2008-2011 RESEARCH PAPER: THE TWO WHEELER INDUSTRY.

SIDDHARTHA SHUKLA; ROLL NO: 83. SMT.JD BIRLA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT BATCH:- 2008-2011.

Letter to the Controller of Examination RESEARCH TOPIC THE INDIAN TWO WHEELER INDUSTRY.
COURSE BACHELORS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (BBA) LETTER:To, The Controller of Examination, Jadavpur University, Kolkata Respected Sir, This research work has been done by me and is an original work. The references used have been mentioned in the bibliography. This research is in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the BBA degree to be awarded by Jadavpur University. This research is based on secondary data. Yours Faithfully, SIDDHARTHA SHUKLA (2008-2011,rollno-83.) DECLARATIONS: To include plagiarism and ethical issues statements and word count is a formal requirement.

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I declare the following:

(1) That the material contained in this dissertation is the end result of my own work and that due acknowledgement has been given in the bibliography and references to ALL sources be they printed, electronic or personal. (2) The word count of this dissertation is 13,363 . (3) That unless this dissertation has been confirmed as confidential, I agree to an entire electronic copy or sections of the dissertation to being placed on the e-learning portal, if deemed appropriate, to allow future students the opportunity to see examples of past dissertations. I understand that if displayed on the e-learning portal it would be made available for no longer than five years and that student would not be able to print off copies or download. The authorship would remain anonymous. (4) I agree to my dissertation being submitted to a plagiarism detection services, where it will be stored in a database and compared against work submitted from this or any other school or from other institutions using the service. In the event of the service detecting a high degree of similarity between content within the service this will be reported back to my supervisor and second marker, who may decide to undertake further investigation that may ultimately lead to disciplinary actions, should instances of plagiarism be detected.

I declare that ethical issues have been considered, evaluated, and appropriately addressed in this research.
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Acknowledgement The report has been written as part of the course program for Bachelors of Business Administration at the J.D. Birla Institute.

I would also like to thank my dean of my institute Mr.Ashit Datta and my supervisor at J.D. Birla Institute -Sir. Tapobrata Ray -SIR has been generous with support and guidance and he has presented me with an excellent opportunity to explore and enjoy my analytical and reportwriting skills, consequently preparing me for my corporate future. I would like to express thanks to the librarians for the use of various textbooks from the learning resource center at J.D. Birla Institute, which provided me with background information about the academic topics that have been applied in the project.

It has been a pleasurable challenge and I look forward to many more such experiences.

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Abstract:India is the 2nd largest two-wheeler market in the world with a size of over Rs. 100,000 million. Production during the period reached 10.8 million units, entailing a demand ratio of ~72%. In terms of sales and market share the major players of the industry are Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors. Other players include Kinetic Motors, Yamaha Motor and Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI). -The composition of the industry consists of motorcycles, scooters and mopeds. Over the past decade, there has been a consumer preferential shift from mopeds to scooters and now motorcycles. On account of the shift, the motorcycle segment dominates the two-wheeler industry with a market share of close to 80%. - The motorcycle segment is further sub divided into 3 classes, starting from the entry/economy class (Rs 30,000 Rs 40,000), executive class (Rs 40,000 Rs 50,000) and the premium class (>Rs 50,000). The motorcycle segment is primarily led by Hero Honda with a market share of ~59% followed by Bajaj Auto (~18%), HMSI (~9%), TVS Motors (~7%) and Yamaha (~5%).

In this project we deal with the

- Strategy planning , market segmentation , problems or issues identification ,strategy implementation , demand drivers, future market scope, overseas strategies of the two wheeler industry of India. There is also a detailed industry analysis of BAJAJ its market development strategy, market structure, and strategies as a whole is discussed -swot analysis and comparative analysis between BAJAJ and HERO HONDA is also shown.
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The regression and co- relation further helps us to understand which is the important factor which affects the production rate in the industry.

CONTENTS:1.INTRODUCTION
-1.1- BRANCH OF STUDY. -1.2-INDUSTRY OVERVIEW. -1.3-BASIC PURPOSE OF PROJECT. -1.4-HISTORICAL INSIGHTS.

2.LITERATURE REVIEW
-2.1-MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND MARKET STRUCTURE IN INDIA. -2.2- STRUCTURE OF INDIAN MARKET. -2.3-MARKET SHARE AND SEGMENTATION IN INDIA. -2.4-DEMAND DRIVERS IN INDIAN MARKET.

3.BAJAJ STUDY

DETAILED

CASE -3.1-MARKET
DEVELOPMENT

STRATEGY. -3.2-MARKETING STRATEGIES FOR THE PRODUCT LINES. -3.3-STRATEGIES AND 6|Page

IMPLEMENTATIONS. -3.4-STRATEGIC ISSUES AND PROBLEMS. -3.5-STRATEGIES FOR THE OVERSEAS MARKET. -3.6-RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PLANS. -3.7-FUTURE PROSPECTIVE. -3.8-RECOMMENDATIONS

4.ANALYSIS -4.1-COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

BETWEEN BAJAJ AND HERO HONDA. -4.2-SWOT ANALYSIS OF BAJAJ(TOWS MATRIX) -4.3-SWOT ANALYSIS OF HERO HONDA.

5.PROBLEMS OR ISSUES OF THE INDUSTRY. (PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION.)

6.HYPOTHESIS

-6.1-HYPOTHESIS
(Y,X1,X2,X3,X4,X5.)

STATED.

7.RESEARCH METHODOLOGY -7.1-INTRODUCTION

TO RESEARCH METHODOLOGY. -7.2-APPROACHES FOR THE RESEARCH.(QUANTITATIVE) -7.3.-MEANING OF FEW TERMS 7|Page

RELATED TO RESEARCH. -7.4-STEPS IN WHICH REGRESSION IS CARRIED OUT.

8.DATA (FINDINGS EXPLANATION tables)

ANALYSIS -8.1-FINDING 1. AND of the -8.2-FINDING 2. -8.3-FINDING 3

-8.4-FINDING 4. -8.5-FINDING 5.

9.RESULTS 10.CONCLUSION -10.1-FUTURE SCOPE.

-10.2-LIMITATION. -10.3-DISCUSSION.

11.BIBLIOGRAPHY 12.ANNEXURE
-12.1-DATA -12.2-REGRESSION CHARTS. -12.3-CO RELATION CHARTS.

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INTRODUCTION:Macro (Industry Analysis) of Indian Automobile Industry two wheeler segment. The project deals with the market development ,market structure, demand drivers in the Indian market; formulation of strategies-Indian market strategies, foreign market strategies; problems ;limitations; recommendations; and future scope of the Indian Automobile Industry - BAJAJ LTD. in particular. It also brings forth the industry analysis of the buying behavior of people with respect to the factors that would affect the sales and purchases of the different segments of the two wheeler industry. The branch of management will be to know the Indian market and what are the reasons that affect the strategy formulation of the two wheeler segment. (Strategic Business Management.)
1

India is emerging as one of the worlds fastest growing passenger car markets and second largest two wheeler manufacturer. According to the International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2008 released by United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), India ranks 12th in the list of the worlds top 15 automakers.
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India is on every major global automobile players roadmap, and it isnt hard to see why: India is the second largest two-wheeler market in the world The auto component industry has come of age and now forms an important component of the Indian economy. In recent years, it has grown more impressively, fetch double digit growth. More interestingly, it has captured attention as well as business from leading auto makers of the world. The industry plays a crucial role in the automobile sector.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: Macro (industry analysis) of Indian Automobile Industry two wheeler segment. The project deals with the analysis of the buying behavior of people with respect to the factors that would affect the sale and purchase of the different segments of the two wheeler industry. The branch of study will be to know the Indian market and what are the reasons that affect the prices of the two wheeler segment.

The basic purpose of research is : To know the popularity of a particular two wheeler company in the consumer segment. (Case study of Bajaj Pulsar included.) Analysis of Customer taste and preference for various brands of bikes depending upon the parameters like features , performance, price structure ,foreign competition, innovation, new age technology and most importantly the mileage of the bike. Identifying the factors that help in determining the sale and purchase of the different segments. Identifying the possible areas of improvement, growth opportunities, and threats. (Swot analysis.)
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Historical InsightsThe Britannica Encyclopedia describes a motorcycle as a bicycle or tricycle propelled by an internalcombustion engine (or, less often, by an electric engine). The motors on minibikes, scooters, and mopeds, or motorized velocipedes, are usually air-cooled and range from 25 to 250 cubic cm (1.5 to 15 cubic inches) in displacement; the multiple-cylinder motorcycles have displacements of more than 1,300 cubic cm. 2 The automobile was the reply to the 19th-century dream of self-propelling the horse-drawn carriage. Similarly, the invention of the motorcycle created the self-propelled bicycle. The first commercial design was a three-wheeler built by Edward Butler in Great Britain in 1884. This employed a horizontal single-cylinder gasoline engine mounted between two steer able front wheels and connected by a drive chain to the rear wheel. The 1900s saw the conversion of many bicycles, or pedal cycles by adding small, centrally mounted spark ignition engines. There was then felt the need for reliable constructions. This led to road trial tests and competition between manufacturers. Tourist Trophy (TT) races were held on the Isle of Man in 1907 as reliability or endurance races. Such were the proving ground for many new ideas from early two-stroke-cycle designs to supercharged, multivalve engines mounted on aerodynamic, carbon-fiber reinforced bodywork. -Origin of Motor-Scooters:Edward Butler, an Englishman, built the first motor tricycle in 1884. The first gasoline-engine motorcycle to appear publicly was built by Gottlieb Daimler, of Bad Cannstatt, Germany, in 1885. The first practical engines and motorcycles were designed by the French and Belgians, followed by British, German, Italian, and American makers. 2 The popularity of the vehicle grew, especially after 1910. During World War I the motorcycle was used by all branches of the armed forces in Europe, principally for
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2 2

dispatching. After the war it enjoyed a sport vogue until the Great Depression began in 1929. After World War II a revival of interest in motorcycles lasted into the late 20th century, with the vehicle being used for high-speed touring and sport competitions. The more sophisticated motor scooter originated in Italy soon after World War II, led by manufacture of a 125cubic-centimetre model. Despite strong competition from West Germany, France, Austria, and Britain, the Italian scooters maintained the lead in the diminishing market.

