Regression Assignment: Relationship between GDP per capita and the number of cases of cholera By: Pooyan Sharifi

& Satbir Singh

W.H.O. Report: Choleras Relationship with GDP Proposal

Cholera
Across the world millions of people are affected by the acute gastrointestinal infection of cholera. Cholera is caused by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the strain of bacterium; Vibrio cholera. Once ingested, cholera affects the individual after 1-5 days. Symptoms include diarrhea and rapid dehydration, which if not treated properly can cause death.
Figure 1: Cholera Bacteria Microgram

Geography of Cholera
In 2004, 70% of all reported cases of cholera were from South Eastern Africa, Northern Africa and Central Africa. Mozambique (a country in central Africa) had the highest number of cases of cholera in 2004 with 20,000 cases. This trend has continued to this day as well as the continued economic disparity of this continent. On the other hand, it is evident that countries in the western hemisphere as well as Europe have no reported cases of cholera (refer to figure 2). Cholera has the greatest impacts on countries without access to clean drinking water and uncontaminated food. Figure 2: Cases of Cholera World Map (note that these are reported cases Therefore, it seems logical for there to be a may not represent the actual number) relationship between GDP per capita (purchasing power of a person) of a country and the number of reported cases of cholera. With a greater purchasing power, one would be able to purchase clean water and food as well as products for sanitation. Ultimately, the chance of contamination from the cholera bacterium would be far less likely.

Note that data is from 2002. Countries in Africa and Europe were selected for their data points (Africa and Europe have different socio-economic conditions)

Relationship Between GDP Per Capita and Cases of Cholera Disease

35000 Number of Reported Cases of Cholera 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 GDP per Capita of Country ($) y = 1E+07x-1.628 R = 0.7908 r = 0.8893 Number of Cases of Cholera Power Regression Trendline

Based off the regression calculated from the data points, there is a strong correlation that exists between the GDP per capita of a country and the number of cholera cases. The regression that was found to be the best fit for this correlation is a power regression (equation: y = 1E + 07x-1.628). Based off the calculated coefficient of correlation (r value) it is clear that our prediction is true. There is clearly a strong relationship that exists between these two variables. Using this equation one can predict that once the GDP per capita reaches close to zero, the number of cases of cholera will exponentially increase. Oppositely, as the GDP increases the number of cases of cholera will decrease. This would indicate that poorer countries will have higher cases of cholera while wealthier countries will have very few cases. However, there are some limitations on the data chosen and the model used to represent the correlation between these variables could be improved. To begin with, the data chosen was the number of cholera cases. This number may not be representative of the seriousness of this disease amongst the population. Countries in Africa with very large populations such as The Democratic Republic of Congo may have very large numbers of cholera cases but this is due to the size of the population. They will have more cases compared to poorer countries that in reality have a larger percentage of the population with the disease. A solution to this problem in the data would be to use the percentage of the countrys population that is affected by the disease therefore eliminating the problems associated with various

populations of countries. Another additional study that could be conducted to improve this investigation of correlation would be to determine the density of hospitals and doctor offices in each country. Remember, that it is the number of cholera cases that are reported and often in developing countries, cholera may occur to remote settlements without it being reported. By somehow incorporating the chance of cholera being reported, the regression model could be improved. Another improvement would be to use more data points (Ex. use data points for every country in the world) as this would improve the accuracy of the regression model. The UN could use this data as well as the associated regression model to understand the relationship between the variables. It is evident that increasing the spending power of a person will reduce the likelihood of cholera disease outbreaks. Therefore, to increase the spending power of the people of a country, it must develop its infrastructure and industries. By doing so, it will allow the developing countries to support themselves by utilizing their resources for trade. Foreign aid could be sent to countries with very low GDP per capita to start businesses and industries. Considering that countries in Africa have many natural resources, I believe it is possible for this situation to become an investment that benefits the investors and the people of the developing countries. By investing in industry in these countries, the country will create jobs and develop and soon will have revenues that far exceed the initial investment. Therefore the investors could get their money back with interest while the countries in Africa could develop. By developing, the GDP per capita would increase and ultimately reduce the number of cases of cholera disease. In my opinion, based off the regression model it is evident that a foreign aid policy of this nature would reap benefits for developed countries while industrializing developing countries to improve the lives of the people and make the world cholera free!

Austria Burundi Cameroon Comoros Czech Republic Cote DIvoire Democratic Rep. Congo France Germany Ghana Kenya Liberia Malawi Mozambique Netherlands Spain South Africa Zimbabwe England Norway Switzerland Luxembourg Finland Belgium Sweden Nigeria Somalia Zambia Guinea-Bissau Madagascar Mauritania Italy Greece Portugal Country

26270 100 640 450 6470 660 100 24770 25250 320 390 130 170 210 26310 16990 2780 350 28350 43350 39880 43940 27020 25820 28840 320 550 380 140 290 600 21560 13720 12130 GDP per Capita

1 270 66 1567 2 4188 31658 1 1 3614 291 1115 32618 24375 1 1 10004 3125 1 0 1 1 0 3 2 5429 2775 339 842 27 80 0 3 2 # of Cases of Cholera