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Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast: March 8, 2013
Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast: March 8, 2013
Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast: March 8, 2013
March 8, 2013
1
Agenda
Forecast overview and model structure Key assumptions
Demographic factors Economic trends
Historical data Current demographics National forecast Demographic trends Expert review
-12%
10 8 6
Statewide (-15%) : 2007 California forecast = 59.5 million 2013 California forecast = 50.4 million
-17%
4
-19% - 5%
-12%
2 0
-16%
6%
5
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (County): State and County Total Population Projections, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, January 2013.
2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Actual Population
Note: Boxes represents range of forecast predictions. For example, SANDAG has provided a projection for 2005 since Series 4 through Series 11. The lowest projection was 2.8 million. The highest projection was 3.3 million. The average projection was just over 3 million. The actual population in 2005 was just over 3 million as well.
Result
4,000,000
3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000
2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units
4,068,759
1,491,189 1,000,000
500,000
0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Result
Components of Change
80,000 60,000 40,000
San Diego Population
1980 Births
1990 Deaths
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Domestic Migrants
International Migrants
Annual Rate of Change 0.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Pop Change
Assumption
Fertility Rates
4.0 3.5 3.0 Total Fertility Rate 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1980* 1990 2000 2010 2015 2050
0.0 Hispanic White Black Amer. Indian Asian Haw. & Pac. Isl. Other 2 or More
Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1980 data is U.S. rate from CDC) Projection assumption: Return to pre-recession (2006) birth rates by 2015. White rate constant 2015-50, other rates converge by 40% to white rate by 2050.
10
Assumption
Life Expectancy
100
90
80 Life Expectancy (Years)
70
60
50
40 30 20 10 0 Hispanic Male White Male Black Male Asian Male 1990* 2010 Hispanic Female 2050 2050-US White Female Black Female Asian Female
Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1990 data for Asian reflects a composite of all Asian/other records) Projection assumption: Life expectancies updated to reflect 2012 Census projections (except where San Diego base year and future assumptions were higher than national average)
11
Assumption
Asian, 25%
Hispanic, 49%
Historical source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey and 2011 American Community Survey persons Foreign born; Entered 2000 or later Projection assumption: Held constant.
12
Assumption
Estimated Outflow
14,673
11,234 6,926
Origin County
Los Angeles (CA) Orange (CA)
Estimated Inflow
16,330 9,321
Riverside (CA)
San Bernardino (CA) Maricopa (AZ) Santa Clara (CA) Clark (NV) Honolulu (HI) Ventura (CA)
8,709
4,203 4,156 3,640 2,200 2,167 2,137
Maricopa (AZ)
San Bernardino (CA)
6,693
3,870
Clark (NV)
San Francisco (CA) Alameda (CA)
2,420
2,313 2,246
Pima (AZ)
Santa Clara (CA)
2,164
2,101
Imperial (CA)
1,874
13
Source: American Community Survey, 2005-2009
Male
Female
Male 2010 Female 2010 Male 2050 Female 2050
100,000
0
Population
100,000
200,000
14
Result
Race/Ethnicity
Other Races 1% Asian 11%
2 or More Races 3%
Black 5%
White 48%
Black 4%
White 30%
2010
2050
15
Assumption
16
Result
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
17
Comparison/Result
United States
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
18
Result
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
19
Input/Result
4%
2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Historical source: California Employment Development Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Projection assumption: Job growth is the sum of individual industry sector projections
20
6%
4%
2%
0% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Historical source: California Employment Development Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Projection assumption: Net result of labor force and employed residents
21
Result
Historical source: QCEW California Employment Development Dept. (annual average) Projection assumption: Each industrys jobs forecast is driven by US job growth by industry and a local market index
22
Result
2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units
4,068,759
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
23
April 2013
Sub-regional forecast runs Preliminary sub-regional forecast results for TWG review
Summer 2013
Result
2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units
4,068,759
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
25