Literature review:Market Development Structure in India:1

and

Market

India is the 2nd largest two-wheeler market in the world with a size of over Rs.100,000 million. Production during the period reached 10.8 million units, entailing a demand ratio of ~72%. In terms of sales and market share the major players of the industry are Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors. Other players include Kinetic Motors, Yamaha Motor and Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI).

Structure of the Indian Market:-

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-1The composition of the industry consists of motorcycles, scooters and mopeds. Over the past decade, there has been a consumer preferential shift from mopeds to scooters and now motorcycles. On account of the shift, the motorcycle segment dominates the two-wheeler industry with a market share of close to 80%. - The motorcycle segment is further sub divided into 3 classes, starting from the entry/economy class (Rs.30,000 Rs.40,000), executive class (Rs.40,000 Rs.50,000) and the premium class (Rs.50,000). The motorcycle segment is primarily led by Hero Honda with a market share of ~59% followed by Bajaj Auto (~18%), HMSI (~9%), TVS Motors (~7%) and Yamaha (~5%).

Market Share and Segmentation in India:2

Two-wheeler segment is one of the most important components of the automobile sector that has undergone significant changes due to shift in policy environment. The two-wheeler industry has been in existence in the country since 1955. It consists of three segments viz. scooters, motorcycles and mopeds. In India there are some MNCs and Indian company dealing in automobile sector.
2

The main key players who are dealing in this sector are Hero Honda, Bajaj, Yamaha, Honda, and TVS. Hero Honda is the biggest player in this sector in India as well as in the world and playing a very important role in two wheeler automobile sector. Hero Honda, Bajaj and TVS are the Indian
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companies and Yamaha & Honda are international automobile brand. Bajaj is the first Indian two wheeler automobile company in the market since 1945 with the name M/s Bacharj trading corporation private limited. In 1959 M/s Bacharj trading corporation private limited change its name as Bajaj Auto Ltd. Bajaj Auto obtains license from the Government of India to manufacture two- and threewheelers vehicles in 1959. Hero Honda Motors Limited was established in 1984, as a joint venture between India's Hero Group (world's largest bicycle manufacturers) and Japan's Honda Motor Company. And created the world's single largest two wheeler company and also one of the most successful joint ventures worldwide. During the 80s, Hero Honda became the first company in India. Over 19 million Hero Honda two wheelers running on Indian roads today. TVS Motors is the third largest company in the twowheeler industry with a market share of 16%. Infect, it is the only Indian company without a foreign collaboration in the two-wheeler industry. When the company opted out of the collaboration with Suzuki in 2002, many believed that TVS was headed towards extinction. But the company proved the doomsayers wrong and came out with a very successful `TVS Victor'. TVS Motors Ltd. originally incorporated in 1982 to manufacture two-wheelers in collaboration with Suzuki Motors of Japan, TVS was one of the leaders in two-wheeler industry. Yamaha Motor Corporation is the auto mobile company of Japan (1953) which works in India since 1955 and providing latest technology in India from last two decades. Yamaha Motor India was incorporated in august 2001 as a 100% subsidiary of Yamaha motor corporation, Japan
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Honda motors of Japan is not a new name in the two wheeler scenario in the country, they were in a tie up with the Fibroids owned Kinetic group. However in the late 90s they parted ways after problems arose over issues like introduction of new models, advertising expenditure, marketing strategies and other related issues. In the mid 80 Honda motors of Japan joined hands with the largest bicycle maker of India the Hero cycles to create Hero Honda which in a couple of decades or so have gone on to become the single largest motorcycle company in the world. Though Honda has come on its own on the Indian market yet it will be providing technological support to Hero Honda for the next ten years. Thus presenting a unique situation in which the company will be in direct competition with the company which it has been associated for nearly two decades. Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India limited, a 100% subsidiary of Honda motor company Japan eventually entered the Indian market with Honda Unicorn in 2004.

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SEGMENTATION OF TWO WHEELER:-

A Two Wheeler Sector Sub-Segmenting in the three Segments: Motorcycle Scooter Mopeds Segment-wise Analysis of Indian Two Wheeler Market:Segment A1 Description share in 2001-02 Scooter 5% with engine capacity less than 75 cc Scooter 5% with engine capacity between 75-125 cc (Scooter) Scooter with engine capacity between 125-250 cc Motorcycle with 12% Share in 2008-2009 0% CAGR 33.99%

A2

10%

32.9%

A3

1%

-27.7%

B1

62%

66%

14.9%

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B2

B3

C1

engine capacity between 75-125 cc Motorcycle with engine capacity between 75-125 cc Motorcycle with engine capacity between 75-125 cc Mopeds

5%

17%

44.8%

1%

1%

5.7%

10% Hero Honda

5%

-2.7%

Financing ratios:Financing ratio Bajaj auto 12 months back Current Drop

2

Tvs motors

58% 50% 8,00bps

71% 59% 1200bps

65% 50% 1500bps

SEGMENTATION OF THE INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY:PREMIUM SEGMENT

2

If we analyze the motorcycle sub-segments then it would be

visible that Bajaj Auto has a significant presence in the premium segment with a market share of ~55% followed by Hero Honda (~22%), TVS Motors (~13%) and HMSI (10%).
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EXECUTIVE SEGMENT
2

Hero Honda dominates this segment with a market share of

~70% followed by Bajaj Auto (20%), HMSI (~6%) and TVS Motors (1%). This segment retrieves higher revenues from the rural areas, which are less dependence on finance; therefore comparatively it is among the best performing segments YTD. ECONOMY SEGMENT
2

This segment is a strong foothold for Bajaj Auto which has a

market share of ~45% followed by Hero Honda (~34%) and TVS Motors (~24%). This is the most competitive segment as all the 3players relatively have a higher presence in the same. But this segment continues to be the worst hit due to the credit unavailability and global slowdown. The industry has shown a CAGR of ~15% from FY04-FY07 on account of finance availability from PSU Banks and private banks like ICICI Bank. But from FY08 FY09 YTD the industry has shown shrinkage as most of the banks reduced their exposure in the auto finance domain given the unfavorable macro economic situation.

Demand Drivers in Indian market:(Reasons for the Increasing Demand And Sales In this Sector.)
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The demand for two-wheelers has been influenced by a number of factors over the past few years. The key demand drivers for the growth of the two-wheeler industry are as follows: Inadequate public transportation system, especially in the semi-urban and rural areas. Increased availability of cheap consumer financing in the past 3-4 years. Increasing availability of fuel-efficient and lowmaintenance models. Increasing urbanizations, which creates a need for personal transportation. Changes in the demographic profile. Difference between two-wheeler and passenger car prices, which makes two-wheelers the entry-level vehicle.
4

--Cost efficiencies contributing to lower production costs

According to a study by KPMG in 2007, India Automotive Study, the labor cost per hour hovers around $20 in UK, USA and Germany. In India, it works out to just $1.60. Due to the huge savings in the labor cost sourcing auto components and finished cars makes a lot of business sense to the auto manufacturers who have global presence. The improved design capabilities and continuous improvement in quality has been possible only because of the availability of skilled manpower like engineers and IT professionals.

-- Rise in Indias Young Working Population

With the rising levels of per capita income of people, the Indian two wheeler market offers a huge potential for Growth. This growth is relevant in the light of the fact that 70 per cent of Indias population is below the age of 35 Years and 150 million people will be added to the working Population in the next five years. The number of women in
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the urban work force is also increasing; this will lead to the Growth of gearless scooters.
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-- Rise of Indias Rural Economy and Growth in Middle Income Households The growth prospects of the Indian rural economy offer a significant opportunity for the motorcycle industry in India. The penetration of motorcycles amongst rural households with income levels greater than US$ 2,200 per annum has already increased to over 50 per cent. The current target Segment for two wheelers, i.e., households belonging to the Income category of US$ 2,20012,000 is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10 per cent.
4

-- Greater Affordability of Vehicles

The growth in two-wheeler sales in India has been driven by an increase in affordability of these vehicles. An analysis of the price trends indicates that prices have more or less stagnated in the past. This has been part of the marketing strategy adopted by the manufacturers to gain volume, as well as conscious efforts adopted to bring down costs. The operating expenses of leading manufacturers have declined by around 15 per cent in the last five years. With greater avenues of financing, the customers capacity to own a two wheeler has improved.

