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Bms Project Shubham 4
Bms Project Shubham 4
Bms Project Shubham 4
AND
STATISTICS PROJECT
Submitted to:
Dr. Gulshan Kumar
Submitted by:
Shubham Goyal
Class: B.COM/LLB
(4TH semester)
Roll No.: 153/11
REGRESSION
The technique of regression is considered to be the most useful
statistical tool. It is helpful in making quantitative predictions in
business in the behavior of the related variables. The main uses of
regression analysis are:
(1)
Prediction of Unknown Value: The regression analysis
technique is very useful in predicting the probable value of an
unknown variable in response to some known related variable.
(2)
Nature of Relationship: The regression device is useful in
establishing the nature of relationship between two variables.
(3)
Estimation of Relationship: Regression analysis is
extensively used for the measurement and estimation of the
relationship among variables. It is an important statistical device
which provides basis for analysis and interpretation in research
studies.
(4)
Calculation of co-efficient of determination: The regression
analysis provides regression co-efficients which are generally used
in calculation of co- efficients of correlation. The square of coefficient of correlation is called the co- efficient of determination
which measures the degree of association that exists between two
variables.
(5)
Helpful in calculation of error: regression analysis is very
helpful in estimating the error involved in using the regression lines
as a basis for estimation.
METHODOLOGY
DATE
31-Jan-13
30-Jan-13
29-Jan-13
28-Jan-13
25-Jan-13
24-Jan-13
23-Jan-13
22-Jan-13
21-Jan-13
18-Jan-13
17-Jan-13
16-Jan-13
15-Jan-13
14-Jan-13
11-Jan-13
10-Jan-13
09-Jan-13
08-Jan-13
07-Jan-13
04-Jan-13
total
sensex(X)
19894.98
20,005.00
19,990.90
20,103.35
20,103.53
19,923.53
20,026.61
19,981.57
20,101.82
20,039.04
19,964.03
19,817.63
19,986.82
19,906.41
19,663.64
19,663.55
19,666.59
19,742.52
19,691.42
19,784.08
398,057.02
T C S(Y1) S B I(Y2)
1342.75
2436.6
1343.85
2435.4
1342.5
2457.3
1343.65 2490.15
1337.8
2513.25
1325.75
2458.4
1311.85
2480.3
1315.75 2464.35
1331.6
2497.75
1351.15
2491.2
1362.25 2468.35
1348.1
2432.9
1334.3
2488.9
1334.3
2498.25
1306.35 2490.95
1258.55
2539.2
1275.75 2521.65
1298.3
2493.45
1290.55
2467
1297.5
2484.8
26452.6 49610.15
RECAPITAL(Y3)
474.8
470.95
468.45
476.95
475.75
464.1
479.5
483.95
490
480.55
478.85
479.9
496.1
494.9
479.65
494.2
497.55
501.65
501.35
501.7
9690.85
Regression equation of Y on X is
Y = a+bx
The two normal equations are :
Y2 = N.a + bx
XY = a.x + bY2
Substituting the value we get,
26452.6 = 20(a) + b(398057.02)
526542279.3 = a.398057.02 + b 7922921247
Multiply (1) by 19902.851 and subtracting it from (2)
526482156.3626 = 398057.02(a) + 7922469558.56
(-)526482156.3626
-47382156.3626 = b 784323548311.56
-0.6042072985 = b
Therefore, the value of b = -0.6042072985
Putting the value of b in equation (1)
26452.6 = 20a + 240508.95
-214056.35 = 20a
a = 10702.81
Regression Equation Y on X
Y = a+bx
The two normal equations are :
Y2 = N.a + bx
XY = a.x + bY2
Substituting the value we get,
49610.15 =
20a
b 398057.02
= 398057.02 a+ b7922921247
21198780.23765 = - 451688.43598b
b = 46.9323067607
therefore, the value of b = 46.9323067607
Putting the value of b in equation (1)
49610.15 = 20a + 18681734.1708901
-18632124.0208901 = 20a
a = -931606.201044505
DATE
sensex(X)
RECAPITAL(Y3) X.X
X.Y3
31-Jan13
474.8
9446136.504
19894.98
395810229.2
30-Jan13
470.95
9421354.75
20,005.00
400,200,025.00
29-Jan13
468.45
9364737.105
19,990.90
399,636,082.81
28-Jan13
476.95
9588292.783
20,103.35
404,144,681.22
25-Jan13
20,103.53
475.75
404,151,918.46
9564254.398
24-Jan13
464.1
9246510.273
19,923.53
396,947,047.66
23-Jan13
479.5
9602759.495
20,026.61
401,065,108.09
22-Jan13
483.95
9670080.802
19,981.57
399,263,139.66
21-Jan13
490
9849891.8
20,101.82
404,083,167.31
18-Jan13
20,039.04
480.55
401,563,124.12
9629760.672
17-Jan13
478.85
9559775.766
19,964.03
398,562,493.84
16-Jan13
479.9
9510480.637
19,817.63
392,738,458.82
15-Jan13
496.1
9915461.402
19,986.82
399,472,973.71
14-Jan13
494.9
9851682.309
19,906.41
396,265,159.09
11-Jan13
479.65
9431664.926
19,663.64
386,658,738.05
10-Jan13
494.2
9717726.41
19,663.55
386,655,198.60
09-Jan13
497.55
9785111.855
19,666.59
386,774,762.23
08-Jan13
501.65
9903835.158
19,742.52
389,767,095.95
07-Jan13
501.35
9872293.417
19,691.42
387,752,021.62
04-Jan13
501.7
9925672.936
19,784.08
391,409,821.45
Total
9690.85 7,922,921,247.00
1928574283
398,057.02
Regression Equation Y on X
Y = a+bx
The two normal equations are :
Y2 = N.a + bx
XY = a.x + bY2
Substituting the value we get,
9690.85 =
a. 20 +
b 398057.2
-1735698739.38665 = -b 448105.92228
b = 3873.4117338622
Putting the value of b in equation (1)
9690.85 = 20a + 1541839429.22833
a = -77091486.9189165
Date
Adj Close*
7 Feb, 2013
19,540.08
6 Feb, 2013
19,611.27
5 Feb, 2013
19,631.97
4 Feb, 2013
19,728.21
1 Feb, 2013
19,736.45
(i)
(ii)
= 1217.1184683407
(iii)
Y=10702.81 0.6042072985(19631.97)
=1158.969557933
(iv)
Y= 10702.81 0.6042072985(19,611.27)
=1146.4624668541
(v)
Y = 10702.81 0.6042072985(19540.08)
Y = 1103.4489492739
Putting the values of X in the above equation, the next five value of Y are :(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
Y = -77091486.9189165 +3873.4117338622(19736.45)
= 153538883.933701
Y=-77091486.9189165 +3873.4117338622(19728.21)
=153506967.021014
Y=-77091486.9189165 +3873.4117338622(19631.97)
=153134189.875747
Y=-77091486.9189165 +3873.4117338622(19611.21)
=153053777.848152
Y=-77091486.9189165 +3873.4117338622(19540.08)
=152778262.071522
CONCLUSION
From the above calculations done and projections made, we can conclude that(i)
(ii)
(iii)
When there will be fall in sensex, the share price of TCS will also fall, but the fall in
share prices is less than the fall in sensex.
When there will be fall in sensex, the share price of SBI will also fall, but the fall in
share prices is more than the fall in sensex.
When there will be fall in sensex, the share price of Reliance capital will also fall, but
the fall in share prices is more than the fall in sensex.