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Roanomics Volume 3, Issue 2
Roanomics Volume 3, Issue 2
Roanomics Volume 3, Issue 2
Roanomics
Volume 3, Issue 2
Winter and Spring 2013
Advising tips:
The Economics Program offers a major and a minor If you major in BUAD, there are only five additional courses left to complete the minor in ECON (one of which can count as the BUAD elective) Several of the ECON 200-level courses serve as electives in BUAD concentrations ECON 121 can substitute for an INQ 260
Reaching out
This is our fifth release of Roanomics and it continues to grow in popularity. Several alumni have sent emails or posted on social networking outlets that they enjoy reading through the newsletter. We are thrilled that Roanomics is catching on in this way. Reconnecting with alumni was one of the purposes of the newsletter. If there is something that you would like to see in the next issue, send an email to roanokeecon@gmail.com Remember that you can keep up to date on the Economics Program between issues of Roanomics by following our blog, kassensroanokeecon.blogspot.c om, which is updated several times a month, including items on current students.
Blog 10,000 hits Health and the labor market Student comment on the economy Economics Club Upcoming events
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There are currently 27 declared majors and 14 declared minors in the Economics Program. Declare yours here
Volume 3, Issue 2
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"A lot of people talk about majoring in business ... actually, economics is even better, because you learn a lot more quantitative analysis, a lot more statistics, and things that are applicable in kind of this big data world," she says. "Similar to physics, it's really good for salary growth overall." -Kelsey Sheehy, US News and World Report, College Majors with the Best Rate of Return on Investment, September 12, 2012.
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Roanomics
Alice Kassens
Volume 3, Issue 2
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Presentations
Dr. Alice Louise Kassens The Impact of Clinical Depression on the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Adults, American Economics Association Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA Katie and James The giving and getting of mentorship, Roanoke College Faith and Learning Series Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations in Virginia, Virginia Association of Economists Annual Meeting, Richmond, VA Do as I say and as I do: Adaptation of the Mentor Demonstration Model, Price Expectations in Virginia, Virginia Association of Economists Annual Meeting, Richmond, VA The Impact of Clinical Depression on the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Adults and PPACA, Roanoke College Coffee Shop Series Katherine Thornton `13 The Impact of Socioeco-
finance, Virginia Association of Economists Annual Meeting, Richmond, VA James Bradshaw `13 One and done or four more years, Virginia Association of Economists Annual Meeting, Richmond, VA Dr. Edward Nik-Khah
The Economic Origins of Pharmaceutical Ignorance", Economics Faculty Discussion Group, Vir ginia Military Institute
Publications
Dr. Alice Louise Kassens Consumer sentiment falls to begin new year. (2013). Boston, MA: MassINC Polling Group. http:// www.massincpolling.com/? p=794 Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations in Virginia. (2013) Salem, VA: Institute of Policy and Opinion Research. (February 2013) Dr. Edward Nik-Khah "A Discipline in Trouble," Journal of Economic Methodology 20(1): 93-98 Dr. Robert Stauffer (2013, January 9) Excess Reserves Used by Banks in Lending [Letter to the Editor]. The W all Street Journal, A16. (online version)
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Roanomics
Fed Challenge: Coach & Lecturer Michelle Crook
The theme of my sixth Fed Challenge Team centered on uncertainty. The Team identified uncertainties in the labor market, consumer confidence, the Fiscal Cliff, and the impact of Hurricane Sandy as threats to the economy. Additionally, Hurricane Sandy cancelled the Teams original presentation date leaving us uncertain when we would present our research. When the new presentation date was announced, new employment data had been released leaving all eleven teams representing colleges and universities throughout the Commonwealth of Virginia scrambling to update the final scripts. The academic competition, regionally sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, is designed to expand the understanding of the Federal Reserve System's unique role in the economy and the importance of monetary policy conducted by the Federal Open Market Committee. Encouraging a better understanding of the nations central bank, the forces influencing economic conditions in the United States and abroad, and the ways the economy affects consumers lives, the competition develops students' research, presentation, and critical thinking skills. This years team included Kerry Murphy, Ian Kervick-Jimenez, Brunella Salazar, Tiffany Ingram, and Conner Dubois. I would describe this years team as cohesive, a kindred of kind souls, intellectually curious, and conscientious. Despite not advancing to finals, I have never had a team more accurately predict the outcome of the FOMC meeting following the competition. I even questioned if the FOMC read our script and published it as their press release in the weeks following our presentation. See the table below for a comparison. We delivered our oral presentation to a panel of Federal Reserve economists, who then rated our performance based on content, teamwork, and ability to provide impromptu responses to spontaneous questions. A special thank you goes out to Roanoke College Professor Emeritus, Dr. Robert Stauffer, Dr. Alice Kassens, Dr. Garry Fed Policy Decision December 12, 2013 Continued QE3 and added Treasuries to MBS Announced Forward Guidance based on unemployment and inflation 6.5% Fleming, and Dr. Edward NikKhah who ensured that this years team was on the right path a several key stages of the semester. As the Coach, I had two gratifying moments during the semester. First, it was a privilege to hear Jeffrey M. Lacker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, deliver his economic outlook at The Hotel Roanoke and Conference Center on October 15, 2012. Not only did team member Brunella Salazar and Dr. Robert Stauffer join me, but all three of us were able to ask Mr. Lacker very specific questions about the economy. Second, I was gratified as I read the FOMCs press release in the Wall Street Journal in December as our semester concluded because this years team got it right! With absolute certainty, this years team represented Roanoke College well and made me proud!
Michelle Crook
Date of Delivery Regarding QE3 Regarding Forward Guidance Maximum Rate of Unemployment before interest rates are changed Maximum Rate of Inflation before interest rates are changed Regarding Operation Twist
Roanoke College Recommendation November 9, 2012 Continue QE3 but add in Treasuries with MBS purchases Implement Forward Guidance based on economic metrics such unemployment and inflation 7.3% begin cutting back on QE3
2.3%
2.5%
Continued but instead of selling short-term Treasuries the Fed began funding its purchases by adding reserves to the banking system
Volume 3, Issue 2
Fed Challenge: Student reflection
Have you ever seen someone hanging from the side of a building in order to clean it? I did, at the Federal Reserve Bank in Richmond, Va. The Fed Challenge was a wonderful learning experience and very interesting as well. At the beginning of the semester, every team member chose a topic on the economy that they would like to study more deeply than another part. I chose Gross Domestic Product (GDP). I had heard about GDP of course in class, but I had never gone into a lot of depth with it to see what it was really all about. After studying GDP for numerous weeks, it was time to put my knowledge together with the rest of the team and make our economic analysis. Over fall break we were to have our scripts typed and finished before we got back to school; it was crunch time. Our team decided to use Prezi for our presentation and one member created it, while the rest of us had speaking parts. We gave a practice presentation for some economics faculty, which was kind of scary to be honest. I did not feel too good about our presentation after we finished presenting it to them. We made changes and revisions to improve it afterwards. Our original presentation date was postponed due to Hurricane Sandy. Before I knew it, we were meeting in the parking lot and loading up the van to head to Richmond. We had a lovely dinner, and stayed in a very nice hotel. Roanoke College was definitely able to make us feel important while in Richmond. Presentation day was extremely crazy. After we went through security, and we were in the lobby waiting for our turn, I was very nervous. I had so many different thoughts running through my head. We finally got called in the presentation room, and after I said my first part, I felt a weight lifted off my chest. Our team did really well as a whole and the judges were pleased. This was one of the best experiences I have ever had. There just are not words to explain all the emotions you go through, and what you see. I wish I could go back because now I know I wasted a lot of time being nervous for no reason. It was a lot of fun, and I learned so much. After practicing and memorizing my part of the script, I do not think I will ever forget those lines. It was a lot of hard work through-out the semester, but it all paid off in the end. Studying the economy is great, but actually getting to go to the Federal Reserve and suggesting new monetary policies and a new strategy to relieve the economy was amazing. I have never taken another class that can even compare to the type of work and final presentation that is involved with The Fed Challenge. I would recommend it to anyone who is offered the chance and is interested in the economy. Talking to judges and seeing the Fed is awesome, I would love to be able to take this course again. Also, a special thanks to Coach Crook, for being so patient with us throughout the semester and always there to help. Tiffany Ingram `13
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Roanomics
Roanoke College Economics Blog Passes 10,000 Hits
Dr. Alice Louise Kassens started the Roanoke College Economics Program Blog in 2010 as a way of promoting the Economics Program and sharing all of the great things that the faculty and students accomplished. Blog posts have ranged from research updates for faculty and students, awards and recognitions, commentaries on economic issues, and upcoming events. The blog passed 10,000 hits in early 2013. In honor of this milestone Roanomics editors Dr. Kassens and Kerry Murphy `13 decided to share the blogs top ten list. Enjoy and thank you for all of your support.
Date
TOP REFERRING SITES: Google Facebook Roanoke.edu 4/19/2012 3/26/2012 4/12/2012 11/6/2012 11/9/2010
Title
McGraw-Hill PowerPoint Slides for Dornbusch, Fischer, and Startz Roanomics is here! Vol. 3, Iss. 1 An Election day distraction Congratulations Chris Kwaramba `12 Congratulations Sara Caudle `12 Roanomics Volume. 2, Issue 2
# Hits Summary
631 A description of the supplemental teaching materials Dr. Kassens prepared for a widely used macroeconomics textbook. The fourth issue of the Economics Program newsletter Note on Chris Kwarambas successful defense of his Honors in Major project Note on Sara Caudles successful defense of his Honors in Major project The third issue of the Economics Program newsletter Link to TV interview of Dr. Kassens on consumer sentiment and Black Friday Overview of Dr. Kassens ECON 122 student commentary on the fiscal cliff Link to one of Kassens papers that made an exclusive list in 2011 Note on Sara Caudles acceptance to prestigious research conference Announcement and link to joint effort accepted for publication
ant to read some other economics blogs? http:// econacademics.org/ has many links Dont forget to visit Dr. Kassens blog or its concise complimentary Tumblr page which has frequent posts on economic research and data
11/28/2011 Dr. Kassens on News 7 11/20/2012 The fiscal cliff: Avoid it or take the plunge 12/15/2011 Kassens paper makes top ten list on SSRN 1/8/2012 Sara Caudle `12 accepted to present at NCUR
NOTE: The # hits does not count the blog authors access.
Volume 3, Issue 2
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Want macroeconomic data? Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) is a great secondary source of government data. FRED recently released an excel add-in to increase the ease of data manipulation. It was used to generate the plot of the ICS below. Over 64,000 data series are available free of charge.
Volume 3, Issue 2
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FEATURE
GRADUATE SCHOOL ADMISSIONS
We have had a banner year for graduate school admissions for both current seniors and alumni. If we have missed you, please drop us a line at roanokeecon@gmail.com Yahia Abuhashem American University Economics, PhD Zach Birtsch James Madison University College Student Personnel Administration, Masters The College of William and Mary Education Leadership, Masters of Education Chanho Song Brandeis University Business, Masters SUNY-Buffalo Economics, Masters Vanderbilt University Economics, Masters Katherine Thornton American University Statistics, Masters University of Pittsburgh Statistics, Masters Virginia Tech Statistics, Masters
Samantha Sterba `09 is currently working on her PhD in Economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
Sterba `09 She advises Roanoke College student going straight to graduate school from Roanoke College: Don't be intimidated by your peers who may be entering your program with graduate degrees already completed and years of experience and skills already acquired. The admissions committee already made those comparisons and you made the cut. Stay focused on your goals and make it a point to take care of yourself.
re you considering going to graduate school? If you are considering a graduate program in economics, a good reference to get you started is http://www.aeaweb.org/gradstudents/
Talk to any economics professor if you are interested in pursuing a graduate degree. We are more than happy to help.
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Conrad Classen
Volume 3, Issue 2
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Guzman Correa
Alison Wellington
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Roanomics
Volume 3, Issue 2
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Economics Program
221 College Lane Salem, VA 24153 Phone: 540-375-2426 Fax: 540-375-2577 E-mail: roanokeecon@gmail.com
...Because we view economics as solidly within the liberal arts, we are committed to examining the relationship between economics and other areas of knowledge. Students will therefore find it to be an excellent complement to many other majors, including, but not limited to public policy, sociology, history, environmental policy, mathematics, biology, and business administration, as well as concentrations such as gender studies and peace and justice studies. For information about the Economics Program contact Dr. Garry Fleming (fleming@roanoke.edu) For comments or suggestions about the newsletter email roanokeecon@gmail.com Read our blog: kassensroanokeecon.blogspot.com Faculty Editor: Dr. Alice Louise Kassens Student Editor: Kerry Murphy 13
Follow us on Twitter @roanokeecon Tell us what is new with you roanokeecon.blogspot.com Join the BUAD/ECON Facebook page
We are now planning a trip to Paris and Normandy this spring, and I'm hoping the From Phoenix we took the Euro will slide a little more scenic route over to Globe, in value (it's now at about We stayed in Scottsdale AZ, a gritty copper mining $1.30). The resilience of the which is a haven for affluent town and the polar opposite of Euro, despite massive ecoretirees. Upscale shops and Scottsdale. We followed the nomic problems in the Eurogood restaurants are everyApache Trail, a mountain zone, is further proof where; there is even a Bentroad built around 1900 that super easy Federal Reley dealership tucked in beto provide supplies for the serve policy is distorting martween Lexus and Mercedes. construction of the Theodore kets. However, the best examBesides shopping and dining, Roosevelt dam, one of the ple is the recent all-time highs we went to the Heard Muse- first federal water projects in of the Dow-Jones; despite um, a world-class exhibition Arizona. The Trail includes stagnant GDP growth, high of Native American art and 26 miles of rough dirt road, unemployment, increases in history. The most memorable with hairpin curves and one payroll taxes, and a dysfuncexhibit was a history of lane sections. Our fellow trav- tional government in D.C. (as boarding schools for Indian elers were driving SUV's and in Deficit City). But not to
worry: Ben Bernanke and the Fed are printing dollars at the rate of over $80 billion a month. If this continues for most of the year, fasten your seat belts--it's could be a rough inflationary ride ( a lot worse than the Apache Trail.) There's also a high chance the stock market will decline substantially when the Fed decides to slow down the monetary printing presses and allow interest rates to return to more normal levels. Happy Travels, Dr. Bob