-- Rapid Product Introduction and Shorter Product Life Cycle

The last five years have witnessed a sharp increase in new product launches in the two-wheeler industry. It is estimated that close to 50 new products have been launched by manufacturers during this period, filling up all price points and targeted at various consumer segments.
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--Inadequate Public Transport Systems

In most Urban Areas the economic boom witnessed in the country and the increased migration to urban areas have increased the traffic congestion in Indian cities and worsened the existing infrastructure bottlenecks. Inadequate urban planning has meant that transport systems have not kept pace with the economic boom and the growing urban population. This has increased the dependence on personal modes of transport and the two wheelers market has benefited from this infrastructure gap.
4

---Favorable Government Policies for the auto sector

Apart from a healthy growing economy, Indian auto industry has a lot to thank the government for the amazing growth rates. The Indian government has introduced several industry specific programs.

The Indian Auto Policy of 2002, introduced measures like low entry barriers and investment incentives by the local state governments. To encourage in-house research and development activities, Government has introduced policies that allow weighted tax deduction up to 150%.
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Case study:- Market Development Strategy by BAJAJ ltd:Graduating Customers from the 100cc to Higher Segments
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There are several reasons why Bajaj should concentrate on its core segment, i.e. greater than 125cc segment. With the introduction of DTS-i and DTS-Fi technology, Bajaj Auto Limited has led the way in pioneering technology along with style. The Profitability Pyramid in Exhibit 4 shows that the margin is very low in the sub-125cc segment but volumes are high. BAL wants to shift users from 100, 115cc segment to 125cc and higher. Thus Bajaj not only wants to play on the margins but also wants to increase the market share of 125cc bikes. With its recent launch of XCD 125cc, it has brought in competition for its own 100cc model, Platina by delivering a bike that is better in all respects (including fuel efficiency).

Exhibit 4. Profitability Pyramid Thus, we conclude that Bajaj wants to make a slow departure from 100cc segment. It has already stopped production of the Discover 125 and will continue production of the Platina until the demand for the 100cc remains. It has priced the XCD between the Platina and the Discover and in the future, would ideally wish to project the XCD 125 as its base model. Focus on Gearless Scooters The market share of gearless scooters is increasing at a healthy rate. Bajaj is virtually absent in this range that caters to the needs of women and families. Presently Honda, Hero Honda and TVS are big players in this segment. Entry into Four Wheeler Segment Bajaj has entered into a joint venture with Renault-Nissan in the development of a small car priced at $3000 4. This is a
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significant move because it directly competes with Tata NANO. Bajaj has also displayed its small car prototype in the recently held auto expo. It promises double the mileage as compared to any car in the economy segment and is also considering the option of introducing Diesel and LPG variants. The four wheeler segment will also be able to hedge any risk that might arise because of the two wheeler industry and would profit from retaining consumers switching from two wheelers. Scaling Up Service Centers BAJAJ needs to scale up its service centers both in numbers and in capacity. Keeping in line with its growth target for the next 5 years, its service centers should not only cater to two wheelers but should also be upgraded to cater to the needs of four wheelers that Bajaj plans to launch. Focus on Easy Credit Lending In the present economical crisis, Bajaj can utilize its subsidiary, Bajaj insurance in coming up with schemes that will help consumers buy two wheelers on friendly terms. Investment in Research and Development We have already identified that the core competency of Bajaj is its R&D and investment in technology. In order to increase market share and become the market leader, Bajaj needs to invest heavily in R&D. They have to introduce efficient and powerful bikes as well as develop alternate energy vehicles.

Focus on Exports and Global Market Bajaj Electricals has already setup a manufacturing unit in China. As set up cost and export costs are extremely cheap in China, we recommend the same strategy for BAL. By doing so, Bajaj can utilize low cost exports. Bajaj is not yet a global name. Considering the fact that it is one of the oldest two wheeler companies and is doing very well in India, it should definitely target global markets. A
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movement is seen in this direction since it is focusing on the British cult bike company, Triumph as its target takeover. Triumph, given its niche positioning, cult brand image and strong product line-up, is an attractive target for the Pune based firm. Disbanding of Dedicated Sales Force for each Product Because of the differentiation in the products that Bajaj currently possesses and is expected to launch in the near future we recommend Bajaj to discontinue its current strategy of dedicated sales force for each product line. This would eventually achieve synergies in selling thereby leading to a reduction in costs.

MARKETING STRATEGIES OF BAJAJ LTD.:( OF THE VARIOUS PRODUCT LINES)

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Marketing Strategies:The focus of BAJAJ AUTO LTD.(BAL) off late has been on providing the best of the class models at competitive prices. Most of the Bajaj models come loaded with the latest features within the price band acceptable by the market. BAL has been the pioneer in stretching competition into providing latest features in the price segment by updating the low price bikes with the latest features like disk-brakes, anti-skid technology and dual suspension, etc. BAJAJ adopted different marketing strategies for different models, few of them are discussed below: Kawasaki 4S - First attempt by Bajaj to make a mark in the motorcycle segment. The target customer was the father in the family but the target audience of the commercial was the son in the family. The time at which Kawasaki 4S was launched Hero Honda was the market leader in fuel-efficient bikes and Yamaha in the performance bikes.

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The commercial of Kawasaki 4S had the punch line "Kyun Hero" means "now what hero" which reflected the aggressiveness in the marketing front by the company. Boxer - It took the reins from where the Kawasaki 4S left. Target was the rural population and the price sensitive customer. Boxer marketed as a value for money bike with great mileage. Larger wheelbase, high ground clearance and high mileage were the selling factors and it was in direct competition to Hero Honda Dawn and Suzuki MX100. Caliber - The focus for the Caliber 115 was youth. And though Bajaj made the bike look bigger and feel more powerful than its predecessor (characteristics that will attract the average, 25-plus, executive segment bike buyer), its approach towards advertising is even more radically different this time around. Bajaj gave the mandate for the ad campaign to Lowe, picking them from the clique of three agencies that do promos for the company (the other two being Leo Burnett and O&M). Going by the initial market response, the campaign was clearly a hit in the 5-10 years age bracket. So, the teaser campaign and the emphasis on the Caliber 115 being a `Hoodibabaa' bike placed it as a trendy motorcycle for the college-goers and the 25 plus executives both at the same time. Pulsar - Pulsar was launched in direct competition to the Hero Honda's 'CBZ' model in 150 cc plus segment. The campaign bared innovative punch line of "Definitely Male" positioning Pulsar to be a masculine-looking model with an appeal to the performance sensitive customers. The Pulsar went one step ahead of Hero Honda's 'CBZ' and launched a twin variant of Pulsar with the 180 cc model. The model was a great success and has already crossed 1 million mark in sales. Discover - The same DTSI technology of Pulsar extended to 125 cc Discover was a great success. With this, Bajaj could realize its success riding on the back of technological
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innovation rather than the joint venture way followed by competitors to gain market share.
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Strategies & Implementation by BAJAJ LTD:FMCG Business Model BAJAJ now is taking a leaf out of the FMCG business model to take the company to greater heights. Bajaj has kicked off a project to completely restructure the company's retail network and create multiple sales channels. Over the next few months, the company will set-up separate sales channels for every segment of its business and consumers. Bajaj Auto's entire product portfolio, from the entry-level to the premium, is being sold by the same dealers. The restructuring will involve separate dealer networks catering to the urban and rural markets as well as its three-wheeler and premium bikes segments. Bajaj Auto also plans to set-up an independent network of dealers for the rural areas. The needs of financing, selling, distribution and even after-sales service are completely different in the rural areas and do not makes sense for city dealers to control this. The company also plans to set-up exclusive dealerships for its three-wheeler products instead of having them sold through an estimated 300 of its existing dealers.
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Other Strategic Issues OR Problems:-

Cash is strength: Bajaj Auto has been sitting on a cash

pile for over five years now. Over the next couple of years, competition in the two-wheeler market is set to intensify. TVS Motors and Hero Honda are on a product expansion binge. To fight this battle and retain its hard-earned market share in the motorcycle segment, Bajaj Auto will need its cash muscle. A look at its own story over the past five years provides valuable insight.
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Delisting worry: What is worrying is that there is an idea

to delist the investment company (also an indirect indication that it would be listed initially). This would be closing the valve of equitable ownership distribution. There is a hint of a buyback of shares of the investment company as this is the only way it can be delisted. The company would not be short of cash to put through such a buyback. Factors such as low valuation, low trading interest and the need to provide shareholders may be cited as plausible reasons for the buyback.

