Christmas Bird Counts in Berrien County, Michigan:

A Visual Depiction of Trends (1962-2012)

John L. Trapp
4776 Erie Drive
Buchanan, MI 49107
17 December 2012
In the following pages, I present graphs showing trends in number of individuals of 88 species
and 2 species groups that were detected in at least 25 of the 50 years, 1962-2012.
The following conventions are used in each graph:
Parenthetical numbers following species names denote number of years detected.
Numbers along the bottom of the horizontal axis denote years. To determine year, add
1962 to each number (examples: 10 + 1962 = 1972, 50 + 1962 = 2012).
Numbers to the left of the vertical axis denote number of birds.
Diamonds depict the actual number of birds counted, and represent the sum of all
counts conducted each year regardless of the number of counts conducted.
Solid lines depict calculated linear trends, or regressions.
Regression formulas yield expected number of birds in a given year, where y = number
of birds and x = year (in this instance, a number varying from 0 to 50).
R2, a number that can vary from 0.000 to 1.000, indicates how well a regression line fits
the data. In this instance, an R2 of 0.3000 or greater is considered to indicate statistical
significance.
Species determined to have been counted in substantially greater or lesser numbers in
recent years compared to earlier years are denoted with Increase of Decline following
the species name.
Dotted lines depict 3-year moving averages.

Canada Goose (n=43) - Increase

8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000

y = 105.07x - 1129.8
R = 0.6864

1000
0
-1000 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

-2000

Mute Swan (n=33) - Increase

120
100
80
60
40

y = 0.9589x - 13.032
R = 0.4784

20
0
0

10

20

30

40

-20

Wood Duck (n=42)

45
40

35
30

y = -0.0185x + 6.4114
R = 0.0013

25
20
15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Gadwall (n=38) - Increase

70
60
50
40
y = 0.3392x + 4.7314
R = 0.1

30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

American Black Duck (n=50)

140
120
100

y = -0.8552x + 65.547
R = 0.1698

80
60

40
20
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mallard (n=50) - Increase

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
y = 36.521x + 387.02
R = 0.5125

500
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canvasback (n=34)
60
50
40
30
y = 0.037x + 4.5559
R = 0.0022

20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40

50

60

50

60

Redhead (=33)
70
60
50

40
30
y = 0.386x - 4.3437
R = 0.2308

20
10
0
-10

10

20

30

Ring-necked Duck (n=25)

50
40
30

20

y = 0.1449x - 0.7543
R = 0.0768

10
0
0
-10

10

20

30

40

Greater Scaup (n=32)

350
300
250
200
150
y = 2.604x - 24.303
R = 0.1826

100
50
0
-50

10

20

30

40

50

60

40

50

60

40

50

60

Lesser Scaup (n=41)

300
250
200
150
100

y = 1.8942x - 18.722
R = 0.2802

50
0

10

20

30

-50

scaup sp. (n=33)

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000

y = 9.3423x - 87.208
R = 0.0624

500
0
-500

10

20

30

Bufflehead (n=50)
500
450

400
350
300
250

y = 3.3325x + 28.082
R = 0.2316

200
150
100
50
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Common Goldeneye (n=50)

3000
2500
2000

y = -19.311x + 1009.3
R = 0.2771

1500
1000
500
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Hooded Merganser (n=49) - Increase

80
70
60
50
40
30
20

y = 0.5766x + 4.2376
R = 0.2005

10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Common Merganser (n=49)

1400
1200
1000
800
y = -2.1464x + 153.27
R = 0.028

600
400
200
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40

50

60

40

50

60

Red-breasted Merganser (n=50)

2000
1500
1000

y = 13.036x - 181.77
R = 0.2771

500
0

10

20

30

-500

Ruddy Duck (n=27)

120
100

80
60

40

y = 0.4313x - 5.6171
R = 0.1505

20
0
0
-20

10

20

30

Ring-necked Pheasant (n=48) - Decline

900
800
700
600
500
400

y = -5.4009x + 233.2
R = 0.3014

300
200
100
0
-100 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ruffed Grouse (n=33) - Decline

30
25
20
15
10

y = -0.2497x + 11.709
R = 0.3124

5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

-5

Common Loon (n=32)

30
25
20

y = 0.1437x - 0.2637
R = 0.1638

15
10
5
0
0
-5

10

20

30

40

Pied-billed Grebe (n=44)

40
35
30

y = -0.0062x + 7.4792
R = 0.0001

25
20
15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40

50

60

50

60

Horned Grebe (n=36)

