Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 18, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 18, 2013

Highlights
US Core Consumer Price Index declined to 0.2 percent in last month. European CPI remained unchanged at 1.8 percent in February. US Industrial Production increased to 0.7 percent in February UKs CB Leading Index rose by 0.4 percent in the month of January. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 71.8-level in March. Asian Markets are trading on negative note on the concern over Cyprus bailout as euro zone minister decided to levy special tax on bank deposits in Cyprus. US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 0.2 percent in February as against a rise of 0.3 percent in January. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 0.7 percent in the last month. Empire State Manufacturing Index declined by 0.8 points to 9.2-mark in March from previous 10-level in February. Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases was at $25.7 billion in January as compared to $64.2 billion a month ago. Capacity Utilization Rate increased by 79.6 percent in February with respect to earlier rise of 79.2 percent in January. Industrial Production was at 0.7 percent in the month of February. Prelim University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment declined by 5.8 points to 71.8level in March from earlier rise of 77.6-mark in February. Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations remained unchanged at 3.3 percent in the current month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5872.6 19427.6 14514.11 1560.7 16061.2 1986.5 58497.8 12561.0 93.45 1592.50 2881.70 7758.50 102.09 Prev. day -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.6 0.0

as on March 15, 2013 WoW -1.2 -1.3 0.8 0.6 -0.9 -1.0 0.1 -0.1 1.6 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 MoM -0.3 -0.2 3.8 2.7 -3.6 0.3 2.1 11.1 -2.5 -0.7 -2.0 -1.1 0.0 YoY 10.4 6.2 9.5 11.3 -5.5 2.7 -13.6 24.1 -11.1 -4.0 -11.5 -9.5 -0.2

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.6 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, rise in retail sales, industrial production along with decline in unemployment claims and CPI data also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive which also acted as an unfavorable factor for the DX. The currency touched a low of 82.06 in the last week and closed at 82.26 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.26 54.02 54.20 54.19 Prev. day -0.4 0.3 -0.61 -0.63

as on March 15, 2013 WoW -0.6 0.6 -0.63 -0.64 MoM 2.1 0.5 -0.26 -0.27 YoY 3.5 -6.9 7.21 7.20

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.6 percent. The currency appreciated on the back of rise in countrys industrial production and manufacturing output, expectations of cut in the key rates by the central bank on Tuesday along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in Indias inflation data coupled with weak domestic market sentiments. The Indian Rupee touched a weekly high of 53.97 and closed at 54.02 against dollar on Friday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.5,440.90 crores th ($995.92 million) as on 15 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.51,939.0 crores ($9,630.50 million) till 15 March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for March 18, 2013 Support 54.0/53.80 Resistance 54.60/54.90

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 18, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, decline in Germans inflation and European Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.8 percent in the month of February. Core CPI also remained unchanged at 1.3 percent in the last month which also supported an upside in the currency. Further, European leaders met in the EU summit focused more on restoring growth and less on austerity measures also acted as a positive factor for the Euro. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of decline in regions industrial production data. The Euro touched a high of 1.3107 in the last week and closed at 1.3074 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate as the Euro zone finance minister decided to levy special tax on banks deposits in Cyprus to reduce the cost of bailout. Further, rise in risk aversion in the global market coupled with strength in DX will added downside pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.60/70.40 71.0/71.20 valid for March 18, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3074 70.52 70.6 70.8 Prev. day 0.5 0.0 0.20 0.44

as on March 15, 2013 WoW 0.5 0.0 -1.34 -1.08 MoM -2.2 2.8 -2.49 -2.25 YoY -0.1 7.00 7.27

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5113 81.651 82.15 Prev. day 0.22 -0.454 0.85

as on March 15, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound appreciated by 1.3 percent on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was prevented on account of decline in manufacturing and industrial production. UKs Conference Board (CB) Leading Index rose by 0.4 percent in the month of January. The Sterling Pound touched a high of 1.5176 in the last week and closed at 1.5113 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market coupled with strength in DX. Further, worries among the investors over the UKs economic conditions may add downside pressure. Technical Outlook valid for March 18, 2013
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up Support 81.80/81.40 Resistance 82.35/82.65

WoW 1.3 0.68 0.14

MoM -2.6 -3.15 -2.39

YoY -3.8 3.19 3.83

82.15

0.84

0.13

-2.38

3.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 18, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.8 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in early part of the week which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, rise in consumer confidence and manufacturing index also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was restricted as a result of decline in machinery orders, industry activity along with fall in machine tools orders. The Yen touched a weekly high of 95.06 and closed at 95.24 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 18, 2013 Support 56.30/56.10 Resistance 56.60/56.80
Source: Telequote

as on March 15, 2013 Last 95.24 0.5671 56.46 56.46 Prev day -0.9 0.12 -0.21 -0.21 WoW -0.8 0.21 -1.05 -1.07 MoM 1.9 -2.41 -3.78 -3.77 YoY 14.1 -6.02 -6.81 -6.83

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on March 18, 2013

Indicator Rightmove HPI m/m Italian Trade Balance Trade Balance NAHB Housing Market Index Country UK Europe Europe US Time (IST) 5:31am 2:30pm 3:30pm 7:30pm Actual 1.7% Forecast 2.11B 3.4B 48 Previous 2.8% 2.16B 12.0B 46 Impact Low Low Low Low

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