Stake for Kawasaki: Bajaj Auto's attempt to vest the

surplus cash in a separate company may be a prelude to offering a stake to Kawasaki of Japan in the equity of the automobile company. The latter has been playing an increasingly active role in Bajaj's recent models, and its brand name is also more visible in Bajaj bikes than in the past.

Better value proposition: Shareholder interests may

be better served if the cash is retained to pursue growth in a tough market. This would also obviate the need to fork-out fancy sums as stamp duty to the government for the demerger. A combination of a large one-time dividend and a regular buyback program through the tender route may offer better value. A strategic stake for Kawasaki would only positively influence the stock's valuation.
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Strategies for the Overseas Markets:-

Bajaj Auto looks at external markets primarily with three strategies: 1) A market where all BAJAJ need to do is distribute through CKD or CBU routes. 2) Markets where BAJAJ need to create new products.
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3) Markets where BAJAJ need to enter with existing products and probably with a good distributor or a production facility or a joint venture. Earlier, most of the products that Bajaj exported were scooters and some motorcycles. However, in its target markets, like in India, the shift was towards motorcycles. With the expansion in Bajaj's own range to almost five-six platforms of motorcycles, it had a better offering to export, also the reason for its stronger showing. For the last fiscal, 60 per cent of its exports were two-wheelers and the rest three-wheelers. Of the two-wheeler exports, close to 90 per cent were motorcycles. Bajaj has identified certain key markets, which hold potential. Its first overseas office established at the Jebel Ali free trade zone has been the focal point for exports to middle Africa and the Saharan nations. Egypt and Iran also continue to be strong markets for Bajaj. The other market, which would be a focus area, is South America, where the company feels it is fairly well represented in most countries, except in Brazil, the largest market. The company recently participated in a large auto exhibition in Brazil and found good consumer acceptance to products like Pulsar and Wind 125. The other focus area is the ASEAN nations, which constitute the third biggest consumer of two-wheelers. The biggest among them is Indonesia, where Bajaj distributors are looking to introduce eco-friendly four-stroke auto rickshaws. But two-wheeler market requires great deal of effort from BAL. Everybody is there with Honda leading the show. There's Suzuki, Kawasaki and some Korean and Chinese models. BAL should look at the right product mix for twowheelers. Bajaj's Pulsar model has taken off well there. It also wants to develop a new step-through model for the Indonesian market, but for now it will create a base there with its motorcycle models.

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Bajaj has also made a beginning by selling bikes in the Philippines branded in the name of its technical partner, Kawasaki. The two signed an MoU in February. Kawasaki, a large multiproduct conglomerate, only makes high-end bikes and does not have sub-200cc models. Kawasaki is marketing the new model, Wind 125, developed by both companies, in the Philippines. The Bajaj-developed models, Caliber and Byk, which is a fuel-efficient bike, are also being distributed by Kawasaki. This is a good beginning strategically for Kawasaki to evince interest in Bajaj products for markets which can still buy less than 150 cc.
10

RESEARCH AND DEVEOPMENT PLANS:-

Bajaj Auto has a huge, extensive and very well-equipped Research and Development wing geared to meet two critical organizational goals: development of exciting new products that anticipate and meet emerging customer needs in India and abroad, and development of eco-friendly automobile technologies. While the manpower strength of the R&D represents a crosssection of in-depth design and engineering expertise, the company has also been investing heavily in the latest, sophisticated technologies to scale down product development lifecycles and enhance testing capabilities. Bajaj Auto R&D also enjoys access to the specialized expertise of leading international design and automobile engineering companies working in specific areas. Based on their own brand of globalization, they have built their distribution network over 60 countries worldwide and multiplied the exports from 1% of total turnover in Fiscal 1989-90 to over 5% in Fiscal 1996-97. The countries where their products have a large market are USA, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Iran and Egypt. Bajaj leads Colombia with 65% of the scooter market, in Uruguay with 30% of the motorcycle market and in Bangladesh with 95% of the threewheeler market.
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Several new models are being developed specifically for global markets and with these the company will progressively endeavor to establish its presence in Europe too.

10

The Future Prospective:-

Although the avalanche of motorcycles offered Indian consumers a wide variety of models to choose from, it also resulted in increased pressure on the companies to concentrate on cost-cuts, technology enhancements and upgradations and styling. Their margins came under pressure as marketing costs escalated. The companies were forced to reduce prices and offer discounts to survive the competition. Moreover, analysts were skeptical about the segment's ability to maintain the growth rate in the years to come. One of the major assumptions underlying the motorcycles rush was that if the market was considerably large and was growing at a constant pace, there was room for a profitable existence for all brands. In 2001, there were over 30 motorcycle brands in the market. However, with the top five brands accounting for more than 60% of the market, only 40% of the market was available for all other new brands put together. Despite the launch of more vehicles, the survival prospects of many of the individual brands were deemed to be rather bleak. Further, the growth in the motorcycle segment was dependant on continuing favorable market conditions. Analysts claimed that to sustain this growth rate, the segment would have to completely cannibalize the market for scooters and a considerable part of the market for scooterettes and mopeds. Considering the fast growing scooterettes segment, with high demand from female customers, followed by the moderately growing moped segment and the restructuring in
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the scooter segment with major national and foreign players reinforcing their presence, it was unlikely that the entire growth in the two-wheeler sector would be due to motorcycles. Analysts also commented that as the two-wheeler industry had grown steadily for eight years, stages in the product life cycle would apply to the field sooner, rather than later and the decline stage would invariably come some day. There was little differentiation between the brands being launched apart from styling as most companies had introduced their four-stroke vehicles. With the failure of the joint ventures, the expected introduction of cheaper Chinese brands, stringent emission norms and threat from major international players, the survival of indigenous brands looked uncertain. Constrained with the ruling price levels in the market place, limited infrastructure and lack of technological innovations when compared to their foreign counterparts, whether the Indian companies would succeed in generating the kind of volumes needed to sustain in the competitive motorcycle market, remains to be seen.
10

Recommendations:-

Focus on High Margin Products: Around 50% of the twowheeler consumers buy high quality products (products of executive and premium segment motorcycles). Margins on these products are higher. BAL should adopt a deliberate strategy of focusing on executive and premium segment motorcycles and threewheelers, and is reducing its dependence on lower-end of motorcycles and scooters segment. High margin products - Pulsar, Discover, Threewheelers, Avenger. Low margin products - Platina, Scooters, Mopeds. Now with increasing competition in the economy segment and limited scope from cost saving measures, it is believed this strategy of focusing on higher margin products would enable the company in retaining its operating margins.
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Below are other useful recommendations: Company should keep focusing on the fast growing motorcycle segment. In view of the new threat posed by Honda Motors in the scooter segment, the company needs to review its products line-up and launch new products to cater the changed demand. The company needs to take a look at its ungeared scooters offerings and need to adapt to the latest trends. The company needs to tap the export market more efficiently as there is a huge potential to make India as the world's two-wheelers production base. For this, it needs to look for joint ventures abroad. It needs to target the young age group more effectively as this group is extremely trend savvy. The advertising should have a fresh look and the product should live up to the Gen-X's expectations.
11

ANALYSIS BETWEEN TWO BIG COMPANIES I.E. HERO HONDA AND BAJAJ:11

Comparative Analysis of Bajaj and Hero Honda:In India, a two-wheeler is used as a personal/family vehicle or a goods carrier, whereas it is confined to sports/racing (heavy motorcycles) or short distance shopping (mopeds). In order to assess the marketing strategies of two wheeler segment in automobile industry of Bajaj and Hero Honda an attempt has been made to understand the satisfaction level of the customers toward dealer services depending on the profile, i.e. customer income, demographics such as age, gender, occupation, etc.
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The players will have to compete on various fronts i.e. pricing, technology, product design, productivity, after sale service, marketing and distribution. In the short term, market shares of individual manufacturers are going to be sensitive to capacity, product acceptance, pricing and competitive pressures from other manufacturers. All the three segments, motorcycles, scooters and mopeds have witnessed capacity additions in the last one-year and it will continue in the upcoming period. Over this period, only the motorcycle segment is expected witness higher demand vis--vis supply, while the scooters and mopeds supply will outstrip demand. As incomes grow and people feel the need to own a private means of transport, sales of two-wheelers will rise. Penetration is expected to increase to approximately to more than 25% by 2009. While buying a motorcycle economy is the main consideration in form of maintenance cost, fuel efficiency--- Hero Honda is considered to be most fuel-efficient bike on India road.(publics opinion) A Study on Bajaj and Hero Honda tells about the objective of the study in a nutshell. To identify and analyze the marketing strategies of automobile industry in two wheeler segment of: - Bajaj Auto AND Hero honda To assess a comparative analysis of the above 2 companies To study the customer satisfaction level toward dealer services. To study the preference / perception of the customers toward the two-wheeler brand satisfaction.

