Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 21, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 21, 2013

Highlights
US Federal Funds Rate kept unchanged at 0.25 percent in March. Europe Current Account was at surplus of 14.8 bn Euros in January. UKs Claimant count change was at -1500 in the month of February. Japans Trade Balance at a deficit of 1.09 trillion Yen in last month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of US Federal Reserve statement that it will continue with its stimulus measures program coupled with expectations of monetary easing from Bank of Japan. US Federal Funds Rate kept unchanged at 0.25 percent in the month of March. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.3 points to 51.7-mark in March as against a rise of 50.4level in February.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5694.4 18884.2 14511.73 1558.7 16016.0 1959.4 58497.8 92.96 1607.50 2878.30 7619.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.9 -0.7 0.4 0.7 2.2 -1.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.1 1.5 0.0

as on March 20, 2013 WoW -2.7 -2.5 0.4 0.3 1.7 -2.0 1.9 0.5 1.2 -0.5 -2.2 0.5 MoM -4.2 -3.9 4.5 3.1 -1.3 -3.2 3.2 0.1 1.9 0.3 -2.9 -0.1 YoY 6.1 3.3 10.2 10.9 -5.5 1.5 -12.5 -12.0 -3.6 -9.5 -9.8 -0.4

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, statement from US Federal Reserve that it will continue with its bond buying program also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive which acted as an unfavorable factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.725 and closed at 82.95 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.95 54.36 54.46 54.45 Prev. day -0.3 0.0 -0.05 -0.07

as on March 20, 2013 WoW 0.1 0.1 -0.06 -0.08 MoM 2.2 -0.5 0.50 0.49 YoY 4.4 -7.0 7.84 7.83

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note in yesterdays trading session. The currency marginally depreciated on the back of withdrawal of support to the Congress leading UPA government by the DMK. Additionally, weak domestic market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, dollar demand from oil importers also acted as a negative factor for the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 54.56 and closed at 54.36 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,295.40 crores th ($1,338.03 million) as on 20 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.53,793.50 crores ($9,972.60 million) till 20th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped on account of uncertainty in the countrys political system after DMK withdraw its support from the UPA government along with dollar demand from oil importers.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for March 21, 2013 Support 54.30/54.15 Resistance 54.60/54.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 21, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trade as the Cyprus government is looking forward to the alternatives to avoid banking collapse in the nation and European Central Bank (ECB) gave assurance to provide liquidity to Cyprus. Further, expectation in the market that Russia may provide aid to Cyprus also supported Euro. Additionally, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX supported currency. German Producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.1 percent in February as compared to rise of 0.8 percent in January. Europe Current Account was at surplus of 14.8 billion Euros in January as against a previous surplus of 16.0 billion Euros a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2978 and closed at 1.2932 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate as the ECB gave assurance to provide liquidity to Cyprus and as the nation is looking forward to the alternatives to avoid banking collapse. Further, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX will act as a positive factor. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 21, 2013 Support 70.10/69.80 Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2932 70.42 70.3 70.3 Prev. day 0.4 -0.7 -0.30 -0.35

as on March 20, 2013 WoW -0.2 0.1 -0.72 -0.73 MoM -2.6 2.7 -3.06 -3.06 YoY -2.2 5.55 5.53

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

70.60/70.85

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5095 82.008 82.36 Prev. day -0.01 -0.094 -0.05

as on March 20, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.01 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of unfavorable economic data from UK. Further, countrys Chancellor George Osborne cut the 2013 economic growth forecast to 0.6 percent as compared to previous estimates of 1.2 percent also added downside pressure. However, Bank of England (BOE) policy meeting minutes showed that the majority of policy makers were not in favor of more quantitative easing prevented sharp depreciation in pound. UKs Claimant count change was at -1500 in February as compared to 12,500 in January. UKs Unemployment rate remained unchanged to 7.8 percent in January. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5025 and closed at 1.5095 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, BOE policy meeting minutes showed that the majority of policy makers were not in favor of more quantitative easing will support currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 21, 2013 Support 82.0/81.60 Resistance 82.65/83.0

WoW 1.2 1.08 0.99

MoM -0.9 -0.40 -0.66

YoY -4.8 2.60 2.90

82.38

-0.02

1.02

-0.64

2.92

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 21, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.9 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 1.09 trillion Yen in February as against a previous deficit of 0.74 trillion Yen in January. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 96.13 and closed at 96.01 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, expectations of stimulus measures from central bank of the country coupled with deficit in the trade balance data will exert downside pressure in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 21, 2013 Support 56.90/56.70 Resistance 57.40/57.80
Source: Telequote

as on March 20, 2013 Last 96.01 0.5661 57.08 57.08 Prev day 0.9 -1.03 -0.16 -0.17 WoW -0.1 0.00 0.09 0.11 MoM 2.6 -1.96 -1.48 -1.50 YoY 14.7 -6.01 -5.43 -5.44

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on March 21, 2013

Indicator FOMC Press Conference Trade Balance HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Retail Sales m/m Public Sector Net Borrowing CBI Industrial Order Expectations Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Country US Japan China Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe UK UK UK US US US US Time (IST) 12:00am 5:20am 7:15am 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual -1.09T 51.7 Forecast -1.01T 51.2 44.4 44.1 50.8 54.9 48.2 48.2 0.5% 8.4B -16 343K 55.1 5.02M -1.6 Previous -0.68T 50.4 43.9 42.7 50.3 54.1 47.9 47.3 -0.6% -9.9B -14 332K 54.3 4.92M -12.5 Impact High Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High

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