Ecosystem

Services for Disaster Risk Reduc5on

Modeling the eects of land use on freshwater ood mi6ga6on in El Salvador Beth Tellman

Disasters in El Salvador
Country Most Vulnerable to Disasters in the World

# of people Event Frequency killed Earthquake 4 1,160 Hydrological 24 1,008 Volcanic 1 2 Drought 4 0 Epidemics 1 304 Violence daily 82,650

# of people Cost in aected Billions of $ 1,607,771 $1.8 577,843 $2.7 2,000 ? 400,000 $0.22 50,000 ? ? $9*

*represents costs es5mates from 1995, 2003, and 2008 alone .

Dynamic Land Use Change

2% of Primary Forest Remaining Most densely populated in Central America 296/km2 War, Immigra5on, and Urbaniza5on Secondary forest resurgence or destruc5on?

1990

~22% recovery low density woodland (1-30% cover) ~6.5% recovery medium density woodland (31-60% cover) Hecht and Saatchi (2007)

Flood Mi5ga5on is an Ecosystem Service that could be quan5ed and Mapped to become an integral part of Disaster Risk Reduc5on and poten5ally PES schemes in watersheds (De Groot et al 2010, Nedkov
and Burkhard 2012)

 Not seeing the soil for the trees!

(Bruijnzeel 2004)

Are Forests Really Sponges?

Limited to small to medium oods and to forest cover changes more than 20% (Ennaanay
et al 2011, Bathurst et al 2011)

Poten5al of secondary forest, planta5ons, and reforesta5on to rebuild to retain ES highly dependent on topography, previous land use (Scoi et al 2005,
(Giambelluca 2002)

Urban Surfaces Reduce Flood Mi5ga5on

- Study by MARN (Salvadoran Ministry of Environment) -HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS modeling calibrated by observed data at gauge sta5on -increased ood peak by 70% for a 2 year ood (small) 10% for 300 year ood (large)

2009 1999

2009 1999

1. Measure Land Use Change with Remote Sensing Land Sat Data (8 Classes and 5 sub classes NDVI and LAI (ground truth this summer)

Land Cover 12/1969

Land Cover 1/2003

Land Cover 11/2004

Land Cover 7/2005

Land Cover 3/2009

Land Cover 3/2010

Land Cover 7/2011

Land Cover 4/2012

Land Cover 1/2003

Model Precipita5on/Runo with HEC-HMS

Calibra5on and Tes5ng

Run Model on Other Watersheds

Compare Model and Observed Discharge

Change Parameters

Re-Run Model

Apply to San Antonio

Maps by Author with MARN Data

Scenario Mapping/Sensi5vity Analysis

Predict stream ow under dierent precipita5on and land use condi5ons Site priority areas for reforesta5on/ conserva5on Understand ecosystem service hazard mi5ga5on supply loca5on, area, and limita5ons
Maps by Author with MARN 2010 Land Use Map

Products, Relevance to ES, and Ques5ons

Bilingual report to Ministry of Environment and NGOs working in relevant communi5es Publica5on in English scien5c journal Biophysical quan5ca5on an important step for economic valua5on, mul5ple service bundling, tradeos Reconciling hazard regula5on service supply and demand? Modeling other hazard regula5on services of forests (landslide mi5ga5on, sediment reten5on)?