Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Sugar sector controls lifted, but with riders
The government on Thursday decontrolled the sugar sector, but with certain riders, which the food minister K V Thomas claimed would not have impact on retail prices in the open market. The cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) chaired by prime minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday took the crucial decision in line with the recommendations made by a panel headed by C Rangarajan to bring about stability in the country. Thomas told reporters that the government would pay the difference between the ex-mill price and the public distribution price to the mills that may involve an outgo of Rs 5,300 crore in a year to the exchequer. However, there would be no hike in the excise duty as proposed by the Rangarajan committee to make up for the Rs 5,300 crore outgo. The excise duty is Rs 95 per quintal at present. With Thursdays decision, the mills are likely to gain in a big way, as there will be no levy obligation on them for two years. At present, sugar mills have to provide 10 per cent of the production as levy sugar at less than the market price for public distribution system (PDS). (Source: Financial Chronicle)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on April 04, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18510 5575 54.89 93.26 1552

-1.55 -1.73 0.66 -1.26 -0.06

-1.04 -1.18 0.75 -3.20 -2.76

-2.16 -2.53 -0.03 2.85 -1.28

5.90 4.83 8.05 -11.38 -7.49

.Source: Reuters

Indonesian Palm oil exports rise to a 5 yr high

Palm oil exports from Indonesia, the worlds largest producer, jumped to the highest level in at least 5 yrs in Feb after China & Pakistan boosted purchases to benefit from a slump in prices. Shipments including palm & kernel oil gained 9.1% to 2.04 million tones according to data from Indonesian Palm oil Association. (Source: Business Line)

Vietnam ups 2013 rice export target to 8 mln tonnes

Vietnam has raised its rice export target for 2013 to 8 million tonnes, matching a record level last year, state-run radio said on Friday, up from an earlier goal of 7.5 million to 7.6 million tonnes. Stronger-thanexpected supply from Vietnam could help keep a lid on Asian rice prices, with Thailand planning to sell part of its huge stocks on the market this year. Vietnam shipped a record 8.02 million tonnes of rice in 2012, retaining its position as the world's second-biggest exporter. (Full Story) The Southeast Asian country will look to export 2.2 million tonnes of the grain in the three months ending June, Truong Thanh Phong, chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, was quoted (Source: Reuters)

Basmati exports up 10% in FY13

Increasing acceptability for Indian basmati rice in the international markets has resulted in a 10 per cent rise in exports of the commodity (in volume terms) in 201213; realisations increased 30 per cent. Exporters are confident of a stellar show this financial year, too. The exporters lobby is confident of selling higher volumes this year, owing to the new highyield variety, Pusa 1509. Vijay Setia, a leading exporter from Haryana, said in 2012- 13, supplies fell short of demand. The Pusa 1509 variety was likely to help basmati exporters meet the increasing export demand in the coming years, he added. The Pusa 1509 variety, developed by Punjab Agricultureal University, Ludhiana, is a shortduration crop. Its seeds cost 100 akg, compared with 50 a kg for the Pusa 1121 variety; its projected yield is six tonnes a hectare, against Pusa 1121 s four tonnes. Besides better acreage, the new variety would help save irrigation costs, as a short- duration crop exerts less pressure on water and soil health. (Source: Business Standard)

India could cut floor price for private wheat exports - govt sources
India is considering lowering the floor price for wheat sales to private traders for export from state warehouses, government sources said, to kick-start shipments by this route as global prices hover near nine-month lows and stocks pile up. One suggestion is to lower the price to 13,500 rupees ($246)a tonne from 14,800 rupees plus taxes, said one government source directly involved in the decision making process. Two other sources confirmed the government was considering the move, which traders said could make prices competitive. The government last month offered private traders up to 5 million tonnes of wheat for export from government warehouses which are overflowing, but its floor price was seen as too steep by private traders. (Source: Reuters)

Coffee exports down 10% at 3.1 lakh tonnes

Indias coffee exports during 2012-13 fiscal slipped below last years record level by 10% to 3,10,612 tn due to weak global prices and sluggish domestic stocks. According to Coffee Board, exports had touched an alltime high of 3,44,356 tn in the previous financial year as rising prices prompted traders to sell even their old stock. The performance of coffee exports in 2012-13 has been fairly good. We have crossed our target of 2.90 lakh tn. Yes, exports have slightly lowered compared to the record 2011-12 level, a senior Coffee Board official told PTI. According to the board, coffee shipments during the 2012-13 fiscal dropped in value terms also to Rs 4,737.02 crore compared with Rs 4,836.98 in the previous year. However, the export realisation remained slightly higher at Rs 1,52,506 per tonne against Rs 1,40,464 per tonne. (Source: Business Line)

Sugar suppliers in high stakes battle as prices slump

Top sugar exporters Brazil and Thailand are raising production to cut costs in an effective price war, aggravating an already heavily oversupplied global market as values slide to the lowest levels in over 21/2 years. Farmers have increased cane plantings in the centre-south of Brazil, the world's top sugar producer and exporter, to enable mills to operate at maximum capacity utilisation, traders said. Mills in Thailand, the number 2 sugar exporter, have invested in additional capacity and crushed cane as quickly as possible this season to cut costs. (Source: Reuters)

