WebRTC: Overview, Status & Forecast

An extract of Disruptive Analysis groundbreaking new research report on WebRTC More detail available for report purchasers/subscribers

April 4th 2013

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

About Disruptive Analysis

London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Covers mobile, voice, service provider technology Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & WebRTC since June 2011 Published report on Telco-OTT Strategies, Feb 2012 **New** Report on WebRTC, Published Feb 2013
see http://disruptive-analysis.com/webrtc.htm

Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Remember these? Video & IM move to web

Many previous standalone functions are now integrated with web pages
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Coming next: voice, video, data in browser

(Yes, you can sort-of do it with plug-ins and Flash already.... But its not very good) Concept: a simple set of Javascript APIs so web devs can use it without fuss Complexities of codecs, media engine, firewall traversal etc all sorted
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

What is WebRTC & why does it matter?

In-browser comms, realtime web Catalysed by Google & open-sourcing of GIPS engine W3C WebRTC = API & IETF RTCWeb = protocols In theory no separate apps or plug-ins Aimed at allowing developers to add voice/video etc easily Part of HTML5 & based on Javascript Better than Flash for RTC 3 main APIs

1. GetUserMedia (camera and microphone access) 2. PeerConnection (sending and receiving media) 3. DataChannels (sending non-media direct between browsers) Also ties in with Websocket IP connections

W3C Last Call Working Draft expected in Q3 2013. Specification is likely to be standardized in 2014
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Apr 2013

For the technically-minded....

WebRTC is a set of 3 W3C JavaScript APIs on top of... RTCWeb, which is IETFs on-the-wire protocol standard Google open-sourced GIPS media engine for WebRTC Standards debates: codecs (VP8/H264) & API flexibility
GetUserMedia Yes Yes PeerConnection Yes Yes, but not default DataChannels Developer builds Yes, but not default

Yes
Unknown if/when

Timing unclear
Unknown if/when

Timing Unclear
Unknown if/when

Disruptive Analysis expects IE & Safari to start supporting WebRTC by end-2013. Neither auto-updates: there will remain a large non-supporting base for some time
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

WebRTC implementation: fixed & mobile

Most WebRTC on PCs will be inside the browser

On mobile, its much more complicated

Native browser Natively in OS 2nd browser 3rd party SDK

WebRTC is one area that is definitely not mobile-first. PCs about 18 months ahead
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Device base supporting WebRTC

4000 3500 Tablets Smartphones PCs

3000

Million

2500
2000 1500 1000 500

Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report, Feb 2013 Definitions & methodology in report - See disruptivewireless.blogspot.com for details

WebRTC base will grow rapidly, catalysed by auto-updated Chrome & Firefox browsers
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Voice/video moving from service to function

Service
e.g. SMS, Telephony

Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference

Feature
e.g. Business social

Function

WebRTC? But weve had VoIP apps for years!

Most VoIP apps are standalone calling tools Contextual / in-app opportunity slow & fragmented Complexity for developers

X-Platform hassles Rocket-science for SIP, acoustics etc Immaturity of voice/telephony APIs Telephony model inflexible

WebRTC fit with HTML5/apps should enable beyond the call voice & video with less heavy lifting Similar to Flash video replacing Real for in-browser streaming Plus cool new stuff like realtime data Mashups + comms may shift shape of the curve
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Apr 2013

Voice Telephony
Past: 2G / 3G / PSTN / UC
Voice Voice Telephony

Future: WebRTC, apps, APIs, 4G

Telephony Gaming, CEBP, surveillance, social voice, TV voice etc

Voicemail Conferencing PTT

Video, context, sense Expect a shift away from standalone to contexualised communications
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Video

Apr 2013

Only a slight exaggeration:

Phone calls are 120 years old

The call is reaching obsolescence

Poor fit with real human behaviour WebRTC & mobile apps enable better, but fragmented communications
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

WebRTC key use cases

Browser-to-browser (or web-app) comms Browser-to-Telco VoIP/IMS/3TelcoOTT IMS Browser-to-Telco CS / PSTN Browser-to-UC or IP-PBX

Browser-towebserver Web

Browser-to-contact centre

Browser/app conferencing

Verticals

Healthcare Plus: M2M, gaming, TV-based, data-centric & various others

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What use-cases lead?

