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Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
ca
Is it sustainable? T hats f or others to decide, but we need to understand that the rise in OAS costs will require an additional 0.73% of GDP, not a tripling in the ef f ective cost as the rise f rom $36B to $108B given is meant to have you conclude. Finally, should Canadian workers have to work until age 67? Is that good public policy? Clearly, we need to do something about the rapidly rising dependency ratios as we head to the date where some projections indicate that if nothing is done there might only be two workers f or each retiree. But the reality is that the average Canadian worker today retires at age 62, not at age 65. T here is strong research that shows that if we could induce every worker to stay in the labour f orce until age 65 (65 not 67) that these dependency ratio issues would evaporate. So, working to age 67 is not necessary and may not be good public policy. Raising the average retirement age is good public policy and raising the eligibility age f or OAS is worthy of public debate. But, this debate should be based on relevant and meaningf ul f acts not misleading impressions. Robert L. Brown is an expert advisor with EvidenceNetwork.ca and a Fellow with the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. He was Professor of Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo for 39 years and a past president of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.