Monsoon may run into Indian Ocean hurdle, says Japanese agency
The South-West Monsoon for 2013 may get tacit support from an indifferent Pacific in the distance but may have to contend with whims of its own waters in the neighbourhood. Equatorial Pacific is expected to remain in a neutral phase, with no El Nino or La Nina evolving. Regional Institute for Climate Change at Tokyo is of the view that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is like to spring up in the Indian Ocean this summer, which can affect monsoon prospects here. RIGC is a research centre under the Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the anomalous warming of East Indian Ocean relative to the West, which in the past has hit the performance of a concurrent Indian monsoon. But the rain outlook for June-July-August put out by RIGC does not show a major departure from the normal, except along the west coast and adjoining central India (west Madhya

Corn faces biggest weekly loss in 21 months, soy eases

Chicago corn edged lower on Friday, falling for five out of six sessions and on track for its biggest weekly loss in 21 months, with the market remaining under pressure after a U.S. government report last week showed higher stockpiles than expected. Wheat eased in sympathy with corn but the market has managed to tick higher this week, with expectations of strong demand and concerns over crop-weather in parts of Europe and the United States underpinning prices.The corn market, which suffered its biggest-ever two-day decline this week, could get some support from a rebound in exports, analysts said. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana spot remained under downside pressure on Thursday on account of arrival pressure. However, Good demand from stockists coupled with domestic demand ahead of the wedding season has cushion sharp fall in the Chana prices. April futures witnessed short coverings and settled 0.21% higher. Arrivals have gained momentum across India and are expected to gain further in the coming weeks. The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31, 2014. According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of Kabuli chana, organic pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000 metric tonnes per annum.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3438 3419 Prev day -0.51 0.21

as on April 04, 2013 % change WoW MoM 4.91 -0.52 2.55 3.36 YoY -0.93 -4.60

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Chana Sowing
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.

Production
According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 05, 2013 Resistance 3495-3520

3430-3450

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana prices are expected to remain sideways today. Higher arrival pressure is expected to keep prices under downside pressure, however, strong buying by the stockists at lower levels coupled with wedding season demand may support the prices at lower levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a flat note as higher supplies pressurized prices. However, strong hopes of decontrol supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as the futures settled unchanged on Thursday. Lower output figures during October March 2013 supported the prices at lower levels. The Government, yesterday, cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs will take up the issue of sugar decontrol during its meeting on Thursday, according to Union Minister of State for Food and Consumer Affairs K.V. Thomas. Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of 70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committee report has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and having a stable export and import policy.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3050

as on April 04, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.00 0.55 MoM -3.61 YoY 5.83

Rs/qtl

2946

0.00

1.83

-1.64

6.43

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 504.4 392.67

as on April 05, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.10 0.97 0.22 0.06 MoM -1.85 -1.34 YoY -20.52 -27.13

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX April contract

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane.

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. Indian sugar mills produced 21.05 mn tn of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 15, down 1% from a year ago. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 05, 2013 Resistance 3030-3050

Global Sugar Updates

Raw sugar Futures on ICE recovered from lower levels and settled 0.97% higher on Thursday on hopes that monetary stimulus in Japan will trigger buying. However, commencement of harvest in Brazil coupled with expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have pressurized prices. Prices are trading around 2 year lows According to FO Litch, Brazil's center-south sugar production is expected to reach 36.2 million tonnes in 2013/14, up from 34.1 million tonnes in the previous season. The main adjustment on the production side is the increase in CS Brazil output following a successful end to the crushing season at a new record high of 34.1 million tonnes.

2960-2980

Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to trade on a positive to bullish note today on announcement of decontrol of the sugar sector by the government. Emergence of demand from the bulk manufacturers may also support the prices at lower levels. However, higher levy quota coupled with need based demand may cap sharp gains.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean continued to trade on a bullish note on account
of lower supplies in the domestic markets and hit the upper circuit breaker. The spot as well as the futures settled 2.16% and 4.01% higher on Thursday. Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3931 3934 714 716 Prev day 2.16 4.01 1.09 1.60

as on April 04, 2013

WoW 4.91 5.70 2.99 3.19

MoM 15.41 19.00 4.22 5.70

YoY 27.88 27.63 -4.55 -5.20

International Markets
Soybean Futures on CBOT declined by 0.6% on Thursday on concerns from China due to the outbreak of bird flu in China. However, higher weekly export sales data supported prices at lower levels. Larger than expected stocks released by the USDA also added to the downside pressure. Stocks were reported at 999 mn bushels against expectations of 905 mn bushels. US soybean plantings intentions for the 2013/14 crop year was reported at 77.126 mn acres, below market forecasts for 78.394 mn acres. According to the trade ministry, Brazils March exports were reported at 3.54 mn tn as against 0.96 mn tn in February, but lower than 4.24 mn tn in March last year. Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to 78.457 million acres, from 78.777 million in January, but it is still up from the 77.198 mn acres seeded to soy in 2012. China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5 mn tn, lower than market expectations of about 5 mn tn, due to severe port congestion in Brazil that has delayed shipments.