Firstly BAJAJ AUTO:

Broader production base: The Company should be poised to drop its costs and increase its competitive

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strength in the market place so that it may be able to broader its production bases. Low per capita use: The per capita consumption Bajaj auto products in general and Bajaj Caliber in particulars in India is not so high as in China and Japan. This notwithstanding the fat that the Company has been able to achieve a mixed bag of success and failures recently. The fact remains that this disparity is expected over the coming years especially with prices expected to drop in the coming year. It should increase its number of authorized dealers and service centers in India. Global thrust: It can thrust to emerge as a global player of respect for which it is necessary to export in bigger quantities than it has done in the past. This will require big capacities. The media Revolution, Exposure to foreign brands and raising incomes will promoted greater consumer awareness. The market for consumer goods will continue to grow and rural demand is expected to be particularly strong as a result of several years of comparative agricultural prosperity. Therefore the company should increase its production capacity and capitalize on its resource-mobilizing capabilities to this end only.

Now HERO HONDA:

The company should supply products of highest quality at restorable prices for customers satisfaction and for the benefit of the society in general. The company should ensure timely supply. The company should have a better work culture among all employees and it should generate and sustain the concretion among all employees and it should generate and sustain the concretion among all employees through systems education and training.

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The company has to increase its capacity. This shall cater to the demand for the future. The company shall be spending Rs.100 Cr this year towards this end. For expansion a feasibility study should be conducted on the setting up of a new plant. They should also give a thought to venture into other segments of two wheelers.

Conclusion: The two-wheelers market has had a perceptible shift from a buyers market to a sellers market with a variety of choices. Players will have to compete on various fronts viz pricing, technology, product design, productivity, after sale service, marketing and distribution. In the short term, market shares of individual manufacturers are going to be sensitive to capacity, product acceptance, pricing and competitive pressures from other manufacturers. All the three segments, motorcycles, scooters and mopeds have witnessed capacity additions in the last one-year and it will continue in the upcoming period. Over this period, only the motorcycle segment is expected witness higher demand vis--vis supply, while the scooters and mopeds supply will outstrip demand. As incomes grow and people feel the need to own a private means of transport, sales of two-wheelers will rise. Penetration is expected to increase to approximately to more than 25% by 2009. While buying a motorcycle economy is the main consideration in form of maintenance cost, fuel efficiency. Hero Honda is considered to be most fuel-efficient bike on India road.

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12

SWOT ANALYSIS OF INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY:CASE 1. Tows Matrix for BAL Internal Factors Strengths Weaknesses Can use the existing R&D Must employ the cash in capabilities for new production and product models. capabilities to match competitors Can use Kawasaki's and for continuous export Opportunities distribution networks growth. internationally. Can invest and grow the life style segments. Threats Increase the customer Invest in building world class centric initiatives and bikes to sustain the international command more customer markets independently in the loyalty. coming years like WIND 125. Improve the efficiency of the financing and the insurance arm. External Factors
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S.W.O.T ANALYSIS OF BAJAJ :-

Invest in new product platforms. Actively market electric range internationally. SWOT threats. The SWOT Analysis tool can be used in identifying an organization's strengths (S) and weaknesses (W), and examining the opportunities (O) and threats (T) it is facing. The outcome from a SWOT Analysis enables organizations to focus on strengths, minimize weaknesses, address threats, and take the greatest possible advantage of opportunities available. Analysis is a tool used for understanding an

organization's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and

Strengths:
Our members value the professional designation. We have a lower course fee structure than similar programs. We provide good customer service. Our instructors are highly-regarded in the profession. We have a small staff and low overhead.

Weaknesses:
We are slow to make decisions and adapt to changes that affect the profession.

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The professional designation is rarely included as a condition of employment. We are overly dependent on key volunteers who developed and teach our certification courses. We do not have the resources to research the market and promote the designation.

Opportunities:
Our business sector is expanding, with many future opportunities for success ; Our local council wants to encourage local businesses with work where possible ; Our competitors may be slow to adopt new technologies.

Threats:
Will developments in technology change this market beyond our ability to adapt? A small change in focus of a large competitor might wipe out any market position we achieve.

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CASE 2. SWOT ANALYSIS OF HERO HONDA:-

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Hero Honda is a world leader because of its excellent manpower, proven management, extensive dealer network, efficient supply chain and world-class products with cutting edge technology from Honda Motor Company, Japan. The teamwork and commitment are manifested in the highest level of customer satisfaction, and this goes a long way towards reinforcing its leadership status. HERO HONDA KARIZMA Hero Honda Karizma was the first real sports bike in India. The bike addresses to those who have a passion for speed and styling and head-turning looks. It has 17 ps power thrust and picks up 0-60 in 3.8 heart-stopping seconds. The bike is based on power and styling. Disc breaks and Mag wheels makes Karizma the safest jet on the road. Company Stroke Maximum Power Displacement Hero Honda Motors India Ltd. 4-Stroke 16.8 bhp @ 7000 rpm 232 cc. Striking Features: 1 Style 2 Sporty position of the seat. 3 It stands on its feet even at speeds reaching up to 130 kmph. 4 Fuel Efficiency. S.W.O.T. ANALYSIS OF HERO HONDA -KARIZMA STRENGTH: It has a good speed and sporty look. Karizma is the First bike in India launched under Sports Bike Segment. Loyal Customer Base: In the past four years, Karizma has been successful in building up a good and loyal base among its customers.
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 After Sales Service: Till today, customers are satisfied with the after sales service provided by Hero Honda for this particular product. Refinement, comfort, great handling and that muchsought-after big bike feel are all available on the Karizma. Brand Recall: the name Karizma itself is a metaphor to its success. The brand Karizma has given a good platform to this product in the Sports Bike Segment. WEAKNESS: High Maintenance: The maintenance of Karizma is high as compared to its biggest competitor Bajaj Pulsar 200cc and 220cc. Fuel Efficiency: The pulsar 200cc offers an impressive mileage of 38.3kpl in city and 42.4kpl in highway against the Karizma offers only 30kpl in city and a decent figure of 45kpl in highway. Less Promotion: the promotions and ads of Karizma are very less as compared to its competitors. OPPORTUNITIES: If Hero Honda comes up with the idea of changing some features of Karizma, like self canceling indicators, soft touch handle bar and digital speedometer, it will help them to boost up the sales of Karizma. If they are able to improvise the fuel efficiency of Karizma, it will be a golden opportunity to take over the market. THREATS: The major threat faced by Hero Honda Karizma is from
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Bajaj Pulsar, who has always been the market leader in the 150 plus segment with 60% market share. Karizmas strong competitors Bajaj and TVS, in 150 cc plus segment, already posses certain features like self-controlling indicators, soft touch handle bar which Karizma lacks.

13

PROBLEMS OR ISSUES IDENTIFICATION:13

ACCORDING TO INDUSTRY SOURCES, THE ISSUES FACED BY THE INDUSTRY ARE:Despite the high growth achieved in the past and the high potential in the future, the two-wheelers market faces some challenges. -- Rising Customer Expectations The growth witnessed by the Indian two wheeler industry has attracted a number of new entrants to the market and it is expected that the Indian industry will become more competitive in the future. The plethora of products introduced in the past has also raised customer expectations
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with respect to reliability, styling, performance and economy. -- Environmental and Safety Concerns The increasing demand for two wheelers will need to be managed to address issues relating to overcrowding of roads. Another problem is the insufficient infrastructure for inspection to ensure adherence to emission norms. As the industry grows, it is important to regulate the sale of used two wheelers in a more organized manner for which a mechanism needs to be evolved. Unregulated sale of two wheelers, especially in the rural areas, are likely to create issues related to emissions and safety of vehicles. -- Creation of Distribution Infrastructure Leading companies need to ensure that on one hand they build adequate infrastructure in terms of dealerships and servicing stations in the urban areas and on the other ensure that their distribution infrastructure also reaches the rural areas.

Nurturing manpower:Manpower and human resources has always been a key growth driver in any industry including the automobile industry. Though India has a vast pool of talented and skilled professionals, the country needs initiatives and support to treasure these resources to excel in all arenas of the industries. Automobile industry is no exception and highly skilled manpower will further become the most reliable source of competitive advantage across the global as well as Indian automobile industry. Fuel Technology

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Technology is significant and needed to ignite the growth of auto industry. Whether its a two-wheeler or a car, technology drives the growth. The challenge of alternative fuel technology ensures a brighter vision of the auto industry in the country. The increasing environmental pollution has become a concern for manufacturers and all associated with the industry. All of them are struggling hard to come up with a holistic and integrated approach to reduce carbon dioxide emission.

Road infrastructure:One of the major problems faced by this sector is the poor condition of the roads. The road infrastructure is not properly developed. The condition of the highways is not up to the mark. A large number of the roads are single lane roads built almost 50 years ago. They hardly match the rapid pace at which the automobile industry is developing. Moreover, they are mostly used by bullock carts. It is believed that the condition of the roads would worsen with the introduction of bigger and increasing number of vehicles. Repair work is expected to incur expenses up to$30 billion. The privatization of the road infrastructure is not enough to solve the problem which has attained large proportions.

