Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 14, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 14, 2013

Highlights
European Industrial Production declined by 0.4 percent in January. US Core Retail Sales rose by 1 percent in the last month. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent in February. Retail Sales increased by 1.1 percent in the month of February. Asian markets are trading on mixed note today on the back of positive economic data from US in yesterdays trade. While on the other hand, expectations that property prices will curb due to concerns among material producers and developers in China added downside pressure on the markets. US Core Retail Sales rose by 1 percent in February as against a rise of 0.2 percent in January. Retail Sales increased by 1.1 percent in the last month from earlier rise of 0.1 percent in January. Import Prices gained by 1.1 percent in February as compared to rise of 0.6 percent a month ago. Business Inventories rose by 1 percent in January with respect to increase of 0.3 percent a month ago. Federal Budget Balance was at deficit of $203.5 billion in February from a surplus of $2.9 billion in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5851.2 19362.6 14455.28 1554.5 15745.3 1999.7 58497.8 12239.7 92.52 1588.30 2892.20 7790.00 102.09 Prev. day -1.1 -1.0 0.0 0.1 -1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.6 0.0 0.7 0.0 -0.5 0.0

as on March 13, 2013 WoW 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 -0.1 2.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.2 MoM -1.4 -1.3 3.4 2.2 -4.5 1.2 1.0 7.6 -4.6 -3.4 -4.7 -0.7 0.1 YoY 7.1 5.9 9.7 11.4 -6.3 2.2 -14.3 23.6 -13.3 -6.5 -10.0 -8.9 -1.2

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with more than expected deficit in the Federal Budget Balance. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of favorable retail and core retail sales data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day high of 83.07 and closed at 82.90 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.90 54.36 54.49 54.49 Prev. day 0.4 -0.4 0.22 0.22

as on March 13, 2013 WoW 0.5 0.8 -0.92 -0.90 MoM 3.4 -1.0 0.95 0.98 YoY 4.3 -8.3 8.75 8.76

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of weak domestic market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from importers and oil refiners exerted downside pressure on currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable wholesale price index on Thursday. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 54.44 and closed at 54.36 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,565.60 crores th ($834.80 million) as on 13 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.51,063.70 crores ($9,469.40 million) till 13 March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of expectations of favorable wholesale price index data coupled with weakness in the DX. However, mixed global market sentiments coupled with dollar demand from importers will cap sharp gains or even reversal in the currency.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for March 14, 2013 Support 54.30/54.15 Resistance 54.65/54.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 14, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of negative industrial production data from Europe coupled with strength in DX. However, mixed global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in currency. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012 from previous decline of 0.2 percent in Q3 of 2012. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent in February as against a decline of 0.5 percent in January. European Industrial Production declined by 0.4 percent in January as against a rise of 0.9 percent a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2922 and closed at 1.296 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiment coupled with weakness in DX. Investors will keep an eye on EU Economic summit which will start from today. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.70/70.55 71.05/71.30 valid for March 14, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.296 70.50 70.8 70.8 Prev. day -0.6 -0.1 0.15 0.13

as on March 13, 2013 WoW 0.0 1.0 -1.18 -1.17 MoM -3.7 2.6 -2.59 -2.61 7.83 7.82 YoY -0.9

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.492 81.135 81.55 Prev. day 0.12 0.534 0.81

as on March 13, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.12 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of mixed global market sentiments. However, worries among the investors over the UKs economic conditions coupled with strength in DX capped the sharp gains in currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.4981 and closed at 1.492 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, worries among the investors over the UKs economic conditions may cap sharp appreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 14, 2013 Support 81.20/80.90 Resistance 81.80/82.10 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW -0.6 -1.11 -1.73

MoM -4.0 -2.94 -2.85

YoY -5.0 3.47 3.97

81.55

0.83

-1.73

-2.84

3.98

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 14, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally in yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 95.62 and closed at 96.06 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 14, 2013 Support 56.80/56.55 Resistance 57.15/57.30
Source: Telequote

as on March 13, 2013 Last 96.09 0.5661 57.03 57.02 Prev day 0.0 0.19 0.44 0.44 WoW 2.2 -2.83 -3.12 -3.14 MoM 2.9 -1.91 -1.16 -1.19 YoY 16.0 -5.93 -5.93 -5.94

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on March 14, 2013

Indicator ECB Monthly Bulletin EU Economic Summit PPI m/m Unemployment Claims Core PPI m/m Current Account FOMC Member Raskin Speaks Country Europe Europe US US US US US Time (IST) 2:30pm Day 1 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm Actual Forecast 0.7% 352K 0.2% -111B Previous 0.2% 340K 0.2% -108B Impact Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium

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