Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 28, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 28, 2013 Market Highlights (% change)
as on March 27, 2013 Prev. day 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.0 WoW -1.8 -1.6 0.1 0.9 -4.1 1.7 4.4 -0.1 3.9 -0.5 -0.7 0.5 MoM -2.1 -1.6 3.4 4.4 -2.1 -0.5 2.8 7.2 4.9 2.2 0.6 -0.2 YoY 7.6 2.3 10.1 10.3 -6.9 1.7 -10.1 21.8 -10.0 -4.7 -12.3 1.0

Highlights
German gfk consumer climate remained unchanged in March UK current account deficit was at pound 14 billion in Q4. UK Final GDP for Q4 remained unchanged. US pending home sales declined by 0.4 percent in February Japans retail sales fell by 2.3 percent in February. Asian markets are trading lower on the back of worries over Europes debt crisis coupled with unfavorable pending home sales data from US in yesterdays trade. US pending home sales declined by 0.4 percent in the month of February as compared to rise of 3.8 percent in the month of January. Japans retail sales fell by 2.3 percent in February as compared to decline of 1.1 percent in January.
NIFTY** SENSEX** DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Last 5641.6 18704.5 14526.16 1562.9 15353.9 1993.4 58497.8 12493.8 96.58 1606.20 2857.70 102.09

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, worries over Cyprus bailout coupled with political uncertainty in Italy supported DX to gain strength. Further, negative economic data from US coupled with weak domestic markets supported DX to gain strength. The currency touched an intraday high of 83.52 and closed at 83.41 on Wednesday

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) 83.41 54.47 54.70 54.70 Prev. day 0.4 -0.3 1.11 1.11 WoW 0.6 0.0 0.39 0.39

as on March 27, 2013 MoM 2.1 -0.7 1.16 1.16 YoY 5.0 -6.3 6.55 6.55

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent on Tuesdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, expectations of Samajwadi Party (SP) may withdraw its support from the government added downside pressure. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 54.51 and closed at 54.47 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 8,577.60.crores ($1571.06million) as on 26th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 55,055.70.crores ($10205.7million) till 26th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, expectations that Samajwadi Party (SP) may withdraw its support from the UPA government will exert further downside pressure on the currency.

US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) ** US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) **

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for March 28, 2013 Support 54.55/54.40 Resistance 54.85/55.00

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 28, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of the worries over Cyprus bailout coupled with political uncertainty in Italy. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX added downside pressure. Additionally, unfavorable Italian retail sales data acted as a negative factor. German gfk consumer climate remained unchanged in month of March as compared to 5.9-mark in February. German Import prices rose by 0.3 percent in February as compared to increase by 0.2 percent in January. Italian retail sales declined by 0.5 percent for the month of January as compared to rise of 0.4 percent in December. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.275 and closed at 1.278 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of the rise in worries over Cyprus bailout coupled with political uncertainty in Italy. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX will add further downside pressure. Additionally, the borrowing cost for Italy rose to five month high and expectation of unfavorable economic data will also act as a negative factor for euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 28, 2013 Support 70.2/69.9 Resistance 70.7/71.0

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE)** Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCXSX)** 1.278 69.51 70.4 70.4 Prev. day -0.6 0.6 -0.14 -0.15

as on March 27, 2013 WoW -1.2 1.3 -0.22 -0.26 MoM -2.7 1.3 -0.32 -0.33 YoY -4.0 3.53 3.52

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.513 82.29 82.88 Prev. day -0.19 0.079 0.49

as on March 27, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.19 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, United Kingdom GDP data showed that countries growth contracted to 0.3 percent in Q4 also added downside pressure. United Kingdom (UK) current account deficit was at pound 14 billion in Q4 as compared to pound 15.1 billion in Q3. UK Final GDP for Q4 remained unchanged to -0.3 percent as compared to previous publication. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5092 and closed at 1.513 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 28, 2013 Support 82.75/82.5 Resistance 83.10/83.30 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE)** GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX)**

WoW 0.2 0.25 0.58

MoM -0.2 0.55 0.91

YoY -5.1 1.04 1.66

82.89

0.52

0.59

0.91

1.66

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| March 28, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen ended flat yesterday on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp appreciation in the currency was prevented on the back of expectation of further, monetary easing by Bank of Japan (BOJ). The Yen touched an intra-day high of 94.02 and closed at 94.43 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, decline in retail sales data may prevent sharp appreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 28, 2013 Support 57.80/57.6 Resistance 58.15/58.40
Source: Telequote

as on March 27, 2013 Last 94.43 0.5766 57.96 57.94 Prev day 0.0 0.03 1.43 1.44 WoW -1.6 0.80 1.37 1.33 MoM 2.4 -1.79 -1.45 -1.46 YoY 13.5 -6.23 -6.37 -6.40

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) ** JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)**

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on March 28, 2013

Indicator Retail Sales y/y German Retail Sales m/m Nationwide HPI m/m German Unemployment Change M3 Money Supply y/y BOE Credit Conditions Survey Unemployment Claims Final GDP q/q Chicago PMI Country Japan Europe UK Europe Europe UK US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 12:30pm 12:30pm 2:25pm 2:30pm 3:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:15pm Actual -2.3% Forecast 0.9% -0.5% 0.2% -2K 3.2% 340K 0.5% 56.5 Previous -1.1% 3.0% 0.2% -3K 3.5% 336K 0.1% 56.8 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

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