HYPOTHESIS:Hypothesis: Statistical Hypothesis is a statement or assertion about a statistical population or the values of its parameters. There are 2 types of Hypothesis-Simple and Composite. - Simple Hypothesis is a statistical hypothesis which specifies the population completely (i.e. the probability distribution and all parameters known).
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- Composite Hypothesis is a statistical hypothesis which does not specify the population completely (i.e. either the form of probability distribution or some parameters remain unknown). TEST OF HYPOTHESIS (or Test of SIGNIFICANCE) is a procedure which specifies a set of rules for decision whether to accept or reject the hypothesis under consideration (null hypothesis). Null Hypothesis is a statistical hypothesis which is set up (i.e. assumed) and whose validity is tested for possible rejection on the basis of sample observations. It is denoted by H0 and tested against alternatives. In my analysis the null hypothesis is that the factor being analyzed has does not have a significant effect on the AUTOMOBILE Industry. Alternative Hypothesis is a statistical hypothesis which differs from the null hypothesis. It is denoted by H1. The alternate hypothesis is not tested, but its acceptance depends on rejection of the null hypothesis.

Hypothesis Stated:Productivity(y); Domestic Import Sales(x1); Export Quantity(x2); Quantity(x3);Petrol

Prices(x4);length Of Roads(x5).

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1)

H01- Domestic sales of two wheeler industry dont

significantly depend on the production of two wheeler industry. H11Domestic sales of two wheeler industry does

significantly depend on the production of two wheeler industry.

2)

H02- Exports quantity of two wheeler industry doesnt

significantly depend on the production of two wheeler industry. H12Exports quantity of two wheeler industry does

significantly depend on the production of two wheeler industry.

3) H03- Imports quantity of two wheeler industry doesnt significantly depend on the production of two wheeler industry. H13Imports quantity of two wheeler industry does

significantly depend on the production of two wheeler industry. 4) H04-Petrol prices dont significantly depend on the production of two wheeler industry.

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H14-petrol prices significantly depend upon the production of two wheeler industry. 5) H05-Length of the roads doesnt significantly depend upon the production of two wheeler industry. H15-length of the roads significantly depends upon the production of the two wheeler industry.

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:

Research can be defined as a scientific and systematic research for pertinent information on a specific topic. The construction of a research instrument is the most important aspect as it determines the nature and quality of the information. The choice of these sources or methods of data collection primarily depends upon the purpose of collecting information, type of information collected, and the resources that were available.

APPROACHES FOR RESEARCH:

Quantitative Approach:

Quantitative approach

involves the generation of data in quantitative form which can be subjected to rigorous quantitative analysis in a formal and rigid fashion. The objective of quantitative research is to develop and employ mathematical models, theories and/or hypotheses pertaining to phenomena. Quantitative research is used widely in social sciences such as psychology, sociology, anthropology, and political science. Research in mathematical sciences such as physics is also 'quantitative'
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by definition, though this use of the term differs in context. In the social sciences, the term relates to empirical methods, originating in both philosophical positivism and the history of statistics, which contrast qualitative research methods. Qualitative Approach: Qualitative approach to research is concerned with subjective assessment of attitudes, opinions and behavior. Research in such a situation is a function of researchers insights and impressions.16 such an approach to research generates results either in non-quantitative form or in the form which are not subjected to rigorous quantitative analysis. Generally, the techniques of focus group interviews, projective techniques and depth interviews are used.

MEANING OF FEW TERMS RELATED TO RESEARCH:

Dependent Variable: independent variable; It is a variable in a logical or "if f(x)=y, y is the dependent mathematical expression whose value depends on the variable". It is what is measured in the experiment and what is affected during the experiment. 19

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Independent typically the

Variable: variable

The

independent the

variable value

is

representing

being

manipulated or changed.19 Examples: If one were to measure the influence of different

quantities of fertilizer on plant growth, the independent variable would be the amount of fertilizer used (the changing factor of the experiment). The dependent variables would be the growth in height and/or mass of the plant (the factors that are influenced in the experiment) and the controlled variables would be the type of plant, the type of fertilizer, the amount of sunlight the plant gets, the size of the pots, etc. (the factors that would otherwise influence the dependent variable if they were not controlled). In measuring the acceleration of a vehicle, time is variable. This is because when taking

usually the independent variable, while speed is the dependent measurements, times are usually predetermined, and the resulting speed of the vehicle is recorded at those times. As far as the experiment is concerned, the speed is dependent on the time. Since the decision is made to measure the speed at certain times, time is the independent variable. Sample: In statistics, a sample is a subset of a population. The totality of statistical information on a particular character, from all members covered by an enquiry, is called
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population or universe; e.g. population of income, population of registered factories in West Bengal, etc. The sample is the selected part of the population and is used to throw light on the population characteristics This process of collecting information from a sample is referred to as sampling. The best way to avoid a biased or unrepresentative sample is to select a random sample, also known as a probability sample. A random sample is defined as a sample where the probability that any individual member from the population being selected as part of the sample is exactly the same as any other individual member of the population. Several types of random samples are simple random samples, systematic samples, stratified random samples, and cluster random samples. It is collected via primary and secondary data sources. Secondary Data: Secondary data is data collected by someone other than the user. Common sources of secondary data for social science include censuses, surveys, organizational records and data collected through qualitative methodologies or qualitative research. Secondary data analysis saves time that would otherwise be spent collecting data and, particularly in the case of quantitative data, provides larger and higher-quality

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databases than would be unfeasible for any individual researcher to collect on their own. In addition to that, analysts of social and economic change consider secondary data essential, since it is impossible to conduct a new survey that can adequately capture past change and/or developments. Regression: It is the description of the nature of the relationship between two or more variables; it is concerned with the problem of describing or estimating the value of the dependent variable on the basis of one or more independent variables. Thus regression is a statistical measure that attempts to determine the strength of the relationship between one dependent variable (usually denoted by Y) and a series of other changing variables (known as independent variables). The two basic types of regression are linear regression and multiple regressions. Linear regression uses one independent variable to explain and/or predict the outcome of Y, while multiple regressions use two or more independent variables to predict the outcome. The general form of each type of regression is:

Linear Regression: Y = a + bX + u

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Multiple Regression: Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + B3X3 + ... + BtXt + u Y= the variable that we are trying to predict Where: X= the variable that we are using to predict Y a= the intercept b= the slope u= the regression residual. In multiple regressions, the separate variables are

differentiated by using subscripted numbers. Regression takes a group of random variables, thought to be predicting Y, and tries to find a mathematical relationship between them. This relationship is typically in the form of a straight line (linear regression) that best approximates all the individual data points. Regression is often used to determine how many specific factors such as the price of a commodity, interest rates, particular industries or sectors influence the price movement of an asset. P-Value: The probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis is called power of the test; therefore, power is the probability of drawing a correct conclusion by the test, when the null hypothesis is false. For a specified value of the parameter

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consistent with the alternative hypothesis, Power =1(probability of type 2 error). The lower the p-value, the less likely the result is if the null hypothesis is true, and more significant the result is, in the sense of statistical significance. One often accepts the alternative hypothesis, (i.e. rejects a null hypothesis) if the p-value is less than 0.05 or 0.01, corresponding to a 5% or 1% chance respectively of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true (Type 1 error). For the purpose of analysis in this project y is the Total Sales and x is the variable for the values of factors being analyzed and if the P-value is greater than 5% (.05) the alternate hypothesis stands rejected. T-Stat: A function of sample observations (i.e. statistics) whos computed value determines the final decision regarding acceptance or rejection of H0 is called test statistics. The appropriate test statistics has to be chosen very carefully and knowledge of its sampling distribution under H0 i.e. when the null hypothesis is true, is essential in framing the decision rules. If the value of the test statistics falls in the critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected. Critical region is the set of the test statistic which leads to rejection of the null hypothesis.

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LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE The maximum probability with which a true null hypothesis is rejected is known as the level of significance of the test, and is denoted by .In framing decision rules, the level of significance is arbitrarily chosen in advance depending on the consequences of a statistical decision. Customarily 5% or 1% level of significance is taken. I have taken 5 %( 0.05) as the level of significance. T Statistics (t-stat) = (Co-efficient of x)/ (Standard Error). If the absolute value is higher than the value in ttable for the required level of significance and degree of freedom then we can reject the null hypothesis; where, Degree of freedom= (Number of total observations) R Square: value of Correlation is used to show how strongly the another variable. It represents the linear

movement in value of one variable is related to movement in relationship between the two variables (given by multiple R). If the correlation coefficient is squared, then the resulting value r2 (the coefficient of determination) will represent the proportion of common variation in the two variables. i.e., the strength or magnitude of the relationship. Significance Of CORRELATION: The significance level calculated for each correlation is a primary source of information about the reliability of the correlation. The significance of a correlation coefficient of a particular magnitude will change depending on the size of the sample
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from which it was computed. The test of significance is based on the assumption that the distribution of the residual values (i.e., the deviations from the regression line) for the dependent variable y follows the normal distribution, and that the variability of the residual values is the same for all values of the independent variable x. The R Square determines whether there is a Strong relationship between the 2 variables x and y(value very close to 1)or a moderate relationship between x and y(value greater than but close to 0.5) or a weak relationship between x and y(value less than 0.5) For the purpose of my analysis, a R Square value of greater than equal to 98% will be considered to be very strongly related, between 80% to 98% will be interpreted as strongly related, and 50% to n80% as moderately related, below 50% will be interpreted as weakly related or not related(for values below 20%). Adjusted R Square: The Adjusted R_Square value is an attempt to correct this shortcoming by adjusting both the numerator and the denominator by their respective degrees of freedom. Unlike the R_Square, the Adjusted R_Square can decline in value if the contribution to the explained deviation by the additional variable is less than the impact on the degrees of freedom. This means that the Adjusted R_Square will react to
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alternative equations for the same dependent variable in a manner similar to the Standard Error of the Estimate; i.e., the equation with the smallest Standard Error of the Estimate will most likely also have the highest Adjusted R_Square.

