Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 25, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 25, 2013 Market Highlights (% change)
as on March 22, 2013 Prev. day -0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 -0.1 0.2 -2.4 1.4 -0.5 -1.8 0.8 0.0 WoW -3.8 -3.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -1.9 2.9 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 MoM -3.4 -3.0 5.3 2.7 3.2 -3.5 2.7 9.6 0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 YoY 7.1 2.4 11.2 11.8 -2.5 0.0 -11.1 21.8 -11.0 -2.2 -8.5 -7.8 0.0

Highlights
German Ifo Business Climate declined to 106.7-mark in March. Cyprus agrees a bailout deal for 10 million Euros to prevent default. Belgium NBB Business Climate was at -15-mark in the last month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of European Finance Ministers agreeing a bailout deal for Cyprus thereby reducing the threats for default of the nation. The European Union, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have agreed a aid package of 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) for the Cyprus nation. As per the agreement the Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl (CPB) will be shutdown and spilt. Bank of Cyprus will take over the assets of the closed bank along with 9 billion Euros in central bank which was provided for emergency liquidity aid.
NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Last 5651.4 18735.6 14512.03 1556.9 16045.5 1948.7 58497.8 12338.5 93.71 1606.20 2866.60 7668.00 102.09

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, European Union giving ultimatum to Cyprus to seek the bailout of 5.8 billion Euros which the nation is struggling to agree thereby worsening the Euro Zone debt crisis also supported an upside in the currency. Unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone also acted as a positive factor for the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of favorable economic data from the US. The currency touched a weekly high of 83.315 and closed at 82.529 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.53 54.34 54.36 54.36 Prev. day -0.5 0.2 0.07 0.07

as on March 22, 2013 WoW 0.3 -0.6 0.30 0.32 MoM 1.2 -0.1 0.12 0.14 YoY 3.9 -5.6 6.05 6.07

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.6 percent. The currency depreciated on the back of DMK withdrawing its support from the UPA government which created political uncertainty in the nation. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks. The Indian Rupee touched a low of 54.56 in the last week and closed at 54.34 against dollar on Friday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,546.80 crores nd ($1,384.39 million) as on 22 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital nd inflows stood at Rs.54,044.90 crores ($10,019.0 million) till 22 March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks will also support an upside in the currency.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for March 25, 2013 Support 54.60/54.45 Resistance 54.90/55.05

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 25, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week as ECB said it may cut the emergency fund to Cyprus bank after March 25 if a Cyprus does not come with a plan to ensure bank solvency. Further, unfavorable economic data from Euro region coupled with strength in the DX added downside pressure on the currency. German Ifo Business Climate declined by 0.7 points to 106.7-mark in March as against a rise of 107.4-level in February. Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate was at -15-mark in March from previous fall of 11-level in the last month. The Euro touched a low of 1.2843 in the last week and closed at 1.2985 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate as t he finance ministers from EU approved the bailout plan for Cyprus, reducing the risk of default. Further, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX will support Euro to gain strength. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.65/70.35 71.05/71.30 valid for March 25, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2985 70.50 70.5 70.5 Prev. day 0.7 -0.6 0.43 0.40

as on March 25, 2013 WoW -0.7 0.0 -0.21 -0.47 MoM -1.5 1.4 -1.55 -1.54 YoY -1.6 4.49 4.50

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5229 82.766 82.65 Prev. day 0.38 0.436 0.04

as on March 25, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.8 percent on the back of favorable economic data from the country. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly high of 1.5247 and closed at 1.5229 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 25, 2013 Support 82.90/82.70 Resistance 83.35/83.50 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW 0.8 1.37 0.61

MoM 0.5 0.59 -0.28

YoY -3.7 2.19 2.09

82.64

0.02

0.60

-0.31

2.07

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| March 25, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.8 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavorable economic data from the country capped sharp gains in the currency. The Yen touched a weekly high of 94.03 and closed at 94.50 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 25, 2013 Support 57.60/57.30 Resistance 58.10/58.50

JPY (% change)
Last 94.5 0.575 57.35 57.35 Prev day -0.4 0.52 0.40 0.40

as on March 22, 2013 WoW -0.8 1.39 1.57 1.58 MoM 1.2 -1.05 -1.55 -1.56 YoY 14.5 -7.29 -7.16 -7.17

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on March 25, 2013

Indicator BBA Mortgage Approvals Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Country UK US Time (IST) 3:00pm 10:45pm Actual Forecast 33.6K Previous 32.3K Impact Medium High

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