18
16
14
12

y = 0.098x + 0.4408
R = 0.1268

10
8
6
4
2
0
0

10

20

30

Great Blue Heron (n=36) - Increase

30
25

20
15
y = 0.3103x - 1.1739
R = 0.4152

10
5
0
0
-5

10

20

30

40

Northern Harrier (n=38)

35
30
25
20

y = 0.0806x + 1.9641
R = 0.0489

15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Sharp-shinned Hawk (n=45) - Increase

14
12
10
8
6

4
2

y = 0.1995x + 0.6335
R = 0.5436

0
0

10

20

30

40

Cooper's Hawk (n=50) - Increase

45
40

35
30
25
20
15
10

y = 0.481x + 1.4343
R = 0.604

5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Red-shouldered Hawk (n=36) - Increase

14
12
10
8
y = 0.1503x - 1.0727
R = 0.5332

6
4
2
0
0

-2

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Red-tailed Hawk (n=50) - Increase

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
y = 2.8762x - 3.3633
R = 0.7743

20
0
-20 0

10

20

30

40

Rough-legged Hawk (n=49)

60
50
y = 0.3124x + 4.8335
R = 0.168

40
30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

American Kestrel (n=50)

120
y = 0.8171x + 19.124
R = 0.2018

100
80
60
40
20
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40

50

60

American Coot (n=48)

2500
2000
y = 13.217x + 80.354
R = 0.1569

1500
1000
500
0
0

10

20

30

Killdeer (n=31)
18
16

14
12
y = -0.0671x + 4.6506
R = 0.0593

10
8
6
4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bonaparte's Gull (n=27)

160
140
120
100
80
y = 0.0277x + 8.4947
R = 0.0003

60
40
20
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

50

60

Ring-billed Gull (n=50) - Increase

10000
8000
6000
4000

y = 98.047x - 765.41
R = 0.4414

2000
0
0

10

20

30

40

-2000

Herring Gull (n=50) - Increase

8000
7000
6000

y = 61.717x - 80.914
R = 0.3022

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000

10

20

30

40

gull sp. (n=26) - Increase

2500
2000
1500
1000

y = 21.235x - 284.7
R = 0.3285

500

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

-500

Mourning Dove (n=50)

4000
y = 25.489x + 544.22
R = 0.2314

3500
3000
2500
2000

1500
1000
500
0
0

10

20

30

40

Eastern Screech-Owl (n=50)

250
200

150
y = 0.459x + 15.176
R = 0.0464

100
50
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Great Horned Owl (n=49)

60
50
y = 0.1306x + 11.731
R = 0.0288

40
30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Barred Owl (n=40) - Increase

14
12
10
y = 0.1552x - 0.1388
R = 0.4585

8
6

4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

Belted Kingfisher (n=50)

50
45
40
35
y = -0.1885x + 18.927
R = 0.1011

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Red-headed Woodpecker (n=49)

250
200
150
y = -0.5023x + 31.128
R = 0.0581

100
50
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Red-bellied Woodpecker (n=50) - Increase

350
300
250
200
150
100

y = 5.1898x - 8.4604
R = 0.8219

50
0
0

-50

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker (n=41)

16
14
12

y = 0.0121x + 2.7527
R = 0.0034

10
8
6

4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

Downy Woodpecker (n=50) - Increase

450
400
350
300
250
200
150

y = 4.216x + 123.75
R = 0.4472

100
50
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Hairy Woodpecker (n=50)

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20

y = 0.206x + 38.667
R = 0.0374

10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Northern Flicker (n=50) - Increase

200
180
160

y = 1.5145x + 30.481
R = 0.311

140

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0

10

20

30

40

Northern Shrike (n=35)

12
10

8
6

y = 0.0045x + 1.5861
R = 0.001

4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

50

60

Blue Jay (n=50) - Increase

1400
1200
1000
800

600
400
y = 11.53x + 327.98
R = 0.3442

200
0
0

10

20

30

40

American Crow (n=50) - Increase

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

y = 42.684x + 54.502
R = 0.4423

1500
1000
500
0
0

10

20

30

40

Horned Lark (n=50)

1600
1400
1200
1000

y = -1.9651x + 330.53
R = 0.0116

800
600
400
200
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

50

60

Black-capped Chickadee (n=50)

1600
1400
1200
1000
800

600
400
200

y = 11.128x + 293.19
R = 0.2855

0
0

10

20

30

40

Tufted Titmouse (n=50) - Increase

700

600
500
400
300
200
y = 7.5194x + 83.916
R = 0.5729

100
0
0

10

20

30

40

Red-breasted Nuthatch (n=46) - Increase

180
160
140
120
100
80

y = 1.3635x - 2.0482
R = 0.3233

60
40
20
0
-20 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

50

60

White-breasted Nuthatch (n=50) - Increase

600
500
400
300
200
y = 5.9811x + 100.2
R = 0.5457

100
0
0

10

20

30

40

Brown Creeper (n=50)