Existing web services Adding real-time comms capabilities Existing realtime comms services

Extending via the web, blending web capabilities

Apr 2013

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Developer world is fragmented

VoIP & Video devs

Mobile App devs

WebRTC is trying to please all the people, all the time

Corp IT devs

Web devs

Apr 2013

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WebRTC is a 3-legged (& therefore stable) stool

WebRTC
Enterprise Telco Consumer Can survive even if one of the legs takes too long: especially as each area has 3-5 major subsets

Enterprise

Telco

Consumer

Apr 2013

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Enterprise benefits of WebRTC as platform

Many use-cases & angles

Your website becomes your call centre New models for customer interaction (eg contextual support via video) Browser becomes flexible/updateable softphone Easier federation / interconnect between companies Slick web-based conferencing, inc. easier integration with web tools like LinkedIn & DropBox Easier 2-way comms within mobile apps Various new possibilities with realtime data sharing

Dont just think about WebRTC in terms of todays telephony Think more adding comms to any company website or app
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Apr 2013

Enterprises? Never mind BYO Device.....

How about BYO voice? Or BYO messaging & UC? Or BYO conferencing? Or BYO contact centre?

Voice & video comms about to be democratised Traditional enterprise teams needs to understand/exploit Or else the web & users will do it independently
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Apr 2013

For telcos, its all looking pretty grim anyway

Downsides Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation Regulation & competitive impacts Weak content & VAS propositions Economic pressures Ecosystem competition

Upsides Connecting the last unconnected Smartphones & data growth Better segmentation, pricing & promotion Innovative services & enablers Embracing & exploiting fragmentation
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For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst

Now

With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speed

Feb 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Voice & messaging go in-context

Telephony and messaging is increasingly done incontext or in-app. But in many cases, telco APIs dont offer the right raw ingredients or business model.
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Fragmentation is valuable

Convergence & standards

Fragmentation & innovation

It will fragment because it can. Consumer need for ubiquity is over-rated

new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient. They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst. Ubiquity is dead.
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Telcos developing digital services arms

Many operators have business units developing their own Telco-OTT services. WebRTC can help time-to-market, functionality & ease of development
March 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 23

Key success factors for Telco-OTT/WebRTC

Organisation & governance

Managing cannibalisation

Network awareness

Design
March 2013

Software mindset
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Synergies
24

Multiple telco angles/oppos for using WebRTC

Enterprise VoIP / UC / conferencing moving to WebRTC Ground-up interest in WebRTC (in labs etc)

Telco-OTT reach improved by WebRTC

Extension of IMS / RCS / VoLTE over WebRTC

Telco WebRTC interest

Apps, developer & HTML5 initiatives adding WebRTC

+ Policy / broadband teams: Can we detect / block / bill for it? Regulatory: What does this mean, how do we do 911 etc?
IMS extension currently loudest Telco/WebRTC domain, but not necessarily most important. Execs should ensure it is exploited across the organisation
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Key question: New ecosystem battleground?

+ growing vendor support

Traditional comms tools & services in the crossfire?

Microsoft CU-RTC-WEB

WebRTC or not?

Apple & Microsoft not yet aligned will they use WebRTC as a way to fight Google? If so, will telcos and classical voice networks be collateral damage?
Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Use-case summary: WebRTC exploitation factors

Calling WebRTC-Only Control over users Risk Appetite End-to-end control PSTN integration Device diversity expected Direction of comms Novelty value Organisational issues Business model clarity Geek factor Wealthy users only? Broadband requirements Target platform diversity Behaviour change needed Legacy integration problems Importance of UI/UX Person-to-person, or A2P? Litigation/regulatory risks Competitive threats Incumbency obstacles Contact centres UC Conferencing IMS extension Social Telco-OTT

Source: Disruptive Analysis, Feb 2013 Factor descriptions/detail in full report: See disruptive-analysis.com
Apr 2013

Favourable

Moderate

Challenging Difficult

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Conclusion

WebRTC is real and here now Still very new but evolving at super-speed

Standards issues, mobile & even MS/Apple worked around

Supported by almost all big names from comms & Web

Buzz from incumbents, startups, investors; few dissenters

Browser support on PCs fairly fast, mobile more patchy Multiple use-cases

Enterprise Telco Consumer web Niche / vertical / disruptive plays

Use-cases with many moving parts will take longer

So start now!
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Apr 2013

www.disruptive-analysis.com WebRTC report details disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
+44 (0) 7941 100016 Skype: disruptiveanalysis

Apr 2013

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