Confidence level - Statistical measure of the number of times out of 100 that test results can be expected to be within a specified range. For example, a confidence level of 95% means that the result of an action will probably meet expectations 95% of the time. Most analyses of variance or correlation confidence. are described in terms of some level of

STEPS IN WHICH REGRESSION IS CONDUCTED: 1. The dependent variable is identified after the topic of research is finalized. This becomes the main fulcrum of the research. 2. Data is collected from the primary and secondary sources keeping in mind the factors of the dependent variable of a specific period of time for e.g., 10 years to 15 years.

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3. The dependent variables are collectively termed under Y and the independent variables all under X1, X2, X3 Xn. it should be done in Microsoft excel (2003 or 2007) 4. Then by using Tools and then Data Analysis we select Regression and a Regression Analysis is done by using Microsoft Excel program.

Data Analysis:- (explanation to the tables) FINDING 1:Annexure Table 1: Regression analysis of production of two wheeler automobiles on domestic sales in the automobile (two wheeler) industry in India X1 The regression equation to show the influence of domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles on production of two wheeler automobile industry in India: Y= -974160+ 1.226469 (X1)
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The value of R Squared standing at 0.989758 which explains 99% of relation between domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. The computed P-value at 95% confidence level is 3.62E-06 which is less than 0.05. This is the confidence with which the null hypothesis is rejected. This regression equation shows that there is influence of domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. Thus, domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles are a significant factor in production of two wheeler automobile industry.

FINDING 2:Annexure Table 2: Regression analysis of export quantity of two wheeler automobiles on domestic sales in the automobile (two wheeler) industry in India X2 The regression equation to show the influence of export quantity of two wheeler automobiles on production of two wheeler automobile industry in India: Y= -4944717+ 4.351265 (X2)
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The value of R Squared standing at 0.828757 which explains 83% of relation between export quantity of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. The computed P-value at 95% confidence level is

0.004401which is less than 0.05. This is the confidence with which the null hypothesis is rejected. This regression equation shows that there is influence of export quantity of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. Thus, export quantity of two wheeler automobiles is a significant factor in production of two wheeler automobile industry.

FINDING 3:Annexure Table 3: Regression analysis of import quantity of two wheeler automobiles on domestic sales in the automobile (two wheeler) industry in India X3 The regression equation to show the influence of import quantity of two wheeler automobiles on production of two wheeler automobile industry in India: Y= 2779608+ 3.387026 (X3)
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The value of R Squared standing at 0.880594 which explains 88% of relation between import quantity of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. The computed P-value at 95% confidence level is 0.00175 which is less than 0.05. This is the confidence with which the null hypothesis is rejected. This regression equation shows that there is influence of import quantity of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industries in India. Thus, import quantity of two wheeler automobiles is a significant factor in production of two wheeler automobile industry.

FINDING 4:Regression analysis of petrol prices on domestic sales in the automobile (two wheeler) industry in India X4 The regression equation to show the influence of petrol prices on production of two wheeler automobile industry in India: Y= 4448551+55850(X4)
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The value of R Squared standing at 0.77697which explains 77% of relation between petrol prices of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. The computed P-value at 95% confidence level is

0.008708218which is less than 0.05. This is the confidence with which the null hypothesis is rejected. This regression equation shows that there is influence of petrol prices of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. Thus, petrol prices of two wheeler automobiles is a significant factor in production of two wheeler automobile industry.

FINDING 5:Regression analysis of length of roads on domestic sales in the automobile (two wheeler) industry in India X5

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The regression equation to show the influence of length of roads on production of two wheeler automobile industry in India: Y= 2193381.9+1455.9(X5) The value of R Squared standing at 0.9069which explains 90% of relation between length of roads and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. The computed P-value at 95% confidence level is

0.00335013which is less than 0.05. This is the confidence with which the null hypothesis is rejected. This regression equation shows that there is influence of length of roads and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. Thus, length of motor able roads is a significant factor in production of two wheeler automobile industry.

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The Factor which affects the production of two wheeler industry is :DOMESTIC SALES.

The value of R Squared standing at 0.989758 which explains 99% of relation between domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. DOMESTIC SALES IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WHICH AFFECTS THE PRODUCTION OF TWO WHEELER INDUSTRY AT LARGE. From Annexure Table 1,we can show: Regression sales in the automobile (two wheeler)

analysis of production of two wheeler automobiles on domestic industry in India X1 The regression equation to show the influence of domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles on production of two wheeler automobile industry in India: Y= -974160+ 1.226469 (X1) The value of R Squared standing at 0.989758 which explains 99% of relation between domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India.

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The computed P-value at 95% confidence level is 3.62E-06 which is less than 0.05. This is the confidence with which the null hypothesis is rejected. This regression equation shows that there is influence of domestic sales of two wheeler automobiles and production of two wheeler automobile industry in India. Thus, Domestic Sales of Two Wheeler Automobiles are a significant factor in production of Two Wheeler Automobile Industry.

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Conclusion And Discussion :Future scope:At present the industry is enjoying a growth rate of 14-17% per annum, with domestic sales growth at 12.8%. The growth rate is predicted to double by 2015. As it is seen, the total sales of passenger vehicles - cars, utility vehicles and multi-utility vehicles - in the year 2005 reached the mark of 1.06 million. The current growth rate indicates that by 2012 India will overtake Germany and Japan in sales volumes. Financing schemes have become an important factor in the growth of automobile sales. More and more financial schemes are coming up with easy installment plans to lure the customers. Apart from domestic production, the industry is consistently focusing on the automobile exports. The auto component segment is contributing a lot in the export arena. The liberalized policies of the government are now making the companies go for more and more exports. The Indian automobile sector is experiencing changes in every arena. Changes in the looks of the vehicles are taking place; the vehicles are being made more user-friendly.

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Each and every firm is competing to give the customers more customized vehicles with respect to speed, mileage, and maintenance. At present there are many new models entering the Indian market. To name a few, Suzuki Heat 125 and Suzuki Zeus 125X are the two bikes in the motorcycle segment; Kinetic Blaze and Honda DIO in the scooter segment

Limitation:Of late, the two-wheeler industry has been under an analytical microscope with volumes slowing down and even showing a negative growth. Financiers are being more cautious in their lending, leading to greater pressure on volumes. The industry seems to be caught in a negative downturn at the moment but the key question remains is this downturn temporary or is it here to stay? From the financiers perspective, servicing this industry and this customer segment is an operationally intensive exercise, covering locations that fall outside city limits and being dependent on correspondent banking relationships and a robust collection infrastructure. In the case of a downturn, caution enters the equation as financiers look to keep NPAs under control. The customer typically belongs to the lower-middle and middle class. For this segment, aspirations have outpaced
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real income growth leading to a greater propensity to borrow and spend. With rising inflation, this segment has found itself over-leveraged. The hardening of interest rates at such a juncture leads to the customer postponing or deferring a new purchase. This is what has happened to the two-wheeler industry today.

DISCUSSION:The Two-wheeler industry is known for its inherent cyclical feature with 18 months of growth followed by 18 months of de growth. The industry had outperformed the broader market in the latter half of FY06. FY07 was a period of consolidation with the big players capturing a larger market share among their niche segments. Thereon it continued to underperform the broader market with the exception of Q3FY09. BSE Auto Index has seen a fall of >30% in the last quarter and has hit an all time low of 2444 points which has not been seen in the past 4 years. We believe the industry is ready to pick up from a lower base, which keeps its downside capped. Sale volumes of the industry would continue to replicate a seasonal trend. Though the sale volumes have witnessed a decline for more than a year, its revival would be a slow and steady process, which would be delayed on account of the unfavorable macro economic conditions and depressed consumer sentiments. On one hand the slackening growth in the GDP
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and IIP would put pressure on the demand factor, whereas the fall in inflation, input costs and crude prices would ease the cost constraints. We can expect the scenario of FY07 to be repeated, wherein the sales and margin would be inversely co-related. Sector incentives and government policies would forward. Faster increase in sales in rural areas is expected to drive motorcycle growth until 2014-15. Player focus and preference for scooter as a family vehicle will drive relatively high growth in scooter volumes until 2014-15. The growth in exports is likely to be moderate until 2014-15, following the shift in manufacturing facilities for exports to other countries. The two-wheeler industry is likely to continue its growth momentum in 2010-11 and post a growth of 10-11 per cent. Also, operating margins of players are expected to decline in 2010-11 with significant increase in input cost. determine the sector movement going