80
y = 0.0366x + 32.347
R = 0.0009

70
60
50
40
30

20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

Carolina Wren (n=42) - Increase

50
40
30

y = 0.6858x - 5.7469
R = 0.6348

20
10

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

50

60

-10

Winter Wren (n=47)

50
45
40

35
30
25

y = -0.1765x + 11.021
R = 0.0725

20
15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

Golden-crowned Kinglet (n=49)

90
80
y = 0.0362x + 18.378
R = 0.0011

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

Eastern Bluebird (n=45) - Increase

350
300
250

200
150
100
y = 5.3239x - 61.679
R = 0.7495

50
0
-50

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

50

60

-100

Hermit Thrush (n=30)

7
6
5
y = 0.0394x + 0.3747
R = 0.1287

3
2
1
0
0

10

20

30

40

American Robin (n=50)

3000
2500

2000
1500

1000

y = 8.5x - 48.331
R = 0.0807

500
0
0
-500

10

20

30

40

Northern Mockingbird (n=37)

45
40
35
30
25
20
15

y = -0.2415x + 11.399
R = 0.1656

10
5
0
-5 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

European Starling (n=50)

30000
25000
y = 10.44x + 7841
R = 0.0006

20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40

50

60

Cedar Waxwing (n=50)

1000
900
800
700

y = 6.5429x + 66.596
R = 0.2288

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0

10

20

30

Lapland Longspur (n=35)

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500

y = -4.3314x + 209.93
R = 0.0116

1000
500
0
-500 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Snow Bunting (n=50)

1600
1400
1200
1000
y = -0.8833x + 259
R = 0.002

800
600
400
200
0
0

10

20

30

40

Yellow-rumped Warbler (n=35)

70
60
50
y = -0.2438x + 17.498
R = 0.0678

40
30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Eastern Towhee (n=37)

9
8
7
6

y = -0.0483x + 2.8318
R = 0.1558

5
4
3
2
1
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

American Tree Sparrow (n=50)

4500
4000
3500
y = -9.9648x + 1536
R = 0.029

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Field Sparrow (n=39)

80
70
60
50
40

y = -0.441x + 24.126
R = 0.134

30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Fox Sparrow (n=30)

14
12
10
y = 0.0353x + 0.72
R = 0.0436

8
6
4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Song Sparrow (n=50)

450
400
350
300
250

y = -2.1363x + 168.66
R = 0.1632

200
150
100
50
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Swamp Sparrow (n=49)

70
60
50
40
y = -0.1745x + 12.57
R = 0.0604

30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

White-throated Sparrow (n=40)

40
35
30
y = 0.2481x - 0.1469
R = 0.214

25
20
15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

White-crowned Sparrow (n=48)

180
160
y = 0.8456x + 31.178
R = 0.093

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dark-eyed Junco (n=50)

10000
9000
8000
7000
y = 2.0925x + 2508.9
R = 0.0004

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Northern Cardinal (n=50) - Increase

1800
1600
1400

1200
1000
800
600
400

y = 14.922x + 385.88
R = 0.426

200
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Red-winged Blackbird (n=42)

250
200
150
100

y = -0.0325x + 27.788
R = 9E-05

50
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Eastern Meadowlark (n=25)

30
25
20
y = -0.1344x + 6.9461
R = 0.1011

15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

Common Grackle (n=42)

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
y = -0.3732x + 143.68
R = 0.0001

1000
500
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50

60

Brown-headed Cowbird (n=47)

1200
1000
800
600
y = 0.2983x + 70.753
R = 0.0007

400
200
0
0

10

20

30

40

Purple Finch (n=48)

200
180
160
140

120
100

y = -0.205x + 44.287
R = 0.0067

80
60
40
20
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

House Finch (n=31) - Increase

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000

y = 37.936x - 252.42
R = 0.4379

500
0
0

-500

10

20

30

40

50

60

Common Redpoll (n=37)

3000
2500
2000
y = -5.5499x + 336.84
R = 0.0339

1500
1000
500
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40

50

60

Pine Siskin (n=40)

450
400
350
300
250

y = 1.208x + 34.096
R = 0.0331

200
150
100

50
0
0

10

20

30

American Goldfinch (n=50) - Increase

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400

y = 16.983x + 230.45
R = 0.4176

200
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Evening Grosbeak (n=27)

300
250
200
150
y = -1.1415x + 50.047
R = 0.1115

100
50
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-50

House Sparrow (n=50)

9000
8000

7000

y = -29.341x + 4446.6
R = 0.078

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60