Prepared By Ipsos Synovate, 22nd February 2013

None of the candidates garners 50%+1 for clear win 4 battlegrounds, 4 contested counties The race to the State House is a close call with the two leading candidates neck-to-neck only 10 days before the election. The latest Ipsos Synovate opinion poll shows that the support level for Uhuru Kenyatta stands at 44.8% whilst that of Raila Odinga is at 44.4 44.4% - an evident statistical tie in the support ratings. Musalia Mudavadi has 5.20% support which is mainly from Western Kenya. Notably, None of the aspirants or the political parties garners more than the 50%+1 of votes required to win in the round one election and this points to a likely run-off run off scenario, unless this situation changes significantly over the remaining pre-election election period. This survey was conducted countrywide between 15th-19th 19th February 2013 and using a face to face methodology. The survey polled 5,971 registered voters living in 47 counties in both rural and urban areas. The sample was distributed across the various coun counties proportionate to the population of registered voters in the counties. (See document on sampling approach and weighting procedure appended to this press release release)
Q. Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you v vote for if that person was a candidate?(By candidate? Total)

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Constitutional requirements equirements for a presidential candidate andidate to win Article 138/4 of the Constitution stipulates that a presidential candidat candidate will be declared a winner if he or she garners at least 25% in more than half (i.e. 24) of the 47 counties. According to the Ipsos Synovate combined combine poll analysis, a Uhuru and Ruto combination would garner the required 25% in 29 counties whilst Raila & Kalonzo would get the same in 33 counties. Number of counties candidate garner alt east 25% 29 out of 47 counties 33 out of 47 counties

Uhuru & Ruto Raila Kalonzo

Notes: Analysis based on a combined data set of January and February 2013 polls with a sample size of 11,866 The analysis is based on the question Apart Apart from President Kibaki, if presidenti presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate? It should hould be noted that only 4 out of the 47 counties in this sample had less than 100 respondents where the margin of error ror is higher in these counties. The margin of error is -/+9.8%

Battlegrounds, , contested and strongholds counties Ipsos Synovate is cognisant of the county level voter dynamics i.e. voter population size and diversities that could influence the outcome of this election. In light of this, our analysis has classified counties into; Battlegrounds counties where there is a difference of less than 10% between any top 2 candidates Contested - counties where the difference between the top two candidates is in the range of 11% - 20% Strongholds counties where the difference between the top two candi candidates is more than 20%
County Classification Raila & Kalonzo Strongholds Uhuru & Ruto Strongholds Battleground counties Contested counties Total Number of counties 19 20 4 4 47

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Alliance/presidential presidential candidate support by county

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Concluding Caution These opinion poll results give an indication of voter behavior and intentions. However, it is difficult to predict the real outcome as some factor could influence the results; Voter turn-out The voters could make change their voting intentions based on informal and subjective affiliations iliations with a political alliance/candidates alliance/candidate
Survey Methodology:

The target population for this survey was all registered voters. The sample size was 5,971 respondents living in urban and rural areas. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this polls sample size is +/-1.27 +/ with a 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the opinions of the target population at a national level. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between the 15th -19th February 2013. 2013. Data was collected through face to face interviews at the household level. (See detailed methodology document)
Key respondent t Demographics The sample had 46% females and 54% males. The age profile was 18-24 24 (2 (27%); 25-24 (30%); 3544 (18%) and 45+ (25%). 37% of the sample lives in urban areas whilst 63% live in rural areas. Survey Financing Ipsos Synovate funded the survey.

For further details on this press release please contact: Dr Tom Wolf Research Analyst twolf@wananchi.com Tel: 386 2721-33 www.ipsos.co.ke Victor Rateng Opinion Polls Project Manager victor.rateng@ipsos.com Tel: 386 2721-33 Margaret Ireri MD Margaret.ireri@ipsos.com Tel: 386 2721 2721-33

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