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Bibliography :(1.)The_Indian_Automotive_Industry.pdf (application/pdf Object) (1) case studies of indian automobile industry two wheeler - Google Search (1) Indian Two-Wheeler Industry: A Perspective (2.) Automobiles Two wheeler industry in India,The Evolution and Structure of the Twomarket development strategy of two wheeler industry - Google Search (2.) 14529638_Industry_Report_Twowheeler.pdf (application/pdf Object) (3.) .market development strategy of two wheleer industry - Google Search (3.) expansion strategy for two wheeler industry - Google Search (4.) demand_sales_forecasting_in_indian_firms.pdf (application/pdf Object) (4.) Honda's Marketing Strategies in India | Marketing Case Studies | Business Marketing Management Cases | Case Study (4.) Commercial Vehicles | Three Wheelers India | Commercial Vehicles India | Three Wheeler Vehicles Bajaj Auto (4.) demand_sales_forecasting_in_indian_firms.pdf (application/pdf Object) (5.) Bajaj_Pulsar_150_UG_IV.pdf (application/pdf Object) (6.) Bajaj Auto Limited's Business Strategy - From Market Leader to Follower | Business Strategy Case Studies | Case Study in Business, Management (6.) Business Line : Features / BrandLine News (6.) product line of two wheeler industry - Google Search (7.) Automobile industry in India,Automotive Competitiveness and Investment Scheme in Bajaj (7.) A study on consumer behaviour towards bajaj pulsar 150 cc in hassan city (8.) case studies of indian automobile two wheeler - Google Search (8.) threats faced by the indian two wheeler industry - Google Search (8.) Challenges Before Indian Automobile Industry | Economy Watch Two Wheeler Market in India (8.) Challenges Before Indian Automobile Industry | Economy Watch (8.) Two-wheeler industry: Facing a crisis? - The Economic Times 69 | P a g e

Study on Macro Economics on the Two Wheeler Dealer Industry in Udupi and Manipa1 (9.) Bajaj_Pulsar_150_UG_IV.pdf (application/pdf Object) (9.) Bajaj Auto Limited's Business Strategy - From Market Leader to Follower | Business Strategy Case Studies | Case Study in Business, Management (9.) expansion strategy for two wheeler industry - Google Search (10) Challenges Before Indian Automobile Industry | Economy Watch Two Wheeler Market in India (10) Challenges Before Indian Automobile Industry | Economy Watch (11) Hero Honda Investors Events (11 ) Marketing Srategy of Two Wheeler Segment in Automobile Industry, A Study on Bajaj and Hero Honda - Skyline College (11) Marketing Strategies of Honda - In India - Simplified Case Studies (11) A comparison study on the top three two wheeler companies in india (11) Marketing Case Studies | Marketing Management | Operations | Strategy | Business | Case Study (11) Marketing Srategy of Two Wheeler Segment in Automobile Industry, A Study on Bajaj and Hero Honda - Skyline College (12) swot analysis of bajaj - Google Search (12) swot analysis - Google Search (13) threats faced by the indian two wheeler industry - Google Search (13) Challenges Before Indian Automobile Industry | Economy Watch Two Wheeler Market in India (13) Challenges Before Indian Automobile Industry | Economy Watch (13) Two-wheeler industry: Facing a crisis? - The Economic Times

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Annexure DATA(2003-2009)
production (y) domestic sales(x1) export quantity( x2) Petrol import prices quantity(x $billion 3) (x4)
907,968 1,178,354 1,264,000 1,473,000 1,713,479 1,846,051 2,166,238
30.15 35.03 48.08 64.51 72.62 90.76 89.42

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 length of the roads(x 5) 2600.6 2712.5 3929.4 4003.9 4140.5 4263.4 4383.7

5,622,741 6,529,829 7,608,697 8,466,666 8,026,681 8,419,792 10,512,889

5,364,249 6,209,765 7,052,391 7,872,334 7,249,278 7,437,619 9,371,231

265,052 366,407 513,169 619,644 819,713 1,004,174 1,140,184

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DOMESTIC SALES
Domestic sales SOURCE:SIDDHARTHA SHUKLA SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics 0.99486 Multiple R 6 0.98975 R Square 8 Adjusted R Square 0.98771 172818. Standard Error 3 Observations 7 ANOVA Df Regression Residual Total SS 1 1.44E+13 5 1.49E+11 6 1.46E+13 Coefficie nts Intercept X Variable 1 -974160 1.22646 9 Standard Error 408229.1 0.055794 MS 1.44E+ 13 2.99E+ 10 F 483.20 64 Significa nce F 3.62E-06

t Stat 2.3863 1 21.981 96

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95% 75226. 86 1.3698 93

Lower 95.0% 202354 6 1.08304 5

0.0626 74 -2023546 3.62E06 1.083045

RESIDUAL OUTPUT Predicte dY

Observation

Residuals

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7

5604924 6641922 7675377 8681011 7916853 8147847 1051936 1

17817.38 -112093 -66679.8 -214345 109828.4 271945.1 -6472.38

EXPORT QUANTITY
Export quantity Source:siddhartha shukla SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics 0.91036 Multiple R 1 0.82875 R Square 7 Adjusted R 0.79450 Square 8 706664. Standard Error 1 Observations 7 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total SS 1 1.21E+13 5 2.5E+12 6 1.46E+13 MS 1.21E+ 13 4.99E+ 11 F 24.198 25 Significa nce F 0.004401

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Coefficie nts Intercept X Variable 1 4944717 4.35126 5

Standard Error 654476.7 0.884552

t Stat P-value 7.5552 0.0006 22 44 4.9191 0.0044 72 01

Lower 95% 3262331 2.077451

Upper 95% 66271 03 6.6250 79

Lower 95.0% 326233 1 2.07745 1

U 9 6

RESIDUAL OUTPUT Predicte dY 6098029 6539051 7177652 7640953 8511506 9314145 9905960

Observation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Residuals -475288 -9222.27 431045.3 825713.4 -484825 -894353 606928.8

IMPORT QUANTITY
Source:Siddhartha Shukla SUMMARY OUTPUT import quantity Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.9384 0.88059 R Square 4 Adjusted R 0.85671 Square 3 590090. Standard Error 8 Observations 7 ANOVA

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df Regression Residual Total

SS 1 1.28E+13 5 1.74E+12 6 1.46E+13

MS 1.28E +13 3.48E +11

F 36.874 07

Significanc eF 0.00175

Coefficie nts Intercept X Variable 1 2779608 3.38702 6

Standard Error 869658 0.557774

t Stat 3.196 2 6.072 4

Pvalue 0.0240 9 0.0017 5

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

544081.2 1.953223

Lower 95.0% Upper 9 544081. 5015135 2 1.95322 4 4.820828 3

RESIDUAL OUTPUT Predicte dY 5854919 6770723 7060809 7768697 8583205 9032230 1011671 2

Observation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Residuals -232178 -240894 547888.5 697969.1 -556524 -612438 396177.3

PETROL PRICES:SourceSiddhartha shukla SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard

Statistics 0.881463932 0.776978663 0.732374395 806454.0769

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Error Observations ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

1 5 6

SS 1.1329 E+13 3.2518 4E+12 1.4580 9E+13 Stand ard Error 87772 9.4097 13381. 61895

MS 1.1329E+13 6.50368E+11

F 17.419379 52

Significance F

0.008708218

Coefficients Intercept X Variable 1 4448551.373 55850.23432

t Stat 5.068249193 4.173653018

P-value 0.0038728 08 0.0087082 18

Lower 95%

2192276.096

21451.68773

Length of Roads: Source:Siddhartha shukla SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics 0.952361 Multiple R 144 0.906991 R Square 749

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Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations ANOVA

0.883739 686 389283.2 317 6

df Regression Residual Total 1 4 5 Coefficien ts Intercept X Variable 1 2193381. 919 1455.597 127

SS 5.91117E+1 2 6.06166E+1 1 6.51733E+1 2 Standard Error 855859.427 5 233.061353 8

MS 5.91117 E+12 1.51541 E+11

F 39.0069 371

Significa nce F 0.003350 134

t Stat 2.56278 2916 6.24555 3386

P-value 0.06245 38 0.00335 013

Lower 95% 182864.7 99 808.5150 724

Upper 95% 4569628. 637 2102.679 182

CORRELATION
Source:- Siddhartha Shukla
year 2003 2004 production(y ) domestic sales(x1) export quantity(x2) import quantity(x3)
907,968 1,178,354

5,622,741 6,529,829

5,364,249 6,209,765

265,052 366,407

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

7,608,697 8,466,666 8,026,681 8,419,792 10,512,889

7,052,391 7,872,334 7,249,278 7,437,619 9,371,231

Column 1

513,169 619,644 819,713 1,004,174 1,140,184

Column 2 1

1,264,000 1,473,000 1,713,479 1,846,051 2,166,238

Column 1 Column 2

1 0.994866037

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