / Operating Loss €162m (€ -20m exp)
Tier1 ratio 9.1% / Plans to recommend a div. payment of €0.45 (€0.48 exp) in new shares at its AGM on May 19 / Conf call 0800 UKT
SWISSCOM : FY sales SFR12.2bn (12.16bn exp) / Ebitda SFR 4.79bn, in line / Dividend SFR19 (+5.6%) / But sees 2009 revenue to
fall to SFR11-11.3bn (12.2bn exp) / Sees Ebitda of between SFR4.4-4.5bn (4.7bn exp)
ADECCO : Q4 revenue €4.63bn (4.82bn exp) / Ebita margin 3.6% (4.5% exp) / Dividend of CHF1.50 / Sees no signs of improvement
SUEZ ENV. : FY08 operating €1.06bn (€1.08bn exp) / Cut 2009 investments by 25% / Sees low digit growth in 2009 sales & EBITDA
ITV : FY revenue £2.03bn (2.01bn exp) / PTP adj. £167m (144m exp) / Non cash impairment charge £2.7bn / Suspends final div
IRISH LIFE & PERMANENT : FY08 Operating €341m (€385m e) / Core Tier1 ratio 10.1% / Says strong cap position / Conf call 900 UKT
ENSKILDA said it had set a subscription price of 10 crowns per share in its rights issue / The bank announced last month it would raise
DKK15bn in a guaranteed rights issue aimed at boosting its balance sheet / 5 existing shares gives right to sign up for 11 new shares
ALCATEL had its credit rating cut to B+ from BB- by S&P, which cited the possibility of revenue falling this year as demand sags
SANOFI : People who suffer a heart attack nearly double the risk of having another if they take the Plavix together with Prilosec
FORTIS can’t claim a €2bn settlement linked to 8.75% convertible notes sold in 2007 through its former Dutch bking unit (Dutch Fin. Min.)
RESULTS DIVIDENDS EVENTS
Credit Agricole/ Adecco / Adidas / France Tel / Suez British Land rights Issue 2 per 3 / Diageo (GBp
Today Environnement / Scor / Swisscom / Holcim / Old Mutual / 15.4444) / Thomas Cook (GBp 7,222222) / Bank of
BAE Systems America ($0.01) / Pepsi ($0.425)
Carrefour / Casino / Essilor / GDF Suez / Aviva / Salzitter /
Thursday Nike ($0.25) / British Airways investor / France Tel investor day
Arkema / Essilor / Energias de Portugal
Fugro / Belgacom / Italcementi / Veolia Environnement sales
Friday
/ WPP / Fugro
Fortis / Continental / Ciment Français / Acerinox / Texas
Monday RFedEx ($0.11) / HP ($0.08)
Instruments Mid Quarter
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

4-Mar-09 STOOOOPP !
Roche AGM / Walt Disney / Caterpillar analyst
Tuesday Bulgari / EADS / E.On / Finmeccanica / SBM Offshore meeting / Hospitality & Gaming conf at Deutsche
Bank / Transportation conf at JP Morgan
TRADING IDEAS
BUY Eurostoxx cash to play double bottom possibility (1847.62)
BUY the dollar to play US will manage a recovery sooner than Europe
BUY TOTAL / PHILIPS / LVMH / AIR FRANCE / BASF / VEOLIA / WPP (results on Friday) on double bottom possibility

BUY DANONE / SELL NESTLE // BUY ASTRA / SELL GLAXO // BUY TOTAL / SELL ENI // BUY SIEMENS / SELL ALSTOM
BROKER METEOROLOGY
ZURICH FINANCIAL ...................RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL ........................................................ BY JPMORGAN
AEGON ........................................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL .................................................................................... BY UBS
DANSKE BANK ..........................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL .................................................................................... BY UBS
SCHNEIDER ................................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL ...................................................................................... BY UBS
STANDARD CHARTERED .........RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL ...................................................................................... BY UBS
METRO ........................................RAISED TO BUY .......................................................................................... BY BANK OF AMERICA
BEIERSDORF ..............................RAISED TO HOLD FROM SELL ........................................................................................... BY RBS
HERMES ......................................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERPEFORM................................................BY CREDIT SUISSE

RENEWABLE ENERGY...............CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT ........................................................................... BY MORGAN STANLEY

SOLARWORLD............................CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT ............................................................................. BY MORGAN STANLEY
TELIASONERA ............................CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL ............................................................ BY JPMORGAN

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR MORNING ECO

 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

4-Mar-09 STOOOOPP !
CHART OF THE DAY
DJ Stoxx 600 (SXXP Index)
since 1990
450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Source : Bloomberg
The European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell to the lowest level since 1996 on concern earnings are deteriorating and
banks will need more capital. The Index slipped again 1,51 % yesterday after sliding as much as 5 % on Monday (its
biggest drop of the year), a level not seen since November 1996 (161,34). The DJ Stoxx 600 has lost 18,66 % in
2009.…

ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
0.01 GMT United Kingdom Nationwide consumer confidence February 38 40
1.00 GMT China PMI manufacturing February 45,3
08.45 GMT Italy PMI services February 39,6 41,1
08.50 GMT France PMI services (final) February 40,1 40,1
08.55 GMT Germany PMI services (final) February 41,6 41,6
09.00 GMT Euro area PMI services(final) February 38,9 38,9
09.00 GMT Euro area PMI composite ( final) February 36,2 36,2
09.30 GMT United Kingdom PMI services February 41,9 42,5
09.30 GMT United Kingdom Official reserves changes February - $ 166 billion
12.00 GMT United-States MBA mortgage applications 27th February - 15,1%
12.30 GMT United-States ADP challenger job cuts February 222,4% YoY
13.15 GMT United-States ADP employment change February - 630 000 - 522 000
15.00 GMT United-States ISM non manuf - composite February 42 41,0 42,9
19.00 GMT United-States Fed' Beige book

Inde x e s P rice % 5 D a ys Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 6726,0 - 8,45% - 23,36% EUR/USD 1,2498 -1,78% -10,56%
S&P 500 696,3 - 9,89% - 22,91% EUR/JPY 123,17 0,71% -2,97%
Nas daq 1321,0 - 8,36% - 16,23% USD/JPY 98,57 -1,10% 7,95%
CA C 40 2554,6 - 5,67% - 20,62% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DA X 3690,7 - 5,26% - 23,27% Brent $/b 43,5 -0,50% 4,09%
Eur os tox x 50 1864,7 - 5,70% - 23,81% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 161,3 - 6,53% - 18,66% Gold $/oz 912,3 -4,33% 3,46%
FTSE 100 3512,1 - 7,86% - 20,80% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7291,0 - 0,53% - 17,71% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,11
Shanghai Comp 2187,5 - 5,87% 20,14% Overnight 0,20 1,10 0,11
Sens ex ( India) 8416,9 - 4,48% - 12,75% 3 Months 0,25 0,82 0,26
MICEX ( Rus s ia) 654,1 3,95% 5,59% 10 Y ears** 2,94 3,05 1,30
Bov es pa ( Bras il) 36467,6 - 5,80% - 2,88% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Ref i
** Euro: German Bund rate So urc e : B lo o m berg
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

4-Mar-09 STOOOOPP !
Economic data preview

Watch in the United-States the release of the ISM non manufacturing composite for February due at 15.00 GMT and expected to
remains stable but still under the level of 50 signalling a contraction of the service sector./JB

ate

ECONOMY

UNITED-STATES : PENDING HOME SALES SHARPLY DECLINED IN JANUARY

The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell to -7.7% in January from + 4.8% in December. The
majority of the pending home sales become existing home sales one or two months later and therefore this index can be used to predict
actual home sales activity which is on a down trend. Indeed the lack of credit add to the rise of unemployment and the record foreclosures
are pushing property values even lower as the demand is falling showing as well that consumers became extremely cautious when about
purchasing homes.

EURO ZONE : WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX DROPPED THE MOST SINCE 1987 IN JANUARY
German’s wholesale prices dropped of 5.9% from a year ago (prior-4.2%), this is the sharpest decline since 1987. From a month ago
wholesales prices fell of 0.4% (prior -3.2%). This drop is mainly led by the drop of energy prices and especially oil prices which have
retreated 72% from the July 2008 peak at $147 a barrel. Prices are indeed on a lasting down trend led as well by the recession in
Germany(the deepest since world war two) and by the global economic downturn making the global offer much higher than the global
demand. This gap between the supply and the demand will shortly turn into a deflation situation increasing the unemployment and
generating more deflation./JB
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4-Mar-09 STOOOOPP !
VIXindex: impliedvolatility onthe S&P 500 $Libor -3-Month(InterbankRate)
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
05/03/2007 05/09/2007 05/03/2008 05/09/2008 05/03/2009 05/03/2007 05/09/2007 05/03/2008 05/09/2008 05/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

UnitedStates : 10-year Treasury yield 10-year Treasury spreadUSA-Eurozone

5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
05/03/2007 05/09/2007 05/03/2008 05/09/2008 05/03/2009 05/03/2007 05/09/2007 05/03/2008 05/09/2008 05/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex: Eurovs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
05/03/2007 05/09/2007 05/03/2008 05/09/2008 05/03/2009 05/03/2007 05/09/2007 05/03/2008 05/09/2008 05/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg