Possibility and Probability

Possibility
is referred to as the likelihood or chance for an event to occur.

Probability
a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It is referred to as the degree of chance for an event to occur.

Examples of Experiments

Experiment Toss a coin Select an appliance for inspection Conduct a sales call Roll a die

Experiment Outcomes Head, Tail Defective, nondefective

Purchase, no purchase 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Examples of Sample Space

Experiment Toss a coin Select an appliance for inspection Conduct a sales call Roll a die Toss two coins Select three appliances for inspection

Sample Space
S={Head, Tail} S={Defective, nondefective}

S={Purchase, no purchase} S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} S={HH,HT,TH,TT}, where HHead, and T- Tail

S={DDD, DDN,DNN,DND,NDN,NDD,NND,NNN}, where D-Defective and N-Nondefective

Methods of Assigning Probability Values to the Experimental Outcomes

Classical Method
The approach when the assumption of equally likely outcomes is used as basis. If an experiment involves n possible outcomes, the method assigns 1/n as the probability to each outcome. Experiment (eg. Flip of a coin outcome of H or T)
Exact outcome is unknown before conducting experiment All possible outcomes of experiment are known Experiment can be repeated under uniform conditions together with these, conditions produce

regularities or patterns in outcomes

Cont.
Relative Frequency Method
When there no reason to assume that two or more outcomes are equally likely to occur This method is used for an experiment where it is not possible to apply the classical approach (usually because outcomes not equally likely or the experiment is not repeatable under uniform conditions). The probability of an event E is the relative frequency of occurrence of E or the proportion of times E occurs in a large number of trials of the experiment.
.

Cont.
Subjective Method
Most appropriate when one cannot realistically assume that outcomes are equally likely to occur and when little relevant data are available. Experience or Intuition is important. Probability is subjective so different people can be expected to assign different probability values to the same outcome. In this method you make your best guess of the likelihood of the event, based on reliable information and good judgment. Inform yourself about the issue or discuss it with someone knowledgeable

Permutations
To find the number of Permutations of n items chosen r at a time, you can use the formula

n! p n r ( n r )! where 0 r n .

5! 5! 5 * 4 * 3 60 5 p3 (5 3)! 2!

Permutations
Practice: From a club of 24 members, a President, Vice President, Secretary, Treasurer and Historian are to be elected. In how many ways can the offices be filled?

24! 24! ( 24 5)! 19! 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 5,100,480

24 p5

Another type of permutation is involving n objects that are not distinct. How many different arrangements of letters in specific order (but not necessarily English words) can be formed using ALL the letters in the word REARRANGE?

The "words" we form will have 9 letters so we need 9 spots to place the letters. Notice some of the letters repeat. We need to use R 3 times, A 2 times, E 2 times and N and G once. 9C 6 4 C2 2 C1 1 C1 3 C2
First we choose positions for the R's. There are 9 positions and we'll choose 3, order doesn't matter

84 15 6 2 1 = 15 120 possible "words"

That leaves 6 positions for 2 A's. That leaves 4 positions for 2 E's. That leaves 2 positions That leaves for the N. 1 position for the G.

The number of permutations of n objects of which n1 are of one kind, n2 are of a second kind, . . ., and nk are of a kth kind is given by n! n1 ! n2 ! nk ! where n n1 n2 nk

A Challenging Example.
How many even numbers greater than 4000 can be formed using some or all of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if each digit must feature no more than once in a number? We could have even numbers with 4, 5 or 6 digits This Gives 4 possibilities to work with: PART A: 4, 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 4 OR 6

PART B: 4, 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 5

PART C: 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 2 PART D: 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 1 or 3

How many even numbers greater than 4000 can be formed using some or all of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if each digit must feature no more than once in a number?

PART A: 4, 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 4 OR 6

4 2

3 4

2 3

+
2

2 1

4 2

This gives a total of 240

A Challenging Example. Have a go. How many even numbers greater than 4000 can be formed using some or all of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if each digit must feature no more than once in a number?

PART B: 4, 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 5

4 1

3 4

3 3

+
2

1 1

4 3

This gives a total of 180

How many even numbers greater than 4000 can be formed using some or all of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if each digit must feature no more than once in a number?

PART C: 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 2

4 1

3 4

2 3

2 2

+
1 2

This gives a total of 96

How many even numbers greater than 4000 can be formed using some or all of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if each digit must feature no more than once in a number?

PART D: 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 1 or 3

4 2

3 4

2 3

3 2

+
1 3

This gives a total of 288

How many even numbers greater than 4000 can be formed using some or all of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if each digit must feature no more than once in a number? We could have even numbers with 4, 5 or 6 digits This Gives 4 possibilities to work with:

PART A: 4, 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 4 OR 6 = 240 PART B: 4, 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 5 = 180
PART C: 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 2 = 96 PART D: 5 or 6 EVEN digits beginning with a 1 or 3 =288 Number of possible even numbers greater than 4000 = 804

Combinations
A basketball team consists of two centers, five forwards, and four guards. In how many ways can the coach select a starting line up of one center, two forwards, and two guards?
Center:
2

Forwards:

Guards:

C1

2! 5! 5 * 4 4! 4 * 3 10 4 C2 2 5 C2 6 2!3! 2 * 1 2!2! 2 * 1 1!1!

2

C1 * 5 C 2 * 4 C 2

Thus, the number of ways to select the starting line up is 2*10*6 = 120.

Multiple-step experiments
If an experiment with k steps has n1 possible outcomes on the first step, n2 possible outcomes on the second step, etc., then the sample space has n1 n2 n3 ... nk sample points. If 3 persons are randomly selected from a large population with half females and half males, there are 2 2 2 = 8 outcomes for the sex of the persons selected. Each outcome is equally likely.

Second selection

Third Sample selection points

Probability

First selection
F

(F, F, F)

1/8 = 0.125

M F

(F, F, M)

1/8 = 0.125 1/8 = 0.125

(F, M, F) (F, M, M)

1/8 = 0.125
1/8 = 0.125

F F

(M, F, F) (M, F, M) F

1/8 = 0.125

(M, M, F) 1/8 = 0.125

Selection of 3 persons from a large population of half females and half males.

(M, M, M) 1/8 = 0.125 Sum = 1.000

An event is a collection of sample points . The probability of any event is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the sample points in the event . Event of selecting exactly two females (2F). P (2F) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8 = 0.375. This is the sum of the probabilities of the sample points FFM, FMF, and MFF.

Event

Sample of n = 46 students. Step one results organized into four groups by major: Math (including Actuarial and Statistics), Business, Economics, and Other. Step two results organized into four groups of experience level with Excel None (N), Low (L), Medium (M), or High (H). Each characteristic is reported in a tree diagram.

Results from certain survey

The complement Ac of an event A is the set of all sample points that are not in event A. P(A) + P(Ac) = 1 or P(Ac) = 1 P(A). Examples: The probability that a student in this class is not an Economics major (E) is 22/46. P(E) = 24/46 = 0.522 P(Ec) = 1 0.522 = 0.478 P(Excel skills not High) = 1 0.130 = 0.870

Complement of an event

Addition law
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) The probability that at least one event occurs is the probability of one event plus the probability of the other. But to avoid double counting, the probability of the intersection of the two events is subtracted.

Examples
Probability of a randomly selected student being an Economics major (E) or having high Excel skills (H)? P(EH) = P(E) + P(H) P(EH) = 24/46 + 6/46 2/46 = 28/46 = 0.609 Probability of Business (B) or low skills (L)? P(BL)= P(B) + P(L) P(BL) = 28/46 = 0.609 P(Other or medium) = 0.456

Example of mutually exclusive events

If 3 persons are randomly selected from a large population of which half are males, what is the probability of selecting 3 females (A) and at least 2 males (B)? Event A has sample point (F, F, F) . Event B has sample points (F, M, M), (M, F, M), (M, M, F) and (M, M, M) . Events A and B have no sample points in common, so P(AB) = 0.

Mutually exclusive events

Two events are mutually exclusive if the events have no sample points in common. If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability of A and B is zero. In this case, the probability of A or B is the sum of the probability of A and the probability of B. That is, P(AB) = 0 if A and B are mutually exclusive. Then P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)