Source: Reuters

as on April 04, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1372 48.55 Prev day -0.60 -1.22 WoW -2.33 -3.11 MoM -7.93 -3.00 YoY -3.35 -13.33

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on April 04, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.21 0.74 -0.25 1.95

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Mar '13 Futures

Last 2366 465.1

MoM -1.42 1.33

YoY -34.09 -24.28

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO settled 1.6% and
0.74% higher respectively on Thursday tracking positive domestic edible oil markets. India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes. According to Dorab Mistry, Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tons by the end of May due to weaker production and falling trend in palm oil inventories. By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn. Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures gained 1.1% extending previous days gains tracking positive edible oil markets. However, increasing arrival pressure of new crop pressurized prices at higher level. Higher output expectations exerted downside pressure on the prices at higher levels. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3480 3496 Prev day 0.34 1.10 WoW 1.38 0.89

as on April 04, 2013 MoM -2.64 3.92

Source: Reuters

YoY -10.13 -10.17

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX April contract

Outlook
Soybean prices are expected to trade higher on account of lower supplies in the domestic markets. However, Supplies from Latin American region coupled with higher stocks in the US may pressurize prices. Mustard seed is also expected to remain in the positive zone due to positive edible oil markets while higher arrivals may cap sharp upside. Soy oil and CPO is expected to trade higher on account of positive domestic edible oil pack. Additionally, lower output due to seasonally lower yield may support prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 05, 2013 Support 689-694 3780-3840 3500-3530 457-461 Resistance 704-709 3950-4015 3575-3605 468-471

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a positive note yesterday on account of low stocks coupled with robust demand for the Kerala crop. However, higher supplies from Karnataka capped sharp upside. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies have supported the prices. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from Mangalore port have been reported. However, exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.36% lower while the Futures settled 0.73% higher on Thursday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,950/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36313 35925 % Change Prev day -0.36 0.73

as on April 04, 2013 WoW 0.00 0.18 MoM -5.00 -2.27 YoY -4.64 -4.90

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX April contract

Exports and Imports

Indias pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonnes while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013.. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 05, 2013 Support 35310-35630 Resistance 36130-36330

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 35 tonnes while off takes were reported at 33 tonnes on Thursday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala are already complete.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a mixed note. Low stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels. However, higher supplies of pepper from Karnataka may pressurize the prices at higher levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera futures traded higher yesterday hitting the 2% upper circuit on account of fresh export enquiries coupled with expectations on pickup in demand ahead of the wedding season However, higher arrivals of the new crop pressurized prices in the spot. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 30,000 bags/ day. New crop from Rajasthan has also hit the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. The spot settled 0.12% while the Futures settled 1.53% higher on Thursday. According to markets sources the exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13413 13303 Prev day -0.12 1.53

as on April 04, 2013 % Change WoW 0.52 2.19 MoM -0.54 3.26 YoY 7.92 11.41

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 35,000 tn on Thursday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tn as compared to 2,369 tn in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.48 -0.06

as on April 04, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6395 6490

WoW -0.29 0.62

MoM 18.11 5.12

YoY 76.39 68.05

Outlook
Jeera Futures are expected to trade higher in the intraday on account of good overseas as well as domestic demand while higher arrivals of the new crop may cap sharp upside. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a flat note. Bargain buying at lower levels coupled with fresh overseas demand to a rise in the prices earlier this week. Lower output also supported prices at lower levels. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. However, higher supplies of the new crop coupled with huge carryover stocks have pressurized prices at higher levels. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.48% and 0.06% lower on Thursday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals Nizamabad mandi stood at 18,000 bags on Thursday. Erode will remain closed for 10 days on account of Mariamman festival. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note today. Fresh export demand coupled with demand from stockists may also support prices. Crop damage and lower output concerns may also help to push up the prices However, higher supplies of the fresh crop coupled with huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices from higher levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 05, 2013

Support 13190-13400 6410-6390 Resistance 13700-13890 6640-6700

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton settled 0.27% and 0.1% higher on Thursday. Lower availability coupled with expectations of good export demand from China in the coming days has supported the prices at lower levels. Lower planting intentions data from US also supported prices. However, reports that state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies pressurized the prices. Cotton Corp of India has sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell 3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 941.5 19260

as on April 04, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.27 0.80 0.10 2.88 MoM -2.08 2.88 YoY #N/A 9.00

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 88.33 95.7

as on April 04, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.00 -0.15 0.21 0.95 MoM 5.56 4.70 YoY -4.65 -6.91

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
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Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures corrected on Thursday by 1% on the back of export sales data. Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a sharp decline last week. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note with a positive bias after US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low. Expectations of good export demand may also support prices. However, sharp upside maybe capped as supplies may increase in the open market. Global macroeconomic worries may also add to the downside pressure.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 05, 2013 Support 920-930 18990-19110 Resistance 950-960 19340-19440

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